Covidplaningtools.com thinks Texas is getting over the hump

2,172 Views | 10 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by BadMoonRisin
Texaggie7nine
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https://covidplanningtools.com/texas-over-the-hump/


Quote:

  • Texas residents are generally modulating their behavior in proportion to risk.
  • Over 24% of Texas residents have likely been infected by late July.
  • Infection rates are higher among individuals in the 20-40 age range, now approaching 35% .
  • Total deaths are likely to be in the range of 500/million (compare to NYC ~2,800/million, Sweden ~750/million)
  • Death rates continue to be heavily tilted to elderly populations.
  • Returning children to school and extracurricular activities do not cause a significant increase in deaths or infections.
  • Risk proportional mobility lowers herd immunity; reached when 40-50% of 20-40 year olds are infected.
  • Vulnerable and elderly populations are at risk and should continue to take precautions and avoid high risk situations.
  • The summer surge will eventually die out, we will not see a returning infection peak if elderly and vulnerable are protected.
  • Improvements in therapeutic methods have significantly reduced the mortality rate, we assume a 40% reduction since March.

7nine
beerad12man
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AG
Texaggie7nine said:

https://covidplanningtools.com/texas-over-the-hump/


Quote:

  • Texas residents are generally modulating their behavior in proportion to risk.
  • Over 24% of Texas residents have likely been infected by late July.
  • Infection rates are higher among individuals in the 20-40 age range, now approaching 35% .
  • Total deaths are likely to be in the range of 500/million (compare to NYC ~2,800/million, Sweden ~750/million)
  • Death rates continue to be heavily tilted to elderly populations.
  • Returning children to school and extracurricular activities do not cause a significant increase in deaths or infections.
  • Risk proportional mobility lowers herd immunity; reached when 40-50% of 20-40 year olds are infected.
  • Vulnerable and elderly populations are at risk and should continue to take precautions and avoid high risk situations.
  • The summer surge will eventually die out, we will not see a returning infection peak if elderly and vulnerable are protected.
  • Improvements in therapeutic methods have significantly reduced the mortality rate, we assume a 40% reduction since March.


Hope it ends up being correct. Now let's just get this young crowd to 50% and we will be in even better shape for the elderly to feel safer again.

Texas really has done well overall when you break down all the numbers.

Which is pretty darn good when you consider that I believe Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and McAllen(#1) are some of the most obese places in the United States. That presented another challenge. Thanks to all the docs out there that seem to have a much better handle on this thing now than places like NYC and NJ did 4/5 months ago. Couldn't have done it without them.

But overall, we have let the young and healthy get us over this hump while protecting the elderly pretty well it seem.

https://wallethub.com/edu/fattest-cities-in-america/10532/
tylercsbn9
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AG
Don't expect this to show up on Reddit or lena's Twitter feed
AggieBiker
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beerad12man said:

Texaggie7nine said:

https://covidplanningtools.com/texas-over-the-hump/


Quote:

  • Texas residents are generally modulating their behavior in proportion to risk.
  • Over 24% of Texas residents have likely been infected by late July.
  • Infection rates are higher among individuals in the 20-40 age range, now approaching 35% .
  • Total deaths are likely to be in the range of 500/million (compare to NYC ~2,800/million, Sweden ~750/million)
  • Death rates continue to be heavily tilted to elderly populations.
  • Returning children to school and extracurricular activities do not cause a significant increase in deaths or infections.
  • Risk proportional mobility lowers herd immunity; reached when 40-50% of 20-40 year olds are infected.
  • Vulnerable and elderly populations are at risk and should continue to take precautions and avoid high risk situations.
  • The summer surge will eventually die out, we will not see a returning infection peak if elderly and vulnerable are protected.
  • Improvements in therapeutic methods have significantly reduced the mortality rate, we assume a 40% reduction since March.


Hope it ends up being correct. Now let's just get this young crowd to 50% and we will be in even better shape for the elderly to feel safer again.

Texas really has done well overall when you break down all the numbers.

Which is pretty darn good when you consider that I believe Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and McAllen(#1) are some of the most obese places in the United States. That presented another challenge. Thanks to all the docs out there that seem to have a much better handle on this thing now than places like NYC and NJ did 4/5 months ago. Couldn't have done it without them.

But overall, we have let the young and healthy get us over this hump while protecting the elderly pretty well it seem.

https://wallethub.com/edu/fattest-cities-in-america/10532/
Hey now, I resemble that remark so be careful.

Of course I say that as someone in my late, late 50s while eating my salad with grilled chicken for lunch and having logged 368 miles of running over the last 84 days. The pandemic and working from home has been great for my health and has sponsored this humble brag. Thank you for the encouragement.
beerad12man
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AG
I think obesity went up during quarantine so feel proud of yourself!
fightingfarmer09
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AggieBiker said:

beerad12man said:

Texaggie7nine said:

https://covidplanningtools.com/texas-over-the-hump/


Quote:

  • Texas residents are generally modulating their behavior in proportion to risk.
  • Over 24% of Texas residents have likely been infected by late July.
  • Infection rates are higher among individuals in the 20-40 age range, now approaching 35% .
  • Total deaths are likely to be in the range of 500/million (compare to NYC ~2,800/million, Sweden ~750/million)
  • Death rates continue to be heavily tilted to elderly populations.
  • Returning children to school and extracurricular activities do not cause a significant increase in deaths or infections.
  • Risk proportional mobility lowers herd immunity; reached when 40-50% of 20-40 year olds are infected.
  • Vulnerable and elderly populations are at risk and should continue to take precautions and avoid high risk situations.
  • The summer surge will eventually die out, we will not see a returning infection peak if elderly and vulnerable are protected.
  • Improvements in therapeutic methods have significantly reduced the mortality rate, we assume a 40% reduction since March.


Hope it ends up being correct. Now let's just get this young crowd to 50% and we will be in even better shape for the elderly to feel safer again.

Texas really has done well overall when you break down all the numbers.

Which is pretty darn good when you consider that I believe Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and McAllen(#1) are some of the most obese places in the United States. That presented another challenge. Thanks to all the docs out there that seem to have a much better handle on this thing now than places like NYC and NJ did 4/5 months ago. Couldn't have done it without them.

But overall, we have let the young and healthy get us over this hump while protecting the elderly pretty well it seem.

https://wallethub.com/edu/fattest-cities-in-america/10532/
Hey now, I resemble that remark so be careful.

Of course I say that as someone in my late, late 50s while eating my salad with grilled chicken for lunch and having logged 368 miles of running over the last 84 days. The pandemic and working from home has been great for my health and has sponsored this humble brag. Thank you for the encouragement.


Should be interesting because the vaccine experts were reporting yesterday obesity will likely limit the efficacy of a vaccine dramatically.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/coronavirus-vaccine-likely-wont-work-in-obese-patients-scientists-say
AggieBiker
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Thank you for the kind words. I did go up before I got motivated and hopefully this lasts for me for a longer time. As long as I have the time available, I am pretty good at keeping it going. Maybe working from home will become a more permanent thing as a result of this and when I retire I will just keep doing what is already established.

And I know there are plenty of people on these boards that have done a lot more than I have. I admire everyone who does all they can to take care of themselves to be there for their families and to make our country healthier. It's a real battle with all temptations and blessings we have in our country.
AggieBiker
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CNN via Daily Beast. Consider the sources.

Article title from Daily Beast, "Coronavirus Vaccine Likely Won't Work in Obese Patients, Scientists Say".
Article title on CNN health, "US obesity epidemic could undermine effectiveness of a Covid-19 vaccine".
Original article title from Kaiser Health News, "America's Obesity Epidemic Threatens Effectiveness of Any COVID Vaccine".

First line from Daily Beast and CNN article, "A coronavirus vaccine will likely be less effective in people who are obese, scientists say." That statement can mean something grossly different from the Daily Beast title but let's be sure to scare all the obese people to think they have no hope.

Then compare that opening CNN line to the relevant comparison later in the CNN article and in the Kaiser article, "In the case of influenza, obesity has emerged as a factor making it more difficult to vaccinate adults against infection. The question is whether that will hold true for COVID-19." It doesn't say it's impossible to vaccinate obese adults and a long ways from the title saying it Likely Won't Work.

And the "scientists" both CNN and Kaiser articles quote is one nutrition associate professor from UNC that predicts all vaccines (which he is not a part of developing because he's not part of any vaccine development nor would I expect a nutrition professor to be) won't work. Really good source for an article title to say a vaccine "Likely Won't Work".

Scare, alarm and fear; that's their goal.

But nonetheless, not being obese has more and greater rewards than just increased vaccine effectiveness and I also bet the flu shot has helped many obese people not contract the flu year in and year out.
GAC06
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Watch left wing media outlets suddenly become anti-vaxxers
VKint
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Very impressive, I wish more people had done so. Those articles about vaccine and obesity are ridiculous. No one knows about a vaccine that does not exist at this time and will be unique in its function. . May turn out to be true, maybe not. NO ONE KNOWS.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Keegan99
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Posted this on the Daily Charts thread as well...


You know how we know Texas is over the hump? Because CLI and ILI visits to ERs peaked over a month ago. This data is collected daily, so it is very close to real-time.


(via Texas2036.org)

And when did fatalities peak?

Roughly two weeks later!




If you want to know how things are presently, look at CLI and ILI survey data, not "case counts". The testing metrics are garbage.

And how do things currently look? We're back where we were at the end of May, if not a bit better.
BadMoonRisin
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AggieBiker said:

CNN via Daily Beast. Consider the sources.

Article title from Daily Beast, "Coronavirus Vaccine Likely Won't Work in Obese Patients, Scientists Say".
Article title on CNN health, "US obesity epidemic could undermine effectiveness of a Covid-19 vaccine".
Original article title from Kaiser Health News, "America's Obesity Epidemic Threatens Effectiveness of Any COVID Vaccine".

First line from Daily Beast and CNN article, "A coronavirus vaccine will likely be less effective in people who are obese, scientists say." That statement can mean something grossly different from the Daily Beast title but let's be sure to scare all the obese people to think they have no hope.

Then compare that opening CNN line to the relevant comparison later in the CNN article and in the Kaiser article, "In the case of influenza, obesity has emerged as a factor making it more difficult to vaccinate adults against infection. The question is whether that will hold true for COVID-19." It doesn't say it's impossible to vaccinate obese adults and a long ways from the title saying it Likely Won't Work.

And the "scientists" both CNN and Kaiser articles quote is one nutrition associate professor from UNC that predicts all vaccines (which he is not a part of developing because he's not part of any vaccine development nor would I expect a nutrition professor to be) won't work. Really good source for an article title to say a vaccine "Likely Won't Work".

Scare, alarm and fear; that's their goal.

But nonetheless, not being obese has more and greater rewards than just increased vaccine effectiveness and I also bet the flu shot has helped many obese people not contract the flu year in and year out.
nm. didnt look at the forum.
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