Back to "normal" metrics

5,079 Views | 33 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Fitch
ExpressAg11
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Seeing as how COVID isn't fully going away and there will be consistent "spikes" throughout the country, what metrics will it take to open things back to normal across the U.S.? Some states seem to be setting unobtainable goals that practically call for zero cases for weeks before fully opening back up.

Do you think we will see the current situation of southern states opening back almost all the way and northern/northwest states being restricted for months/years?
amercer
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I think by fall everything will be back to normal.

I think between now and then there will be a lot of sound and fury.

I saw someone claim that about 100 people a day die of the flu in an average season, and about a 100 people a day die in car accidents in the US. So maybe that's the level of acceptable risk in the country?

If we keep putting 3 million shots a day in arms, there won't be any Covid by July. Unfortunately I think it lingers on a Bit longer than that.
beerad12man
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I try not to be too cynical, as I see things like what Ohio state just posted for their fall and scratch my head at the lack of logic. I mean, by September 1st, that's 140 days with the potential to do 3-3.5 million shots per day. Not everyone will get one, but the point should be that everyone has the chance by then. Including children. And if I had to guess numbers for covid will be at rock bottom since this began.

Logically speaking, once mathematically everyone has had a chance at the vaccine, there's no reason why in a free country it shouldn't be back to 100% choice on how to handle their risk moving forward without any more restrictions than the flu has. But I can't possibly see it going that well. Masks may never go away in some instances / businesses

with what all has gone on the last year, nothing would shock me. It wouldn't shock me to see some long lasting implications from this that never truly Go away
beerad12man
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In the biggest flu season recently, they estimated 61k died. That's 167 per day. Most were around 30k, or just under 100 a day. But you might go months without much flu.

So during the actual heart of the season it's probably a few hundred dying per day.

38k due to car accidents. That's just over 100 per day as well.

I just think for a lot of people to be able to feel mentally be free in their own minds, we are going to have to do away with the daily trackers for it. We haven't done that with anything else. I bet a lot of people would be shocked at the numbers during flu season, especially if you added in all pneumonia and/or other respiratory deaths.

A lot of people have lost all sense of reasonable risk assessment due to this. Hell half the population probably has no idea over 8,000 America's die per day.
fightingfarmer09
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amercer said:

I think by fall everything will be back to normal.

I think between now and then there will be a lot of sound and fury.

I saw someone claim that about 100 people a day die of the flu in an average season, and about a 100 people a day die in car accidents in the US. So maybe that's the level of acceptable risk in the country?

If we keep putting 3 million shots a day in arms, there won't be any Covid by July. Unfortunately I think it lingers on a Bit longer than that.


You sure about that?



This insanity will continue until enough people push back.
amercer
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It's one thing to say that now, it's another to actually follow through in 5 months time when the virus is gone. Also that's from a university who was so concerned about the virus the preemptively canceled their football season, only to do a 180 when it was clear no one else would follow them.

So I don't put much stock in what they say today. The new president of A&M says fall will be normal.
ExpressAg11
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Exactly. That is why I was asking people's opinion. Because all we've been hearing is that everything should be almost normal by September. Yet places like Ohio St and others don't seem to care what the data says. As long as there is >0 cases in their area, it's full time restrictions.
Aggie95
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Just about the time "normal" rolls around, the immunity from vaccines and COVID recovery will be waning or gone and the powerbrokers will have us right were they want us....especially when cases start to spike again around fall/winter.
KlinkerAg11
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I'm not sure, I think it'll depend where you live.

I thought there would be more excitement about the future considering how effective the vaccines have been.
riverrataggie
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We should have never let it get this far without understanding what the end game is, what success looks like.

The fact many like Fauci can still not iterate this makes me certain this will not be over by fall unless he does a 180 on wanting to win against this virus.
ORAggieFan
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CA has announced lifting of capacity restrictions June 15. That will likely have some ripple effects to other Dem ran states.
beerad12man
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amercer said:

It's one thing to say that now, it's another to actually follow through in 5 months time when the virus is gone. Also that's from a university who was so concerned about the virus the preemptively canceled their football season, only to do a 180 when it was clear no one else would follow them.

So I don't put much stock in what they say today. The new president of A&M says fall will be normal.
Hope you're right. I THINK cooler heads will prevail and you will be right. But I have some doubts just based on some of the decisions made throughout the process.

For Ohio State to put that up just shows a complete lack of reality, and all this coming from 18-21 year olds, who this is basically the flu for. By the fall, especially, with the immunity we'll have, it will be no different than the flu for anyone under 50, or anyone who's been vaccinated.

Either way, eventually we are going to have to do away with all the daily trackers, publicizing of it, and the overall public health message we currently have. Even if we all but eradicate covid, it could spike somewhere, and you might have 200 deaths a day for a couple of weeks, and people will be freaking out again, completely misinterpreting their relative risk.
Gordo14
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My personal take is that anything less than completely removing restrictions (without a significant change in vaccine effectiveness) by mid-May/June or so is bull***** I do think we need to remain vigilant particularly through next winter, but no reason to act until we see a problem developing.
AggieOO
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amercer said:

It's one thing to say that now, it's another to actually follow through in 5 months time when the virus is gone. Also that's from a university who was so concerned about the virus the preemptively canceled their football season, only to do a 180 when it was clear no one else would follow them.


Actually, ohio state was right there with Nebraska fighting for the season. They just got screwed by the big 10.
Tex117
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Insanity.

If you get the vaccine, you are done. That's it.

I haven't been jabbed twice (and had covid) to be told I still have to do a bunch of b.s.!
Capitol Ag
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Tex117 said:

Insanity.

If you get the vaccine, you are done. That's it.

I haven't been jabbed twice (and had covid) to be told I still have to do a bunch of b.s.!
A lot of truth here. To many of us, once the vaccine has kicked in 10 days after the 2nd dose, we should be exempt from any and all Covid restrictions moving forward. The worst thing Fauci did was state that the vaccinated still need to follow protocols. Sure, that was a month or 2 ago, but as more and more studies show that the vaccinated cannot pass the virus easily at all, the CDC or Fauci needs to come out and state that the vaccinated go get back to normal. Why else did we vaccinate in the first place?

We let a genie out of a bottle with all of this unfortunately. It will be very hard to get it back into the bottle. I think that returning to normal will look different depending on which state and region that one is in. In Texas, it's now just up to businesses to feel comfortable to lessen their restrictions on distancing and masks. Honestly, no place really follows the 6 foot rule any more, and more and more I go into places that are not enforcing masking at all even with signage stating masks "must" be worn. I see things getting looser and looser as the weeks go on. I find it interesting that I was at Grandscape in The Colony out side of Scheels (where they do not enforce masking at all) and outside there was a band playing in front of a large turf field with kids playing and people hanging out. Some were masked up hard and others (the vast majority) were not. Whether these masked people were really "virtue signaling" or not or just too uncomfortable not to wear one in public, who knows. It was strange that of the ones that were masked outside, no attempt was made to unmask when seeing so many not wearing them and being outside, in the sun, did not dissuade them from wearing the mask. Their choice. But, that was a very small portion. I think they are an example of the time it will take to rid all our minds of this. Some will never feel comfortable but it's becoming very evident to me that things are loosening up quickly with most and more are joining those ranks every day. So I see TX being almost fully normal by the summer with outlier businesses, stores and restaurants enforcing things but most saying screw it.

I try to have grace with those still uncomfortable. I like the use of the phrase "rip off the bandaid" that a coworker used. People will feel uncomfortable and be leery until that moment happens where the bandaid is fully ripped off and they realize they are not going to suddenly die. From there is becomes a heck of a lot easier to loosen up moving forward.

Oh, and our school district (Prosper) announced publicly that masks will be optional in the fall.
beerad12man
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Good stuff. Here in texas, I think it will be a normal summer. Probably some lingering mask usage, but it coming down little by little. Maybe 50/50 wearing them versus not? I don't know exactly. But mostly as normal. But other areas might be far behind. In Texas, many of us have seen areas without masks, social distancing, etc., since April of 2020 , and are already familiar with the old way of life.

I do tend to think this is a big issue. For many, it will be a major adjustment. For many Texans, meh. It will be the same, except seeing a bit fewer masks.
tylercsbn9
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I am hoping with all the schools around Houston getting rid of the mask mandate it will lead to more and more people shedding them in the coming months.

There will still people with COVID PTSD that keep wearing them. I'd really like ot know what it would get for them to get rid of them. They all talk about the fact that you can still spread even after the vaccine but the chances are extremely minimal. As someone else pointed out, Fauci and his messaging months ago has lead to this nonsense.
cone
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i can't imagine a sea change among elite public opinion unless the politics change dramatically and/or we get through the 2021-2022 cold/flu season without much fanfare

it's going to take a reversion to the mean compared to 2020-2021 cold/flu to shake off the precautionary principle

there are going to be lots of place back to normal this summer, but there's going to be a lot of push to repeat our NPI practices going into November

it's much easier to program during a crisis than to de-program after the crisis
Fitch
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Assuming 75% pop vaccinated with at least one dose - back to 99% normal by August. International travel will be tricky for a year or more.

Mask usage slowly tapers down one locality at a time after above vaccine threshold met but goes slow because of patchwork of regulatory requirements nationwide. Coinflip if they become fixtures for some people when feeling sick or going into large crowd events or flying.
GAC06
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Even specifying 75% of adults, that's too high when you factor in natural immunity. Since children aren't being vaccinated, 75% overall is basically 100% and not achievable
Capitol Ag
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The other issue is how individuals and governments define the overall objective of their own choices or policies, respectively. Should it be controlling spread to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed or be about saving 1 person's life? B/c that, to me, is the center of the debate and where this gets so heated. I feel once the hospitals are safe, you open fully with 0 restrictions. Others obviously feel that as long as Covid exists out there and a person could die, we need to stay "vigilant". And to argue against that potentially makes one seem insensitive. Authorities made this sound like it was about hospitals initially, but the message shifted dramatically early on to saving every life as possible and the messaging has never been differentiated by the CDC, Fauci or anyone else who has control over the messaging. That will be a big problem moving forward given it seems policy makers want 0 risk. Something we didn't have before, but now too many seem to be pushing for that. I agree that if flu season has any major uptick this fall there will be those who call for continued masking and distancing. Heck, some want us to keep masking going forward after Covid. Doubt that wins out but it's out there.
West Point Aggie
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Oh but the variants...the variants...the double variants...the scary variants!

This will be used a lot as we transition to summer and eventually fall!
Let’s Go Brandon!
Tex117
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Capitol Ag said:

Tex117 said:

Insanity.

If you get the vaccine, you are done. That's it.

I haven't been jabbed twice (and had covid) to be told I still have to do a bunch of b.s.!
A lot of truth here. To many of us, once the vaccine has kicked in 10 days after the 2nd dose, we should be exempt from any and all Covid restrictions moving forward. The worst thing Fauci did was state that the vaccinated still need to follow protocols. Sure, that was a month or 2 ago, but as more and more studies show that the vaccinated cannot pass the virus easily at all, the CDC or Fauci needs to come out and state that the vaccinated go get back to normal. Why else did we vaccinate in the first place?

We let a genie out of a bottle with all of this unfortunately. It will be very hard to get it back into the bottle. I think that returning to normal will look different depending on which state and region that one is in. In Texas, it's now just up to businesses to feel comfortable to lessen their restrictions on distancing and masks. Honestly, no place really follows the 6 foot rule any more, and more and more I go into places that are not enforcing masking at all even with signage stating masks "must" be worn. I see things getting looser and looser as the weeks go on. I find it interesting that I was at Grandscape in The Colony out side of Scheels (where they do not enforce masking at all) and outside there was a band playing in front of a large turf field with kids playing and people hanging out. Some were masked up hard and others (the vast majority) were not. Whether these masked people were really "virtue signaling" or not or just too uncomfortable not to wear one in public, who knows. It was strange that of the ones that were masked outside, no attempt was made to unmask when seeing so many not wearing them and being outside, in the sun, did not dissuade them from wearing the mask. Their choice. But, that was a very small portion. I think they are an example of the time it will take to rid all our minds of this. Some will never feel comfortable but it's becoming very evident to me that things are loosening up quickly with most and more are joining those ranks every day. So I see TX being almost fully normal by the summer with outlier businesses, stores and restaurants enforcing things but most saying screw it.

I try to have grace with those still uncomfortable. I like the use of the phrase "rip off the bandaid" that a coworker used. People will feel uncomfortable and be leery until that moment happens where the bandaid is fully ripped off and they realize they are not going to suddenly die. From there is becomes a heck of a lot easier to loosen up moving forward.

Oh, and our school district (Prosper) announced publicly that masks will be optional in the fall.
Right here. Great post.

I do think as more and more people get vaccinated (and summer kicks in around Memorial Day), and businesses can say their employees have had an opportunity to be vaccinated, then its going to rapidly change back to normal.

Slowly at first, but then quickly.

Fauci (and other leaders) made one more bad calculation when they said you still had to adhere to protocols. No. Eff that. That's not the deal. I didn't take an experimental vaccine in the arm to then say well, you still have to do what we tell you to because......reasons.

I don't let myself get too worked up over this though. This WILL occur naturally (its amazing how quickly you get some confidence once you get the vaccine). In Texas especially. Once HEB declares it over, then its probably over. ha.
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Tex117
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SoupNazi2001 said:

Tex117 said:

Capitol Ag said:

Tex117 said:

Insanity.

If you get the vaccine, you are done. That's it.

I haven't been jabbed twice (and had covid) to be told I still have to do a bunch of b.s.!
A lot of truth here. To many of us, once the vaccine has kicked in 10 days after the 2nd dose, we should be exempt from any and all Covid restrictions moving forward. The worst thing Fauci did was state that the vaccinated still need to follow protocols. Sure, that was a month or 2 ago, but as more and more studies show that the vaccinated cannot pass the virus easily at all, the CDC or Fauci needs to come out and state that the vaccinated go get back to normal. Why else did we vaccinate in the first place?

We let a genie out of a bottle with all of this unfortunately. It will be very hard to get it back into the bottle. I think that returning to normal will look different depending on which state and region that one is in. In Texas, it's now just up to businesses to feel comfortable to lessen their restrictions on distancing and masks. Honestly, no place really follows the 6 foot rule any more, and more and more I go into places that are not enforcing masking at all even with signage stating masks "must" be worn. I see things getting looser and looser as the weeks go on. I find it interesting that I was at Grandscape in The Colony out side of Scheels (where they do not enforce masking at all) and outside there was a band playing in front of a large turf field with kids playing and people hanging out. Some were masked up hard and others (the vast majority) were not. Whether these masked people were really "virtue signaling" or not or just too uncomfortable not to wear one in public, who knows. It was strange that of the ones that were masked outside, no attempt was made to unmask when seeing so many not wearing them and being outside, in the sun, did not dissuade them from wearing the mask. Their choice. But, that was a very small portion. I think they are an example of the time it will take to rid all our minds of this. Some will never feel comfortable but it's becoming very evident to me that things are loosening up quickly with most and more are joining those ranks every day. So I see TX being almost fully normal by the summer with outlier businesses, stores and restaurants enforcing things but most saying screw it.

I try to have grace with those still uncomfortable. I like the use of the phrase "rip off the bandaid" that a coworker used. People will feel uncomfortable and be leery until that moment happens where the bandaid is fully ripped off and they realize they are not going to suddenly die. From there is becomes a heck of a lot easier to loosen up moving forward.

Oh, and our school district (Prosper) announced publicly that masks will be optional in the fall.
Right here. Great post.

This WILL occur naturally (its amazing how quickly you get some confidence once you get the vaccine).


Just pointing out that this comment you make about confidence you get after the vaccine is how people who recovered from a mild Covid case have felt for much longer.
I know. I had it. Felt like Wolverine.

Just saying I suspect others to feel that way after the vaccine.
Capitol Ag
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Quote:

I know. I had it. Felt like Wolverine.
cone
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as expected, public health already setting the predicate for social distancing guidance in cold/flu season post-mass vaccination
beerad12man
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No, f*** them. Get out and live your life. People already are in plenty of places.
Tex117
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cone said:



as expected, public health already setting the predicate for social distancing guidance in cold/flu season post-mass vaccination
Yeah, maybe he isn't.

I am. He can eff off with this.
ExpressAg11
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Figures. Leaders will continue to move the goal post every time things start to look better. Meet one goal, welp, "what about the fall? It could come back so we have to keep mandates in place."
Fitch
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Not that you're wrong, but Gottlieb is on Pfizer's board, not a politician. Closest he's been to politics in an official manner is as Commissioner of the FDA under Trump.
cone
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Fitch said:

Not that you're wrong, but Gottlieb is on Pfizer's board, not a politician. Closest he's been to politics in an official manner is as Commissioner of the FDA under Trump.
weird that a Pfizer board member is ****ting on his miracle vaccine on CNBC

no reason you can't have a holiday party in December if everyone is Pfizer vaccinated and received their just-in-time booster
beerad12man
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One thing I fear we have done to far too many people that might take some time to get them out of is their relative risk/reward assessment chart. For some reason, too many people overestimate their risk of death from covid, but underestimated their risk of death from all other things in life they just took for granted.

It's because it is a new risk, and I have no doubts some will heed advice like this, even if completely irrational and unecessary.
Fitch
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cone said:

Fitch said:

Not that you're wrong, but Gottlieb is on Pfizer's board, not a politician. Closest he's been to politics in an official manner is as Commissioner of the FDA under Trump.
weird that a Pfizer board member is ****ting on his miracle vaccine on CNBC

no reason you can't have a holiday party in December if everyone is Pfizer vaccinated and received their just-in-time booster

Weirder still that a beat journalist from Slate cherry picked quotes that fit the bill for continued panic when the other 95% of what was said was all about going back to work and normalcy this summer and fall. Or is it?
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