How manipulated are China's Covid #'s?

6,468 Views | 48 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by MasterAggie
aggiez03
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AG
We all (most, at least) believe that China has been actively and intentionally obstructive, dishonest, and manipulative of the situation there, but information is beginning to emerge that projects the deaths in the city of Wuhan alone at between 40,000 and 50,000 people.

When the dust finally settles on all of this is it possible we are looking at a disease that was active back in Fall 2019 (October) and killed over 100,000 in China alone? Based on what I am hearing that may even be conservative.

Here is one of several articles that are new in the last 2 days discussing this and other censor measures.

Endless queues for ashes cast doubt on China deaths



Bruce Almighty
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AG
I don't think anyone believes China's numbers are real, and if they are, people have been dying of other communist ways.
aginlakeway
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AG
Bruce Almighty said:

I don't think anyone believes China's numbers are real, and if they are, people have been dying of other communist ways.

Everyone who believe the U.S. is #1 in cases believes China's numbers are real.
Thomas Ford 91
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AG
They are undercounting infections and deaths by a bunch. But, science I don't understand has dated the virus. It isn't that old. Those Chinese deaths all happened after December 1st.
BDub3
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AG
They kicked out all foreign journalists and then their numbers magically got better. Coincidence? I think not. Don't believe their numbers for a second.
AustinAg2K
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I think they undercounted/under reported, but I don't think it's running rampant there now. They took some draconian measures there.
Dad
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AG
If they locked you in your apartment and then went back a month later to find you dead, they probably assumed that you starved.
aggiez03
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AG
It is already known there were confirmed cases in China by the 17th of November. At least two that are confirmed. Unless the ratios of infected requiring medical attention to total infected have drastically been reduced since then, there was community spread occurring in Wuhan already by that point (when you consider up to 14 day incubation period).

So, if confirmed cases existed by 17 November, how many Covid infections actually were there prior to that that were simply misdiagnosed as "another virus" or influenza like illness in Wuhan?

This goes back to October, at least. The exact date may never be known but mid to late October is looking more and more likely for the start, or earlier.
hatchback
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AG
They're not reporting asymptomatic cases in their official numbers.

From the Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/4aa35288-3979-44f7-b204-b881f473fca0

Quote:

China's official figures for new coronavirus cases suggest transmission has all but ended in many regions, but local experts have warned that official numbers omit important categories of cases.

Quote:

Two nurses in Wuhan, who wished to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the pandemic, told the Financial Times of "hidden" infections that met the national criteria for confirmed cases but were not being recognised in the city's official count, helping to keep it at or near zero.
Cant Think of a Name
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AG
Maybe they have achieved herd immunity because the virus has run rampant in china since November?
MasterAggie
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Nothing that ever comes out of China has any truth to it.
AllTheFishes
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AG
Go over to the daily charts thread and look at their numbers in the last 10 days and then look at everyone else. That is not a natural data set, it's too smooth while the rest of numbers jump around.

The scary thing is they are also lying to themselves at the highest levels. It's built into the culture, nobody wants to give bad news to their higher ups. So the lowest level builds in a false reduction, then the next level up does the same thing. Then when they get to Xi what he see's isn't even close to reality but I expect those numbers get another massaging before they are published to save face on the national stage.
Infection_Ag11
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AG
I don't think anyone, inside or outside of the healthcare industry, believes China's data is 100% kosher.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
One-Eyed Fat Man
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AG
Question - do y'all think our numbers are accurate? Not trying to take a political position for anyone who wishes to label it as such. We have a history of massaging the facts.

In 1982, CBS-TV aired a documentary titled "The Uncounted Enemy: A Vietnam Deception." Alleging a "conspiracy at the highest levels of military intelligence," it charged that MACV conspired to keep the order-of-battle below 300,000-a figure half the actual enemy strength-in order to sustain the fiction the war was being won. The chief source for "The Uncounted Enemy" was former CIA intelligence analyst Sam Adams, who died in 1988, at age 55.



Little Bill
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I saw a video where the person was researching the published number of cell phone subscriptions by the three major cell companies in China. Collectively, their subscriptions were down 21 million since October.

21 million cell phone phones disappeared21 million. That is the true death toll in a China.
AllTheFishes
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AG
One-Eyed Fat Man said:

Question - do y'all think our numbers are accurate? Not trying to take a political position for anyone who wishes to label it as such. We have a history of massaging the facts.

In 1982, CBS-TV aired a documentary titled "The Uncounted Enemy: A Vietnam Deception." Alleging a "conspiracy at the highest levels of military intelligence," it charged that MACV conspired to keep the order-of-battle below 300,000-a figure half the actual enemy strength-in order to sustain the fiction the war was being won. The chief source for "The Uncounted Enemy" was former CIA intelligence analyst Sam Adams, who died in 1988, at age 55.




I think they are honest, accurate is a different measure. Each state and in many cases local counties are publishing their numbers. It would be impossible to effect a cover up at that level. There is a huge difference between that and a hand full of intel analyst putting together numbers that can't be questioned or checked on by the media.
agdad4x
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kinda like the ol' joke about why an elephant painted a yellow strip down his back -

why did he, so he could hide in the middle of an interstate - have you ever seen an elephant in the middle of an interstate? no ? yellow stripe works then !!

in other words, prove a negative - we can't

believe the folks from china? are their lips moving ? inverse answer: yes then no
shalackin
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AG
In today's world of open channels of communication, how is it even possible that they can cover up that many deaths in a situation like this? Don't we have spies? WHO? I mean, crap, I play clash of clans against people in china. Wouldn't it be getting out?

**** now, i agree, I don't believe them either. just wondering how it is possible.
Tmoneyag99
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AG
AllTheFishes said:

Go over to the daily charts thread and look at their numbers in the last 10 days and then look at everyone else. That is not a natural data set, it's too smooth while the rest of numbers jump around.

The scary thing is they are also lying to themselves at the highest levels. It's built into the culture, nobody wants to give bad news to their higher ups. So the lowest level builds in a false reduction, then the next level up does the same thing. Then when they get to Xi what he see's isn't even close to reality but I expect those numbers get another massaging before they are published to save face on the national stage.
AllTheFishes
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Cant Think of a Name said:

Maybe they have achieved herd immunity because the virus has run rampant in china since November?
To have achieved herd immunity they would be well above the reported number that is currently less than 100,000 total cases. Even localized herd immunity would be in the 100's of millions of cases. I think the 21 million shut off cell phones might be a lot closer to the real number of deaths. You would have to remove the number of cell phones that would normally be shut off in that time span and the delta would give you the real number. But it's in the millions of deaths and 100's of millions of cases is my uneducated guess.
AllTheFishes
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shalackin said:

In today's world of open channels of communication, how is it even possible that they can cover up that many deaths in a situation like this? Don't we have spies? WHO? I mean, crap, I play clash of clans against people in china. Wouldn't it be getting out?

**** now, i agree, I don't believe them either. just wondering how it is possible.
That world of open channels of communication doesn't exist in China. Everything, including your clash of clans games is monitored. They have a magic switch that can turn off all external internet traffic. It's been done more than once. People who try to put out information different from what Xi's government are saying go to reeducation camps. Do a google search on China's reeducation camps. They are a real thing.

BTW, have those Chinese clash of clan's players been on recently?
RieselAggie99
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AG
So Wuhan and Hubei were infected for almost two months while China denied and suppressed the data. Now Shanghai and Beijing have lower numbers than Hong Kong?

It doesn't make sense and can't be possible knowing how contagious it is.

Why do you think Iran and Italy were hit hard? Because Chinese contractors were flying back and forth for Chinese New Years and both those countries have large funded Chinese construction projects.

China has no independent pursuit of truth and no government accountability.

The scary part is if they really don't acknowledge the issue, they will cause another COVID wave once we start to try and travel or they will cause another pandemic next flu season.
Anti-taxxer
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AG
Pretty sure China has been lying their asses off about everything.

That's really all you need to know.
DCAggie13y
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One-Eyed Fat Man said:

Question - do y'all think our numbers are accurate? Not trying to take a political position for anyone who wishes to label it as such. We have a history of massaging the facts.

In 1982, CBS-TV aired a documentary titled "The Uncounted Enemy: A Vietnam Deception." Alleging a "conspiracy at the highest levels of military intelligence," it charged that MACV conspired to keep the order-of-battle below 300,000-a figure half the actual enemy strength-in order to sustain the fiction the war was being won. The chief source for "The Uncounted Enemy" was former CIA intelligence analyst Sam Adams, who died in 1988, at age 55.






Our testing is decentralized being done by different labs and collected and reported at the local and state level. The media is watching Trump lile a hawk. Conspiracy not possible in the US.

It is possible in any country with highly centralized control like China. Russian numbers are probably bogus for example.
BANA89
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BANA89
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AG
Really, it is more disturbing that the World Health Organization has believed and perpetuated their lies at the cost of thousands of lives lost already.
m-walker
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shalackin said:

In today's world of open channels of communication, how is it even possible that they can cover up that many deaths in a situation like this? Don't we have spies? WHO? I mean, crap, I play clash of clans against people in china. Wouldn't it be getting out?

**** now, i agree, I don't believe them either. just wondering how it is possible.


Agree. There is too much information involved. Similar to the reports about the number of cell phone accounts cancelled. They don't let virus information out, but they let that information out? Now this OP about the urns. Cities their size, locked down for that duration, going to have a lot of dead people regardless of the virus.

There will never be truth about anything. Information will always come out supporting both arguments.
L08
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AllTheFishes said:

Cant Think of a Name said:

Maybe they have achieved herd immunity because the virus has run rampant in china since November?
To have achieved herd immunity they would be well above the reported number that is currently less than 100,000 total cases. Even localized herd immunity would be in the 100's of millions of cases. I think the 21 million shut off cell phones might be a lot closer to the real number of deaths. You would have to remove the number of cell phones that would normally be shut off in that time span and the delta would give you the real number. But it's in the millions of deaths and 100's of millions of cases is my uneducated guess.
Many of them could not work. Wouldn't a good portion of those just get shut off due to lack of payment?
Moon Shadow
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Huh 1900, uh make that 190, No, 19!
Complete Idiot
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I think China expelled journalists from specific US newspapers, rather than "all foreign journalists" - is that correct?

Since Wuhan is huge I was trying to find reports from foreigners living there but only found https://www.facebook.com/groups/705606302843233/ - not much there. I didn't look very hard though.

On the wireless drop of 20 million customers, I found https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200327/business/chinese-operators-lose-21-million-subscribers which describes the drop from 1.6 billion to 1.58 billion - more subscriptions than there are people in CHina. You could believe some of it was due to less foreigners traveling in, people out of work permanently or temporarily, due to mobile store closures like in America, etc. Could also be far fewer humans due to Covid death, I guess, if we don't believe their deceased numbers.

It's not hard for me to believe CHina used extreme measures to lock down the sick and all nearby residents. They can get away with control of their populace we can't here. If would seem if that is how they stopped it then as soon as they reopen businesses and travel it would just come back, no? We'll see.

I did note Starbucks and Apple reopening their stores in China, so they must feel the environment is safer now then when they closed. Or maybe the Chinese government forced them open, I don't know.

I'm not immune to conspiracies but the problem is there is never any proof - which is why they are theories.
74OA
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AG
It's all part of the Communist Party's campaign to deflect blame for letting a manageable epidemic become a global pandemic. Disinformation
rgag12
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BANA89 said:

Really, it is more disturbing that the World Health Organization has believed and perpetuated their lies at the cost of thousands of lives lost already.


AllTheFishes
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Complete Idiot said:

On the wireless drop of 20 million customers, I found https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200327/business/chinese-operators-lose-21-million-subscribers which describes the drop from 1.6 billion to 1.58 billion - more subscriptions than there are people in CHina. You could believe some of it was due to less foreigners traveling in, people out of work permanently or temporarily, due to mobile store closures like in America, etc. Could also be far fewer humans due to Covid death, I guess, if we don't believe their deceased numbers.
I agree that the entire 20 million drop isn't from deaths. As someone else mentioned, probably a lot of people dropped because they lost work and couldn't pay. Lots of drops are from the lack of foreign travel as well.

The question then is what percentage is from deaths and what percentage is from all the other things? 50% would still be 10 million deaths, even 10% at 2 million deaths exceeds by a significant amount anything the Chinese government is putting out.
Snap E Tom
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rgag12 said:

BANA89 said:

Really, it is more disturbing that the World Health Organization has believed and perpetuated their lies at the cost of thousands of lives lost already.



EFF THE CCP AND THE WHO
PeekingDuck
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AG
BANA89 said:

Really, it is more disturbing that the World Health Organization has believed and perpetuated their lies at the cost of thousands of lives lost already.
There's a lot of money involved.
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