Old RV Ag said:

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beerad12man said:

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It won't make a comeback. This thing is cycling through and we will be damn near done by November/December

People still have immunity to this from coronavirus they experienced years ago, so not likely to reinfect someone that already has had it. there haven't been any cases confirmed of this happening. At least not multiple hospitalizations. So yeah, with the Us inching closer to 20% already, wouldn't shock me if we were at 30-40% by November. Even without measures being taken By state or government, we should be okay just because of how many will still be taking their own

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Please provide your facebook reference for this definitive take on it.

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Believe what you want. I didn't mean to make my comment come across as definitive. I was just simply answering the OPs question using all the data I can see that's right in front of me to formulate my best guess opinion. Here's a hint. No one in the world can say with 100% certainty either way. This is still a little new, and data can change or a major variable can change. We can only take data we currently see and interpret it the best we can. I'd say I'm about 90% sure I'll end up being right, in that my premise is once a place gets anywhere from 15-25% of their population infected, even teh smallest amount of social distancing and/or masks will show a clear downward trend and prevent from overwhelming that areas hospitals. Again, unless some data is out there I don't know about, or a big variable changes with regards to this thing.

Here's why I start as I follow this nearly daily: https://covid19-projections.com/us-tx. That shows 30% around November 1st for Texas. 14% for the United States. I'm a little more worried about the areas under the 20-25% percent mark come winter, but here in Texas I just don't' see much reason for concern. If anything, some areas need to speed up a little bit before flu season to not coincide with it, but that's a controversial opinion many others won't share.

As of now, I have yet to find anywhere in the world that has hit 20-25% of the population infected and yet still seeing resurgences or major spikes? If you can find them, please point them out. I'd like to discuss and see what might be causing that versus everywhere else. Maybe I might change my mind a bit, but I doubt there's data out there that would cause me to do so.

And like cone and others have continue to state, moderate social distancing and mask wearing will continue for the next few months at the very least among plenty of people. I believe this would be the case even with the mandates lifted. No, you won't see 100% mask compliance, but right now Sweden is at 20%. You'll get at least that. That along with 20-30% of the population already having it, and of course the natural 35-40% that seem to be asymptomatic and/or very mild cases, seems to be all that is needed to ensure we aren't overwhelming our healthcare system here.

Believe what you will. This is my take on it. Many others share it, too. Many disagree with it. That's fine. Seems pretty clear overall to me, though.

Also some great data here: https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#statesherd

AgsMyDude said:

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I'm not so sure without some restrictions in place. If Abbott came out Monday opening bars and removing mask mandate that "institutionalization" would be gone by September. We're very quick to forget.

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Maybe. No way to really tell. But I don't think that you need 100% compliance at that point. With 30-40% asymptomatic and/or mild cases, then another 20-30% here in Texas already infected by November 1st, you really don't need that IMHO. You may not need any, but in all likelihood, at least 20-25% of the population will still wear masks. Maybe even 50-60%. And many will still continue to social distance, particularly the most vulnerable crowd. Simply leaving the young and healthy still getting the virus, but in much lower doses than now with 20/30% of them already having had it.

IMHO, that's more than enough to keep this thing down from this point forward. I know others will disagree, but I'd like to see the mask mandate removed in the next few weeks as we are trending down and then see where it goes. I think we'd be just fine. But we really won't know until we try no masks and 20-30% of the population infected. As opposed to before, when we tried no masks, and only 3-5% infected.

cone said:

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it's like people on twitter blaming the AC for the summer spike in Texas

bro, we're on AC for 9 months out of the year

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Honestly, there may be something to this. Out of about 120 people our plant has only had 2 confirmed cases, and 2 basically confirmed cases (no test available). A facility 16 miles east of us, same demographic and make up but about double the size, has had 16 confirmed cases and many more suspected but unverified ones.

The major difference is that we opted to go no AC since the deal started in March at the orders of the physician that is overseeing our operational plan. We have opened all windows, running a bunch of fans, all doors open, loading bays, with free flowing air plant wide. The other facility stayed with AC.

I can't prove anything, but that difference is awfully striking.

no doubt that more ventilation is better

but to say we're uniquely exposed to the virus in July as opposed to April because of AC

AC has been blowing and going here since late Feb

cone said:

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no doubt that more ventilation is better

but to say we're uniquely exposed to the virus in July as opposed to April because of AC

AC has been blowing and going here since late Feb

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That is a real good point. I hadn't though of it that way.

From what I have lived, I do not think the virus, in terms of numbers, was present in Texas near as much in March and April, and even May, as it was in June and July.

RGV AG said:

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cone said:

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no doubt that more ventilation is better

but to say we're uniquely exposed to the virus in July as opposed to April because of AC

AC has been blowing and going here since late Feb

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That is a real good point. I hadn't though of it that way.

From what I have lived, I do not think the virus, in terms of numbers, was present in Texas near as much in March and April, and even May, as it was in June and July.

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That makes logical sense just due to exposure, most people were fairly locked down from mid/late March into late May.

bay fan said:

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tysker said:

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Quote:

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Absolutely - look at the CDC chart and tell me how a school nurse is going to be able to determine if a child has COVID or not come later in the fall. The symptoms overlap so much, and the presentation in children so similar, to any number of normal child illnesses.

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I suspect there will be a lot of 'Dont Ask, Dont Tell' going on with parents, teachers and nurses.

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I sure hope not. In fact I doubt that very much. I do not think people will hide Illness. What could possibly be in it for a teacher or nurse to do that?

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If a child is sent home for a dry cough and asked to not come back until at least a covid test is administered but shows up the next day without symptoms and no proof of a test, should that child be allowed into the classroom? What authority does a teacher of nurse have to send a child out of the school for a cough or sneeze? What do you do with students suspected of exposure to covid, that show no symptoms which as you know is typically the case with covid in kids.

Maybe Dont Ask Dont Tell is certainly an imperfect situation but it may be better than denying education to those who already dont have the best medical care and home life. Its easy to say it wont happen and that it shouldn't happen from behind a computer screen but teachers and nurses, make hard decisions every day caring for their students. For some, school, even with the risk of covid, is safer than home.

bay fan said:

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You forget, the teacher or nurse don't want to get it themselves and feel responsible for entire class/school. Most people have decency and won't aid and abet the spread.

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Easy to say that from your seat. Some of these kids have worse lives at home than school. Sometimes a students only steady meals come during the school day. Sending home a student for days or weeks due to an unlikely but possible case, back to a deteriorating homelife is going to be a tough call on the ground for some to make. Responsibility isnt black and white. Decency can cut both ways.