Is there any evidence of COVID spread outside in the sunshine....

5,439 Views | 36 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by cbr
B-1 83
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warm temperatures, high humidity, and breezy conditions? You know, like at a beach or playground?
Mikeyshooter
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Nope.
Not a Bot
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Theoretically, humidity will prevent droplets from flying as far and wind will spread them out. UV light will sanitize over time. So it seems likely the risk of spread would be much less at a beach so long as people stay out of each other's business.

That being said, big drunken beach parties like at spring break are probably cesspools of viral spread due to extended close contact.
deadbq03
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Moxley said:

Theoretically, humidity will prevent droplets from flying as far and wind will spread them out. UV light will sanitize over time. So it seems likely the risk of spread would be much less at a beach so long as people stay out of each other's business.

That being said, big drunken beach parties like at spring break are probably cesspools of viral spread due to extended close contact.
Fantastic summary.
Demo_Slug
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I would think back to every cold you ever got and avoid the situations that you got that cold.
B-1 83
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Moxley said:

Theoretically, humidity will prevent droplets from flying as far and wind will spread them out. UV light will sanitize over time. So it seems likely the risk of spread would be much less at a beach so long as people stay out of each other's business.

That being said, big drunken beach parties like at spring break are probably cesspools of viral spread due to extended close contact.
How close do you get to people at the beach for any extended time that would pose any threat of spreading the virus under the conditions specified?
Quincey P. Morris
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Moxley said:

Theoretically, humidity will prevent droplets from flying as far and wind will spread them out. UV light will sanitize over time. So it seems likely the risk of spread would be much less at a beach so long as people stay out of each other's business.

That being said, big drunken beach parties like at spring break are probably cesspools of viral spread due to extended close contact.


Was there ever any evidence that the spring breakers from Florida that spread out all over the country ended up starting any outbreaks or making them noticeably worse?
Pumpkinhead
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COVID numbers in Panama (Central America), tropical climate, been on extremely restrictive lockdown last couple of months. I live in Panama and the virus has seemed to spread fairly easily here despite temperature in high 80's and 80% humidity.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/panama/

COVID numbers in Equador, also tropical climate and has been under quarantine, Guayaquil in particular got hit pretty bad early. Some folks apparently brought it back from Spain in March and then hit the wedding circuits, and then it got into the poorer neighborhoods.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ecuador/

IMO, I think things like Population density, whether use public transportation or not, whether infected people are hanging out close to each other, extent of multiple generations living in same home, etc. are much larger factors than warm weather. I personally haven't seen Panama's tropical climate give any sort of notable immunity protection from having to deal with this. And Panama also has a regular 'flu' season just like the U.S., cases increase during rainy season.
FlyRod
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Yes. A study was just published showing how returning Spring Breakers not only increased transmission, but mortality rates too. I will find it when I can and link it here as an

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3606811
B-1 83
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FlyRod said:

Yes. A study was just published showing how returning Spring Breakers not only increased transmission, but mortality rates too. I will find it when I can and link it here as an

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3606811
You assume it spread on the beach rather than in hotels, nightclubs, and restaurants. The same with the Panama example. The Panama example says nothing. Do people there stay outside all the time? Was it in families? Crowded homes or indoor public places?
GAC06
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That study has nothing to do with the question in the OP
murphyag
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GAC06 said:

That study has nothing to do with the question in the OP


I think FlyRod was responding to what Ranger007 asked about spring breakers.
Pumpkinhead
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B-1 83 said:

FlyRod said:

Yes. A study was just published showing how returning Spring Breakers not only increased transmission, but mortality rates too. I will find it when I can and link it here as an

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3606811
You assume it spread on the beach rather than in hotels, nightclubs, and restaurants. The same with the Panama example. The Panama example says nothing. Do people there stay outside all the time? Was it in families? Crowded homes or indoor public places?


Here is the more detailed data on Panama. In Spanish but fairly easy to follow. We got our first case here on March 8th.

In terms of spread the past couple of months, all beaches and public parks have been closed, and the population has been completely locked down with very restricted movement. Presumably most of this particular spread That occurred was in workplaces, homes, grocery stores, etc.Though a bunch of folks did also blow off the quarantines early on doing 'quarantine parties' until there was a stronger crackdown.

Panama is now starting to gradually reopen up in mid-May.


FlyRod
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Yes was responding to Ranger007's query.

Brazil offers another case here, like Panama. It's bad there, but population density likely the factor, mitigating whatever benefits warm weather/sunshine provide.

As for beaches, we'll know soon enough.
Marcus Aurelius
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The virus is very sensitive to UV light. Kills it readily. Hence why COVID-19 ICU unit rooms have UV lights installed. And sterilization procedure of rooms after COVID-19 patients involves intense UV pulsation lamps. Same for MTB.
McInnis
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So when our mothers told us that fresh air and sunshine were good for us they knew what they were talking about?
B-1 83
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Safe at Home said:

So when our mothers told us that fresh air and sunshine were good for us they knew what they were talking about?
Except in California, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, ......
TAMU1990
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Moxley said:

Theoretically, humidity will prevent droplets from flying as far and wind will spread them out. UV light will sanitize over time. So it seems likely the risk of spread would be much less at a beach so long as people stay out of each other's business.

That being said, big drunken beach parties like at spring break are probably cesspools of viral spread due to extended close contact.
If you believe this then we should see a huge spike in Galveston/Brazoria/Harris counties next week. They had Jeep Weekend last Saturday. All of the Houston news stations covered it.
74Ag1
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B-1 83 said:

warm temperatures, high humidity, and breezy conditions? You know, like at a beach or playground?

UV light kills it pretty quickly
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kxan.com/news/local/study-coronavirus-appears-to-die-quickly-in-direct-sunlight/amp/

Plus gives you some D
eric76
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74Ag1 said:

B-1 83 said:

warm temperatures, high humidity, and breezy conditions? You know, like at a beach or playground?

UV light kills it pretty quickly
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kxan.com/news/local/study-coronavirus-appears-to-die-quickly-in-direct-sunlight/amp/

Plus gives you some D
From the article:
Quote:

"What we have found so far is that sunlight seems to be very detrimental to the virus," Dabisch explained. "And so within minutes, the majority of the virus is inactivated on surfaces and in the air in direct sunlight."
Note the word "minutes"? If you are standing outside and cough in someone's face, it isn't going to take minutes for the viruses to travel through the air and into their face.
Capitol Ag
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Moxley said:

Theoretically, humidity will prevent droplets from flying as far and wind will spread them out. UV light will sanitize over time. So it seems likely the risk of spread would be much less at a beach so long as people stay out of each other's business.

That being said, big drunken beach parties like at spring break are probably cesspools of viral spread due to extended close contact.


Covid-19 isn't the virus I'm most worried about these folks spreading.
74Ag1
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eric76 said:

74Ag1 said:

B-1 83 said:

warm temperatures, high humidity, and breezy conditions? You know, like at a beach or playground?

UV light kills it pretty quickly
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kxan.com/news/local/study-coronavirus-appears-to-die-quickly-in-direct-sunlight/amp/

Plus gives you some D
From the article:
Quote:

"What we have found so far is that sunlight seems to be very detrimental to the virus," Dabisch explained. "And so within minutes, the majority of the virus is inactivated on surfaces and in the air in direct sunlight."
Note the word "minutes"? If you are standing outside and cough in someone's face, it isn't going to take minutes for the viruses to travel through the air and into their face.

It will if you slow cough

The question was about sunlight killing the virus
Not coughing in someone's face and sunlight
sincereag
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Pumpkinhead said:

B-1 83 said:

FlyRod said:

Yes. A study was just published showing how returning Spring Breakers not only increased transmission, but mortality rates too. I will find it when I can and link it here as an

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3606811
You assume it spread on the beach rather than in hotels, nightclubs, and restaurants. The same with the Panama example. The Panama example says nothing. Do people there stay outside all the time? Was it in families? Crowded homes or indoor public places?


Here is the more detailed data on Panama. In Spanish but fairly easy to follow. We got our first case here on March 8th.

In terms of spread the past couple of months, all beaches and public parks have been closed, and the population has been completely locked down with very restricted movement. Presumably most of this particular spread That occurred was in workplaces, homes, grocery stores, etc.Though a bunch of folks did also blow off the quarantines early on doing 'quarantine parties' until there was a stronger crackdown.

Panama is now starting to gradually reopen up in mid-May.


So it appears the spread occurs mainly indoors or outside in cold weather. Outside when it is hot and the UV rays are strong there is little evidencie of spread.



sincereag
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Pumpkinhead said:

B-1 83 said:

FlyRod said:

Yes. A study was just published showing how returning Spring Breakers not only increased transmission, but mortality rates too. I will find it when I can and link it here as an

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3606811
You assume it spread on the beach rather than in hotels, nightclubs, and restaurants. The same with the Panama example. The Panama example says nothing. Do people there stay outside all the time? Was it in families? Crowded homes or indoor public places?


Here is the more detailed data on Panama. In Spanish but fairly easy to follow. We got our first case here on March 8th.

In terms of spread the past couple of months, all beaches and public parks have been closed, and the population has been completely locked down with very restricted movement. Presumably most of this particular spread That occurred was in workplaces, homes, grocery stores, etc.Though a bunch of folks did also blow off the quarantines early on doing 'quarantine parties' until there was a stronger crackdown.

Panama is now starting to gradually reopen up in mid-May.


So it appears the spread occurs mainly indoors or outside in cold weather. Outside when it is hot and the UV rays are strong there is little evidencie of spread.



Marcus Aurelius
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unmade bed
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https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/499334-arkansas-governor-says-several-people-who-attended-pool-party
DadHammer
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No
DadHammer
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Why in the world would you cough in someone's face? Ever?
tysker
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unmade bed said:

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/499334-arkansas-governor-says-several-people-who-attended-pool-party

Was it the pool or the party that caused the increase in cases? (Cases of HS-aged kids. How many had more than mild symptoms?)
eric76
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DadHammer said:

Why in the world would you cough in someone's face? Ever?
Hopefully, not intentionally.
Pumpkinhead
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sincereag said:

Pumpkinhead said:

B-1 83 said:

FlyRod said:

Yes. A study was just published showing how returning Spring Breakers not only increased transmission, but mortality rates too. I will find it when I can and link it here as an

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3606811
You assume it spread on the beach rather than in hotels, nightclubs, and restaurants. The same with the Panama example. The Panama example says nothing. Do people there stay outside all the time? Was it in families? Crowded homes or indoor public places?


Here is the more detailed data on Panama. In Spanish but fairly easy to follow. We got our first case here on March 8th.

In terms of spread the past couple of months, all beaches and public parks have been closed, and the population has been completely locked down with very restricted movement. Presumably most of this particular spread That occurred was in workplaces, homes, grocery stores, etc.Though a bunch of folks did also blow off the quarantines early on doing 'quarantine parties' until there was a stronger crackdown.

Panama is now starting to gradually reopen up in mid-May.


So it appears the spread occurs mainly indoors or outside in cold weather. Outside when it is hot and the UV rays are strong there is little evidencie of spread.






Logic says spread in climate controlled buildings or public transportation happens regardless of whether you are in Alaska or Equador.

Logic also says if you are have a high population density situation with people packed closely together outside even in hot humid weather, like a concert or outside bar or mardi gras parties, you'd still get a lot of spread.

Logic says the virus does survive shorter length in sunshine/heat, but because of the first two logics that I mentioned above, even tropical climate countries are having to deal with this COVID thing. Warmer sunnier weather may help a little in terms of outside spread, and people less likely to be huddled indoors in big groups, but it isn't some magic immunity pill. If it was, a country like Panama could have shrugged its shoulders and ate popcorn watching the North deal with this.
sincereag
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Just trying to determine how and where this virus spreads. According to a recent CDC statement, the virus doesn't spread easily on surfaces, so that reduces our concern over cleaning everything we touch. If the virus isn't easily transmitted in outdoors during the summer that would reduce our concerns about participating in outdoor activities that we enjoy.
BadMoonRisin
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8-year study on seasonality of Coronaviruses:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103416v1

Quote:

The seasonality of influenza viruses and endemic human coronaviruses was tracked over an 8-year period to assess key epidemiologic reduction points in disease incidence for an urban area in the northeast United States. Patients admitted to a pediatric hospital with worsening respiratory symptoms were tested using a multiplex PCR assay from nasopharyngeal swabs. The additive seasonal effects of outdoor temperatures and indoor relative humidity (RH) were evaluated. The 8-year average peak activity of human coronaviruses occurred in the first week of January, when droplet and contact transmission was enabled by the low indoor RH of 20-30%. Previous studies have shown that an increase in RH to 50% has been associated with markedly reduced viability and transmission of influenza virus and animal coronaviruses. As disease incidence was reduced by 50% in early March, to 75% in early April, to greater than 99% at the end of April, a relationship was observed from colder temperatures in January with a low indoor RH to a gradual increase in outdoor temperatures in April with an indoor RH of 45-50%. As a lipid-bound, enveloped virus with similar size characteristics to endemic human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 should be subject to the same dynamics of reduced viability and transmission with increased humidity. In addition to the major role of social distancing, the transition from lower to higher indoor RH with increasing outdoor temperatures could have an additive effect on the decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases in May. Over the 8-year period of this study, human coronavirus activity was either zero or >99% reduction in the months of June through September, and the implication would be that SARS-Cov-2 may follow a similar pattern.

Now, the question becomes, is there any evidence that COVID19 does NOT behave like other known corona viruses?
eric76
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It's being reported that Arkansas is seeing a major increase because of a high school pool party.

From http://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article242967096.html:
Quote:

A high school pool party "everybody thought was harmless" has fueled a second peak of coronavirus cases in Arkansas, Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Saturday.

"A high school swim party that I'm sure everybody thought was harmless," Hutchinson said at a press briefing, a video shows. "They're young, they're swimming, they're just having activity, and positive cases resulted from that."
Mikeyshooter
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eric76 said:

It's being reported that Arkansas is seeing a major increase because of a high school pool party.

From http://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article242967096.html:
Quote:

A high school pool party "everybody thought was harmless" has fueled a second peak of coronavirus cases in Arkansas, Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Saturday.

"A high school swim party that I'm sure everybody thought was harmless," Hutchinson said at a press briefing, a video shows. "They're young, they're swimming, they're just having activity, and positive cases resulted from that."


There were like 10 cases from that party.
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