The first three seem to be population dense areas/gatherings where hot spots have arisen. Why has that not been the case with the Houston Rodeo? It went on for over a week before being canceled. I would expect we'd be seeing thousands and thousands of cases in Houston metro by now.
Spring Break, NYC, Mardi Gras, and Houston Rodeo
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Last: 4 yr ago by TXAggie2011
Another event I expected to spread the virus was ConExpo in Vegas, but most people I know who went to that self quarantined for two weeks when they returned.
Because in the entire state of TX, only 21,424 tests have been done (as of Abbott's press conference the other day)...?
Logic suggests it has spread, there just haven't been enough tests performed to measure.
The entire state of MS, which has a population of 3 million, has 485 cases.
The greater Houston area, with a population of 7 million, only has 420 cases.
Logic suggests it has spread, there just haven't been enough tests performed to measure.
The entire state of MS, which has a population of 3 million, has 485 cases.
The greater Houston area, with a population of 7 million, only has 420 cases.
My wife works for a large clinic in Houston, and they've seen hundreds of suspected cases via telemedicine that are never confirmed due to lack of test availability. This is one small team in a single clinic location. Not hard to get into the thousands of cases assuming what she's seen is representative of the larger population. I tend to believe the low number of confirmed cases is absence of evidence as opposed to evidence of absence.
It probably benefitted from the fact that it is a regional event. The rodeo pulls in thousands, but most from the Houston area. The other events pulls in visitors from around the country or, in Mardi gras' case, around the world. If it was in lower numbers in your local population, then there would be less spread if that group gathered than if people from places where it was more prevalent gathered. Just a guess.
hopefully by cancelling rodeo when we did we avoided the case-cluster-widespread issue. One person infecting persons on one day at the rodeo, then those persons are infectious days later, and had they then all gone to the rodeo would have infected hundreds. This is broadly speaking. Mardi Gras probably had serial returnees to activities there and extended the spread. We are seeing clusters from the rodeo but hopefully those are curtailed by social distancing that went into effect thereafter.
Because it was shut down before Spring Break when the crowds REALLY get bad.
This.jh0400 said:
My wife works for a large clinic in Houston, and they've seen hundreds of suspected cases via telemedicine that are never confirmed due to lack of test availability. This is one small team in a single clinic location. Not hard to get into the thousands of cases assuming what she's seen is representative of the larger population. I tend to believe the low number of confirmed cases is absence of evidence as opposed to evidence of absence.
Most CV cases are unreported .... symptomatic without visiting clinic, telemedicine, symptomatic but sent home without test to self-quarantine, huge number of asymptomatic, etc.
Could be as simple as the fact that there were not many people in attendence who had it. Local transmission had not yet been observed I believed and I think only two cases of people who went to the rodeo who were later confirmed to be infected. Both of them are travel cases I believe.
False. The damage was done. Just not enough testing to show how bad this already is.
HotardAg07 said:
Could be as simple as the fact that there were not many people in attendence who had it. Local transmission had not yet been observed I believed and I think only two cases of people who went to the rodeo who were later confirmed to be infected. Both of them are travel cases I believe.
If I'm not mistaken, the LEO who went to the rodeo is a case of community spread. He had not traveled. Of course, who knows if he got it and gave it to his companion or if she had it and gave it to him.
My first thought when New Orleans started blowing up was Mardi Gras... my girlfriend and I, along with another couple, were there the for the big Mardi Gras weekend and left the day before Fat Tuesday. I know I heard accents and languages from at least 10 different countries. None of us got sick, and we've been back for over a month, well past the incubation period. But it does have me wondering if I may have already had it and was asymptomatic.
Am I misremembering or had the LEO companion returned from having been in New Orleans?
For those saying it's simply not enough testing (which I agree we are way behind on), what about the disparity in the hospital situation?
If the only reason our numbers were lower was simply because we weren't testing enough, we should still have as many people in our hospitals as these other areas. And by all accounts they are on the brink of capacity and supplies. We don't seem to be anywhere near that.
Better hospital system? Responding quicker? Just a few days behind them?
If the only reason our numbers were lower was simply because we weren't testing enough, we should still have as many people in our hospitals as these other areas. And by all accounts they are on the brink of capacity and supplies. We don't seem to be anywhere near that.
Better hospital system? Responding quicker? Just a few days behind them?
Pulmcrit_ag said:
Am I misremembering or had the LEO companion returned from having been in New Orleans?
Her case is reported through Galveston County. Their listing of cases in the KHOU website doesn't say anything about her going to NOLA. Doesn't mean it didn't happen, just nothing about it on the website I'm looking at.
Spring Break helped create the ATL outbreak
htxag09 said:
For those saying it's simply not enough testing (which I agree we are way behind on), what about the disparity in the hospital situation?
If the only reason our numbers were lower was simply because we weren't testing enough, we should still have as many people in our hospitals as these other areas. And by all accounts they are on the brink of capacity and supplies. We don't seem to be anywhere near that.
Better hospital system? Responding quicker? Just a few days behind them?
Anecdotally, I'm hearing that hospitals are keeping a lid on their admissions and not giving info until someone tests positive. So, who knows how many people are hospitalized waiting on a test result.
Also, you've got to expect there are a lot of cases walking around whose symptoms aren't severe enough (yet) to require hospitalization (or even qualify for testing) or who haven't started exhibiting symptoms...yet.
PFG said:
False. The damage was done. Just not enough testing to show how bad this already is.
That's not false.
The rodeo was closed before Spring Break crowds. That's absolutely true.
Testing aside if it were to have gone on into SB it would've been worse.
Federale01 said:
It probably benefitted from the fact that it is a regional event. The rodeo pulls in thousands, but most from the Houston area. The other events pulls in visitors from around the country or, in Mardi gras' case, around the world. If it was in lower numbers in your local population, then there would be less spread if that group gathered than if people from places where it was more prevalent gathered. Just a guess.
My thoughts as well. SXSW would have been a disaster if not cancelled.
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That was 16 days ago, shouldn't the damage be very apparent by now?PFG said:
False. The damage was done. Just not enough testing to show how bad this already is.
It's apparent to the people who are seeing affected patients.
I've spoken with several Houston doctors and an epidemiologist, working in different locations in Medical Center and every single one is very nervous and concerned the worst it yet to come.jh0400 said:
It's apparent to the people who are seeing affected patients.
They've all seen, in various hospitals, the challenge notably ramp up in the past few days and they only expect it to get worse in the coming days.
(Quite sadly, one of them lost a 30 year old patient to the virus a couple of days ago, and that really shook them.)
Of course, they're all hopeful the measures taken recently will prevent the very worst.
Hopefully. Its also a situation that when the crowds really pack in for concerts, its a younger crowd, so hopefully that helps.Quote:
Could be as simple as the fact that there were not many people in attendence who had it. Local transmission had not yet been observed I believed and I think only two cases of people who went to the rodeo who were later confirmed to be infected. Both of them are travel cases I believe.
This. Either there are not enough tests or they are not being used. One of my co-workers is very sick with respiratory issues, and finally went to the hospital last night. Doctors and nurses wore full hazmat suits and treated her...but did not test.TXTransplant said:
Because in the entire state of TX, only 21,424 tests have been done (as of Abbott's press conference the other day)...?
Logic suggests it has spread, there just haven't been enough tests performed to measure.
The entire state of MS, which has a population of 3 million, has 485 cases.
The greater Houston area, with a population of 7 million, only has 420 cases.
That's so weird.tkAustinAg said:This. Either there are not enough tests or they are not being used. One of my co-workers is very sick with respiratory issues, and finally went to the hospital last night. Doctors and nurses wore full hazmat suits and treated her...but did not test.TXTransplant said:
Because in the entire state of TX, only 21,424 tests have been done (as of Abbott's press conference the other day)...?
Logic suggests it has spread, there just haven't been enough tests performed to measure.
The entire state of MS, which has a population of 3 million, has 485 cases.
The greater Houston area, with a population of 7 million, only has 420 cases.
How old is she? Did they just "Send her home"?
Yep...just sent her back home. She is in her early 40s...no health issues (that I know of). This is her 2nd trip to the ER and they have treated and released her both times. Hazmat suits for the doctors and nurses...but no test.Aust Ag said:That's so weird.tkAustinAg said:This. Either there are not enough tests or they are not being used. One of my co-workers is very sick with respiratory issues, and finally went to the hospital last night. Doctors and nurses wore full hazmat suits and treated her...but did not test.TXTransplant said:
Because in the entire state of TX, only 21,424 tests have been done (as of Abbott's press conference the other day)...?
Logic suggests it has spread, there just haven't been enough tests performed to measure.
The entire state of MS, which has a population of 3 million, has 485 cases.
The greater Houston area, with a population of 7 million, only has 420 cases.
How old is she? Did they just "Send her home"?
What the hell did they treat her for? Just some oxygen and release?tkAustinAg said:Yep...just sent her back home. She is in her early 40s...no health issues (that I know of). This is her 2nd trip to the ER and they have treated and released her both times. Hazmat suits for the doctors and nurses...but no test.Aust Ag said:That's so weird.tkAustinAg said:This. Either there are not enough tests or they are not being used. One of my co-workers is very sick with respiratory issues, and finally went to the hospital last night. Doctors and nurses wore full hazmat suits and treated her...but did not test.TXTransplant said:
Because in the entire state of TX, only 21,424 tests have been done (as of Abbott's press conference the other day)...?
Logic suggests it has spread, there just haven't been enough tests performed to measure.
The entire state of MS, which has a population of 3 million, has 485 cases.
The greater Houston area, with a population of 7 million, only has 420 cases.
How old is she? Did they just "Send her home"?
There's clearly not enough tests. The counts on all the websites out there only "confirmed" but anecdotes abound about people not getting tested but having symptoms.
If this thing does deteriorate, which is a guess only at this point, the apparent surges would be in early April.
If this thing does deteriorate, which is a guess only at this point, the apparent surges would be in early April.
(Quite sadly, one of them lost a 30 year old patient to the virus a couple of days ago, and that really shook them.)
Just awful. Hate to hear that, especially as a 30 yo
One thing that has helped limit spread in Houston is our lack of a robust mass transit system. Also think elected officials shutting things down fairly quickly and our weather are factors. Still expect a significant peak in the next few weeks but nothing like NY.
This has to be a good portion of it. I've been to several rodeos and while they are crowded, it was NOTHING like being on Bourbon street during Mardi Gras.Federale01 said:
It probably benefitted from the fact that it is a regional event. The rodeo pulls in thousands, but most from the Houston area. The other events pulls in visitors from around the country or, in Mardi gras' case, around the world. If it was in lower numbers in your local population, then there would be less spread if that group gathered than if people from places where it was more prevalent gathered. Just a guess.
Houston Rodeo has been shutdown for 15 days. Wouldn't we have already seen the surge by now?
~90% of test results have come back negative thus far in Texas.
So yes there are a lot of anecdotal but 90% are likely negative.
So yes there are a lot of anecdotal but 90% are likely negative.
I'd like to know what the 90% actually turn up as, flu, pneumonia, or just allergies or whatever?JP_Losman said:
~90% of test results have come back negative thus far in Texas.
So yes there are a lot of anecdotal but 90% are likely negative.