An ER doctor sent this to me this morning. A health institute affiliated with the University of Washington did some forecast modeling

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Looks like New York is in a world of hurt.

Looks like Texas is on the low end of this projection so far.

Let's hope it stays that way.

Also prayers for our fellow Americans in New York.

My worry with Texas is that we are hardly testing anybody so our numbers look a lot better than they really are.

The_Fox said:

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Federale01 said:

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An ER doctor sent this to me this morning. A health institute affiliated with the University of Washington did some forecast modeling

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Looks like New York is in a world of hurt.

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Man, that does not look too bad. Looks like we should open everything back up in a few weeks. Thanks for posting.

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these are projections based on keeping social distancing in place. remove social distancing and the projections get worse

I hate to say it, but if we only have 80,000 deaths, that will be a huge positive.

thelaw4 said:

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The_Fox said:

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Federale01 said:

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An ER doctor sent this to me this morning. A health institute affiliated with the University of Washington did some forecast modeling

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Looks like New York is in a world of hurt.

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Man, that does not look too bad. Looks like we should open everything back up in a few weeks. Thanks for posting.

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these are projections based on keeping social distancing in place. remove social distancing and the projections get worse

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It could tens times that bad and we should still open back up after the peak in the middle of April. We will not see millions of deaths. Time to get the country back going.

As the numbers keep increasing on daily rates and more people have family and friends hit with this, it will be easier for others to understand. Of course there is the subset that will never understand.

Do you volunteer your loved ones as tribute?

The peak will be the peak because of the actions we are taking now. If we open things back up, there will be a second peak.

When we can get adequate testing and resources set up that allow us to deal with this through regular methods of tracking and isolation. We aren't there yet because we diddled around for two months pretending this wasn't going to come here.

The_Fox said:

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We are all going to die, my friend. I refuse to die cowered inside my home while the country crumbles around me or risk the future for my children or grandchildren by destroying their economic future or putting them on the path to socialism.

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I wonder if there was this much virtue signaling during the Great Depression. Or did people just STFU and find a way go get by until things got better.

I Am A Critic said:

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The_Fox said:

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We are all going to die, my friend. I refuse to die cowered inside my home while the country crumbles around me or risk the future for my children or grandchildren by destroying their economic future or putting them on the path to socialism.

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I wonder if there was this much virtue signaling during the Great Depression. Or did people just STFU and find a way go get by until things got better.

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Well, we might get to deal with both by May.

You don't know my life or how I am impacted. Like all of us, we all are dealing with unique situations that put us more or less at risk during this crisis, both in the financial and health sense. Those are a different balance for each person. Feel free to call your local elected leaders and let them know your thoughts on the matter because Texags can't change crap for you.

The_Fox said:

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Federale01 said:

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When we can get adequate testing and resources set up that allow us to deal with this through regular methods of tracking and isolation. We aren't there yet because we diddled around for two months pretending this wasn't going to come here.

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How long?

When do your paychecks stop?

Oh, that is right, you work for the government and are not impacted by this financially no matter how long this goes on.

Until you stop getting paid, your opinion means dick.

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The problem is that you seem to think that "opening the country" gets the economy and jobs going again. Open it up, spread the virus, the healthcare system gets worse, and almost no one will be flying, eating out, going to movies, hiring non-essential workers, buying unnecessary goods/services. In fact there is an argument to be made that not getting the virus under control first could make the economic hardship and long-term job loss much worse. IMO, we should have a hard-core shutdown for a month where no one is allowed out for virtually any reason (i.e. no travel/not going out because you ran out of butter like I see now). Rip the band-aid off and get this over with so we actually get it under control and then we can begin to get more people back to work.

It's incredible to me how many people who seem to want to label themselves as patriots can't go more than 2 weeks banding together for their country in crisis before wanting to throw caution to the wind.

That's not being a patriot, that's being selfish.

We all want this to be over. We all want to get back to work. Most of us are losing money.

That doesn't mean we ignore what the experts are telling us.

AggieJosh2002 said:

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The_Fox said:

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Federale01 said:

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When we can get adequate testing and resources set up that allow us to deal with this through regular methods of tracking and isolation. We aren't there yet because we diddled around for two months pretending this wasn't going to come here.

---

How long?

When do your paychecks stop?

Oh, that is right, you work for the government and are not impacted by this financially no matter how long this goes on.

Until you stop getting paid, your opinion means dick.

---

The problem is that you seem to think that "opening the country" gets the economy and jobs going again. Open it up, spread the virus, the healthcare system gets worse, and almost no one will be flying, eating out, going to movies, hiring non-essential workers, buying unnecessary goods/services. In fact there is an argument to be made that not getting the virus under control first could make the economic hardship and long-term job loss much worse. IMO, we should have a hard-core shutdown for a month where no one is allowed out for virtually any reason (i.e. no travel/not going out because you ran out of butter like I see now). Rip the band-aid off and get this over with so we actually get it under control and then we can begin to get more people back to work.

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If we open back up before we have thjs under cobtrol, the economic abd health impacts will be an order of magnitude worse. The cat is out if the bag. The economy cannot recover until we get this virus under control.

AggieJosh2002 said:

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The_Fox said:

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Federale01 said:

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When we can get adequate testing and resources set up that allow us to deal with this through regular methods of tracking and isolation. We aren't there yet because we diddled around for two months pretending this wasn't going to come here.

---

How long?

When do your paychecks stop?

Oh, that is right, you work for the government and are not impacted by this financially no matter how long this goes on.

Until you stop getting paid, your opinion means dick.

---

The problem is that you seem to think that "opening the country" gets the economy and jobs going again. Open it up, spread the virus, the healthcare system gets worse, and almost no one will be flying, eating out, going to movies, hiring non-essential workers, buying unnecessary goods/services. In fact there is an argument to be made that not getting the virus under control first could make the economic hardship and long-term job loss much worse. IMO, we should have a hard-core shutdown for a month where no one is allowed out for virtually any reason (i.e. no travel/not going out because you ran out of butter like I see now). Rip the band-aid off and get this over with so we actually get it under control and then we can begin to get more people back to work.

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Exactly. For some reason people have this strange idea that if we had done nothing from the start that there would have been no hit to the economy, and everyone would be in the exact same position they were in before this mess began, except people got sick for a few days. Because it's just the flu.

A guaranteed hit to the economy regardless, but with a dramatic increase in mortality rate. The only question is how big a hit to both sides of that equation. It's not a question of if both would have been impacted, but more a matter of how bad.

The_Fox said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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The_Fox said:

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Federale01 said:

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When we can get adequate testing and resources set up that allow us to deal with this through regular methods of tracking and isolation. We aren't there yet because we diddled around for two months pretending this wasn't going to come here.

---

How long?

When do your paychecks stop?

Oh, that is right, you work for the government and are not impacted by this financially no matter how long this goes on.

Until you stop getting paid, your opinion means dick.

---

The problem is that you seem to think that "opening the country" gets the economy and jobs going again. Open it up, spread the virus, the healthcare system gets worse, and almost no one will be flying, eating out, going to movies, hiring non-essential workers, buying unnecessary goods/services. In fact there is an argument to be made that not getting the virus under control first could make the economic hardship and long-term job loss much worse. IMO, we should have a hard-core shutdown for a month where no one is allowed out for virtually any reason (i.e. no travel/not going out because you ran out of butter like I see now). Rip the band-aid off and get this over with so we actually get it under control and then we can begin to get more people back to work.

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Just like Federale said you cannot know my individual economic or health situation. I just so happens even if everything you listed comes to fruition with the economy, which it will not, as long as the courts are open my business will be fine.

I happen to sell a necessary, constitutionally mandated, service.

Oh, and still not one person has answered how long do we keep it shut down? 10% unemployment? 20%?

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Except you have no way of knowing that for sure.

You aren't looking for answers, you are looking for a debate -- please go back to the News/Politics board for that.

The_Fox said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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The_Fox said:

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Federale01 said:

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When we can get adequate testing and resources set up that allow us to deal with this through regular methods of tracking and isolation. We aren't there yet because we diddled around for two months pretending this wasn't going to come here.

---

How long?

When do your paychecks stop?

Oh, that is right, you work for the government and are not impacted by this financially no matter how long this goes on.

Until you stop getting paid, your opinion means dick.

---

The problem is that you seem to think that "opening the country" gets the economy and jobs going again. Open it up, spread the virus, the healthcare system gets worse, and almost no one will be flying, eating out, going to movies, hiring non-essential workers, buying unnecessary goods/services. In fact there is an argument to be made that not getting the virus under control first could make the economic hardship and long-term job loss much worse. IMO, we should have a hard-core shutdown for a month where no one is allowed out for virtually any reason (i.e. no travel/not going out because you ran out of butter like I see now). Rip the band-aid off and get this over with so we actually get it under control and then we can begin to get more people back to work.

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Just like Federale said you cannot know my individual economic or health situation. I just so happens even if everything you listed comes to fruition with the economy, which it will not, as long as the courts are open my business will be fine.

I happen to sell a necessary, constitutionally mandated, service.

Oh, and still not one person has answered how long do we keep it shut down? 10% unemployment? 20%?

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Well as long as you're ok, then I say open er up!

The_Fox said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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The_Fox said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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The_Fox said:

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Federale01 said:

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When we can get adequate testing and resources set up that allow us to deal with this through regular methods of tracking and isolation. We aren't there yet because we diddled around for two months pretending this wasn't going to come here.

---

How long?

When do your paychecks stop?

Oh, that is right, you work for the government and are not impacted by this financially no matter how long this goes on.

Until you stop getting paid, your opinion means dick.

---

The problem is that you seem to think that "opening the country" gets the economy and jobs going again. Open it up, spread the virus, the healthcare system gets worse, and almost no one will be flying, eating out, going to movies, hiring non-essential workers, buying unnecessary goods/services. In fact there is an argument to be made that not getting the virus under control first could make the economic hardship and long-term job loss much worse. IMO, we should have a hard-core shutdown for a month where no one is allowed out for virtually any reason (i.e. no travel/not going out because you ran out of butter like I see now). Rip the band-aid off and get this over with so we actually get it under control and then we can begin to get more people back to work.

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Just like Federale said you cannot know my individual economic or health situation. I just so happens even if everything you listed comes to fruition with the economy, which it will not, as long as the courts are open my business will be fine.

I happen to sell a necessary, constitutionally mandated, service.

Oh, and still not one person has answered how long do we keep it shut down? 10% unemployment? 20%?

---

Except you have no way of knowing that for sure.

You aren't looking for answers, you are looking for a debate -- please go back to the News/Politics board for that.

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And you have no way of knowing how many people will die if we go back to work. It is all based on underlying assumptions. I guarantee the economic damage will exceed the health-related damage by a mile.

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Except I am listening to those that are considered experts in the field.

You keep saying you know things that you simply aren't qualified to know.

You are more than welcome to your opinion, but it's very clear you have made up your mind on it and aren't looking for answers, just a debate. This is not the forum for that.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560&mod=article_inline

Interesting read: "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu"

The key finding: "We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs (non-pharmeceutical interventions) not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic."

Or you can just ignore evidence and continue to wish the virus is not the cause of the economic crisis.

The_Fox said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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The_Fox said:

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Federale01 said:

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When we can get adequate testing and resources set up that allow us to deal with this through regular methods of tracking and isolation. We aren't there yet because we diddled around for two months pretending this wasn't going to come here.

---

How long?

When do your paychecks stop?

Oh, that is right, you work for the government and are not impacted by this financially no matter how long this goes on.

Until you stop getting paid, your opinion means dick.

---

The problem is that you seem to think that "opening the country" gets the economy and jobs going again. Open it up, spread the virus, the healthcare system gets worse, and almost no one will be flying, eating out, going to movies, hiring non-essential workers, buying unnecessary goods/services. In fact there is an argument to be made that not getting the virus under control first could make the economic hardship and long-term job loss much worse. IMO, we should have a hard-core shutdown for a month where no one is allowed out for virtually any reason (i.e. no travel/not going out because you ran out of butter like I see now). Rip the band-aid off and get this over with so we actually get it under control and then we can begin to get more people back to work.

---

Just like Federale said you cannot know my individual economic or health situation. I just so happens even if everything you listed comes to fruition with the economy, which it will not, as long as the courts are open my business will be fine.

I happen to sell a necessary, constitutionally mandated, service.

Oh, and still not one person has answered how long do we keep it shut down? 10% unemployment? 20%?

---

Ok, I'm glad that you can admit that you're opinion is based solely on your individual circumstances and what is good for you. At least we have a clear viewpoint.

I believe that our leaders should be basing decisions on what is best for our country as a whole (considering Public Health and the Economy) and not on any individuals or small segments desires (and yes this includes politicians perception of upcoming elections that should not be considered). My opinion is based upon public health and policy experts, and I think I'll keep it that way.

Obviously, none of us know what is going to happen or might happen with different responses. We have to trust our elected leaders to listen to experts from all areas and make sound, fact-based decisions on what is best for the whole, not the individual. We are at war, and that is what must be done.

I'm a small govt guy, but to me, situations like this are truly what really involved govt is for.

AggieJosh2002 said:

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The_Fox said:

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Federale01 said:

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When we can get adequate testing and resources set up that allow us to deal with this through regular methods of tracking and isolation. We aren't there yet because we diddled around for two months pretending this wasn't going to come here.

---

How long?

When do your paychecks stop?

Oh, that is right, you work for the government and are not impacted by this financially no matter how long this goes on.

Until you stop getting paid, your opinion means dick.

---

The problem is that you seem to think that "opening the country" gets the economy and jobs going again. Open it up, spread the virus, the healthcare system gets worse, and almost no one will be flying, eating out, going to movies, hiring non-essential workers, buying unnecessary goods/services. In fact there is an argument to be made that not getting the virus under control first could make the economic hardship and long-term job loss much worse. IMO, we should have a hard-core shutdown for a month where no one is allowed out for virtually any reason (i.e. no travel/not going out because you ran out of butter like I see now). Rip the band-aid off and get this over with so we actually get it under control and then we can begin to get more people back to work.

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How would you implement a month long hardcore shutdown? We NEED electricity, water, food, farms, medical supplies, truckers, health care, police, fire, cell phones, internet, etc. There are a lot of people that are required to leave their homes to provide those services. And those essential people need to be able to get things like gas in order to get to their essential jobs. It's just not feasible to force the entire population into their homes for a month.