We've lived in a "just another two weeks" state for almost a year now, but the way I see it, there IS an end in sight. Just no one is talking about it.

I started thinking about this once vaccine distribution was imminent.

Obviously, it's still pretty hard to get a vaccine, but that's not going to last for ever. Once distribution becomes "steady state" and any adult over age 18 can make an appointment at a clinic to get a vaccine, masks, social distancing, restaurant restrictions, etc., should be lifted.

Notice I said "any adult over age 18 can make an appointment to get a vaccine" and not "once a certain percentage of adults are vaccinated". Because we know not everyone will get vaccinated. Honestly, I think we might get to 30% at best (I hope I'm wrong).

We shouldn't have to wait around for a certain percentage of the population to actually get the vaccine because that may never happen. If an adult chooses to not get vaccinated, then no one else has any responsibility for protecting that person from the virus.

But, once the vaccine is available to any adult who wants one, in my mind, this is over.

You should actually be able to "calculate" the "this is over" (or "open back up") date for each state by knowing 1) the number of vaccine doses that have been distributed (and presumably made available) to each state, and 2) the population of adults over 18 in the state.

Why isn't anyone talking about this? Is it just to early? Or is "leadership" not thinking in this mindset at all?

I feel like if someone stepped up and started talking about this, it would go a long way towards boosting morale and helping people see the "light at the end of the tunnel".

Haven't you heard? Shut downs and masks are the new normal.

Btw, I agree with everything you said. Unfortunately that's not how it will work because our leaders care more about control than what actually makes sense.

Governors like Abbott and DeSantis need to start getting a message like this out there.

I'll try not to say too much to get this thread moved, but money is going to run out if you don't TRY to open.

I think that's why you see some political figures now talking about reopening, you can look at your yearly outlook and realize money is going to run out if things aren't open to tax.

I agree with everything TXTransplant said, to add to your metric for opening we have 27 million adults in Texas.

Not sure how long it will take to have enough vaccine available for that.

I was trying to keep this from being political because that metric is pure data/numbers. No opinions or what abouts or feelings.

I think distribution is still too slow right now, but once it ramps up and reaches steady state, the date ought to be predictable.

And it's not just about "opening back up", it's about mask requirements, this new (stupid) CDC rule about having to have a negative test to reenter the country, etc.

If there are 27 million adults in Texas, seems like 15 million-ish vaccines could be a starting point. Or just go by the metric that, on any given day, a person can got to the HEB or Harris Co Pulbic Health and get a poke.

It's on the horizon. Right now there are more hospitalizations and more daily cases than at any other point, plus the political theater going on it's all pretty much drowning out that quite quietly the vaccines are ramping up.

The below has been posted before, from: https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

Ideally vaccine distributions continue to scale up and hit or exceed 1M / day. I'm hopeful we're back to 100% normal (domestically) when schools start back in the fall.

AggieSarah01 said:

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The New Mexico governor just said that masks and distancing will be required until most people have been vaccinated, but she did not clarify a percentage, other than saying it will probably be at least late summer or fall.

Currently indoor dining will remain closed until there are fewer than 8 cases per 100,000 in a county...which they are predicting won't happen for several more months.

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That metric is misguided. I honestly don't think we will get to "most" people being vaccinated, at least not this year. That's why I suggested it be based on availability. The economy and other people's freedoms shouldn't be penalized because some people choose not to get vaccinated, and we shouldn't force vaccinations on people. Basing it on the percentage of people vaccinated is just another way to drag this out even longer than necessary.

Ugh...I hadn't thought of that (and don't want to).

FTR, I plan on getting the vaccine. I just don't think the govt should force anyone to. Choose not to get it, and suffer the repercussions.

I see no reason to be less than 100% open once 1B has been vaccinated

I still come back to the thought that what are these things that are "closed" that need to be "open" that aren't right now?

Maybe I live in a sheltered world, but the ISD is open, restaurants are open, bars are open. There's not a damn thing I want to do that I can't. Right now. And it's been that way more or less since May.

I know some school districts remain remote, and that sucks. It seems the right thing to do there is vax up all the teachers and 1b parents and go. Which is, in fact, the plan right now.

The first rule is if something doesn't work stop doing it.

GAC06 said:

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amercer said:

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Where I live there will be shutdowns until we are under 5/100,000. I assume masks will be required until fall. I don't know how long the public will comply with that.

I'm in the bluest of blue places, but the current numbers tell me that a lot of people aren't following the rules now, so it's hard to imagine many will when things start looking better.

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That's convenient because by fall we can worry about the flu or new strains or a "fourth wave". Mask up and stay safe.

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I'm not planning to ever don a mask again, but they have been exceptionally successful against the flu this year.

amercer said:

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GAC06 said:

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amercer said:

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Where I live there will be shutdowns until we are under 5/100,000. I assume masks will be required until fall. I don't know how long the public will comply with that.

I'm in the bluest of blue places, but the current numbers tell me that a lot of people aren't following the rules now, so it's hard to imagine many will when things start looking better.

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That's convenient because by fall we can worry about the flu or new strains or a "fourth wave". Mask up and stay safe.

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I'm not planning to ever don a mask again, but they have been exceptionally successful against the flu this year.

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Maybe they have. I think they have helped. It could also be distancing and the fact that people are actually staying home when they feel sick.

Just to many variables to single out one thing for sure.

culdeus said:

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I still come back to the thought that what are these things that are "closed" that need to be "open" that aren't right now?

Maybe I live in a sheltered world, but the ISD is open, restaurants are open, bars are open. There's not a damn thing I want to do that I can't. Right now. And it's been that way more or less since May.

I know some school districts remain remote, and that sucks. It seems the right thing to do there is vax up all the teachers and 1b parents and go. Which is, in fact, the plan right now.

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I think the question, essentially, the OP is asking is when can we get back to living as normal.

I'd like to walk in a store without wearing a mask. I'd like to go to an Astros game at full capacity with no mask and take my son.

Just because things are open doesn't mean things are normal.

I'm ready to get the vaccine in people so we can go back to living normally.

I have now experienced this pandemic living in three different countries. I was in Guatemala for the first three months, in Texas for 2 months, and I've been in Colombia since late July. All three handled things very differently and all three seemed to follow the same pattern of an initial wave that lasted a few months, followed by a decline, followed by another wave.

Guatemala had a 4 pm curfew and closed restaurants, bars, etc. Texas was basically completely open during the time I was there. Colombia had one of the strictest lockdowns in the world for almost 6 months. All handled things differently but all followed the same pattern regarding cases. I do not believe lockdowns work.

We should focus on common sense measures like wearing masks, social distancing in public, etc. The lockdowns are pointless. Work on getting as many people vaccinated as fast as possible.

AggieSarah01 said:

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Yes, some places are still really locked down. I'd be happy just to get lowered-capacity indoor dining back, as well as not force young children into masks while exercising. It's just wrong.

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I mean that's fair, but 4,500 Americans dying from COVID every day is also wrong. I think it's resonable we try to prevent it from reaching 6,000+ deaths every day. The pandemic is what's wrong above all else.

"Usual suspects... broken record"

Followed by:

"This has been discussed many times before..."

GAC06 said:

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"Usual suspects... broken record"

Followed by:

"This has been discussed many times before..."

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Doesn't understand what the term broken record means. I don't post the reopening timeline on every thread regardless of subject. But good point.

Can't wait for you guys to hijack the next thread to make it about masks and how you think they do nothing because you don't like them. Then we'll talk about the bars being closed and how it's all about permenant government control. Nothing means anything so let's party like it's 2019. It's always really useful and insightful commentary.

Flagged for derailing