There's a lot of definitives that get posted on this board. I just like to call them out.
quote:Yes, but I haven't seen Michael Linn in the Houston society pages lately with his $10MM fortune, so I would guess he is not doing so well
Yes I have. It's actually pretty elementary. Linn is on a 14-18 month timeline that is commodity dependent. They have made great moves to keep liquidity flowing internally and externally.
What jake2011 is espousing is not based in reality only what he read.
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Comeby,
I work in the space. Generally its learned on the job. I'm not going to talk specific to LINN but it's fair to say that the Fall Redetermination will be painful for many producers as the Spring was a hall pass imo.
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Thanks for getting us back on topic The Original AG 76. I was worried for a minute that the thread would die a slow death over the mandate of FRCs and an old army vs new army pissing match. Should have guessed it'd be the financial guys though!
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Forward EBITDA multiples means nothing in my experience when bidding in this price environment. The last deal we bid on that had a midstream MLP in it went for more than 12x TTM. Unfortunately the winning bidding didn't look at their LOS closely enough to determine that their midstream arm chrarged their own operating arm more than 4x the going rate for compression and gathering. That multiple was not real.
quote:I spent time in western China back in 2010. I found several things very interesting but two specific things very interesting. 1) The number of concrete high-rises sitting unfinished, looked like a giant Jenga set with the middle blocks pushed out. 2) The number of ornate detailed printed billboards lining the streets advertising western people out in the starry night dressed in elegant gowns and tuxedos in front of 5-star hotels. Then you look around at the slums, horse drawn buggies, smog, general filth and think no way this will ever be here.
Back to the thread.......
I'm afraid that we might see sub $40 oil this fall. It all hinges on just how bad the Chinese economy really is. I spent lunch yesterday with a friend who just got back from 3 weeks in China and , as a many times traveler to the Peoples Republic, he was shocked as to how bad things have really become. Behind the scenes and in private ( remember they are still a communist totalitarian nation where the truth is exactly what the politburos tell you it is) his hosts regaled him with stories of cooked books, bankrupt industries, entire cities abandoned, massive fraud and deceit ....not that this was new but the level has become unsustainable and the economy is spinning out of control. This may become the winter of unrest over there driven by a collapsing economy. If Chinese demand continues its dive OR increases we could easily see $30 oil in our future...and THAT my friends means a 1980's magnitude bust !!!
quote:like APC buying Nuevo for $2.2B?
Typically for first round bids, you don't have much more to go on than EBITDA. We know the assets we were bidding on as they are adjacent to our assets and we are very familiar. There were no funny games with ebitda. It's just that others out a crazy valuation on what the assets could be instead of bidding on what they are. This has been common the last few years but I was hoping in this environment valuations would come back to earth... Not yet!
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Typically for first round bids, you don't have much more to go on than EBITDA. We know the assets we were bidding on as they are adjacent to our assets and we are very familiar. There were no funny games with ebitda. It's just that others out a crazy valuation on what the assets could be instead of bidding on what they are. This has been common the last few years but I was hoping in this environment valuations would come back to earth... Not yet!