You can’t win the Heisman Trophy in September, but you can lose it.
Really.
In the last 40 years, Charlie Ward is the only Heisman winner who missed a regular-season game against Power Conference competition. With all due respect to Kewan Lacy and his global preseason Heisman campaign, I’d say his odds of winning the award are cooked after he was sidelined in the loss at Florida. The same could be said for Ahmad Hardy, who has unfortunately been sidelined all September after suffering a gunshot wound at a concert over the summer.
It might sound strange to say that someone like Colin Simmons is eliminated from the Heisman race after he just set a Texas record with 5.5 sacks. He currently leads all of college football with 7.5 sacks after he was a preseason All-American. Couldn’t he still win the award if he had some 20-sack season?
A couple of things. We can’t forget that Will Anderson had 34.5 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks in 2021, and he somehow didn’t even get an invite to New York. Also, if we are about to see a primary defensive player win the award without any offensive contributions for the first time in its nearly century-long existence, do we think it’ll be the guy who, uh, “celebrated” like Simmons did on Saturday? I don’t.
History tells us that the margin for error is essentially non-existent for defensive players, which is why guys like Simmons and Princewill Umanmielen likely don’t have a path, even if they continue to lead the nation in sacks. Fair or not, that’s reality.
But fear not. There are plenty of decorated SEC players who are indeed firmly in the discussion.
These are the seven SEC players who can still win the award as October arrives:
7. Austin Simmons, Missouri QB
Even after Mizzou suffered its first loss of the season, Simmons is still part of this discussion. He got the nod for this last spot ahead of someone like LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt, who has already thrown six interceptions (the last seven Heisman-winning quarterbacks have thrown seven interceptions or less). Simmons would also be favored ahead of someone like Aaron Philo, who has been fantastic in Year 1 with Jon Sumrall, but isn’t the most valuable player in his own offense (more on Jadan Baugh in a second).
All Simmons has done in his first month at Mizzou is throw for 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Remember, this is someone who got Wally Pipp’d by Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss because he couldn’t stop turning the ball over. While Simmons has played with fire a little bit more than the “zero interceptions” number would suggest, he's been phenomenal for a Hardy-less Mizzou offense. It helps that he’s only been pressured on 15.8 percent of his drop-backs (he’s got the fewest pressured drop-backs among starting SEC quarterbacks). He’s been excellent at attacking downfield — he has a 133.2 NFL QB rating on throws 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage — and keeping Mizzou’s offense on schedule.
He’s not going to add the rushing scores that others on this list will, but a guy who throws for 30-35 touchdowns with only a handful of interceptions can hang around in the Heisman hunt. And who knows? Simmons might actually just be scratching the surface of his game with roughly half a season’s worth of college starts. So far, so good.
6. Gunner Stockton, Georgia QB
If you asked the casual fan if Stockton finished in the top 10 of the Heisman voting last year, I’d bet the majority of them would tell you that he didn’t. They’d, of course, be wrong. Stockton has built on his seventh-place finish by operating a Georgia offense that ranks No. 2 in yards per play heading into October. Has Stockton had to be Superman yet? Not at all, but it’s worth noting that he made some big-time throws against that loaded Oklahoma defense, helping UGA cruise to another blowout victory.
Stockton’s path to New York is similar to 2022 Stetson Bennett IV in that his raw numbers probably won’t set the world on fire, and his case will be more about how he plays when Georgia is actually tested. There’s a world in which he throws for five touchdowns against Alabama in Tuscaloosa and is firmly in the driver’s seat for a Georgia team that looks unstoppable.
It would help Stockton’s case if he repeated the double-digit rushing touchdowns that he put up last year. Georgia’s early-season dominance speaks to why Stockton’s legs haven’t been needed. Even if Georgia goes 13-0 pre-Heisman and Stockton continues to average north of 10.0 yards per play, he probably won’t win the award with some 25-touchdown season.
But if and when Stockton faces some real heat, trust the guy who trailed only the 2025 Heisman winner, Fernando Mendoza, in NFL QB rating under pressure.
5. Arch Manning, Texas QB
I know, I know. The Texas offense has been held in check in its two ranked wins, and you think that Manning is overrated. Here’s the thing. I agree that treating Manning as the no-doubt future No. 1 overall pick is absurd, and if you still have him as the top quarterback in the SEC, you’re telling on yourself that you haven’t watched football this year.
But he’s not fading from the Heisman discussion for a couple of reasons. We acknowledge that he hasn’t been a revelation at the position. There’s been meat left on the bone, but Manning still led the most significant comeback of the season against No. 1 Ohio State, and according to PFF, he has as many big-time throws (7) as Chambliss.
Manning won’t have to put up 2023 Jayden Daniels-like numbers to win the award. Texas’ schedule will provide plenty more national spotlight opportunities for someone who is obviously a household name. He will, however, need to start delivering some of those four-touchdown games — he has yet to have his first rushing score of the year after he had 10 last year — to be considered a true candidate, not just a familiar name.
4. Keelon Russell, Alabama QB
I’ve been all in on Russell since spring, and 95 percent of what we’ve seen from him so far suggests that he’s the real deal. Outside of that chaotic start against Kentucky in his first career road game, Russell has been even better than advertised. Through four games, three of which were against Power Conference competition, Russell is No. 7 in FBS with 324 yards of offense per game. He’s also No. 2 among Power Conference quarterbacks with a 75 percent adjusted completion percentage on throws 20 yards downfield.
A promising early sign for Russell is that since that early meltdown against Kentucky, he’s looked like a veteran under pressure. In those spots, he has a 90 percent adjusted completion percentage. That’s the best mark of all 73 Power Conference quarterbacks with at least 10 pressured drop-backs. Russell has shown fantastic poise, and in doing so, he’s unlocked the explosiveness of the Alabama offense in ways that future first-round pick Ty Simpson couldn’t.
Russell already has a Power Conference-leading 14 completions on throws 20 yards downfield. It’s why Alabama’s offense has looked like a bottle rocket in the first month. If Russell continues to explode, the emerging star is looking like he’s capable of following the 2021 Bryce Young path to the Heisman.
3. Jadan Baugh, Florida RB
If you want to push back on having Baugh in the top three because he’s playing a position that’s more than a decade removed from winning the award, I get it. Up until Ashton Jeanty finished runner-up in 2024, only one running back (2017 Bryce Love) got a Heisman invite from 2016-23. Mind you, that was during a time in which guys like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson played the sport.
But ask yourself this — if a guy is going to end the running back Heisman drought, don’t you think he’d have a start like Baugh’s? I certainly do.
Through four games, he’s got 600 rushing yards (No. 2 in FBS) and 11 rushing scores (No. 1 in FBS). On top of that, he’s got an FBS-best 34 missed tackles forced, and he’s No. 2 with 358 yards after first contact. Baugh finally has an elite play-caller who gives him the workload that he deserves. The question is if he can hold up for a full season if he gets 275-300 carries.
What we know for now is that he’s the face of a new-look Florida offense that’s off to a record-setting start in the Sumrall era. If he continues this pace, he’s getting to New York, and dare I say, he’ll have a chance to be more than just a celebrated spectator.
2. Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State QB
It’s no longer premature. Taylor is the real deal. Watch him play. That’s why he’s already a household name in the sport. It helps that the numbers back up the eye test. He’s tied for the FBS lead with 14 touchdown passes, tied for second in adjusted completion percentage under pressure (83.3%), and he’s tied for third with 344.3 yards of offense per game.
Taylor did that at a place that had just two SEC victories in the previous three seasons. Of course, he’s already matched that total while also picking up a dominant road win at Minnesota. He elevated a team that was starving for elite quarterback play. That’s an extra point in his favor as opposed to someone like Julian Sayin at Ohio State.
Even if Taylor’s blistering start doesn’t result in getting Mississippi State to the Playoff for the first time, it’s worth noting that three of the last four Heisman winners missed out on the Playoff, including the last Heisman winner from the SEC, Jayden Daniels. Perhaps Taylor can put himself in the Daniels conversation in October.
1. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss QB
Yes, I know that he just lost to Florida. He wasn’t the one missing all of those tackles, though. Chambliss did everything in his power to lift Ole Miss in a hostile atmosphere against an emerging Florida team, and if you think that game suddenly takes him out of the Heisman race, you haven’t been paying attention. Or perhaps you’re choosing to forget how masterful Chambliss was in his first two ranked matchups of the year, both of which saw the aforementioned Lacy go down. The latter should only add to his case.
As mentioned with Taylor, it’s fair to at least wonder if Chambliss is setting himself up to do full 2023 Daniels. The difference with Chambliss is that he might have a defense that’s closer to 2023 LSU than Taylor, which would allow for more eye-popping numbers at season’s end.
To this point, Chambliss’ numbers aren’t necessarily eye-popping — he’s tied for No. 3 among Power Conference quarterbacks with 305.5 passing yards per game — but is a 30-10 split (touchdown passes-to-rushing scores) with 4,000 passing yards in play? Absolutely. If Chambliss even comes close to that for an Ole Miss team that gets back to the Playoff, he’ll have as good a chance as anybody to take home the Heisman.
If we’ve learned anything about Chambliss the last 13 months, it’s that you shouldn’t bet against him.
