Reaching capacity in the upper RGV

40,226 Views | 239 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by PJYoung
PJYoung
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(CNN)Hospitals in at least two Texas counties are at full capacity heading into the Fourth of July holiday weekend, with county judges urging residents to shelter in place.

Judges in Starr and Hidalgo counties sent out emergency alerts Friday, warning residents that local hospitals in the Rio Grande Valley were at capacity.

Judge Eloy Vera said there have been 18 deaths in Starr County due to Covid-19 and two severely ill patients had to be flown out of the area for treatment. One of the patients was taken to San Antonio and the other to Dallas, the judge said in the post on Facebook.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/us/texas-hospitals-coronavirus/index.html


EDIT: Texas Tribune did an in depth piece out of DHR in McAllen

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/02/texas-coronavirus-hospital-rio-grande-valley/

https://www.themonitor.com/2020/07/03/3-die-cameron-county-81-new-covid-19-cases-emerge/


Dr. Alister MacKenzie
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Demographics and social norms are gonna to just make this worse.
Charpie
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So you're down there. What are your thoughts on the rise of cases? I see some blaming Mexico
PJYoung
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Charpie said:

So you're down there. What are your thoughts on the rise of cases? I see some blaming Mexico


I haven't heard any doctors or hospitals blaming Mexico.

Demographics is my guess. We are an extremely obese, poor area with multi generational housing. This virus thrives in those conditions.
Fitch
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https://www.dallasnews.com/news/mexico/2020/07/04/despite-closed-border-americans-travel-freely-to-mexico-increasing-virus-dangers/

Can't do quotes on phone too well, but worth a read through. Curious if this is widespread or more limited than the author implies.
CardiffGiant
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I think demographics plays a big role here. We know that diabetics have a hard time with this disease and what demographic has a disproportionately high percent of people with diabetes?
cityagboy
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RGV - Mission
Charpie
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I'm glad that my mom doesn't live there anymore. My aunts and uncles are empty nesters. My only family that's there are being extremely cautious.
RGV AG
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I have no doubt that the situation in Mexico is impacting this. Some cities along the border are eaten up with the virus.

Mexico had pretty low cases relatively speaking, until they closed things. Typically Mexicans don't move around much during the year, save for holy week and Xmas time.

In the closure the MexGov mandated people be paid, so it became like Spring Break and xmas all in one, people had time and were getting paid.

Lots of parties, get togethers. They drank the area outta beer. 12 packs of natty light were going for between $20 to $25 equivalent, and people were bringing lots of them over to Mex.

When the US stimulus checks hit, se arranco la raza to Mexico too, to party and hang out as the peso went from $18,5 to almost $25 to one USD. So lots of bargains.

People off work in Texas went to Mex as well. Mobility increased for a big population segment. The virus was transmitted around Mex by those with means and the poor are not set up to deal with it well when they get it.

Lots of health workers in Mex are infected.

My opinion of what is going on in the RGV is that a whole bunch of folks are getting tested as compared to March and April. Combine that with a whole bunch of people with health issues that didnt take care of themselves during the shutdown and are now having issues, it is hammering the health care system. Docs and nurses I have talked to are saying Covid is way up, but the hospitalized are predominantly Covid and something else.
amercer
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For reference, what's the normal count at a hospital and an ICU? 50%? 80%?

I assume no one builds a lot of extra capacity since hospitals are expensive buildings to maintain
Keegan99
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Border counties from California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas are all seeing the same pattern.

It's Mexico.




And I don't think this is necessarily a fault of policy. The seasonality of viruses changes dramatically by latitude and climate.
cityagboy
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Border counties are also some of the poorest in the country and this virus is impacting poor communities at a much higher rate as poor families have a harder time socially distancing for a variety of reasons.
AgsMyDude
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Right, doubt they're getting paid to self quarantine at home if someone gets it. They'll probably hide at all costs and try to work through
Keegan99
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cityagboy said:

Border counties are also some of the poorest in the country and this virus is impacting poor communities at a much higher rate as poor families have a harder time socially distancing for a variety of reasons.

There are plenty of poor counties in Appalachia and throughout the South. This is not occurring there.

That also doesn't explain the timing. A purely economic reason would have produced these same trends in March, April, or May.

"case counts" in Hidalgo county are up 600%+ in a matter of weeks.
cityagboy
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Keegan99 said:

cityagboy said:

Border counties are also some of the poorest in the country and this virus is impacting poor communities at a much higher rate as poor families have a harder time socially distancing for a variety of reasons.

There are plenty of poor counties in Appalachia and throughout the South. This is not occurring there.

That also doesn't explain the timing. A purely economic reason would have produced these same trends in March, April, or May.

"case counts" in Hidalgo county are up 600%+ in a matter of weeks.

There are obviously many factors for each area
et98
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Does this mean the convention I'm supposed to attend in McAllen at the end of the month probably won't happen?
Big Al 1992
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So this thing will die out when the weather gets hotter. Thrives in cool climates like South Texas and Southern Arizona.
Charpie
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Big Al 1992 said:

So this thing will die out when the weather gets hotter. Thrives in cool climates like South Texas and Southern Arizona.
Keegan99
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Virus seasonality isn't that simple. It does follow that trend at more northern latitudes. Such as Europe and most of the US.



That subtropical Mexico is experiencing its peak now despite the virus being there for months isn't a surprise.
3rd Generation Ag
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Also, I know I have been away from the border since 97, but when I lived there almost any blue collar or white collar family had a day maid or live in maid who walked across, in my case from Nuevo Laredo. And same thing for gardeners. The border is more like one huge community, or at least was. This may have changed with the Cartels taking over.
RGV AG
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3ga:, it is still very much the same. Save more visas given out in the late 90s and after the 9/11 tragedy.

Borders are one community.

But Mexican visa holders have bee stopped from coming into the US since 3/21. Mexico hasn't stopped the gringo's, but they are about to.

Fitch
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It reads like this is a situation of American's traveling to Mexico as a normal practice to duck local policy inconveniences, more so than northbound traffic. Mobility data would be interesting/informative to see.
PJYoung
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Texas Tribune did an in depth piece out of DHR in McAllen

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/02/texas-coronavirus-hospital-rio-grande-valley/
eidetic78
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The most comprehensive study I've found followed just under 100 ICU's for 3 years across the US. Average occupancy range was almost exactly the two numbers you threw out... ~50% to ~80%
PJYoung
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https://www.themonitor.com/2020/07/04/tent-opens-er-facility-weslaco-adds-20-beds-staff-covid-19-patients/
Keegan99
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panamamyers00
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Hundreds of thousands of US citizens live in border towns on the Mexican side and travel to the US daily to work.
RGV AG
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Yes, and go to school as well as other things. Many Mexicans live on the US side and a good number of US citizens live in the US and work in Mex as well.

At this point neither country is barring it's own citizens entry, and with all the dual citizens that is makes the issues complicated.

I don't know about the rest of the border, but at several of the 24 hour RGV bridges, the municipalities set up curfew enforcement at the height of the deal and that scared a lot of folks.
AgsMyDude
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20 patient tent going up in Weslaco

https://www.themonitor.com/2020/07/04/tent-opens-er-facility-weslaco-adds-20-beds-staff-covid-19-patients/
B-1 83
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Big Al 1992 said:

So this thing will die out when the weather gets hotter. Thrives in cool climates like South Texas and Southern Arizona.
When people are allowed outdoors and don't cram together in the AC, yes. It thrives where people are in each other's faces.
Aust Ag
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Wow, never thought about the "AC" angle, and the breakouts in the South. Lots more people looking to get cooled off inside somewhere. Nobody leaving their windows open around here!
3rd Generation Ag
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And coming up is a record heat wave if they are correct. No outside ventilaton for most people.
Big Al 1992
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Good point.
cone
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the AC angle is BS IMO

people in Texas we're still running central air in March

in most public spaces, they've never stopped

Texas and Florida and Arizona and California just had a lot of virgin timber
Keegan99
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Seasonality. Latitude.

Viruses behave differently below roughly 30 degrees North than above it. We don't know why it is, but it's been documented for the better part of a century.

If policy was the driving factor, or just unexposed population, the San Francisco Bay area would be seeing similar trends to LA.
 
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