Excess Mortality

4,066 Views | 39 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by mazag08
eric76
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For those who don't get the ProMED mailing list, you might want to consider it. The ProMED mailing list is a mailing list from the International Society of Infectious Diseases geared toward world wide reports of outbreaks of infectious diseases.

See PrMED and excess mortality

In today's update on covid-19, there was an interesting comment regarding excess mortality that surprised me. It was about where excess mortality was the largest.

From the update:
Quote:

The total number of excess deaths (deaths above average levels) from [26 Jan 2020] through [3 Oct 2020] ranged from a low of approximately 841 in the youngest age group (younger than 25 years) to a high of 94 646 among adults aged 75-84 years. However, the average percentage change in deaths over this period compared with previous years was largest for adults aged 25-44 years (26.5%) ([Figure 2: Percentage change in the weekly number of deaths in 2020 relative to average in the same weeks during 2015-2019, by age group -- United States, 2015-2019 and 2020]). Overall, numbers of deaths among persons aged younger than 25 years were 2.0% below average, and among adults aged 45-64, 65-74 years, 75-84, and 85 years or older were 14.4%, 24.1%, 21.5%, and 14.7% above average, respectively.

So a 26.5% average increase in the death rate for those between the ages of 25 and 44 years! That surprised me.

and then:
Quote:

When examined by race and ethnicity, the total numbers of excess deaths during the analysis period ranged from a low of approximately 3412 among AI/AN [non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native] persons to a high of 171 491 among White persons. For White persons, deaths were 11.9% higher when compared to average numbers during 2015-2019. However, some racial and ethnic subgroups experienced disproportionately higher percentage increases in deaths ([Figure 3 Percentage change in the weekly number of deaths in 2020 relative to average numbers in the same weeks during 2015-2019, by race and Hispanic ethnicity -- United States, 2015-2019 and 2020]). Specifically, the average percentage increase over this period was largest for Hispanic persons (53.6%). Deaths were 28.9% above average for AI/AN persons, 32.9% above average for Black persons, 34.6% above average for those of other or unknown race or ethnicity, and 36.6% above average for Asian persons.

53.6% higher for Hispanics!
rojo_ag
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Concerning statistics.

IB4 this report is dismissed.
KlinkerAg11
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Did it say what caused the excess death in the 26-44 age range?

It looks like it was just up for that age range for this year.

Makes me wonder if it's suicides.
GAC06
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Suicides and substance abuse?
TomFoolery
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We've administered 128 million COVID tests YTD and have been hypersensitive as a society since at least March to all things COVID. I would be floored if those deaths are due to COVID and we've just missed identifying them.
rojo_ag
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GAC06 said:

Suicides and substance abuse?
Okay. I would think this would be reported by at least Fox News regarding the severe spike in drug overdoses and suicides. We should be inundated with reports regarding this tragic loss of life. These causes of deaths have indeed increased and should not be dismissed, but the numbers cannot be even a majority of the excess deaths that we have experienced since March.

I searched for evidence that would reveal why we have so many excess deaths, and I have yet to fine a reputable source. Perhaps someone has a report that I am not seeing.
KlinkerAg11
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I think it'll be hard to find hard reliable data as to what was cause of death.

But just going off of covid death numbers, it's hard for me to imagine that the excess death is due to just covid.

I'm sure there are covid deaths mixed in, but something else caused the big increase imo.
amercer
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What are the actual number of deaths in the age ranges? 25-44 year old people aren't supposed to die so I'm guessing it doesn't take a lot to move the percentages.
FlyRod
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Thank you for posting this, OP. There have now been several studies (including outside the U.S.) on excess deaths due to COVID...enough to call into question the "it was likely their time to go anyway" narrative that has made the rounds.
KlinkerAg11
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I'm not sure that's what this is.

I think it's just showing an increase in excess deaths.
AgsMyDude
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FlyRod said:

Thank you for posting this, OP. There have now been several studies (including outside the U.S.) on excess deaths due to COVID...enough to call into question the "it was likely their time to go anyway" narrative that has made the rounds.

We're discussing the excess mortality for adults aged 25-44 years.

Not really their time to go.
FlyRod
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Oh my bad. I thought the following was posted for a reason.

Quote:

Quote:
The total number of excess deaths (deaths above average levels) from [26 Jan 2020] through [3 Oct 2020] ranged from a low of approximately 841 in the youngest age group (younger than 25 years) to a high of 94 646 among adults aged 75-84 years. However, the average percentage change in deaths over this period compared with previous years was largest for adults aged 25-44 years (26.5%) ([Figure 2: Percentage change in the weekly number of deaths in 2020 relative to average in the same weeks during 2015-2019, by age group -- United States, 2015-2019 and 2020]). Overall, numbers of deaths among persons aged younger than 25 years were 2.0% below average, and among adults aged 45-64, 65-74 years, 75-84, and 85 years or older were 14.4%, 24.1%, 21.5%, and 14.7% above average, respectively.
eric76
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The ProMED report came from the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

From the report:

Quote:

The findings in this report are subject to at least five limitations. First, the weighting of provisional NVSS mortality data might not fully account for reporting lags, particularly in recent weeks. Estimated numbers of deaths in the most recent weeks are likely underestimated and will increase as more data become available. Second, there is uncertainty associated with the models used to generate the expected numbers of deaths in a given week. A range of values for excess death estimates is provided elsewhere (7), but these ranges might not reflect all of the sources of uncertainty, such as the completeness of provisional data. Third, different methods or models for estimating the expected numbers of deaths might lead to different results. Estimates of the number or percentage of deaths above average levels by race/ethnicity and age reported here might not sum to the total numbers of excess deaths reported elsewhere, which might have been estimated using different methodologies. Fourth, using the average numbers of deaths from past years might underestimate the total expected numbers because of population growth or aging, or because of increasing trends in certain causes such as drug overdose mortality. Finally, estimates of excess deaths attributed to COVID-19 might underestimate the actual number directly attributable to COVID-19, because deaths from other causes might represent misclassified COVID-19related deaths or deaths indirectly caused by the pandemic. Specifically, deaths from circulatory diseases, Alzheimer disease and dementia, and respiratory diseases have increased in 2020 relative to past years (7), and it is unclear to what extent these represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths or deaths indirectly related to the pandemic (e.g., because of disruptions in health care access or utilization).

Despite these limitations, however, this report demonstrates important trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. These results provide more information about deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic and inform public health messaging and mitigation efforts focused on the prevention of infection and mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and the elimination of health inequities. CDC continues to recommend the use of masks, frequent handwashing, and maintenance of social distancing to prevent COVID-19.
TheMasterplan
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Isn't the COVID survival rate for 25-44 year 99.98%?

Aggies2009
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TheMasterplan said:

Isn't the COVID survival rate for 25-44 year 99.98%?




Yep. In the US, only 6000 in that age range have died with COVID (not necessarily from COVID... With COVID)

Doesn't really account for the 26% increase...
wtmartinaggie
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You have to wonder if it's because people can't get into a doctor. Say you have a weird lump or pain that you used to would have gone to the doctor for but now don't because you're afraid of COVID or the practice can't take you...

if it turns out it's cancer and you missed the window, that could contribute to the number... i'm not saying that's it, but i'm sure it is a combination of factors. emotional health is proven to be correlated to overcoming any health issue, and this year hasnt exactly been a positive one for many people.
cone
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how many usually die in a year in that age range?
rojo_ag
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wtmartinaggie said:

You have to wonder if it's because people can't get into a doctor. Say you have a weird lump or pain that you used to would have gone to the doctor for but now don't because you're afraid of COVID or the practice can't take you...

if it turns out it's cancer and you missed the window, that could contribute to the number... i'm not saying that's it, but i'm sure it is a combination of factors. emotional health is proven to be correlated to overcoming any health issue, and this year hasnt exactly been a positive one for many people.


I don't believe that is it. Whenever there is a spike in deaths, the same region experiences a spike in excess deaths. I doubt a substantial number of people who had undiagnosed cancer would die at the same time as a particular region has a spike.

I don't know why some posters are so adamant to reject the notion that there are excess deaths associated with Covid. Every country that has had a spike in deaths has also had a spike in excess deaths.
Aggies2009
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rojo_ag said:

wtmartinaggie said:

You have to wonder if it's because people can't get into a doctor. Say you have a weird lump or pain that you used to would have gone to the doctor for but now don't because you're afraid of COVID or the practice can't take you...

if it turns out it's cancer and you missed the window, that could contribute to the number... i'm not saying that's it, but i'm sure it is a combination of factors. emotional health is proven to be correlated to overcoming any health issue, and this year hasnt exactly been a positive one for many people.


I don't believe that is it. Whenever there is a spike in deaths, the same region experiences a spike in excess deaths. I doubt a substantial number of people who had undiagnosed cancer would die at the same time as a particular region has a spike.

I don't know why some posters are so adamant to reject the notion that there are excess deaths associated with Covid. Every country that has had a spike in deaths has also had a spike in excess deaths.


Some of us just want some empirical evidence before we decide COVID is a killing machine that's worth shutting our economy down over.
amercer
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I'm too lazy to hunt down the data, but it should be available. So if anyone wants to win the internets, find the annual deaths for the last few years in that age demographic and then compare to the reported Covid deaths for that group.

2 minutes of searching found death rates per 100k for each 10 year age group, but that leaves a little math to answer the question.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality/gmwk23r.htm
cone
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it's harder to find the raw numbers than I expected
dermdoc
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eric76 said:

For those who don't get the ProMED mailing list, you might want to consider it. The ProMED mailing list is a mailing list from the International Society of Infectious Diseases geared toward world wide reports of outbreaks of infectious diseases.

See PrMED and excess mortality

In today's update on covid-19, there was an interesting comment regarding excess mortality that surprised me. It was about where excess mortality was the largest.

From the update:
Quote:

The total number of excess deaths (deaths above average levels) from [26 Jan 2020] through [3 Oct 2020] ranged from a low of approximately 841 in the youngest age group (younger than 25 years) to a high of 94 646 among adults aged 75-84 years. However, the average percentage change in deaths over this period compared with previous years was largest for adults aged 25-44 years (26.5%) ([Figure 2: Percentage change in the weekly number of deaths in 2020 relative to average in the same weeks during 2015-2019, by age group -- United States, 2015-2019 and 2020]). Overall, numbers of deaths among persons aged younger than 25 years were 2.0% below average, and among adults aged 45-64, 65-74 years, 75-84, and 85 years or older were 14.4%, 24.1%, 21.5%, and 14.7% above average, respectively.

So a 26.5% average increase in the death rate for those between the ages of 25 and 44 years! That surprised me.

and then:
Quote:

When examined by race and ethnicity, the total numbers of excess deaths during the analysis period ranged from a low of approximately 3412 among AI/AN [non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native] persons to a high of 171 491 among White persons. For White persons, deaths were 11.9% higher when compared to average numbers during 2015-2019. However, some racial and ethnic subgroups experienced disproportionately higher percentage increases in deaths ([Figure 3 Percentage change in the weekly number of deaths in 2020 relative to average numbers in the same weeks during 2015-2019, by race and Hispanic ethnicity -- United States, 2015-2019 and 2020]). Specifically, the average percentage increase over this period was largest for Hispanic persons (53.6%). Deaths were 28.9% above average for AI/AN persons, 32.9% above average for Black persons, 34.6% above average for those of other or unknown race or ethnicity, and 36.6% above average for Asian persons.

53.6% higher for Hispanics!
With all due respect, that is horrible methodology. And if this is trying to link to Covid it falls way short.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
dermdoc
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And since we all die, what is excess mortality? Maybe a study of earlier than predicted mortality is warranted but your study does not mention that.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
GAC06
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rojo_ag said:

wtmartinaggie said:

You have to wonder if it's because people can't get into a doctor. Say you have a weird lump or pain that you used to would have gone to the doctor for but now don't because you're afraid of COVID or the practice can't take you...

if it turns out it's cancer and you missed the window, that could contribute to the number... i'm not saying that's it, but i'm sure it is a combination of factors. emotional health is proven to be correlated to overcoming any health issue, and this year hasnt exactly been a positive one for many people.


I don't believe that is it. Whenever there is a spike in deaths, the same region experiences a spike in excess deaths. I doubt a substantial number of people who had undiagnosed cancer would die at the same time as a particular region has a spike.

I don't know why some posters are so adamant to reject the notion that there are excess deaths associated with Covid. Every country that has had a spike in deaths has also had a spike in excess deaths.


Wouldn't areas that are hard hit see an increase in people reticent to see the doctor for check ups or preventative medicine? Likewise, in hard hit areas wouldn't there be more draconian lockdowns? The kind that may lead to excess deaths?
eric76
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I skipped a scheduled doctor's visit in mid June partly because of covid. When I went to the doctor's office in May after I found out that I had been exposed to someone with covid, it was so surreal that I felt like I was in a post apocalyptic movie.
amercer
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New study today showing that the initial lockdown in Massachusetts had no effect on suicide rates.

Data takes a while for this apparently because all suicides require an investigation so the cause of death isn't formal for months.
KlinkerAg11
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I think it's clear to me that finding pure data that isn't messed with related to covid is going to be hard to come by.

That goes for both sides, the group that wants to act like covid isn't an issue, and the group that wants to act like covid is the only issue.

But sadly that's where we are with this. To even ask questions a lot of times makes you "not liking the answer".For me that's not it at all, I'd just like a clear picture.
ORAggieFan
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rojo_ag said:

wtmartinaggie said:

You have to wonder if it's because people can't get into a doctor. Say you have a weird lump or pain that you used to would have gone to the doctor for but now don't because you're afraid of COVID or the practice can't take you...

if it turns out it's cancer and you missed the window, that could contribute to the number... i'm not saying that's it, but i'm sure it is a combination of factors. emotional health is proven to be correlated to overcoming any health issue, and this year hasnt exactly been a positive one for many people.


I don't believe that is it. Whenever there is a spike in deaths, the same region experiences a spike in excess deaths. I doubt a substantial number of people who had undiagnosed cancer would die at the same time as a particular region has a spike.

I don't know why some posters are so adamant to reject the notion that there are excess deaths associated with Covid. Every country that has had a spike in deaths has also had a spike in excess deaths.

The data is there with the CDC. Only 20% of these deaths are with Covid. 80% are not. They are due to depression, substance abuse, inability to seek medical care and other issues due to the tyrannical policies.
cone
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per the 2010 census, there were 82 million 25-44 year olds

assume that number has increased since the vanguard millennials are just now hitting 40, but we can use 82 MM for our purposes

per this chart:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/MortFinal2007_Worktable23r.pdf

the death rates per 100k were

25-34 - 105

35-44 - 184

straight average them and round down to ~140 deaths/100k across the cohort

so potentially we had a a total of 114800 deaths in the 25-44 age range in 2019 (or at least in the ballpark)

if the excess deaths are 26.5% above baseline, that means an extra 30422 deaths

someone mentioned that 6000 deaths have been attributed to COVID thus far

so that's where you get the 20% of excess deaths are COVID and the 80% are related to something else (or adjacent to the turmoil of 2020)
cone
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my best two guesses

- healthcare utilization fell off a cliff in March/April. that's going to have knock-on effects for years.

- people are depressed and have been for months. people are out of work and it's going to be tough sledding long into next year.

personally, i know i got really depressed in February over all this and it didn't start to abate until the NYC serology study results in April. i'm generally a pretty happy guy and it was miserable - lost appetite, couldn't shake the gloom, it was horrible. it was really bad for my health.
Capitol Ag
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rojo_ag said:

wtmartinaggie said:

You have to wonder if it's because people can't get into a doctor. Say you have a weird lump or pain that you used to would have gone to the doctor for but now don't because you're afraid of COVID or the practice can't take you...

if it turns out it's cancer and you missed the window, that could contribute to the number... i'm not saying that's it, but i'm sure it is a combination of factors. emotional health is proven to be correlated to overcoming any health issue, and this year hasnt exactly been a positive one for many people.


I don't believe that is it. Whenever there is a spike in deaths, the same region experiences a spike in excess deaths. I doubt a substantial number of people who had undiagnosed cancer would die at the same time as a particular region has a spike.

I don't know why some posters are so adamant to reject the notion that there are excess deaths associated with Covid. Every country that has had a spike in deaths has also had a spike in excess deaths.


Where does it say that these excess deaths were caused by Covid?

Be careful not to do something we all have and can do: use confirmation bias to make stats and numbers prove what you already believe. The fact is that very few people of that age are dying from Covid and it's very likely that more of that age group have died during all of this from suicides, drug overdoses, alcohol related deaths etc. as those would pose a much great threat to this age group than Covid does.

I understand your position that you don't want the opposite to happen as both side use studies to "prove" that they are right. But this study has a lot of holes it needs to explain.
dermdoc
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rojo_ag said:

wtmartinaggie said:

You have to wonder if it's because people can't get into a doctor. Say you have a weird lump or pain that you used to would have gone to the doctor for but now don't because you're afraid of COVID or the practice can't take you...

if it turns out it's cancer and you missed the window, that could contribute to the number... i'm not saying that's it, but i'm sure it is a combination of factors. emotional health is proven to be correlated to overcoming any health issue, and this year hasnt exactly been a positive one for many people.


I don't believe that is it. Whenever there is a spike in deaths, the same region experiences a spike in excess deaths. I doubt a substantial number of people who had undiagnosed cancer would die at the same time as a particular region has a spike.

I don't know why some posters are so adamant to reject the notion that there are excess deaths associated with Covid. Every country that has had a spike in deaths has also had a spike in excess deaths.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
amercer
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Here (as posted above) is the full study:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

There is something a little weird about the data though. For the 25-44 yrs group, deaths were running at 10% above normal BEFORE the pandemic hit. Other age groups were at or near the baseline. So there may be some trend in that group that was then exacerbated by #2020
AgsMyDude
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cone said:



personally, i know i got really depressed in February over all this and it didn't start to abate until the NYC serology study results in April. i'm generally a pretty happy guy and it was miserable - lost appetite, couldn't shake the gloom, it was horrible. it was really bad for my health.


Man I'm right there with you. I lost 20lbs from Jan to April without trying, just the added stress of it all but have stabilized since then. Down to my lowest weight in almost 20 years though.
rojo_ag
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I'm not arguing one side or the other. I want truth and transparency. I have read several articles that estimate that 200K+ have died above the 5 year average.

If the majority of deaths are unrelated to Covid, why is this not being shouted from the rooftops? And don't say the evil MSM is keeping this quiet.
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