https://covidplanningtools.com/texas-over-the-hump/
Quote:
- Texas residents are generally modulating their behavior in proportion to risk.
- Over 24% of Texas residents have likely been infected by late July.
- Infection rates are higher among individuals in the 20-40 age range, now approaching 35% .
- Total deaths are likely to be in the range of 500/million (compare to NYC ~2,800/million, Sweden ~750/million)
- Death rates continue to be heavily tilted to elderly populations.
- Returning children to school and extracurricular activities do not cause a significant increase in deaths or infections.
- Risk proportional mobility lowers herd immunity; reached when 40-50% of 20-40 year olds are infected.
- Vulnerable and elderly populations are at risk and should continue to take precautions and avoid high risk situations.
- The summer surge will eventually die out, we will not see a returning infection peak if elderly and vulnerable are protected.
- Improvements in therapeutic methods have significantly reduced the mortality rate, we assume a 40% reduction since March.
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