Series Preview: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
Who: University of South Carolina (22-15, 4-11 SEC)
Where: Founders Park Stadium – Columbia, South Carolina
When:
- Thursday 6:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Friday 6:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Saturday 3:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Pitching matchups
Friday: John Doxakis (LHP, 4-2, 1.76) vs. Reid Morgan (RHP, 3-2, 3.47)
Saturday: Asa Lacy (LHP, 6-1, 1.69) vs. Cam Tringali (RHP, 2-0, 2.81)
Sunday: TBA vs. TBA
Scouting South Carolina
The Gamecocks’ offensive stat line is all over the map. On one hand, they lead the league with 59 home runs – a whopping 38 more long balls than the Aggies (21). That is an incredible difference and would initially lead you to believe that South Carolina has a huge advantage offensively. Not so fast my friend. The Gamecocks also have one of the lowest team batting averages at .241. That is 18 points below Texas A&M’s .259, which isn’t that great of a number either. TJ Hopkins leads the team in hitting with a .306 average, and three other starters are hitting between .272-.287. The remaining four hitters in the starting lineup are hitting just .235 or less. On the other hand, Jacob Olsen (.287) is among the league leaders with 12 home runs and a .605 slugging percentage, but he only has 29 RBI. Hopkins has hit nine long balls and leads the team with 33 RBI, and Luke Berryhill (.272) has eight homers to his credit with 33 RBI. That tells you a lot of their offensive run production comes from the home run.
After those three, the statistical numbers quickly fall off the table. When you combine the power numbers and the low batting averages, the results end up being pretty close to Texas A&M’s overall numbers. USC scores an average 5.86 runs per game, while the Aggies produce 5.92 runs per game. The Gamecocks have an on-base percentage of .339 compared to the Aggies’ .343. USC has walked 149 times compared to 150 for Texas A&M. And as you would expect from a power hitting team, South Carolina has struck out a whopping 341 times (9.21 k’s/gm). Given that Texas A&M’s pitching is second in the nation in strikeouts, expect to see a lot of Gamecocks going down swinging.
While it isn’t clear who has the upper-hand offensively, there’s no question that Texas A&M has the superior pitching staff. South Carolina’s team ERA of 4.57 is a full 1.68 runs per game higher than the Aggies’ 2.89 ERA. USC’s WHIP of 1.36 is much higher than Texas A&M’s 1.14. The Aggies have struck out nearly 100 more batters (433) than South Carolina’s pitching (334). Opposing teams are hitting .251 against Gamecock pitching compared to Texas A&M’s opposing batting average of just .222.
South Carolina’s Friday (Thursday) night starter is Reid Morgan with a 3-2 record and a 3.47 ERA, surrendering more hits than innings pitched. Solid collegiate pitching numbers, but not up to “Friday night” SEC standards. It’s certainly not up to John Doxakis’ 1.76 ERA. Game two’s starter will be freshman Cam Tringali who will be making his third collegiate start and has burst onto the scene to be South Carolina’s best starting pitcher based on a small sample size. He’s 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA. The Gamecocks have a very capable closer in Brett Kerry, who has a stat line of 3-1, 2.06 ERA and four saves. After that, the bullpen is a mess with a bevy of arms with ERA’s ranging from 4.75 to 8.90. We’re talking about pitchers with 25-30 innings pitched with these high ERA’s. That indicates that South Carolina has very few quality options in the bullpen other than their closer.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
For most of the season, A&M hitters have used an aggressive approach at the plate, looking for a fastball to hit early in the count. That allows the opposing pitchers to get through the game on fewer pitches. It’s hard to tell your guys to change their approach, but with Texas A&M having such a strong advantage on the mound and South Carolina almost void of quality bullpen arms, it would be wise strategically to be more patient and work pitch counts on each at-bat with the desire to get into USC’s bullpen sooner rather than later. A&M’s pitching advantage is minimized if the starting pitchers can last 7-8 innings and the Gamecocks can go directly to the closer. As much as the Aggies have struggled at the plate, they would much rather face a hurler out of the bullpen with a 6.20 ERA in the sixth frame than allow Morgan or Tringali to extend their starts to eight innings and turn the ball over to closer Kerry and his 2.06 ERA.
Another match-up in Texas A&M’s favor on offense is that both announced USC starters are right-handers, which helps the Aggies’ lefty-dominant lineup. I can go on and on about how the Aggies must hit better, but we all know that must be the case if this team wants to ultimately make noise in the conference race and the postseason. The mediocre South Carolina pitching staff gives the offense an opportunity to “get well.” It’s not like we should expect an explosion of runs and long balls, but it will be very disappointing if this team can’t plate 15+ runs throughout weekend.
On the mound, the Aggie starters do need to be better than they’ve been in recent weeks in regard to control and getting ahead in the count. It seems both Doxakis and Lacy tend to lose focus at times. They also have a bad habit of getting behind in the count, but they are talented enough to come back and grind it out and get outs. I think that’s more important this weekend when facing a free swinging power hitting team with a collective low batting average and a lot of strikeouts. The only way Doxakis and Lacy give up runs will be via the long ball, and pitchers are susceptible to home runs when they fall behind in the count to power hitters who can sit on fastballs over the plate and swing for the fences. If A&M’s two aces can be sharp and stay ahead of the Gamecock hitters, these USC batters are easy pickings for a lot of strikeouts. If Doxakis and Lacy are sharp, I can see the two combining for 25 strikeouts and simply dominate the game. The only way I see these two All-American candidates lose this weekend is if they consistently fall behind USC hitters and surrender a couple of homers. Another advantage of Doxakis and Lacy pitching ahead in the count will allow them to extend their outings into the 7th or 8th inning, and that will save critical bullpen arms for the third game on Saturday when the Aggies will need to piece together a solution on the mound from the bullpen given recent injuries.
What's at stake this weekend
As I said in my game thoughts after Tuesday’s loss to UH, the mid-week loss won’t hurt so much if the Aggies can go into Columbia and win another SEC road series. At this point, the strength of this team’s resume is the SEC record of 9-5-1, which is just a half-game out of first place. It’s really strange to see the handwringing by Aggie fans over this season, yet the 2019 squad is positioned to compete for a regular season title. The schedule is also playing into Texas A&M’s favor. The Gamecocks are having one of their worst conference seasons in over 20 years, and the Aggies match-up well with South Carolina on paper.
The Aggies really need to capitalize on this advantage and win the series. It’s critical because Texas A&M will face ranked Ole Miss on the road next weekend and first place Mississippi State in two weeks in College Station. The Aggies can’t limp into that difficult six-game stretch and expect to come out the other side near the top of the SEC standings. And with these mid-week losses piling up, it’s imperative that Texas A&M finish well-above .500 in SEC play to insure a postseason bid. At 9-5-1 and ranked in the top 10, hosting is definitely still on the table. A hot run through these next nine games and a national seed isn’t completely out of the question given the team’s impressive strength of schedule. First thing’s first, it starts by winning this SEC series on this Easter weekend against a 4-11 squad.