Series Preview: No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 LSU
Who: Louisiana State University (21-9, 6-3 SEC)
Where: Alex Box Stadium – Baton Rouge, LA
When:
- Friday 7:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Saturday 2:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Saturday 7:00 p.m. CT (ESPN2)
Pitching matchups
Friday: John Doxakis (LHP, 3-2, 2.38) vs. Zack Hess (RHP, 2-2, 4.06)
Saturday: Asa Lacy (LHP, 5-0, 1.48) vs. Cole Henry (RHP, 2-1, 3.90)
Sunday: TBA vs. Eric Walker (RHP, 2-1, 4.60)
Scouting LSU
If you are a long-time Aggie fan, LSU has been a thorn in the side of Aggie baseball going all the way back to that fateful day in 1989 at the Central Regional when Ben McDonald and the Tigers knocked off No. 1 Texas A&M. The Tigers eliminated Texas A&M in the 2004 postseason as well. The perception is that LSU baseball has A&M’s number. But actually, that’s not the case. The Aggies lead the all-time series 24-21. In the SEC, Texas A&M leads the series 10-8, and the Aggies have won three straight series. The 2019 Aggies are looking to make it four in a row, but the question today is can they win this series?
If you look at LSU’s season so far, it’s been a mixed bag. Their non-conference schedule was pretty weak heading into a three-game series in Austin against the Longhorns, and they were swept in convincing fashion. After a SEC opening sweep over a struggling Kentucky squad, LSU faced No. 11 Georgia and they lost that series as well. However, LSU finally got their first series win over a ranked opponent in impressive style going into Dudy Noble Field and winning two games against then No. 2 Mississippi State.
The key to last weekend’s series win was the sparkling Sunday start from sophomore Eric Walker who came into the game with an ERA around 5.00. He promptly shutout the No. 2 team in the nation with seven innings of scoreless ball, surrendering just four hits and two walks. For a pitching staff that has struggled as a whole, Walker changes the script completely if he can duplicate that performance consistently.
If you look at the statistics on paper, this is one of LSU’s weaker rotations in recent years. ERA’s of 4.06, 3.90, and 4.60 for a frontline SEC opponent doesn’t look very good. In fact, it’s downright bad. But usually, the numbers reflect 1-2 bad outings. For example, Friday starter Zach Hess was shelled last week by Mississippi State surrendering six runs on 11 hits in just 4+ innings of work. But as we saw with Eric Walker’s shut-out perfomance on the road last weekend, we do know that LSU has some talented arms but have lacked consistency. So just because the numbers aren’t what we expect from a typical LSU team, the talent is still there. But, the lack of consistency does show that the Texas A&M offense should have opportunities to score some runs at some point this weekend if they remain patient and don’t swing at pitches out of the zone.
If you compare season statistics, LSU’s team ERA of 3.90 is significantly higher than A&M’s 2.64. A&M pitching has given up just 102 runs compared to LSU’s 125 and A&M has played one extra game. There’s a huge disparity in strikeouts. Aggie pitching has struck out 354 hitters to LSU’s 259. But if you look at hits, the numbers are almost identical per game played. LSU has surrenderd 220 hits to A&M’s 225. So why is Texas A&M’s team ERA so much lower? Well, look at the walks. The Aggies have given opponents 89 free passes, but LSU pitching has allowed 127 walks which is 4.25 a contest. And that’s why A&M hitters must be more patient than they’ve been in previous weekends.
At the plate, LSU is very experienced and capable at the top of the order, led by senior Antoine Duplantis who has been playing at LSU for what feels like eight years. The lefty leads the team in home runs (7) and RBI (33) with a .331 average in the middle of their lineup. Right-hander Zach Watson leads the team in hitting (.347) and doubles (11). He’s the lone right-handed bat at the top of the Tiger batting order. Lead-off speedster Josh Smith (.343) is a lefty, as well as the power bats of Daniel Cabrera (6 HR, 28 RBI) and Chris Reid (.333). After the first 4-5 hitters in the order, the production drops off significantly. As a team, LSU’s .278 overall batting average is only a few points higher than A&M’s (.271). From a team perspective, LSU has a slight advantage in most offensive categories, but very small to almost neglible. LSU has scored 215 runs to A&M’s 209. The Tigers have hit 27 home runs compared to the Aggies’ 20 long balls. LSU’s .414 slugging percentage is slightly higher than A&M’s .383 slugging average.
LSU has been very efficient defensively, fielding at a very high .980 clip. The Aggies have slipped since a sloppy weekend against Missouri with a fielding percentage of .972 which isn’t bad, but very average by collegiate standards.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
The storylines are very clear for the Aggies in this series. On offense, the A&M hitters must be patient, which goes against their philosophy of swinging at a fastball early in the count. LSU pitching is talented, but inconsistent and not always under control. A&M must allow LSU to beat itself on the mound, because they’ve shown to do that at times throughout the season. It’s much easier to let an inconsistent pitching staff get themselves into trouble with extended pitching counts and walks, rather than trying to attack and score runs by stringing hits together.
The Aggies can’t be aggressive and swing at pitches out of the zone and get behind in the count because LSU’s arms are too talented not to be effective working ahead in the count. They’ve shown a tendency to get behind in the count and implode. Allow them to do that. Don’t let them off the hook. Be selective and sit on a fastball ahead 3-1 in the count versus chasing a bad pitch on a 1-2 count. Get the free pass. Let LSU pitching show you they can throw strikes before you start getting aggressive.
The match-up should favor the left-handed dominant A&M batting order. LSU will be throwing three right-handed starters. The Aggies struggled with all of Missouri’s lefty starters because with injuries to Hunter Coleman and Bryce Blaum, A&M had very few effective right-handed bats and were forced to go with way too many lefty-lefty battles that favored the pitcher. With right-handers going all three games, Coach Childress can get left-handers Cam Blake and Will Frizzell back in the lineup, and it will be a stronger lineup at the plate. Add in a white hot left-handed bat of Braden Shewmake (.344) and the match-ups look good on paper.
On the flip side, LSU’s significant bats at the top of the lineup are mostly from the left side, so that should favor John Doxakis and Asa Lacy. Only Zach Watson is a leading hitter from the right-side. The rest are all lefties. The other key for Aggie pitchers is to win those lefty-lefty match-ups at the top of the order because that’s where most of LSU’s run production is generated. The back-end of LSU’s batting order is not quite as intimidating with a collection of platoon players hitting in the .200’s. Texas A&M pitchers must be efficient and not give up cheap walks near the bottom of the order or they wil have to face dangerous hitters at the top of the lineup with runners on base.
What's at stake this weekend
Come on, this is LSU. If there is anything as close to a true baseball rival outside of the boys in Austin, it’s the Tigers. The history runs so deep with these two programs, and A&M fans have suffered some of the most heartbreaking moments in program history to LSU. Aside from the losses in the 1989 regional, do any of you old-timers want to forget about the come-from-behind win and the Todd Walker home run that essentially kept Texas A&M from being one game from the national championship game in 1993? So we can talk about how first place in the SEC West is on the line with 6-2-1 A&M going up against 6-3 LSU, but let’s be honest. Anybody over the age of 50 wants revenge every time the Aggies play LSU in baseball.
Winning this series from an SEC standpoint is huge. Going 8-3-1 after a road trip to No. 13 LSU would put Aggie baseball is a good spot coming home to face Auburn at Olsen Field next weekend.
