In Plain Sight: The true secret to Texas A&M's 2015 success

A climber who’s made it halfway up Mount Everest still has about 15,000 feet to go.

That’s a tall challenge, but at least the climber knows what it will take to reach the goal.

Football doesn’t always offer such finite parameters.

For example, everyone knows Texas A&M’s defense must improve for the Aggies to ascend to the top of the Southeastern Conference standings — but just how much improvement is required to reach the SEC summit is uncertain.

A&M was ranked a ghastly 102nd in the nation in total defense last season. Woof.

The Aggies figure to make strides under the direction of John Chavis, who is among the country’s elite in his field — at any level of football. But Chavis is known as “Chief,” not "the miracle worker." It’s reasonable to expect the Aggies to be better on defense, but how much better?

It would seem reasonable to hope A&M can improve by 20 spots in total defense. However, a defense ranked 82nd is hardly “Wrecking Crew” worthy.

Hawaii was ranked 82nd in total defense last year. The Warriors finished 4-9. That’s predictable, right?

Teams that struggle on defense cannot hope to contend for championships. After all, the old cliché states offense wins games and defense wins championships; clichés are clichés because there’s typically a measure of truth to them.

Yet, that one doesn’t necessarily apply anymore.

Actually, most champions of the “power five” college football conferences did not field strong defensive units in 2014.

Pac-12 winner Oregon, which reached the national championship game, was ranked 87th in the nation in total defense.

ACC champ Florida State, which reached the College Football Playoff, was ranked 61st in total defense.

Baylor, which would have been regarded as the conference winner if the Big 12 indeed had crowned “one true champion,” was ranked just 50th.

Yet, they all compensated for deficient defenses with high-scoring offenses.

No doubt, some would argue the SEC is a more powerful league and therefore its champion must play strong defense. Yet, in 2010 Auburn won the SEC championship — and the national title — despite allowing 368.3 yards per game to rank 60th nationally in total defense.

Three years later, Auburn again won the SEC and came within seconds of another national championship despite ranking 87th.

Perhaps Texas A&M can do that, too.

In 2014 the Aggies averaged 455.4 yards per game to rank 30th in the nation in total offense. They did that despite using two quarterbacks who were in their first year as starters, having three receivers in their first year of major college football and working with an offensive line that struggled with injuries.

Offensive Coordinator Jake Spavital has already said he expects this season’s offense to be substantially more productive than last year’s. He said he expects A&M’s offense to rank among the top 12 in the nation.

“I like where this offense is now,” Spavital said last month. “I’m always am going to be confident with the kids because I know we have the talent in the room to attain that goal.

"We’ve still got some in-house cleaning in making sure we get everybody on board and eliminate some of the problems, which we have, and just address the problems we had last year and make sure we have the right mindset going forward. But I do feel confident in these kids and the direction they’re going to take this thing.”

Of course, there are new standards for each new season. As investment managers always warn: “Past performances do not guarantee future results.”

But last season eight teams that ranked among the top 12 in total offense posted at least 10 victories. Seven of those finished at least in second place of their division races.

Two of those seven (No. 87 Oregon and No. 84 Mississippi State) struggled defensively.

So, there are some finite goals. A&M's offense needs to rank in the top 12 and the defense needs to rank in the top 80.

If the Aggies do that, they should have a legitimate chance to reach the SEC mountaintop.