There has been a lot of teeth gnashing about the slow pace of vaccinations, however vaccine delivery has been growing daily (7-day average) at a significant rate, doubling in the last week.

One thing that I'm encouraged by is that even at this peak of infections, we are finally beginning to see vaccinations meet/exceed daily infections. To estimate daily infections, I'm using covid19-projections.com nowcast model, which estimates total infections, since as you know we only capture a fraction of infections through testing.

Below is the dashboard I maintain to try to see the full picture all at once. It seems like there's a dip forming in the hospitalizations. I surely hope it's the case, we need the relief.

It's like one of the largest ramp ups of delivery of an extremely high demand product a month after approval with at least 5-10 days of getting a large amount of shipments out was gonna to take a little bit of time. Not to mention any speed bumps initially as is the case with a lot of large endeavors.

Quite frankly, we're a month out from APPROVAL of two vaccines, so I'm still majorly impressed despite the groaning that's been going on the past two weeks.

Let's get this vaccine in people and have full stands in Aggieland this fall!

Beat40 said:

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It's like one of the largest ramp ups of delivery of an extremely high demand product a month after approval with at least 5-10 days of getting a large amount of shipments out was gonna to take a little bit of time. Not to mention any speed bumps initially as is the case with a lot of large endeavors.

Quite frankly, we're a month out from APPROVAL of two vaccines, so I'm still majorly impressed despite the groaning that's been going on the past two weeks.

Let's get this vaccine in people and have full stands in Aggieland this fall!

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I agree with everything you say about how impressive the rollout has been, but I do have one small but important comment on your post:

The vaccines are *not* FDA approved. They are being administered under an Emergency Use Authorization, which is very different from full FDA approval.

New case numbers trending down, 7-day average plummeting

Let's see if this holds

Seems likely things would start trending down on their own but hopefully ramped up vaccinations can accelerate the trend and prevent another spike

More vaccines + out of holiday season + warmer temps in the south should have us at or very near the peak by end of January

I hope that by April we are done with this and can get back to a much more normal life

I got my parents, in-laws, brother and husband all registered to receive vaccine today. I'm so happy!

By the way, thank you for providing this information. Very good to see a possibility that hospitalizations are peaking. I hope it's true and that a downward trend keeps on happening.

I definitely value the collating of information from you and Fitch. Y'all have been work horses these pat several months.

Whatever makes people feel good so we can be done with this stupid crap

More than 15MM people have gotten their first dose of the vaccine and we are now administering more than 1MM vaccines per day total. Daily vaccinations is growing strongly, still, despite pessimism. At this pace, we will vaccinate more people than the total number of reported coronavirus cases (with the first dose) within 10 days.


Additionally, Moderna released a press release saying that their vaccine continues to be effective against the new variants: "The study showed no significant impact on neutralizing titers against the B.1.1.7 variant relative to prior variants. A six-fold reduction in neutralizing titers was observed with the B.1.351 variant relative to prior variants. Despite this reduction, neutralizing titer levels with B.1.351 remain above levels that are expected to be protective."
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against

cone said:

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A six-fold reduction in neutralizing titers was observed with the B.1.351 variant relative to prior variants.

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yikes

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Don't forget this part:

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Despite this reduction, neutralizing titer levels with B.1.351 remain above levels that are expected to be protective.

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cone said:

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i guess proof of the pudding is in the eating

"expected to be protective". not sure what that means. you can read a lot into it.

i fully expect another booster by late 2021 - hope that's reasonable and mitigation methods help us get there

definitely not putting my n95 away any time soon

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Vaccines are producing protective levels beyond what natural immunity gives people. Even with a reduction in efficacy, it can still be effective in preventing illness.

cone said:

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Even with a reduction in efficacy, it can still be effective in preventing illness.

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but that hasn't been proven yet, right?

this is their best guess given what little they know

listen i hope you're right - just seems to me like it moves the pandemic more to the right, and keeps my caution level up. might start re-thinking summer travel even after vaccination, that sort of thing.

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Man I'm the exact opposite, getting travel plans even just tentatively in place is keeping my morale up. I need something to look forward to by middle to end of this year on the travel front

I went to a resort in Mexico for Thanksgiving. It was limited to 25% capacity and was way cheaper than the previous time I booked/cancelled my reservation for Spring Break. Wore N95s and face shields in transit especially on the plane. Had a wonderful, socially-distant time - mostly outdoors around the pool and the beach. Very happy I did so, badly needed.

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Who said this?

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Cone . .to himself.

A lot of things "can" and "might" happen but you can't live like that forever (or I guess you can). As for me, I just got my second shot today and starting in 7 days I'm going back to living like normal and hope they get boosters when the vaccine no longer works as well and I'll take those too. Been stuck in a crappy world for a whole year, there is a point of diminishing returns and if I have to continue living scared and afraid of everyday life well maybe it's worth getting covid instead as I'm losing large portions of quality life with quarantine. Once the wife gets her shot, we are all going out and traveling and not looking back. If my kids get sick or we adults (having been vaccinated) get sick and still pass away (given such a small percentage chance for children and those vaccinated) well then it was just meant to be. But to each their own I guess.