52,000 new cases the other day...will be very interesting to watch if a significant number are "reinfections". Based on population, that would be like the US hitting 260k new cases in one day...or more than 3x our current daily record.
Post Reply
1 of 1
Big spike in France?
3,881 Views |
22 Replies |
Last: 3 yr ago by Old RV Ag
All of Europe is blowing up...it's almost like the virus is acting like a virus and spreading.
Did they stop wearing masks? If not, how do we explain this, unless, masks don't work?
Getting colder, people are more indoors. Not a lot of air flow and social distancing becomes much harder.
France is still significantly behind us on cases/million. No reason to think these are reinfections instead of a spread amongst never be infected persons.
This is just another data point that shutdowns delay spread, they don't permanently eliminate the risk of infection.
This is just another data point that shutdowns delay spread, they don't permanently eliminate the risk of infection.
This. French houses/rooms are much smaller. Much higher population density. Homes use radiant heat and do not have air circulation. Cars are much smaller. Lots more public transportation. Basically, it's really hard to spread out and social distance there as it is in the US.Moxley said:
Getting colder, people are more indoors. Not a lot of air flow and social distancing becomes much harder.
And France is a big country - as big as Texas. 
Are the spikes happening in the same areas that were hit hard in the spring? If not then it's acting exactly like it is here in the US, moving into areas that never had a first wave.
If the spikes are happening in the same areas that saw large caseloads in the spring then it's more concerning.
Are the spikes happening in the same areas that were hit hard in the spring? If not then it's acting exactly like it is here in the US, moving into areas that never had a first wave.If the spikes are happening in the same areas that saw large caseloads in the spring then it's more concerning.
Reinfections are a very, very tiny % of cases so far. Statistically insignificant.
Belgium is a small country that already had one of the highest death rates in the world.
They have a lot of muslim immigrants whose...personal hygiene is a bit different. Supposed to be the first Eurozone country to become majority muslim (10-20 years).amercer said:
Belgium is a small country that already had one of the highest death rates in the world.
Both France and Sweden have higher percentages of Muslims in their populations. Have not seen data on COVID breakdown by ethnicity, but would love to if you have.
Delay is quite literally the point of the notion of "flattening the curve."TomFoolery said:
France is still significantly behind us on cases/million. No reason to think these are reinfections instead of a spread amongst never be infected persons.
This is just another data point that shutdowns delay spread, they don't permanently eliminate the risk of infection.
The info is out there, even though it's obviously not something they trumpet;FlyRod said:
Both France and Sweden have higher percentages of Muslims in their populations. Have not seen data on COVID breakdown by ethnicity, but would love to if you have.
It's an outsized impact. Also, Belgium really is only about 10-14 years off. (They are slated to be first, regardless of total present state percentages, and note that France/Sweden are much larger populations).Quote:
In Norway, where 15% of residents were born abroad, 25% who had tested positive for COVID-19 by April 19 were foreign-born. Somalis, with 425 confirmed cases, are the largest immigrant group testing positive, accounting for 6% of all confirmed cases -- more than 10 times their share of the population.
Somalis are the most overrepresented immigrant group among Sweden's confirmed cases, as well. Their 283 positive tests account for about 5% of the nearly 6,000 cases documented between March 13 and April 7. That's seven times their share of the population. Iraqis, Syrians and Turks also made up disproportionately large shares of positive cases.
In Finland's capital city of Helsinki, the mayor said it was "worrying" that almost 200 Somalis had tested positive by mid-April. They accounted for about 17% of positive cases -- 10 times their share of the city's population.
More than 100,000 Somalia-born live in the three countries, mostly in Sweden and Norway, one of the largest Somali diasporas in the world. Many arrived as refugees of war in the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. Several factors place them more at risk of getting sick, public health officials and researchers say.
100 percent false. The point was to avoid exceeding acute care/intensive care bed capacity in an initial spike. That was it, not to delay total infections.deadbq03 said:Delay is quite literally the point of the notion of "flattening the curve."TomFoolery said:
France is still significantly behind us on cases/million. No reason to think these are reinfections instead of a spread amongst never be infected persons.
This is just another data point that shutdowns delay spread, they don't permanently eliminate the risk of infection.
Now, the whole northern hemisphere can't remain locked down as we enter fall/flu season any longer (meaning covid spread is inevitable), and the lockdowns have led to a massive spread of global poverty and economic hardship: that equals deaths.
It's both to lessen the severity of a sharp spike, and delay its onset. The goal is to lessen the amplitude of the curve, and accept that it means the curve will be wider.nortex97 said:100 percent false. The point was to avoid exceeding acute care/intensive care bed capacity in an initial spike. That was it, not to delay total infections.deadbq03 said:Delay is quite literally the point of the notion of "flattening the curve."TomFoolery said:
France is still significantly behind us on cases/million. No reason to think these are reinfections instead of a spread amongst never be infected persons.
This is just another data point that shutdowns delay spread, they don't permanently eliminate the risk of infection.
Now, the whole northern hemisphere can't remain locked down as we enter fall/flu season any longer (meaning covid spread is inevitable), and the lockdowns have led to a massive spread of global poverty and economic hardship: that equals deaths.
Whether it was worth it is certainly up to debate, but far too many people act like the goal of public health experts was to "eliminate the risk." That might've been the goal for misguided politicians and media, but flattening the curve as a concept could be a success even if the total area of the curve itself stays the same. That by its very nature means that delay is a fundamental part of the strategy.
deadbq03 said:Delay is quite literally the point of the notion of "flattening the curve."TomFoolery said:
France is still significantly behind us on cases/million. No reason to think these are reinfections instead of a spread amongst never be infected persons.
This is just another data point that shutdowns delay spread, they don't permanently eliminate the risk of infection.
A flat curve is one that stays consistent. So for example having 10k a day for 100 days rather than growing by 10k a day and having a major spike.
A complete shutdown just delays the spike. You can see on worldometer France never had a spike to flatten. Now they have a major spike that they need to flatten.
I agree with most of what you said, but France definitely had a hard hit first wave. It was due to lack of testing you don't see it. Based on deaths they had near 50k daily positives at their peak in Mid March. They likely won't hit that this wave and it's going to hit other regions more.
Nortex, thanks for those links, appreciated.
Agreed, this is why it's frustrating when people use case data to show which countries are doing better or worse. Whether the president presents is correctly or not, the US has a higher record of our cases because we were able to test at much larger numbers.
But back to France, their lockdown didn't flatten the curve it eliminated it. They averaged less than 50 deaths and a 1000 cases for 3 months. Imo I that's not what is typically meant when you take a "flatten the curve" approach. You want a certain number of people to continue to get sick so you can treat them within your available resources. A lockdown is more useful if you are using the time to build an infrastructure to treat the disease because you essentially delay any spike/outbreak
But back to France, their lockdown didn't flatten the curve it eliminated it. They averaged less than 50 deaths and a 1000 cases for 3 months. Imo I that's not what is typically meant when you take a "flatten the curve" approach. You want a certain number of people to continue to get sick so you can treat them within your available resources. A lockdown is more useful if you are using the time to build an infrastructure to treat the disease because you essentially delay any spike/outbreak
There is no real plan here.
Initially: "Two weeks to slow the spread" - flattening the curve and learning more of disease
Mid-summer: "No one should ever get sick"
Now: "Two weeks to slow the spread" - ???
Future: ???
We as a global society cannot continue the lockdowns. Full stop. They are incredibly detrimental to society and far worse than the disease.
How long can governments go without an actual strategy? They are all flying by seat of pants and it shows.
Initially: "Two weeks to slow the spread" - flattening the curve and learning more of disease
Mid-summer: "No one should ever get sick"
Now: "Two weeks to slow the spread" - ???
Future: ???
We as a global society cannot continue the lockdowns. Full stop. They are incredibly detrimental to society and far worse than the disease.
How long can governments go without an actual strategy? They are all flying by seat of pants and it shows.
No problem. The other thing to contextualize about the figures, is that the moslem population in Europe is disproportionately younger, indicating they should be...relatively healthy compared to the, well, geriatric white/native populations. Yet, this is certainly not the case with Covid (or many other diseases).FlyRod said:
Nortex, thanks for those links, appreciated.
I am not sure where we really disagree on the first few sentences there. The greater public health objective should have then been honestly communicated, such that an ILI type corona virus could be allowed to run it's course through much of the population during the...non-flu season in the northern hemisphere. Now abject fear and needing 'masks/lockdowns thru 2022' or whatever to 'flatten the curve/delay illnesses until a vaccine is everywhere' is the definition of insanity.deadbq03 said:It's both to lessen the severity of a sharp spike, and delay its onset. The goal is to lessen the amplitude of the curve, and accept that it means the curve will be wider.nortex97 said:100 percent false. The point was to avoid exceeding acute care/intensive care bed capacity in an initial spike. That was it, not to delay total infections.deadbq03 said:Delay is quite literally the point of the notion of "flattening the curve."TomFoolery said:
France is still significantly behind us on cases/million. No reason to think these are reinfections instead of a spread amongst never be infected persons.
This is just another data point that shutdowns delay spread, they don't permanently eliminate the risk of infection.
Now, the whole northern hemisphere can't remain locked down as we enter fall/flu season any longer (meaning covid spread is inevitable), and the lockdowns have led to a massive spread of global poverty and economic hardship: that equals deaths.
Whether it was worth it is certainly up to debate, but far too many people act like the goal of public health experts was to "eliminate the risk." That might've been the goal for misguided politicians and media, but flattening the curve as a concept could be a success even if the total area of the curve itself stays the same. That by its very nature means that delay is a fundamental part of the strategy.
No one can delay a novel (respiratory) virus a period of years. 2 weeks, maybe, with extreme measures. Months perhaps, if it's something like 'outbreak' or Ebola on steroids, but flattening the curve was only about handling the acute cases initially coming in/feared to be rising logarithmically.
As a Viet Nam combat vet, I can tell you it's longer than anything you can imagine. It's really scary actually.yukmonkey said:
There is no real plan here.
Initially: "Two weeks to slow the spread" - flattening the curve and learning more of disease
Mid-summer: "No one should ever get sick"
Now: "Two weeks to slow the spread" - ???
Future: ???
We as a global society cannot continue the lockdowns. Full stop. They are incredibly detrimental to society and far worse than the disease.
How long can governments go without an actual strategy? They are all flying by seat of pants and it shows.