Warren Nolan: Actual Impact of Winning UIW Game--Essentially Zero

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TXAggie2011
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11:37a, 5/17/22
AG
Despite the cancellation, Nolan Warren still posted the possible impact of the UIW game on our RPI.

If we win, setting aside all other results, our RPI would drop 7 "points". That's the equivalent of 7/10,000ths or 0.07%.

That's essentially a rounding error in the RPI. Boyd's World doesn't even report RPIs to that many decimal points. The impact of the win would be to drop from 19th to 20th, as Wake Forest would move ahead of us by 1 "point."

To put the impact of the UIW game on our RPI in perspective, if Mississippi State beats North Alabama at home tonight, our RPI will increase by 3 points and we would move back ahead of Wake Forest, setting everything else aside.


Not to say the impact is exactly 0, not to say we shouldn't have cancelled the game (both teams both have other good reasons not to play it), but the hubbub about RPI it has caused seems disproportionate to what would have actually happened.

Carry on.

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greg.w.h
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 11:45a, 5/17/22
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
Despite the cancellation, Nolan Warren still posted the possible impact of the UIW game on our RPI.

If we win, setting aside all other results, our RPI would drop 7 "points". That's the equivalent of 7/10,000ths or 0.07%.

That's essentially a rounding error in the RPI. Boyd's World doesn't even report RPIs to that many decimal points. The impact of the win would be to drop from 19th to 20th, as Wake Forest would move ahead of us by 1 "point."

To put the impact of the UIW game on our RPI in perspective, if Mississippi State beats North Alabama at home tonight, our RPI will increase by 3 points and we would move back ahead of Wake Forest, setting everything else aside.


Not to say the impact is exactly 0, not to say we shouldn't have cancelled the game (both teams both have other good reasons not to play it), but the hubbub about RPI it has caused seems disproportionate to what would have actually happened.

Carry on.

RPI is at best a crutch. In all of its uses.
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TexasLeaguer
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11:49a, 5/17/22
AG
It's not just about what happens if you win - we get docked in RPI. It's also about if we lose - we get docked in RPI. Point is, it's a lose lose situation with literally no upside.

Incarnate Ward would beat us maybe 1 out of 6 games and we'd win 5 out of 6 games. But, no matter the outcome, in 6 out of 6 games our RPI drops.
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EMY92
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12:00p, 5/17/22
AG
I think the bigger issue is our lack of pitching depth. We are fighting to win the SECW, we don't have arms to burn on Tuesday when some may be needed on Thursday.
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t - cam
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In reply to TexasLeaguer • 12:00p, 5/17/22
AG
TexasLeaguer said:
It's not just about what happens if you win - we get docked in RPI. It's also about if we lose - we get docked in RPI. Point is, it's a lose lose situation with literally no upside.

Incarnate Ward would beat us maybe 1 out of 6 games and we'd win 5 out of 6 games. But, no matter the outcome, in 6 out of 6 games our RPI drops.
Why play the games at all then? This is a losers mentality and I'm never a "losers mentality" kind of poster.

I'm not a fan of cancelling games. You schedule the game you need to live with it.
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94chem
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 12:03p, 5/17/22
TXAggie2011 said:
Despite the cancellation, Nolan Warren still posted the possible impact of the UIW game on our RPI.

If we win, setting aside all other results, our RPI would drop 7 "points". That's the equivalent of 7/10,000ths or 0.07%.

That's essentially a rounding error in the RPI. Boyd's World doesn't even report RPIs to that many decimal points. The impact of the win would be to drop from 19th to 20th, as Wake Forest would move ahead of us by 1 "point."

To put the impact of the UIW game on our RPI in perspective, if Mississippi State beats North Alabama at home tonight, our RPI will increase by 3 points and we would move back ahead of Wake Forest, setting everything else aside.


Not to say the impact is exactly 0, not to say we shouldn't have cancelled the game (both teams both have other good reasons not to play it), but the hubbub about RPI it has caused seems disproportionate to what would have actually happened.

Carry on.

Yet on at least one occasion the committee went straight down the RPI list and picked every at-large team in order.

Remember, the RPI can only be used when it works AGAINST A&M, and millionths of a point count.

My favorite was 2015 when we had a 5 RPI, went undefeated in OOC, and didn't get a national seed.
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Pops81
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In reply to EMY92 • 12:03p, 5/17/22
AG
EMY92 said:
I think the bigger issue is our lack of pitching depth. We are fighting to win the SECW, we don't have arms to burn on Tuesday when some may be needed on Thursday.
Absolutely this. Save arms for games that matter.
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trouble
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12:12p, 5/17/22
AG
Does it matter? We don't usually have a midweek game this late anyway.

It only hurts both teams so there's no reason to play it.
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threeanout
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 12:15p, 5/17/22
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
Despite the cancellation, Nolan Warren still posted the possible impact of the UIW game on our RPI.

If we win, setting aside all other results, our RPI would drop 7 "points". That's the equivalent of 7/10,000ths or 0.07%.

That's essentially a rounding error in the RPI. Boyd's World doesn't even report RPIs to that many decimal points. The impact of the win would be to drop from 19th to 20th, as Wake Forest would move ahead of us by 1 "point."

To put the impact of the UIW game on our RPI in perspective, if Mississippi State beats North Alabama at home tonight, our RPI will increase by 3 points and we would move back ahead of Wake Forest, setting everything else aside.


Not to say the impact is exactly 0, not to say we shouldn't have cancelled the game (both teams both have other good reasons not to play it), but the hubbub about RPI it has caused seems disproportionate to what would have actually happened.

Carry on.

That 0.0007 result of a win would drop us three spots to # 21.

18. Texas 0.5827
18. Texas A&M 0.5827
20. Wake Forest 0.5821
20. Southern Miss 0.5821
20. Clemson 0.5821
21. North Carolina 0.5814
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jaxisback
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12:15p, 5/17/22
If our pitching was rolling like a freight train, then OK. I think we gave up another opportunity to try and inject some confidence into some pitchers that we're going to badly need come regionals.

I'm not worried about arm fatigue or whether we lose 8/10ths of an RPI point, I'm worried about finding more than three or four arms that are confident they can string together six outs
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to threeanout • 12:34p, 5/17/22
AG
threeanout said:
TXAggie2011 said:
Despite the cancellation, Nolan Warren still posted the possible impact of the UIW game on our RPI.

If we win, setting aside all other results, our RPI would drop 7 "points". That's the equivalent of 7/10,000ths or 0.07%.

That's essentially a rounding error in the RPI. Boyd's World doesn't even report RPIs to that many decimal points. The impact of the win would be to drop from 19th to 20th, as Wake Forest would move ahead of us by 1 "point."

To put the impact of the UIW game on our RPI in perspective, if Mississippi State beats North Alabama at home tonight, our RPI will increase by 3 points and we would move back ahead of Wake Forest, setting everything else aside.


Not to say the impact is exactly 0, not to say we shouldn't have cancelled the game (both teams both have other good reasons not to play it), but the hubbub about RPI it has caused seems disproportionate to what would have actually happened.

Carry on.
That 0.0007 result of a win would drop us three spots to # 21.

18. Texas 0.5827
18. Texas A&M 0.5827
20. Wake Forest 0.5821
20. Southern Miss 0.5821
20. Clemson 0.5821
21. North Carolina 0.5814
Its rounding errors, essentially. Warren Nolan just made an adjustment and has us 0.0001 above Texas now.

Again, I know its not literally a zero impact but in the scheme of things, its essentially zero. Heck, a Fordham win tonight would raise our RPI 4.2 points.
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TAM85
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12:38p, 5/17/22
We don't need to drop three slots in RPI. The committee simply needs to put more weight on other factors, such as head to head where the teams are in the same RPI neighborhood.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to threeanout • 12:43p, 5/17/22
AG
#16 Florida plays #17 Florida State tonight. #15 Virginia was scheduled to play #284 Mount Saint Mary's.

Assuming a UVa win, if you don't think you should be able to fall in the RPI ratings for beating a bad team, you're prepared to tell the winner of Florida/Florida State that they shouldn't be able to move past Virginia tonight because Virginia happened to beat a really bad team on the same night?

At the same time, would you say now that because Virginia cancelled their game, Florida and Florida State should be able to jump them?
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AggieKeith15
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 12:44p, 5/17/22
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
threeanout said:
TXAggie2011 said:
Despite the cancellation, Nolan Warren still posted the possible impact of the UIW game on our RPI.

If we win, setting aside all other results, our RPI would drop 7 "points". That's the equivalent of 7/10,000ths or 0.07%.

That's essentially a rounding error in the RPI. Boyd's World doesn't even report RPIs to that many decimal points. The impact of the win would be to drop from 19th to 20th, as Wake Forest would move ahead of us by 1 "point."

To put the impact of the UIW game on our RPI in perspective, if Mississippi State beats North Alabama at home tonight, our RPI will increase by 3 points and we would move back ahead of Wake Forest, setting everything else aside.


Not to say the impact is exactly 0, not to say we shouldn't have cancelled the game (both teams both have other good reasons not to play it), but the hubbub about RPI it has caused seems disproportionate to what would have actually happened.

Carry on.
That 0.0007 result of a win would drop us three spots to # 21.

18. Texas 0.5827
18. Texas A&M 0.5827
20. Wake Forest 0.5821
20. Southern Miss 0.5821
20. Clemson 0.5821
21. North Carolina 0.5814
Its rounding errors, essentially. Warren Nolan just made an adjustment and has us 0.0001 above Texas now.


Which is why RPI should not be heavily considered when picking hosts. At best it should be used to segment teams and allow for other parts of a team's resume to be considered. Instead every year the committee goes right down the rankings and assigns hosts accordingly.

There is too much riding on it to allow for rounding errors.
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threeanout
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 12:46p, 5/17/22
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
threeanout said:
TXAggie2011 said:
Despite the cancellation, Nolan Warren still posted the possible impact of the UIW game on our RPI.

If we win, setting aside all other results, our RPI would drop 7 "points". That's the equivalent of 7/10,000ths or 0.07%.

That's essentially a rounding error in the RPI. Boyd's World doesn't even report RPIs to that many decimal points. The impact of the win would be to drop from 19th to 20th, as Wake Forest would move ahead of us by 1 "point."

To put the impact of the UIW game on our RPI in perspective, if Mississippi State beats North Alabama at home tonight, our RPI will increase by 3 points and we would move back ahead of Wake Forest, setting everything else aside.


Not to say the impact is exactly 0, not to say we shouldn't have cancelled the game (both teams both have other good reasons not to play it), but the hubbub about RPI it has caused seems disproportionate to what would have actually happened.

Carry on.
That 0.0007 result of a win would drop us three spots to # 21.

18. Texas 0.5827
18. Texas A&M 0.5827
20. Wake Forest 0.5821
20. Southern Miss 0.5821
20. Clemson 0.5821
21. North Carolina 0.5814
Its rounding errors, essentially. Warren Nolan just made an adjustment and has us 0.0001 above Texas now.

Again, I know its not literally a zero impact but in the scheme of things, its essentially zero. Heck, a Fordham win tonight would raise our RPI 4.2 points.
That's how tightly bunched everything is right now and why all the wild swings. Reason why we had to sweep State in order to keep our chances of hosting alive.

Stanford is at #13 and 0.0053 (or 53 points) ahead of us. They play our old friends at Santa Clara today. A Bronco win would give us 3.1 points and drop Stanford another 34 points. Sure would help us close the gap on those guys.
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threeanout
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 12:53p, 5/17/22
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
#16 Florida plays #17 Florida State tonight. #15 Virginia was scheduled to play #284 Mount Saint Mary's.

Assuming a UVa win, if you don't think you should be able to fall in the RPI ratings for beating a bad team, you're prepared to tell the winner of Florida/Florida State that they shouldn't be able to move past Virginia tonight because Virginia happened to beat a really bad team on the same night?

At the same time, would you say now that because Virginia cancelled their game, Florida and Florida State should be able to jump them?
Why don't you answer your own question. I think RPI is a flawed calculation and shouldn't be used so heavily by the committee.

We do need every SEC team to win tonight as we battle the ACC for host spots.
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PFlat
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In reply to 94chem • 1:03p, 5/17/22
AG
94chem said:
TXAggie2011 said:
Despite the cancellation, Nolan Warren still posted the possible impact of the UIW game on our RPI.

If we win, setting aside all other results, our RPI would drop 7 "points". That's the equivalent of 7/10,000ths or 0.07%.

That's essentially a rounding error in the RPI. Boyd's World doesn't even report RPIs to that many decimal points. The impact of the win would be to drop from 19th to 20th, as Wake Forest would move ahead of us by 1 "point."

To put the impact of the UIW game on our RPI in perspective, if Mississippi State beats North Alabama at home tonight, our RPI will increase by 3 points and we would move back ahead of Wake Forest, setting everything else aside.


Not to say the impact is exactly 0, not to say we shouldn't have cancelled the game (both teams both have other good reasons not to play it), but the hubbub about RPI it has caused seems disproportionate to what would have actually happened.

Carry on.

Yet on at least one occasion the committee went straight down the RPI list and picked every at-large team in order.

Remember, the RPI can only be used when it works AGAINST A&M, and millionths of a point count.

My favorite was 2015 when we had a 5 RPI, went undefeated in OOC, and didn't get a national seed.
this.
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Aggies2009
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In reply to 94chem • 1:05p, 5/17/22
AG
94chem said:


My favorite was 2015 when we had a 5 RPI, went undefeated in OOC, and didn't get a national seed.
Not only that, our AD was on the selection committee. Unfortunately for us, his daughter was a student at TCU and he showed up to the games wearing purple.
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TheAngelFlight
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In reply to threeanout • 1:19p, 5/17/22
threeanout said:
TXAggie2011 said:
#16 Florida plays #17 Florida State tonight. #15 Virginia was scheduled to play #284 Mount Saint Mary's.

Assuming a UVa win, if you don't think you should be able to fall in the RPI ratings for beating a bad team, you're prepared to tell the winner of Florida/Florida State that they shouldn't be able to move past Virginia tonight because Virginia happened to beat a really bad team on the same night?

At the same time, would you say now that because Virginia cancelled their game, Florida and Florida State should be able to jump them?
Why don't you answer your own question. I think RPI is a flawed calculation and shouldn't be used so heavily by the committee.

We do need every SEC team to win tonight as we battle the ACC for host spots.
Folks have been all over this board saying no team should be able to fall in the RPI when they beat a bad team, no matter how bad the team is. Yet nobody can seem to answer the question just asked by the poster


And here we have a thread complaining about A&M not getting a national seed when their RPI was 6 and simultaneously complaining that they depend on the RPI too much
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TheAngelFlight
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In reply to threeanout • 1:22p, 5/17/22
Quote:
Stanford is at #13 and 0.0053 (or 53 points) ahead of us. They play our old friends at Santa Clara today. A Bronco win would give us 3.1 points and drop Stanford another 34 points. Sure would help us close the gap on those guys.
I think this is the point. A drop of 7 points is an incredibly miniscule input into the formula yet folks want to blow up the whole formula to institute some weird, odd, untenable system largely because a game was mutually cancelled
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to threeanout • 1:37p, 5/17/22
AG
threeanout said:
TXAggie2011 said:
#16 Florida plays #17 Florida State tonight. #15 Virginia was scheduled to play #284 Mount Saint Mary's.

Assuming a UVa win, if you don't think you should be able to fall in the RPI ratings for beating a bad team, you're prepared to tell the winner of Florida/Florida State that they shouldn't be able to move past Virginia tonight because Virginia happened to beat a really bad team on the same night?

At the same time, would you say now that because Virginia cancelled their game, Florida and Florida State should be able to jump them?
Why don't you answer your own question. I think RPI is a flawed calculation and shouldn't be used so heavily by the committee.

We do need every SEC team to win tonight as we battle the ACC for host spots.
Yeah, I've not been running around saying you should never fall for beating a bad team. There's been plenty of that. The question was for them.

I'll ask it this way: should Clemson be able to surpass the Texas Longhorns if Clemson beats #37 Coastal Carolina tonight on the road and the Longhorns beat #102 Sam Houston State tonight at home?
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94chem
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2:01p, 5/17/22
How should I know? They've played 100 other games. If either one of them wants to play the jv softball team at the middle school tonight, who cares? It shouldn't hurt their resume.
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nereus
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2:04p, 5/17/22
AG
I think posters (in general) are fine with a team passing another team because that team had a quality win when the other team didn't. That team did something to pass them, so that is okay. The issue is falling when another team didn't do anything.

At the end of the day, winning a Tuesday game against IW is harder than not playing them in the first place. I think what people are upset with is that the RPI incentive for winning a game against IW is less than the incentive for not playing the game all together. This is why teams are dropping these games.

I don't agree with a lot of these other solutions other people have proposed to fix RPI, but I completely understand why they are upset about this.
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threeanout
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 2:04p, 5/17/22
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
threeanout said:
TXAggie2011 said:
#16 Florida plays #17 Florida State tonight. #15 Virginia was scheduled to play #284 Mount Saint Mary's.

Assuming a UVa win, if you don't think you should be able to fall in the RPI ratings for beating a bad team, you're prepared to tell the winner of Florida/Florida State that they shouldn't be able to move past Virginia tonight because Virginia happened to beat a really bad team on the same night?

At the same time, would you say now that because Virginia cancelled their game, Florida and Florida State should be able to jump them?
Why don't you answer your own question. I think RPI is a flawed calculation and shouldn't be used so heavily by the committee.

We do need every SEC team to win tonight as we battle the ACC for host spots.
Yeah, I've not been running around saying you should never fall for beating a bad team. There's been plenty of that. The question was for them.

I'll ask it this way: should Clemson be able to surpass the Texas Longhorns if Clemson beats #37 Coastal Carolina tonight on the road and the Longhorns beat #102 Sam Houston State tonight at home?


I think the University of Moscow should be able to surpass the horns. Yes, you would think a road win against Coastal would and should vault Clemson ahead of the horns beating Sam at home.

Now let me ask you a question. We reached a high RPI ranking of 10 a couple of weeks ago (maybe it was 12). We have gone 6-1 (5-1 against SEC) teams and fallen back almost 8 slots. Is that a fair representation of how we are playing?
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TAM85
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2:16p, 5/17/22
No it's not.
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LatinAggie1997
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In reply to t - cam • 2:16p, 5/17/22
AG
t - cam said:
TexasLeaguer said:
It's not just about what happens if you win - we get docked in RPI. It's also about if we lose - we get docked in RPI. Point is, it's a lose lose situation with literally no upside.

Incarnate Ward would beat us maybe 1 out of 6 games and we'd win 5 out of 6 games. But, no matter the outcome, in 6 out of 6 games our RPI drops.


Why play the games at all then? This is a losers mentality and I'm never a "losers mentality" kind of poster.

I'm not a fan of cancelling games. You schedule the game you need to live with it.


OR

It's a system so flawed that it actually punishees those with your mentality. When that system is heavily relied upon you have to make decisions to protect yourself.

Perhaps a better method of weighing wins in a positive manner would be beneficial and help avoid this issue. Rank "bad" wins on a tier system.
RPI teams 1-75(same), 76-150(1pt), 150-200(+.5pt), 200+(+.25pt) etc.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to threeanout • 2:16p, 5/17/22
AG
Quote:
I think the University of Moscow should be able to surpass the horns. Yes, you would think a road win against Coastal would and should vault Clemson ahead of the horns beating Sam at home.

Now let me ask you a question. We reached a high RPI ranking of 10 a couple of weeks ago (maybe it was 12). We have gone 6-1 (5-1 against SEC) teams and fallen back almost 8 slots. Is that a fair representation of how we are playing?
We played the worst and one of the worst teams in the SEC, plus the worst team UT-Arlington has had in a long time...so, you would think there's been plenty opportunity for other teams to move above us.
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t - cam
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In reply to LatinAggie1997 • 2:20p, 5/17/22
AG
LatinAggie1997 said:
t - cam said:
TexasLeaguer said:
It's not just about what happens if you win - we get docked in RPI. It's also about if we lose - we get docked in RPI. Point is, it's a lose lose situation with literally no upside.

Incarnate Ward would beat us maybe 1 out of 6 games and we'd win 5 out of 6 games. But, no matter the outcome, in 6 out of 6 games our RPI drops.


Why play the games at all then? This is a losers mentality and I'm never a "losers mentality" kind of poster.

I'm not a fan of cancelling games. You schedule the game you need to live with it.


OR

It's a system so flawed that it actually punishees those with your mentality. When that system is heavily relied upon you have to make decisions to protect yourself.
Why didn't we cancel the games earlier in the year? Those are the ones that actually hurting our team.
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LatinAggie1997
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In reply to t - cam • 2:23p, 5/17/22
AG
My answer - we weren't in a position to have the system negatively affect our trajectory at that point. Decisions are made in real time and aren't perfect. The system and it's importance should NOT be an obstacle nor an anchor when trying to finish a long swim.
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TheAngelFlight
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2:27p, 5/17/22
Quote:
I think posters (in general) are fine with a team passing another team because that team had a quality win when the other team didn't. That team did something to pass them, so that is okay. The issue is falling when another team didn't do anything.
The other team that didn't happen to play on the same day will probably play a game on a day you didn't happen to play. Stuff tends to even out at the end of the day

RPI shouldn't depend in any way on what day of the week you happened to have your game scheduled
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nereus
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In reply to TheAngelFlight • 2:35p, 5/17/22
AG
TheAngelFlight said:
Quote:
I think posters (in general) are fine with a team passing another team because that team had a quality win when the other team didn't. That team did something to pass them, so that is okay. The issue is falling when another team didn't do anything.
The other team that didn't happen to play on the same day will probably play a game on a day you didn't happen to play. Stuff tends to even out at the end of the day
Except it doesn't really even out since teams aren't rescheduling these games they are cancelling. That is the whole reason for this thread is teams have figured out that they can cancel games and do better in RPI by not playing that day and not making it up on a different day either. If everyone is actually playing the same number of games, yeah, it mostly evens out over the season. But in college baseball we don't all play the same number of games.
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TheAngelFlight
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2:41p, 5/17/22
Schedule better teams. Problem solved. A major policy point of the RPI is to incentive teams to play tougher schedules
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nereus
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In reply to TheAngelFlight • 2:53p, 5/17/22
AG
TheAngelFlight said:
Schedule better teams. Problem solved. A major policy point of the RPI is to incentive teams to play tougher schedules
So, explain to me how playing one less game in the season is a tougher schedule than playing the same exact schedule PLUS one additional game (even if that additional game is against a bad team). You are arguing that a major policy point of the RPI is to incentivize teams to play tougher schedules but here is a situation where teams are actually choosing to play an easier schedule (by canceling a game) because RPI is incentivizing them to do it.
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TXAggie2011
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2:54p, 5/17/22
AG
RPI is an average. It's not really an additive/subtractive. By making any win such that it can't lower your average, you're creating a system that awards whoever starts the season the best. Schedule such to get the average up best you can and then to play all the garbage you can manage...money
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TheAngelFlight
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In reply to nereus • 2:59p, 5/17/22
nereus said:
TheAngelFlight said:
Schedule better teams. Problem solved. A major policy point of the RPI is to incentive teams to play tougher schedules
So, explain to me how playing one less game in the season is a tougher schedule than playing the same exact schedule PLUS one additional game (even if that additional game is against a bad team). You are arguing that a major policy point of the RPI is to incentivize teams to play tougher schedules but here is a situation where teams are actually choosing to play an easier schedule (by canceling a game) because RPI is incentivizing them to do it.
The teams that go out and beat a decent or better team tonight will be better off than both the team that didn't play a game and the team that beat a less than decent team
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