Wild card winners have won 6 world series in 20 years at the MLB level. Lets get rid of those.

Virginia (44-24) also had a lot of injuries early in the year to players like McCarthy and Kirby that put an additional 5 or so losses on their overall record.

the Cavs did get a favorable regional draw vs. unproven postseason teams like UCSB and Southern Cal, and then of course got to host an SR vs. another 3-seed. But once they got to Omaha...they definitely earned the title beating Florida 2 of 3 and then Vandy 2 of 3

another comment...one reason why national seeds don't always win in Omaha or frankly don't always play well is because...they are no longer playing on their home field. And that hurts them.

take LSU this year as an example. The Tigers did not play particularly great baseball in their regional or SR, but the home field carried them through (along with getting to play local teams). LSU doesn't get to Omaha this year if they had been playing on the road in the regional or SR round -- their play was just not all that great. And it finally caught up with them in Omaha

In sixty four (64) years, the Aggies have only appeared in the CWS five times.

1951, 1964, 1993, 1999, 2011

The CWS total record in 2-10

We desperately need to improve that record. IMO

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another comment...one reason why national seeds don't always win in Omaha or frankly don't always play well is because...they are no longer playing on their home field. And that hurts them.

take LSU this year as an example. The Tigers did not play particularly great baseball in their regional or SR, but the home field carried them through (along with getting to play local teams). LSU doesn't get to Omaha this year if they had been playing on the road in the regional or SR round -- their play was just not all that great. And it finally caught up with them in Omaha

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That's a lot of speculation and conjecture.

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I think a more reasonable way to present this over the past ten seasons:

2 of 80 National Seed have won a NC, 2.5%
5 of 80 other regional hosts have won a NC, 6.25%
3 of 480 non regional host schools (#2 seeds or lower) 0.625%

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Conversely, in that same 10 year frame, 8 out of 560 teams in the field that weren't national seeds won a NC, or 1.4%

So you're almost twice as likely to win a NC as a national seed vs not being one.

The Aggie bats peaked too early this year.

The OP argument is ridiculous, and I think intentionally so.

You're more likely to win your regional if you host. You're more likely to win your super if you host it at home. And most often, the one seed and super hosts win those contests. And the argument seems more ridiculous when considering that we went home on a 16 inning "who flinches first" game in a visiting park. I'd love to have played that game at Olsen, seeing as we won a similar contest when we had that benefit the previous week.

The argument was never that it was impossible for a lower seed to get to Omaha or win it, just that you've done yourself a big. big favor in securing yourself a chance to host twice. I don't think there's any way that's refutable.

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The OP argument is ridiculous, and I think intentionally so.

You're more likely to win your regional if you host. You're more likely to win your super if you host it at home. And most often, the one seed and super hosts win those contests. And the argument seems more ridiculous when considering that we went home on a 16 inning "who flinches first" game in a visiting park. I'd love to have played that game at Olsen, seeing as we won a similar contest when we had that benefit the previous week.

The argument was never that it was impossible for a lower seed to get to Omaha or win it, just that you've done yourself a big. big favor in securing yourself a chance to host twice. I don't think there's any way that's refutable.

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The last 10 champions refute you. A 9-16 team won more than twice as many titles as the 80 national seeds have won the last 10 years. But the facts aside you guys are missing the point.

And how many of those 9-16 teams were playing at home for the SR?

The last 10 champions don't refute a thing I said. The #1 seed wins their regional most often. The host of the super regional wins their super most often.

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The last 10 champions don't refute a thing I said. The #1 seed wins their regional most often. The host of the super regional wins their super most often.

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This thread is clearly titled national champions. You know the teams that actually matter. Ten years covers the current state of college baseball. The facts don't change. And moving the goalposts means you've lost.

You very carefully arranged the goal posts to make your invalid point to begin with

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The last 10 champions don't refute a thing I said. The #1 seed wins their regional most often. The host of the super regional wins their super most often.

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This thread is clearly titled national champions. You know the teams that actually matter. Ten years covers the current state of college baseball. The facts don't change. And moving the goalposts means you've lost.

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Actually, what matters is wins in Omaha. Making it doesn't count. Wins in Omaha are our new metric. Until Childress gets some and THEN it'll be national champions.

Is it moving the goalposts to use the entire data set? Since the super regional format began, 12 of 16 champions have been 1 seeds. 8 of that group been national seeds. It's still the best indicator of who will be the champion. Hosting is very, very, very important. Especially when you take into account that the team we're following has advanced through a road series once in nine tries (Florida State 2011...losses 2007 @ Rice, 2008 @ Rice, 2009 Oregon State @ TCU's regional, 2010 @ Miami, 2013 @ Oregon State, 2014 Texas @ Rice's Regional, 2015 @ TCU) while winning home playoff series 4-5 times. So even despite whatever national trend you pick, home field advantage is clearly very important to the one baseball team that matters to me during that same time period.

No one was unaware that baseball is a sport where 2008 Fresno State can happen, but your original premise is very, very stupid. Compiling a list like Virginia's in the OP is a good way to not be the 1 seed, which is still the vastly superior way of knowing who won't be the national champion. They are an anomaly.

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The last 10 champions don't refute a thing I said. The #1 seed wins their regional most often. The host of the super regional wins their super most often.

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This thread is clearly titled national champions. You know the teams that actually matter. Ten years covers the current state of college baseball. The facts don't change. And moving the goalposts means you've lost.

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Actually, what matters is wins in Omaha. Making it doesn't count. Wins in Omaha are our new metric. Until Childress gets some and THEN it'll be national champions.

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We have one Omaha appearance in a decade. 4 years ago.

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You very carefully arranged the goal posts to make your invalid point to begin with

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What is the point of playing if not to win the national title? You're dumb for even suggesting I'm arranging the goal posts by using national titles. Just admit that you think the last 10 years are an abberation especially the last 4 years. I can disagree with you but at least you are entitled to that opinion. But saying im arranging the goal posts by using national titles is dumb.

The last FIVE national champions hosted a Super Regional. FOUR of them also hosted a Regional.

FOUR of the last five national champions hosted both the Regional and Super Regional.

What is the only way to guarantee you can host both? Be a national seed.

Lance that anomaly (teams that didn't host a regional) have won more national titles in the last 10 years than all your beloved national seeds have. So maybe it is not the anomaly you want to believe it is. National seeds are given all the advantages yet they have won fewer titles in the last 10 years then teams that were sent on the road in the regionals.

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The last FIVE national champions hosted a Super Regional. FOUR of them also hosted a Regional.

FOUR of the last five national champions hosted both the Regional and Super Regional.

What is the only way to guarantee you can host both? Be a national seed.

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Yet NS aren't winning that many titles. So the baseball gods prefer something different.

Recently the best chance is to be a regional host but not a NS.

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Can't argue that 4 of the last 5 champs hosted a super.

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Who didn't? I have 5 out of 5.

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The last FIVE national champions hosted a Super Regional. FOUR of them also hosted a Regional.

FOUR of the last five national champions hosted both the Regional and Super Regional.

What is the only way to guarantee you can host both? Be a national seed.

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Yet NS aren't winning that many titles. So the baseball gods prefer something different.

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They prefer you host until Omaha, and people have thrown you a bone on the point that a national seed doesn't guarantee **** and not being a national seed doesn't guarantee ****, either.

All the **** about Virginia that started this is an outlier and I don't that's up for debate at this point.

I still want to be a national seed because its the only way you control your own destiny.

My post was in response TXAggie2011's post which like you dumped the non-NS #1 seeds with the rest of the field (#2 seeds thru #4 seeds). I think it is a fairer presentation of the data not to do so. if you disagree fine. My responses on this thread are not in anyway trying to back up Jeff's assertions. The first was only to correct misinformation posted by you.

Since this format began, the surest way to get to Omaha is to host a Super Regional, the only way to ensure this is be a National Seed and win your regional (of course unless you're Missouri St. and you get to go on the road anyways).

Wasn't Virginia along side of us early in the season as the only other undefeated team for a while?

I guess we should start losing games on purpose during the season since it'll apparently give us a better shot to win it all. That seems like the most logical conclusion at which to arrive given the OP's arguments.

I was hoping someone could figure this out without me having to spell it out. My point was dont jump off the bandwagon in May and bring negative energy if the Ags aren't winning as much as you want them to. If we ever win a title it will probably be when most people don't think we have a chance. Never stop believing until the final out is recorded. Vandy was 5th in the SEC last year and Virginia was 7th in the ACC this year and both stunk up their conference tourney.

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Can't argue that 4 of the last 5 champs hosted a super.

Can't argue on the entire data set favoring national seeds.

Can't argue that A&M baseball is 1-9 in away series and 4-5 at home during Childress' tenure.

But if the argument is specifically national seeds and exactly the time period you chose, then everyone is missing "the point".

There's a reason all your threads devolve into you calling people names and crowning yourself the "winner" without anyone supporting your ideas, and it isn't because you're onto something brilliant.

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TCU hosting this year was both arguably deserved--not only did they beat us in the SR series but were the last team eliminated prior to the championship series--and proves the value of more transparent seeding for everyone.

Omaha is an end-of-season exhibition tournament that THANKFULLY starts with qualification via a three-game series and ends with a best of three championship. The lopsided regional bracket more than heavily favors the first team to two wins. And the Omaha bracket could similarly have its b dropped for a more accurate description.

But it is a national championship BECAUSE of the extended playoff and is precisely as legit as the NCAA men's basketball tournament champion and in several exciting ways the CFP: because the fans accept it and support it as a championship.
I think the NCAA overpunished A&M for its beginning of season cupcake schedule. And if I were the SEC commissioner I'd have made a comment about that out loud for the specific purpose of letting A&M fans know the conference has our back. LSU deserved one. Arkansas snuck into one by intentional selection committee shenanigans. Vandy didn't earn one but got matched with one of the weaker national seeds. Florida did great in theirs.

We continue our tendency to drop both meaningless and meaningful games when it hurts us the most. Need more mental toughness and I'd argue better fundamentals though with our weakened pitching staff Childress used the flatter seam baseball to catch lightning in a bottle emphasizing offense. You could argue that pitching was the weak link in spite of some outstanding pitching performances because it caused us to shift from offense to fielding skill at the end.

But arguing the CWS doesn't produce an actual champion? Nah. Can't replicate a multi-series playoff without reducing the size of the field and that ain't a-gonna fly.

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I was hoping someone could figure this out without me having to spell it out. My point was dont jump off the bandwagon in May and bring negative energy if the Ags aren't winning as much as you want them to. If we ever win a title it will probably be when most people don't think we have a chance. Never stop believing until the final out is recorded. Vandy was 5th in the SEC last year and Virginia was 7th in the ACC this year and both stunk up their conference tourney.

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Oh so your point is that you're one of those people who truly believe what is posted on a internet message board somehow effects the outcome of sporting events?

Lolz

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I was hoping someone could figure this out without me having to spell it out. My point was dont jump off the bandwagon in May and bring negative energy if the Ags aren't winning as much as you want them to. If we ever win a title it will probably be when most people don't think we have a chance. Never stop believing until the final out is recorded. Vandy was 5th in the SEC last year and Virginia was 7th in the ACC this year and both stunk up their conference tourney.

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Oh so your point is that you're one of those people who truly believe what is posted on a internet message board somehow effects the outcome of sporting events?

Lolz

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This is the baseball board. We are known for our superstitions. But you can assume that players and coaches and recruits and their families never read this board. Not saying you are right, but you can make that assumption. And no one is going to accuse you of supporting Aggie athletics. A sip troll probably being paid by Strong.

The premise is wrong to begin with. The correct question is not "What is the best way to win a NC?" but "
What is the best way to get to the CWS?" The reason is once you get there, anything can happen. Who is hot at that moment, weather (see first Vandy game). etc. The best way to get to the CWS is to be a national seed because you get an easier regional and get to host the SR.

Correct me, Jeff or anyone, if any of my numbers are wrong but I have these,

In the "National Seed Era", 1999 and onwards:

14 of the 17 National Champions hosted a super regional
13 of the 17 National Champions hosted a regional

12 of the 17 National Champions hosted both a regional and a super regional.


I think maybe the recent results suggest, once you're in Omaha, that all bets are off regarding national seeds. However, the numbers definitely suggest you want to host both the regional and the super regional, and you can only guarantee that if you're a national seed.

Otherwise, you're stuck hoping you're one of the lucky teams that gets to host a super regional because a national seed got beat.