Over 100,000 cases

6,119 Views | 43 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Tbs2003
Johnny2Fan
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And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
FireAg
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AG
Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
thelaw4
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FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.
AvidAggie
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I think he's doing a pretty good job. The one thing I didn't agree with was the early dismissal of the threat but since then he seems to be handling it well.
AvidAggie
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thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.


Have we not beat to death that there are MANY MANY cases out there that are not being tested.

So death rate is lower than 1.5.
FireAg
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thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.
The denominator is going to continue to grow as we do more tests...

It's not as deadly as we thought...
TXAggie2011
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AG
Deaths lag behind cases. Don't calculate it that way.
Infection_Ag11
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thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.


The true mortality will level off around 0.5%
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
thelaw4
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FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.
The denominator is going to continue to grow as we do more tests...

It's not as deadly as we thought...
You hope its not, but the data is not currently suggesting that its not
ABATTBQ11
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AvidAggie said:

I think he's doing a pretty good job. The one thing I didn't agree with was the early dismissal of the threat but since then he seems to be handling it well.


I can't fault him for that. Most people dismiss black swans until after the fact. We're simply not mentally prepared for accepting or predicting random events like this when we have no experience with their frequency.
FireAg
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thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.
The denominator is going to continue to grow as we do more tests...

It's not as deadly as we thought...
You hope its not, but the data is not currently suggesting that its not
Yes, yes it is...

The positive tests are growing exponentially while the death rate is not...
Tbs2003
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FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.
The denominator is going to continue to grow as we do more tests...

It's not as deadly as we thought...
You hope its not, but the data is not currently suggesting that its not
Yes, yes it is...

The positive tests are growing exponentially while the death rate is not...
That is absolutely not true. Look at the death chart here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

on a log chart (option at the top of the chart). The straight line means it's exponential. The exponent is not quite as steep as for total cases (0.24 vs. 0.29), but it is catching up over time.
AggieJ2002
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FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.
The denominator is going to continue to grow as we do more tests...

It's not as deadly as we thought...


It seems that it is as deadly as we thought knowing it won't be horrendous death tolls as long as we dont overwhelm the hospitals (like Italy). We still dont know if the measures taken have been effective or not so hopefully the death toll stays that low.

The comments from health providers in NYC show that the seriousness of this virus has not been overstated, and we should not minimize that fact.
goodAg80
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WoMD
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FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.
The denominator is going to continue to grow as we do more tests...

It's not as deadly as we thought...
You hope its not, but the data is not currently suggesting that its not
Yes, yes it is...

The positive tests are growing exponentially while the death rate is not...

As has already been pointed out, deaths lag behind cases. This is a significant factor that you can't just ignore and pretend isn't a critical component to this assessment.
TMfrisco
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Tbs2003 said:

FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.
The denominator is going to continue to grow as we do more tests...

It's not as deadly as we thought...
You hope its not, but the data is not currently suggesting that its not
Yes, yes it is...

The positive tests are growing exponentially while the death rate is not...
That is absolutely not true. Look at the death chart here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

on a log chart (option at the top of the chart). The straight line means it's exponential. The exponent is not quite as steep as for total cases (0.24 vs. 0.29), but it is catching up over time.
The problem is how people perceive "Exponential" vs what it really is. I had this discussion on the Politics Board. I am not a Math Nerd so I had to ask a lot of questions. What I have discovered is any "growth" is "Exponential" until it stops. The "rate" is what throws us off. Us non-math people think of "Exponential" in the vein of 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128... Which I realize is just "doubling".

Right now, the "Daily Death Number" is tracking at about 1.5% of the "Daily New Cases". The odd part of that, to me, is people are not dying until 14-21 days (on average) after they get the virus. Does that mean the "Fatality Rate" is really much higher because the number of new cases 14-21 days ago was many less. Or, are there really that many more unreported cases out there?
Johnny2Fan
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You also conveniently left out the bigger climb in recovered case's. Why?
itsyourboypookie
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#stillnottiredofwinning
Fitch
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AG
Time will tell.

The numerator is what changes lives, though.
Tbs2003
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You're exactly right - there are two competing factors in play:

  • the fact that deaths lag new cases, which cases the mortality rate to increase a bit over time, especially as the spread slows down (i.e., you tend to have a slug of additional deaths from the large number of new cases over the prior couple of weeks that are still progressing as the new cases slow down
  • the reality that there are probably a fairly large number of cases that will never be recorded as cases because they resolved before the individual got tested. This would only act to reduce the number in the denominator, so it would drive the mortality rate down. There's a lot of speculation about how many cases are not being identified, both because (1) testing, especially in places like Texas, is incredibly hard to come by and (2) there may be a significant number of folks that have symptoms so mild (or that are totally asymptomatic) that they never even think about being tested.

The second point is where you see a lot of debate. Some professionals speculate that we may be massively underrepresenting existing cases because there are a magnitude of asymptomatic cases, and the handful of very early associated deaths were not recognized as COVID-2019 cases. I'm skeptical, but there is at least an argument that the curves would still look the same under the super-low mortality rate / huge number of cases scenario vs. the 1-2% mortality rate / lower number of cases. That's the difficulty of dealing with diseases that spread exponentially.
Mordred
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FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.
The denominator is going to continue to grow as we do more tests...

It's not as deadly as we thought...
You hope its not, but the data is not currently suggesting that its not
Yes, yes it is...

The positive tests are growing exponentially while the death rate is not...
Tbs2003 already answered you, but since you seemed to have trouble reading log plots, maybe this will hone it in for you. I threw this chart together really quick. Red line is total deaths. Blue line is the # of days it took our total deaths to double. Since March 15th, it has doubled roughly every 2.6 days. That's kind of the definition of exponential, and you can see by the trend line, it's accelerating.


94chem
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Math comment: The encouraging sign will be when the number of new cases and/or the number of deaths does not exceed the previous day. That will mean that the growth is linear rather than exponential.

If the number of new deaths exceeds the prior day by 26%, that means that on day 1 if there were 100 deaths, there would be 200 new deaths by day 4. In other words, doubling the daily death rate every 3 days.

This shows the extraordinary difference in the percent number, here 0 vs 26. This is stuff people should have learned in HS, but many didn't. It's why you should invest aggressively if you are young, in the amount you save, the earliness you save it, and the percent return you get. It's just the "miracle of compounding," applied here to a pandemic.

The bottom line is that cutting the percentage of compounding is huge, and not that far from our grasp of we let the math work for us.
TexasAggie008
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AG
We can all agree that Germany's math can be trusted, right? And that they've been as squared away in handling this (including massive testing) as anyone?

Their data (based on much more tests/capita than us) shows a death rate of .5%

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/27/germany-increases-its-covid-19-tests-to-500-000-per-week
t - cam
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FireAg said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.
The denominator is going to continue to grow as we do more tests...

It's not as deadly as we thought...

You haven't been listening.
t - cam
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Johnny2Fan said:

You also conveniently left out the bigger climb in recovered case's. Why?


The # of hospital beds doesn't increase with the # of cases. People are really missing what this crisis is about. Corona, as a virus is not that deadly, Corona as a virus is extremely contagious.
It doesn't matter how bad your army is if you can simply overwhelm your opponent with shear #'s.
TAMUallen
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Are we expected to double infections in roughly 3 days still?
littlebitofhifi
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t - cam said:


The # of hospital beds doesn't increase with the # of cases. People are really missing what this crisis is about. Corona, as a virus is not that deadly, Corona as a virus is extremely contagious.
It doesn't matter how bad your army is if you can simply overwhelm your opponent with shear #'s.


This.
murse
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I don't think there is that much of a lag because many aren't being tested until day 5-7 after infection and in many cases the results for that test doesn't come in until 3-7 days after that. That would be a new case reported around the same time that the patient expires.
1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing
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AvidAggie said:

thelaw4 said:

FireAg said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!
That and it's not nearly as deadly as some said...
Thats a 1.5 death rate, which is in line with the projections.

Most of the deaths in Italy are a result of the hospitals being overrun. Only NYC is currently facing that issue, but its very very early. I pray that that doesnt happen here.


Have we not beat to death that there are MANY MANY cases out there that are not being tested.

So death rate is lower than 1.5.
Philip J Fry
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t - cam said:

Johnny2Fan said:

You also conveniently left out the bigger climb in recovered case's. Why?


The # of hospital beds doesn't increase with the # of cases. People are really missing what this crisis is about. Corona, as a virus is not that deadly, Corona as a virus is extremely contagious.
It doesn't matter how bad your army is if you can simply overwhelm your opponent with shear #'s.
H.E. Pennypacker
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It's never been about mortality rate (though .5 is still significantly worse than the flu, to take it back to the original denial tactic). It's about the percentage of the population that gets it all at once or within a short period. That's when the numbers start seeming ominous.
H.E. Pennypacker
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Also, there's a really celebratory feel to this thread. Did I miss something significant that shows improvement? By my estimation, it's going to continue "worsening" for another week at least.
Gizzards
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Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!

Way too early to claim that we are winning this war.
Mordred
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Gizzards said:

Johnny2Fan said:

And 1,500 deaths,. USA is doing a damn good job. Thanks to our great doctors, nurses and American people jumping on this virus. And a great job by our president, Donald Trump!

Way too early to claim that we are winning this war.
"I guess you didn't see how we bombed Pearl Harbor!" - Residents of JapanRisingSun.com/forum/16 circa 1945
Grapesoda2525
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AvidAggie said:

I think he's doing a pretty good job. The one thing I didn't agree with was the early dismissal of the threat but since then he seems to be handling it well.
Trumpers will think trump does a good job no matter what.
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