beerad12man said:

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So if every single person in America is infected, and the symptomatic number of 0.0034 is correct, that would be 1,118,600

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Worst case maybe but not remotely realistic to assume every single person in the country will be infected

So cut the number in half and it's 500k?

Depending on treatments, which are still progressing and a vaccine if it works out.

How did you come to this conclusion?

terradactylexpress said:

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How did you come to this conclusion?

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https://covid19-projections.com/

terradactylexpress said:

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How did you come to this conclusion?

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there is a fair amount of evidence a vaccine wont help. The biggest hurdle for vaccine development will be making it safe for the at risk population. I think the work should continue on a vaccine, i think the current vaccine is in phase 1 testing because A great deal of work was done on SARs vaccine and this is really just a continuation of that process.

The work imo should be focussed on finding a therapy that prevents the symptomatic from getting worse and needing hospitalization. My opinion is all of these empty hotels could be used as quarentine areas where people could if they chose to be segregated and the Drs could really try and learn about the disease progression. Many texags posters consider this plan as a slippery slope towards concentration camps.

well it kinda is

if you're forcing positive tests cases to go there

if it's voluntary nbd

beerad12man said:

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Yes I agree. I'm merely saying if we assume worst case. It's still a blip. As much of a monster as it makes me sound

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A significant element that you are overlooking in your worst case scenario is the people who get really sick and dont die but have a chronic illness the rest of their lives and the cost of another milllion needing hospitalization who fully recovered.


more complete tally of worst case scenario
approximateltly 600,000 dead
3x-5x with permanent significant health imoacts { of course the 3-5 is a guess)
an additional 5x-7x who need hospitalization but fully recover. again 3-5 is a guess
doing the math you get approximate values of

Amended estimates based on a 25 % fatality rate among the hospitalized
600,000 dead
600,000 hospitalized and are discharged with a permanent chronic damage
1.2 million hospitalized and are discharged no long term affects.

widespread Testing opens up alot of difficult questions
Can an employer demand to know if one of his employees tests positive?
Do you think people who know they are positive should be allowed to freely move throughout the community?

I was specifically asking about dadhammers interpretation of charts that only go out a feed months and have been totally inaccurate to be able to make the statement that this was going to just go away on its own

i did not look at dadhammers link , just pointing out that a developing a suitable vaccine in a timely manner is a huge if.

Do we value human life based on death or how many die? If we had a population of 100 billion and a proportionate number dies, this being astronomically higher, does that make a disease worse? I don't follow that philosophy. The value or quality of life is not determined by its length. I know people that lived 45 years that have lived a better life than someone that's 90.

For so many Christians in this country that welcome the paradise in the afterlife, people seem very scared to die.

wait

isn't the full cohort hospitalization rate like 3x of IFR, not 8x?

i dont know hospitalization rate i was pointing out that for every x dead there is a factor of x that is hospitalized and those cases would be either fully recovered or long term negative side affects. i think the IFR to hospitalization rate is probably very dependent on location.

just counting the dead is only part of a worse case scenario letting the virus spread unabated

for example in NYC the hospitalization rate is around 4% across the full cohort

not sure what you are defining as full cohort,
but more importantly survival rate is much higher than it was even a few months ago so all of these ratios are dynamic. Some places especially Northern Italy many old people died at home because the hospitals were full. Again the factors i used were guesses and ranges quite possible my hospitalization rate is high. Still just counting the dead underestimates the impact.

here's the latest NYC data if you'd like to take a look

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

it's estimated there seroprevalence is around 20% and an IFR around 1%

Fwiw, as a point of comparison Spanish flu is estimated to have infected around 30% of the us population.

If we have a 0.4% IFR of symptomatic cases then We are talking more like 350-400k deaths if % of infected population ends up similar.

Considering that total would have been among the more optimistic estimations when this started we could be worse off.

don't look now but

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-brazil-killing-young-developing-world/2020/05/22/f76d83e8-99e9-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html

i will amend my prior guesses down. I was under the impression that the Drs were doing better than a 1 in 3 fatality rate. People who died without getting to a hospital would affect the ratio but that being said my guess initial guess was still too high.

cone said:

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don't look now but

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-brazil-killing-young-developing-world/2020/05/22/f76d83e8-99e9-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html

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That's fascinating. I wonder what the mitigating factor is? Viral load living in such close quarters? This disease is so strange.

Or maybe Brazil has done a decent job of protecting its old people, but a terrible job of slowing spread overall. If 30 million young people are infected, even at the tiny fatality rates we see elsewhere, that would be a lot of deaths.

I think we know enough about the virus now to say that it will act the same in different places, but demographics will have a huge effect on how the pandemic looks in different countries.

Proximity in an enclosed space and duration of exposure seem to be primary drivers of both infection and severity of disease. I have a half dozen clusters of cases now related to dominoes, card games, and bingo. One domino game 3 of 6 deceased.

Any demographics on those folks?

Mostly 50-60's. Mostly overweight/obese. All African American/Hispanic. Most with hypertension and/or diabetes. That however is basically the overall demographic of my hospitals catchment area.