Cases, Positivity Rate, and Hospitalizations are all TRENDING UPWARDS in Texas (increased deaths will follow 2 to 3 weeks later)...

Please DON'T WAIT for things to get worse before acting.

For MANY reasons we really need people to take this seriously, wear a mask properly and social distance to help save lives in our Texas communities.

Most importantly to...
Protect Your Families Neighbors And Community
Protect Our Economy By Mask And Distancing
Protect The Opportunity For Schools To Provide In Person Learning

Also important but admittedly to a lessor degree...
Protect Our High School Sports
Protect Our College Football Season
Protect The Opportunituy For Other Extracurricular Activities

Those things shouldn't have anything to do with high schools or college sports

GAC06 said:

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Those things shouldn't have anything to do with high schools or college sports

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High school athletes go home to parents and grand parents that can be high risk and sit in class rooms with teachers some of whom are at risk.

If we don't distance or mask and case numbers get too high they will cancel games/seasons and suspend in person Learning.

I don't want that to happen, but if we allow things to become a repeat of July then that will happen.

The time to make sure we are doing the LITTLE THINGS to try and prevent that is NOW... not in 3 or 4 weeks!

While cases are increasing it looks like the deaths are still trending down. Seems that the younger population is getting it which is the only way we will get herd immunity. Hospitals have plenty of capacity so this is a good trend leading to herd immunity with minimal deaths

AgE Doc said:

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GAC06 said:

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Those things shouldn't have anything to do with high schools or college sports

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High school athletes go home to parents and grand parents that can be high risk and sit in class rooms with teachers some of whom are at risk.

If we don't distance or mask and case numbers get too high they will cancel games/seasons and suspend in person Learning.

I don't want that to happen, but if we allow things to become a repeat of July then that will happen.

The time to make sure we are doing the LITTLE THINGS to try and prevent that is NOW... not in 3 or 4 weeks!

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Then isolate the infirm. We've been through this. There are countless examples from all over the world. Restricting young people is counter productive.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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AgE Doc said:

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#FAAFO

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My wife and I have had COVID and are in our 40s. I've had colds that were worse and the flu last year was way worse.

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I am glad you and your wife recovered without significant morbidity. That is not the case for everyone. Just ask the almost 4,300 Texans in the hospital today... ~ 1200 in the ICU.

Stay safe Ags!

I'd say do whatever you're going to do. The virus is here to stay so live your normal life. Get the virus. Survive. Get the antibodies.

Texas is a big state, so it would seem to be an error to view it in a homogeneous context.

Which areas are seeing the largest increases in hospitalization?

I don't trust any of the numbers. Hospitalizations are people in the hospital WITH covid, not necessarily BECAUSE of Covid. Same for deaths. The whole thing is just smoke filled coffee house crap.

And serious illness and deaths are still trending down. Thank God.

Prexys Moon said:

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I don't trust any of the numbers. Hospitalizations are people in the hospital WITH covid, not necessarily BECAUSE of Covid. Same for deaths. The whole thing is just smoke filled coffee house crap.

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You know this for a fact? Or are you speculating?

I so want to respond to this thread. OP a lamb in a tiger cage. It's been so politicized, I can't anymore.

Those that noted above that deaths haven't increased yet are correct. Reporting of deaths typically lags reporting of cases by 2-3 weeks. If that holds true you would start to see an increase in average daily deaths in 1-2 weeks. That increase will probably only be +15 to 20 from current numbers as long as cases don't rise more than they currently have.

Thanks OP. I am a high school biology teacher and have been wondering if we would begin to see any significant increases after bringing the students back. Obviously we were gong to see increases simply because we brought the kids back together. The question will be if we see any flattening in the number of hospitalizations and deaths in relation to the infection rate compared to what we saw before. I have been having great conversations with my daughter (former A&M undergrad who continued to A&M med school and now in 4th year) about what she is hearing and seeing. She told me we are getting better at treating it and so we are hopeful we will flatten the hospitalization/death curve in relation to the infection rate as a result. All of that being said, it never ceases to amaze me that people won't do a simple act of kindness by wearing a mask so we can slow (not stop) the spread in an attempt to buy a little more time to develop our treatment and prevention capacity. Yes this thing has been politicized and weaponize by both parties which is very sad. But the science supports mask wearing to slow the spread by stopping the water droplets that carry the virus. Your "call to arms" was not out of place and very timely. Thank you for the data you provided. Ignore the no mask bullies that I have yet to see make a scientifically based argument against wearing masks to SLOW the spread.

Thank you for sharing your perspective. This board used to have quite a few doctors and scientists participating. For some reason, most of them aren't very active anymore.

cc_ag92 said:

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Thank you for sharing your perspective. This board used to have quite a few doctors and scientists participating. For some reason, most of them aren't very active anymore.

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They are still around, but they aren't peddling what you want to hear.

cc_ag92 said:

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Thank you for sharing your perspective. This board used to have quite a few doctors and scientists participating. For some reason, most of them aren't very active anymore.

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You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink...

Winter is coming.

Need to stay open to the capacity of our hospitalization capacity. We are 2 months behind Sweden because our leaders are idiots.

cc_ag92 said:

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Thank you for sharing your perspective. This board used to have quite a few doctors and scientists participating. For some reason, most of them aren't very active anymore.

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Can't speak for all of them, but I know I'm tired. I can appreciate data that opposes my view, but when people just say whatever they want and disbelieve data because it's all a conspiracy, makes it virtually pointless to participate.

Cases and positivity rate are irrelevant. Not much credibility here.

Agreed. Even the fear mongers own charts show the death rate dropping off a cliff

Is this some kind of weird copy pasta from Reddit with the hashtags removed?

GAC06 said:

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AgE Doc said:

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GAC06 said:

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Those things shouldn't have anything to do with high schools or college sports

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High school athletes go home to parents and grand parents that can be high risk and sit in class rooms with teachers some of whom are at risk.

If we don't distance or mask and case numbers get too high they will cancel games/seasons and suspend in person Learning.

I don't want that to happen, but if we allow things to become a repeat of July then that will happen.

The time to make sure we are doing the LITTLE THINGS to try and prevent that is NOW... not in 3 or 4 weeks!

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Then isolate the infirm. We've been through this. There are countless examples from all over the world. Restricting young people is counter productive.

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That would be great but it isn't happening, at least not in school settings. Teachers who really shouldn't be teaching in person because of high risk pre-existing conditions are being denied the option to teach from home.

AgE Doc said:

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Cases, Positivity Rate, and Hospitalizations are all TRENDING UPWARDS in Texas (increased deaths will follow 2 to 3 weeks later)...

Please DON'T WAIT for things to get worse before acting.

For MANY reasons we really need people to take this seriously, wear a mask properly and social distance to help save lives in our Texas communities.

Most importantly to...
Protect Your Families Neighbors And Community
Protect Our Economy By Mask And Distancing
Protect The Opportunity For Schools To Provide In Person Learning

Also important but admittedly to a lessor degree...
Protect Our High School Sports
Protect Our College Football Season
Protect The Opportunituy For Other Extracurricular Activities

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As a physician, do you think it is a good thing or bad thing for there to be more cases and fewer deaths?

dermdoc said:

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AgE Doc said:

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Cases, Positivity Rate, and Hospitalizations are all TRENDING UPWARDS in Texas (increased deaths will follow 2 to 3 weeks later)...

Please DON'T WAIT for things to get worse before acting.

For MANY reasons we really need people to take this seriously, wear a mask properly and social distance to help save lives in our Texas communities.

Most importantly to...
Protect Your Families Neighbors And Community
Protect Our Economy By Mask And Distancing
Protect The Opportunity For Schools To Provide In Person Learning

Also important but admittedly to a lessor degree...
Protect Our High School Sports
Protect Our College Football Season
Protect The Opportunituy For Other Extracurricular Activities

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As a physician, do you think it is a good thing or bad thing for there to be more cases and fewer deaths?

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It is a good thing to have fewer deaths... It is also good thing to read the disclaimer below that fatalities curve and realize that curve is not complete and that it can take 6 to 10 weeks for death certificate data to be filled into that curve. For Texas whose main wave came at a time with significant testing capabilities, ultimately that fatality curve will relatively mirror the cases curve just delayed by a couple of weeks. When the state changed how they represented the fatalities curve in July I was in favor of it because it helped prevent panic that might have cause another strict stay at home/shelter in place order. But that should NOT be the curve you look at for "Early Warning" of pandemic resurgence. It is very delayed. The Positivity Rate, Case Number and Hospitalization increases are better "Warning Sign" or "Call to Action" type indicators.

Marcus Aurelius said:

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I so want to respond to this thread. OP a lamb in a tiger cage. It's been so politicized, I can't anymore.

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Politicized or are people just finally seeing through a lot of the nonsense as well? And is it political or has it drifting beyond that to become personal at this point?

Look, as far as the message from the OP, I feel his intentions are great and I personally am doing most of those things. The issue is that we tend to overreact when it comes to policy as well. Specifically in education where having contact is considered a bigger reason to justify quarantine vs actual testing. That's insanity when one considers how it affects daily schooling and education. Same with many of the restrictions on the less vulnerable population. My argument isn't political. It based off watching things with boots on the ground. Just like in a war, many times its the grunt who sees that a policy set forth by his superiors, with great intentions, is having grave consequences on the battlefront and isn't working. Many of these policies aren't doing anything to actually stop a spread but instead causing great gridlock in areas of society that we cannot afford to have reduced capacity in.


Consider this, when the reasoning given is 4,300 hospitalized, one must consider that the number given is relatively low when put in context to the entire population of the state. Yes, it would be very unfortunate, truly, to be one of those people or have one of those people be your loved one. And yes, as the OP says, stay vigilant in your own mitigation to ensure that those numbers stay that low. But we also should understand that this is a very low number and be grateful.

dermdoc said:

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AgE Doc said:

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Cases, Positivity Rate, and Hospitalizations are all TRENDING UPWARDS in Texas (increased deaths will follow 2 to 3 weeks later)...

Please DON'T WAIT for things to get worse before acting.

For MANY reasons we really need people to take this seriously, wear a mask properly and social distance to help save lives in our Texas communities.

Most importantly to...
Protect Your Families Neighbors And Community
Protect Our Economy By Mask And Distancing
Protect The Opportunity For Schools To Provide In Person Learning

Also important but admittedly to a lessor degree...
Protect Our High School Sports
Protect Our College Football Season
Protect The Opportunituy For Other Extracurricular Activities

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As a physician, do you think it is a good thing or bad thing for there to be more cases and fewer deaths?

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It seems that people are either willingly ignoring just 3 months ago or seem to not remember we went through this "but deaths are dropping" nonsense already while cases sharply rose, and then the deaths inevitably followed. Reports of death and the time it takes from diagnosis to death or ICU admission typically takes weeks.

I agree with Keegan, however, that there needs to be a better breakdown of the numbers, as Texas is so huge. Anecdotally, here in San Antonio I still haven't seen a significant increase in cases, Although I have had to admit two patients in the last week, which is the total number I've seen in the last month.

Numbers in Houston are up but not like they did with the last big surge. It has been much flatter compared to June's increases. At our facilities we have continued to see a ICU levels stay lower than first surge. Our increases have primarily been in Med Surg and with better treatment options we are seeing short LOS.

I think people need to understand that the virus is not going to just disappear but that doesn't mean to not live your life. Take the necessary precautions and you will be fine.