There is no telling when the samples were collected for those Houston area test results. The daily reports are a jumble of data from as far back as two weeks ago.

Agree. Same pattern as most places. We are coming down the back side of the curve.

nonameag99 said:

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2 moar weaks

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Yes, thank goodness for the alerting by TMC itself, the media, etc when things started to trend up at a concerning pace. To think this "2 weeks" alarm-ism isn't a big contributor to the turn in these statistics, for the better, seems short sighted at best.

It's almost like being proactive leads to better outcomes.

But hey, it's an easy Texags blue star post.

I think we've got a trend, fellas. looking good in the Houston area. Remarkable decrease in hospitalizations. July 6- 446 new hospitalizations to August 3- 161 new hospitalizations. And those aren't outliers. They fit the trend line.

Great news. Thanks for posting

[url=https://twitter.com/Joe26972158/status/1290716717145096192][/url]

Re: New Cases, looks like Harris County is clearing backlogs.

One of the many reasons why "new cases" is such a poor metric to make decisions based on...yet our media, sports, and government all use it either out of an agenda or ignorance. Frustrating as hell.

There is no room for nuance and actual ballsy leadership. With few exceptions.

PURELY ANECDOTAL, but I will say that the drive-thru testing location by my house in Houston has noticeably shorter lines. Initially, it was usually only 2-3 cars in line. Then, abruptly it went up to 50+ car lines wrapping around the block and parking lot. Now, it seems to be 2-3 cars again.

Same where I'm located.

Massive lines most of July until about 2 weeks ago.

Now I see maybe 2 people a day.

In SA a few weeks ago it was near impossible to get a test, a week+ out for apts.

Right now I can make an appointment with 2 hours at a couple of different Urgent Care spots.

Here in Dallas, they closed one of the testing centers on Monday.

The one by me closed as well. Houston.

Found this Harris County imagery on their site. Case reports by day vs case reports on an epi curve.

Timely reporting of tests is not their strength.

HotardAg07 said:

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PURELY ANECDOTAL, but I will say that the drive-thru testing location by my house in Houston has noticeably shorter lines. Initially, it was usually only 2-3 cars in line. Then, abruptly it went up to 50+ car lines wrapping around the block and parking lot. Now, it seems to be 2-3 cars again.

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Same thing here in southern burbs of Katy as I've been running my kids to SAC camp each morning for weeks and 3-4 weeks ago there were probably 30-50 cars lined up each morning. This week so far there were: 2, 3 and 3 for the last 3 days around 7am waiting in line.

Keegan99 said:

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Found this Harris County imagery on their site. Case reports by day vs case reports on an epi curve.

Timely reporting of tests is not their strength.

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I ran the numbers. Average 22 days lag between death and reported in harris county.

Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:

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AgsMyDude said:

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In SA a few weeks ago it was near impossible to get a test, a week+ out for apts.

Right now I can make an appointment with 2 hours at a couple of different Urgent Care spots.

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I haven't seen a COVID+ patient in my last 3 ER shifts here in SA. Compare that with 1 month ago when I was seeing 50-75% COVID patients during my shifts. Number of COVID+ tests per day has dramatically decreased. All very reassuring signs. Our ICUs are still filled with COVID patients, nevertheless, just not as bad as it was a few weeks ago. The number of deaths will likely continue to increase significantly for the next month or so, but most of that will be due to delays in reporting and patients that have been languishing for weeks on ventilators that finally succumb to the disease.

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God bless you man. Hopefully you can get a breather.

Keegan99 said:

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Found this Harris County imagery on their site. Case reports by day vs case reports on an epi curve.

Timely reporting of tests is not their strength.

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And if our mayor and county judge have anything to say about it, results will continue to be presented in the worst possible light!

RandyAg98 said:

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One of the many reasons why "new cases" is such a poor metric to make decisions based on...yet our media, sports, and government all use it either out of an agenda or ignorance. Frustrating as hell.

There is no room for nuance and actual ballsy leadership. With few exceptions.

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Daily New cases is an excellent metric to make decisions on... Assuming you can get results processed in a timely manner.

Unfortunately, for some reason, we lack the capability to do that in the US.

dragmagpuff said:

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RandyAg98 said:

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One of the many reasons why "new cases" is such a poor metric to make decisions based on...yet our media, sports, and government all use it either out of an agenda or ignorance. Frustrating as hell.

There is no room for nuance and actual ballsy leadership. With few exceptions.

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Daily New cases is an excellent metric to make decisions on... Assuming you can get results processed in a timely manner.

Unfortunately, for some reason, we lack the capability to do that in the US.

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My neighbors were exposed the weekend of the 17th and found out on the 28th (last Tuesday). They got tested first thing in the morning on Wednesday, and finally got their results yesterday. There has to be a more efficient way!

I'm curious, why did they get tested? Were they having systems and went to the doctor. Or did they just get tested bc being around someone?

If it's the latter, I don't understand that thinking. Was it work related requirement?

Positive or negative?

You are right...ACCURATE daily news case reports would be very useful IF testing rates remained constant, reporting was consistent, and the definition of a "case" was consistent. None of those things are true. Not just the US. A "case" in Sweden is different than a "case" in Egypt, etc.

I think the US also has the unique issue of there being "too many cooks in the kitchen". We have county government, city government, state government, private hospitals, health organizations, and federal government all using different metrics, different definitions, different timelines, different resources, and different agendas in their management. Leads to a Charlie Foxtrot in data interpretation for decision-making purposes.

Jebber said:

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I'm curious, why did they get tested? Were they having systems and went to the doctor. Or did they just get tested bc being around someone?

If it's the latter, I don't understand that thinking. Was it work related requirement?

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You don't understand wanting to find out if you are positive after being exposed so you don't spread to others?

Jebber said:

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I'm curious, why did they get tested? Were they having systems and went to the doctor. Or did they just get tested bc being around someone?

If it's the latter, I don't understand that thinking. Was it work related requirement?

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No, they're elderly and both have underlying conditions. They contacted their doctor who recommended getting tested.

DadHammer said:

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Positive or negative?

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One of each! Both feel great with no symptoms.

What's an EPI curve? It's a much prettier function.

Epidemiology, it backdates the cases to either day of symptoms or day of test, more accurate chart but missing info during the turnaround period for testing

I understand since they were elderly but if it were me I would not get tested and just insure social distancing.

Accuracy of testing is all over the place. No thanks on a false positive or negative for that matter.

Jebber said:

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I understand since they were elderly but if it were me I would not get tested and just insure social distancing.

Accuracy of testing is all over the place. No thanks on a false positive or negative for that matter.

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False positives are very unlikely. But yes, false negatives are decently common. I just had someone who was in close contact with a confirmed positive, and developed a 103 fever 4 days later, and she tested negative. I know it's still possible that it's another viral illness, but I think the safest course is to treat as a false negative.

The only utility in testing, for most people, in my opinion, is to help contact tracing efforts and provide county/state health officials with epidemiological data.

Jebber said:

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I understand since they were elderly but if it were me I would not get tested and just insure social distancing.

Accuracy of testing is all over the place. No thanks on a false positive or negative for that matter.

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If they had both been negative they wouldn't have continued to quarantine. We're taking care of their groceries and other errands for them, but they're eager to go back to doing it themselves as soon as they can.