AI is a rocket ship right now! I work for Broadcom (AVGO) and it's been incredible to see the growth.

just being in the industry and I can tell you the AI growth is going to continue for sometime, and personally think there is still great upside to the following stocks: Nvidia (obviously) AMD and Broadcom. I'm still kicking myself for selling AMD at 100

I am bullish on AI but to play devil's advocate, future data center growth is going to be very constrained by the wholesale electric grid.

The increase in renewables has increased volatility in wholesale markets already, and the planning process is very slow for new baseload generation or large-scale transmission projects.

Utilities like Dominion are going to have a very hard time keeping up with data center load growth based on current expectations.

Serotonin said:

---

I am bullish on AI but to play devil's advocate, future data center growth is going to be very constrained by the wholesale electric grid.

The increase in renewables has increased volatility in wholesale markets already, and the planning process is very slow for new baseload generation or large-scale transmission projects.

Utilities like Dominion are going to have a very hard time keeping up with data center load growth based on current expectations.

---

yeah you bring up a good point about power. Silicon Photonics is emerging as a game changer and this is going to address the power consumption limitation you are talking about.

I own all three stocks you mentioned, but wish I owned more AVGO. I held about five shares at one point but unloaded some. Now I have one measly share. They also pay a fantastic dividend.

I apparently screwed up a little. Sold the AVGO $1350 option that expired yesterday. Was looking good until the stock went up about $100 in a day--who expects that?

Also sold the AMD $195 option-expires next Friday. We'll see.
As they say you never go broke taking a profit but you hate to see them keep flying away after you sold them

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

As of right now we're following the 1999/2000 fractal until we aren't. And that one topped in April 2000 which was an election year with the run up being dominated by tech. This doesn't have to follow the exact same timeframe and could take much longer into this year. But the seasonal and political similarities for the timeline have us coming into a very precarious position that I think we should be on a lookout for.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

As of right now we're following the 1999/2000 fractal until we aren't. And that one topped in April 2000 which was an election year with the run up being dominated by tech. This doesn't have to follow the exact same timeframe and could take much longer into this year. But the seasonal and political similarities for the timeline have us coming into a very precarious position that I think we should be on a lookout for.

---

it's a little different....AI has a TON of practical applications is pretty much every industry out there. AI, and all the infrastructure that makes AI 'work' is going to have legs for quite some time.

That's pretty awesome that you work for Broadcom. It's a stock which is a core holding in my portfolio.

Though I own QQQ and IVV, which have positions in Broadcom, I also own the stock directly. I also own NVDA, ARM, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. Candidly, I'm looking to increase my ownership in Broadcom.

Just my speculation...AVGO reports earnings on March 7. AVGO is ARM's biggest customer, and they (ARM) just posted earnings that far exceeded expectations. As such, I think AVGO will do the same.

OldArmyCT said:

---

I got tired of dicking around trying to pick an AI stock and cleaned up a few things yesterday and bought a chunk of VGT. I think about 10% of it consists of NVDA & AVGO, their top holdings behind AAPL.

---

I DCA'd most of my 6 figure Roth out of trash target date funds into VIGAX (VUG) during covid crash which has more than quadrupled the returns, then started buying into SMH this month to catch some of this frenzy without having to fomo into single plays- wanted to get more in but now it's been running fast also

OldArmyCT said:

---

I got tired of dicking around trying to pick an AI stock and cleaned up a few things yesterday and bought a chunk of VGT. I think about 10% of it consists of NVDA & AVGO, their top holdings behind AAPL.

---

I second this approach.

Just bet on the sector to out perform the others if you're bullish on AI.

Tech sector also has MSFT as a top holding and MSFT is heavily invested in AI on all fronts.

I think Google and Facebook are not in the tech sector ETFs, so you might pick up some shares of those separately as a single digit percentage of your portfolio if you want exposure to them.

3 ETFs that follow the sector and also have nearly identical performance are:

XLK (spyder)
VGT (vanguard)
FTEC (Fidelity).

I like the spyder sector ETFs because of their higher trading volume.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

As of right now we're following the 1999/2000 fractal until we aren't. And that one topped in April 2000 which was an election year with the run up being dominated by tech. This doesn't have to follow the exact same timeframe and could take much longer into this year. But the seasonal and political similarities for the timeline have us coming into a very precarious position that I think we should be on a lookout for.

---

it's a little different....AI has a TON of practical applications is pretty much every industry out there. AI, and all the infrastructure that makes AI 'work' is going to have legs for quite some time.

---

Sure it is. Don't doubt it one bit.

But tell me, did none of the tech that shot up and helped the market top in 2000 have practical applications in every industry and have legs for quite some time?

Fundamentally, AI is here to stay. It's going to shape the future. Hopefully for good, though the potential government applications are scary.

But as represented in their public pricing? A reckoning is coming in the entire market, and AI will not be immune. Just like in 2000, the bubble will burst at some point. In the aftermath, the leaders will emerge, sustain, and probably lead the market for the next 20 years.

All I'm saying is be careful when investing "right now". This market is in a precarious position.

---

I think it's an apple and oranges situation honestly. "Did none of the tech that shot up" have practical applications? of course there were companies with practical applications. But a ton of "me too" companies had high valuations with little to no earnings.....which is exactly why the bubble popped. They did not have legs because so many of these companies valuations were purely speculative.

I think that's the major difference here....these AI companies have very large earnings and their PE ratios reflect this...so yes, I think it is well represented in their public pricing in my opinion.

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

As of right now we're following the 1999/2000 fractal until we aren't. And that one topped in April 2000 which was an election year with the run up being dominated by tech. This doesn't have to follow the exact same timeframe and could take much longer into this year. But the seasonal and political similarities for the timeline have us coming into a very precarious position that I think we should be on a lookout for.

---

it's a little different....AI has a TON of practical applications is pretty much every industry out there. AI, and all the infrastructure that makes AI 'work' is going to have legs for quite some time.

---

Sure it is. Don't doubt it one bit.

But tell me, did none of the tech that shot up and helped the market top in 2000 have practical applications in every industry and have legs for quite some time?

Fundamentally, AI is here to stay. It's going to shape the future. Hopefully for good, though the potential government applications are scary.

But as represented in their public pricing? A reckoning is coming in the entire market, and AI will not be immune. Just like in 2000, the bubble will burst at some point. In the aftermath, the leaders will emerge, sustain, and probably lead the market for the next 20 years.

All I'm saying is be careful when investing "right now". This market is in a precarious position.

---

I think it's an apple and oranges situation honestly. "Did none of the tech that shot up" have practical applications? of course there were companies with practical applications. But a ton of "me too" companies had high valuations with little to no earnings.....which is exactly why the bubble popped. They did not have legs because so many of these companies valuations were purely speculative.

I think that's the major difference here....these AI companies have very large earnings and their PE ratios reflect this...so yes, I think it is well represented in their public pricing in my opinion.

---

Can you show me a chart of a tech company that didn't have a sizeable drop in 2000 when the bubble burst?

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

As of right now we're following the 1999/2000 fractal until we aren't. And that one topped in April 2000 which was an election year with the run up being dominated by tech. This doesn't have to follow the exact same timeframe and could take much longer into this year. But the seasonal and political similarities for the timeline have us coming into a very precarious position that I think we should be on a lookout for.

---

it's a little different....AI has a TON of practical applications is pretty much every industry out there. AI, and all the infrastructure that makes AI 'work' is going to have legs for quite some time.

---

Sure it is. Don't doubt it one bit.

But tell me, did none of the tech that shot up and helped the market top in 2000 have practical applications in every industry and have legs for quite some time?

Fundamentally, AI is here to stay. It's going to shape the future. Hopefully for good, though the potential government applications are scary.

But as represented in their public pricing? A reckoning is coming in the entire market, and AI will not be immune. Just like in 2000, the bubble will burst at some point. In the aftermath, the leaders will emerge, sustain, and probably lead the market for the next 20 years.

All I'm saying is be careful when investing "right now". This market is in a precarious position.

---

I think it's an apple and oranges situation honestly. "Did none of the tech that shot up" have practical applications? of course there were companies with practical applications. But a ton of "me too" companies had high valuations with little to no earnings.....which is exactly why the bubble popped. They did not have legs because so many of these companies valuations were purely speculative.

I think that's the major difference here....these AI companies have very large earnings and their PE ratios reflect this...so yes, I think it is well represented in their public pricing in my opinion.

---

Can you show me a chart of a tech company that didn't have a sizeable drop in 2000 when the bubble burst?

---

that's like asking if I can show you a chart during covid......of course the entire market reacted. I guess I'm a lot more bullish on AI stocks than you are. I hope I'm right.

More immediate bullish. That's all. I'm just saying be careful expecting them to run for years without a sizeable pullback. But hey, that's what makes a market. People with differing opinions.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

More immediate bullish. That's all. I'm just saying be careful expecting them to run for years without a sizeable pullback. But hey, that's what makes a market. People with differing opinions.

---

To me the key is to use the bubble bursting to buy the ones who will be leaders for the next 20 years. You are right that everyone will drop. Excellent chance to use that opportunity to latch onto the leaders. If you already own then, you can add to your position or just wait it out and ride the coaster down and back up assuming you are in for the long haul.

Wrt Broadcom (AVGO), I don't see a big pullback there when AI pops as it is highly diversified. Presence in AI is just a portion of its biz. Nvidia or AMD could really dump, as would SMCI. But, AVGO has many franchises.

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

This is THE beginning. Very very early days of AI. Mostly POC for the majority of enterprises. Most ISVs have just begun inserting AI into their applications and tech stack. I'm not pumping NVIDIA, but that stock will go to 2000 this year. I own very little.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

As of right now we're following the 1999/2000 fractal until we aren't. And that one topped in April 2000 which was an election year with the run up being dominated by tech. This doesn't have to follow the exact same timeframe and could take much longer into this year. But the seasonal and political similarities for the timeline have us coming into a very precarious position that I think we should be on a lookout for.

---

it's a little different....AI has a TON of practical applications is pretty much every industry out there. AI, and all the infrastructure that makes AI 'work' is going to have legs for quite some time.

---

Sure it is. Don't doubt it one bit.

But tell me, did none of the tech that shot up and helped the market top in 2000 have practical applications in every industry and have legs for quite some time?

Fundamentally, AI is here to stay. It's going to shape the future. Hopefully for good, though the potential government applications are scary.

But as represented in their public pricing? A reckoning is coming in the entire market, and AI will not be immune. Just like in 2000, the bubble will burst at some point. In the aftermath, the leaders will emerge, sustain, and probably lead the market for the next 20 years.

All I'm saying is be careful when investing "right now". This market is in a precarious position.

---

I think it's an apple and oranges situation honestly. "Did none of the tech that shot up" have practical applications? of course there were companies with practical applications. But a ton of "me too" companies had high valuations with little to no earnings.....which is exactly why the bubble popped. They did not have legs because so many of these companies valuations were purely speculative.

I think that's the major difference here....these AI companies have very large earnings and their PE ratios reflect this...so yes, I think it is well represented in their public pricing in my opinion.

---

Can you show me a chart of a tech company that didn't have a sizeable drop in 2000 when the bubble burst?

---

This isn't the same situation at all. 2000 was all about startups and infra companies like Nortel selling things that never were implemented. I honestly don't believe this is a good comparison. Yes, there will be a run up and yes some will fail and yes some will be vaporware but don't invest in those highly speculative companies. Maybe think about companies that have deep customer relationships and marketshare like AMZN, GOOG, MS, and broad and deep application marketshare like SAP and Oracle. Maybe think about the infra players like ARM and NVIDIA.

RoyVal said:

---

AI is a rocket ship right now! I work for Broadcom (AVGO) and it's been incredible to see the growth.

just being in the industry and I can tell you the AI growth is going to continue for sometime, and personally think there is still great upside to the following stocks: Nvidia (obviously) AMD and Broadcom. I'm still kicking myself for selling AMD at 100

---

NVIDIA now my third largest holding in my private brokerage
also have AMD, Broadcom, Super Micro, TSMC, Arista, Amazon, MSFT, META, Palo Alto

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

There are semiconductor indexes that give exposure to the entire sector.

---

SMH

NVDA 25.68% NVIDIA Corporation Common Stock


TSM 9.24% Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

AMD 6.16% Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Common Stock

AVGO 6.04% Broadcom Inc. Common Stock

ASML 5.08% ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares

AMAT 4.64%Applied Materials, Inc. Common Stock

LRCX 4.51% Lam Research Corporation Common Stock

QCOM 4.01% QUALCOMM Incorporated Common Stock

INTC 3.77% Intel Corporation Common Stock

KLAC 3.52% KLA Corporation Common Stock

ANET has been a winner for me as a sidecar to these big AI-based data center build outs. As chips and computing power scale up, the underlying network and data transmission capabilities will have to follow

GenericAggie said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

As of right now we're following the 1999/2000 fractal until we aren't. And that one topped in April 2000 which was an election year with the run up being dominated by tech. This doesn't have to follow the exact same timeframe and could take much longer into this year. But the seasonal and political similarities for the timeline have us coming into a very precarious position that I think we should be on a lookout for.

---

it's a little different....AI has a TON of practical applications is pretty much every industry out there. AI, and all the infrastructure that makes AI 'work' is going to have legs for quite some time.

---

Sure it is. Don't doubt it one bit.

But tell me, did none of the tech that shot up and helped the market top in 2000 have practical applications in every industry and have legs for quite some time?

Fundamentally, AI is here to stay. It's going to shape the future. Hopefully for good, though the potential government applications are scary.

But as represented in their public pricing? A reckoning is coming in the entire market, and AI will not be immune. Just like in 2000, the bubble will burst at some point. In the aftermath, the leaders will emerge, sustain, and probably lead the market for the next 20 years.

All I'm saying is be careful when investing "right now". This market is in a precarious position.

---

I think it's an apple and oranges situation honestly. "Did none of the tech that shot up" have practical applications? of course there were companies with practical applications. But a ton of "me too" companies had high valuations with little to no earnings.....which is exactly why the bubble popped. They did not have legs because so many of these companies valuations were purely speculative.

I think that's the major difference here....these AI companies have very large earnings and their PE ratios reflect this...so yes, I think it is well represented in their public pricing in my opinion.

---

Can you show me a chart of a tech company that didn't have a sizeable drop in 2000 when the bubble burst?

---

This isn't the same situation at all. 2000 was all about startups and infra companies like Nortel selling things that never were implemented. I honestly don't believe this is a good comparison. Yes, there will be a run up and yes some will fail and yes some will be vaporware but don't invest in those highly speculative companies. Maybe think about companies that have deep customer relationships and marketshare like AMZN, GOOG, MS, and broad and deep application marketshare like SAP and Oracle. Maybe think about the infra players like ARM and NVIDIA.

---

You might very well be right. But until the model breaks I'm cautious. It's very very rare that the "hot" ticket item sustains without a major correction.


Look.. I'm not bearish AI. I'm bearish mid term AI. Long term the companies that sustain will likely be the market leaders. Some of them are leading today. I just challenge everyone here to seriously study the history of cycles in the market. Even if there is higher to go, we are closer to a top than a bottom.


Just be careful is all I'm saying. Know your stops.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

As of right now we're following the 1999/2000 fractal until we aren't. And that one topped in April 2000 which was an election year with the run up being dominated by tech. This doesn't have to follow the exact same timeframe and could take much longer into this year. But the seasonal and political similarities for the timeline have us coming into a very precarious position that I think we should be on a lookout for.

---

it's a little different....AI has a TON of practical applications is pretty much every industry out there. AI, and all the infrastructure that makes AI 'work' is going to have legs for quite some time.

---

Sure it is. Don't doubt it one bit.

But tell me, did none of the tech that shot up and helped the market top in 2000 have practical applications in every industry and have legs for quite some time?

Fundamentally, AI is here to stay. It's going to shape the future. Hopefully for good, though the potential government applications are scary.

But as represented in their public pricing? A reckoning is coming in the entire market, and AI will not be immune. Just like in 2000, the bubble will burst at some point. In the aftermath, the leaders will emerge, sustain, and probably lead the market for the next 20 years.

All I'm saying is be careful when investing "right now". This market is in a precarious position.

---

I think it's an apple and oranges situation honestly. "Did none of the tech that shot up" have practical applications? of course there were companies with practical applications. But a ton of "me too" companies had high valuations with little to no earnings.....which is exactly why the bubble popped. They did not have legs because so many of these companies valuations were purely speculative.

I think that's the major difference here....these AI companies have very large earnings and their PE ratios reflect this...so yes, I think it is well represented in their public pricing in my opinion.

---

Can you show me a chart of a tech company that didn't have a sizeable drop in 2000 when the bubble burst?

---

This isn't the same situation at all. 2000 was all about startups and infra companies like Nortel selling things that never were implemented. I honestly don't believe this is a good comparison. Yes, there will be a run up and yes some will fail and yes some will be vaporware but don't invest in those highly speculative companies. Maybe think about companies that have deep customer relationships and marketshare like AMZN, GOOG, MS, and broad and deep application marketshare like SAP and Oracle. Maybe think about the infra players like ARM and NVIDIA.

---

You might very well be right. But until the model breaks I'm cautious. It's very very rare that the "hot" ticket item sustains without a major correction.


Look.. I'm not bearish AI. I'm bearish mid term AI. Long term the companies that sustain will likely be the market leaders. Some of them are leading today. I just challenge everyone here to seriously study the history of cycles in the market. Even if there is higher to go, we are closer to a top than a bottom.


Just be careful is all I'm saying. Know your stops.

---

Totally agree with your sentiment. There will be a pullback on AI. When… 3 years from now. This is going to be a long burn. Until competitors get up on production to of GPUs, NVIDIA is going to continue to sky rocket.

GenericAggie said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

As of right now we're following the 1999/2000 fractal until we aren't. And that one topped in April 2000 which was an election year with the run up being dominated by tech. This doesn't have to follow the exact same timeframe and could take much longer into this year. But the seasonal and political similarities for the timeline have us coming into a very precarious position that I think we should be on a lookout for.

---

it's a little different....AI has a TON of practical applications is pretty much every industry out there. AI, and all the infrastructure that makes AI 'work' is going to have legs for quite some time.

---

Sure it is. Don't doubt it one bit.

But tell me, did none of the tech that shot up and helped the market top in 2000 have practical applications in every industry and have legs for quite some time?

Fundamentally, AI is here to stay. It's going to shape the future. Hopefully for good, though the potential government applications are scary.

But as represented in their public pricing? A reckoning is coming in the entire market, and AI will not be immune. Just like in 2000, the bubble will burst at some point. In the aftermath, the leaders will emerge, sustain, and probably lead the market for the next 20 years.

All I'm saying is be careful when investing "right now". This market is in a precarious position.

---

I think it's an apple and oranges situation honestly. "Did none of the tech that shot up" have practical applications? of course there were companies with practical applications. But a ton of "me too" companies had high valuations with little to no earnings.....which is exactly why the bubble popped. They did not have legs because so many of these companies valuations were purely speculative.

I think that's the major difference here....these AI companies have very large earnings and their PE ratios reflect this...so yes, I think it is well represented in their public pricing in my opinion.

---

Can you show me a chart of a tech company that didn't have a sizeable drop in 2000 when the bubble burst?

---

This isn't the same situation at all. 2000 was all about startups and infra companies like Nortel selling things that never were implemented. I honestly don't believe this is a good comparison. Yes, there will be a run up and yes some will fail and yes some will be vaporware but don't invest in those highly speculative companies. Maybe think about companies that have deep customer relationships and marketshare like AMZN, GOOG, MS, and broad and deep application marketshare like SAP and Oracle. Maybe think about the infra players like ARM and NVIDIA.

---

You might very well be right. But until the model breaks I'm cautious. It's very very rare that the "hot" ticket item sustains without a major correction.


Look.. I'm not bearish AI. I'm bearish mid term AI. Long term the companies that sustain will likely be the market leaders. Some of them are leading today. I just challenge everyone here to seriously study the history of cycles in the market. Even if there is higher to go, we are closer to a top than a bottom.


Just be careful is all I'm saying. Know your stops.

---

Totally agree with your sentiment. There will be a pullback on AI. When… 3 years from now. This is going to be a long burn. Until competitors get up on production to of GPUs, NVIDIA is going to continue to sky rocket.

---

might want to look at what AMD is doing....and how they are using the same tool sets already in place for NVIDIA based systems....

Why so little talk about TSM who makes AMD and NVDA chips?

RoyVal said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

RoyVal said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

QBCade said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

I have no doubt the AI bubble will end badly at some point (because otherwise it wouldn't end, right?) but I'm tempted to dump my IRA into NVDA and catch another 10-20% this month.

---

Every tech run up has had a huge peak, then big fall before going back to maturity. This will be no different. The question is when does the bottom fall out.

---

As of right now we're following the 1999/2000 fractal until we aren't. And that one topped in April 2000 which was an election year with the run up being dominated by tech. This doesn't have to follow the exact same timeframe and could take much longer into this year. But the seasonal and political similarities for the timeline have us coming into a very precarious position that I think we should be on a lookout for.

---

it's a little different....AI has a TON of practical applications is pretty much every industry out there. AI, and all the infrastructure that makes AI 'work' is going to have legs for quite some time.

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Sure it is. Don't doubt it one bit.

But tell me, did none of the tech that shot up and helped the market top in 2000 have practical applications in every industry and have legs for quite some time?

Fundamentally, AI is here to stay. It's going to shape the future. Hopefully for good, though the potential government applications are scary.

But as represented in their public pricing? A reckoning is coming in the entire market, and AI will not be immune. Just like in 2000, the bubble will burst at some point. In the aftermath, the leaders will emerge, sustain, and probably lead the market for the next 20 years.

All I'm saying is be careful when investing "right now". This market is in a precarious position.

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I think it's an apple and oranges situation honestly. "Did none of the tech that shot up" have practical applications? of course there were companies with practical applications. But a ton of "me too" companies had high valuations with little to no earnings.....which is exactly why the bubble popped. They did not have legs because so many of these companies valuations were purely speculative.

I think that's the major difference here....these AI companies have very large earnings and their PE ratios reflect this...so yes, I think it is well represented in their public pricing in my opinion.

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Can you show me a chart of a tech company that didn't have a sizeable drop in 2000 when the bubble burst?

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This isn't the same situation at all. 2000 was all about startups and infra companies like Nortel selling things that never were implemented. I honestly don't believe this is a good comparison. Yes, there will be a run up and yes some will fail and yes some will be vaporware but don't invest in those highly speculative companies. Maybe think about companies that have deep customer relationships and marketshare like AMZN, GOOG, MS, and broad and deep application marketshare like SAP and Oracle. Maybe think about the infra players like ARM and NVIDIA.

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You might very well be right. But until the model breaks I'm cautious. It's very very rare that the "hot" ticket item sustains without a major correction.


Look.. I'm not bearish AI. I'm bearish mid term AI. Long term the companies that sustain will likely be the market leaders. Some of them are leading today. I just challenge everyone here to seriously study the history of cycles in the market. Even if there is higher to go, we are closer to a top than a bottom.


Just be careful is all I'm saying. Know your stops.

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Totally agree with your sentiment. There will be a pullback on AI. When… 3 years from now. This is going to be a long burn. Until competitors get up on production to of GPUs, NVIDIA is going to continue to sky rocket.

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might want to look at what AMD is doing....and how they are using the same tool sets already in place for NVIDIA based systems....

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I'm not saying NVIDIA is the only player and until amzn and Google catch up, and they will, it's going to be a two horse race or theee. We'll see. Need more competition.

jamey said:

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Why so little talk about TSM who makes AMD and NVDA chips?

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Look y'all - NVDA has skyrocketed up in value to number 3 in the world. But TSM and other similar type of supportive companies haven't? That doesn't make sense. You don't just have one house on the street go for $10M and the neighbor houses only worth $300K.

Not to mention this - what happens if a black swan event happens? Doesn't even have to be related to a tech sector or similar part of the market. NVDA and all others will be also be subjected to the whims of the macro market conditions. They can't hide.

I'm bullish on AI and everything it has potential but I don't trust this market right now as it seems predicated on Xanax and hopium waiting for fed rate cuts. But there are sectors with the necrosis is festering and contagion is a real risk.

Just waiting to buy the dip. Not gonna fomo.

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

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jamey said:

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Why so little talk about TSM who makes AMD and NVDA chips?

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Look y'all - NVDA has skyrocketed up in value to number 3 in the world. But TSM and other similar type of supportive companies haven't? That doesn't make sense. You don't just have one house on the street go for $10M and the neighbor houses only worth $300K.

Not to mention this - what happens if a black swan event happens? Doesn't even have to be related to a tech sector or similar part of the market. NVDA and all others will be also be subjected to the whims of the macro market conditions. They can't hide.

I'm bullish on AI and everything it has potential but I don't trust this market right now as it seems predicated on Xanax and hopium waiting for fed rate cuts. But there are sectors with the necrosis is festering and contagion is a real risk.

Just waiting to buy the dip. Not gonna fomo.

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TSMC hasn't gone crazy because they still have plenty of capacity. If they were over capacity and were raising prices 20-25%, then they would. They are very capital intensive too.

Serotonin said:

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I am bullish on AI but to play devil's advocate, future data center growth is going to be very constrained by the wholesale electric grid.

The increase in renewables has increased volatility in wholesale markets already, and the planning process is very slow for new baseload generation or large-scale transmission projects.

Utilities like Dominion are going to have a very hard time keeping up with data center load growth based on current expectations.

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Dominion yieidng 5.7%+ currently, not bad. and you're telling me there is upside ...

JSKolache said:

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Serotonin said:

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I am bullish on AI but to play devil's advocate, future data center growth is going to be very constrained by the wholesale electric grid.

The increase in renewables has increased volatility in wholesale markets already, and the planning process is very slow for new baseload generation or large-scale transmission projects.

Utilities like Dominion are going to have a very hard time keeping up with data center load growth based on current expectations.

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Dominion yieidng 5.7%+ currently, not bad. and you're telling me there is upside ...

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I'm not too familiar with them. But obviously they are better off with a lot of load growth in their territory than the reverse, even though there will be growing pains and planning headaches.

On NVDA and other AI stocks, this run up feels like a bubble to me.

I think that early investors realized what a great spot some of these companies were in and the explosive growth that's going to happen. And they really were undervalued.

Then there was an absolute boom in share price in 2023 as everyone began to understand the ramifications of the Ai revolution.

But it seems like we are hitting euphoria and greater fool stage now. Everyone and their uncle buying shares, people making a fortune aggressively betting with calls, people shifting retirement funds into speculative positions, etc.

It will probably run up further, but at some point the investors who have been in a while will start taking profits and there will be a correction.