#6

7,924 Views | 61 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Heartstrong Sleep
Texags Meltdown
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AG
in the latest D1 rankings
Keegan99
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"Oh no." -followers of 2007 Aggie Basketball
Luke The Drifter
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Yep…I'm really hoping we are 5 or 7 this week.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
24601
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I'm guessing not too much movement here - #8 jumping Louisville and ok state. But still in great position!

Maryland might even get the big 10 bump to jump ahead of us, but that's fine.
amercer
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Keegan99 said:

"Oh no." -followers of 2007 Aggie Basketball
EMY92
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Okie St. had a tough week going 0-4. Not good for the 3# ranked team.
Houstonag
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No. 4 in Baseball America
Luke The Drifter
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Keegan99 said:

"Oh no." -followers of 2007 Aggie Basketball


Craziest thing about this statement is that it was FIFTEEN years ago. How are the rest of you folks getting so old while I'm staying so young?
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
aggiebrad94
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Luke The Drifter said:

Keegan99 said:

"Oh no." -followers of 2007 Aggie Basketball


Craziest thing about this statement is that it was FIFTEEN years ago. How are the rest of you folks getting so old while I'm staying so young?

Constantly hitting refresh to get your game updates takes its toll.
Noctilucent
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It's great to see the Ags ranked so high in the polls again! It would be a nice change going deep into the SEC tournament then hosting a regional thereafter. Seems like a series win next weekend would be the start for all of the above. Hopefully Schloss has the team focused in like a laser on the Ole Miss series upcoming.
KidDoc
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dabo man
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It's nice to see us highly ranked. However, I read a comment above that we are "in a great position." I just want to make sure you all realize that our rankings in various polls will have zero influence with the committee. We're in a great position in the polls... but that is utterly irrelevant.

As things stand now, we have no path to being a top 8 seed. Maybe (hopefully!) a lot of noise against the right teams in Hoover will change that, but no poll is going to.
BoerneGator
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Quote:

As things stand now, we have no path to being a top 8 seed.
Hyperbole?
gougler08
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dabo man said:

It's nice to see us highly ranked. However, I read a comment above that we are "in a great position." I just want to make sure you all realize that our rankings in various polls will have zero influence with the committee. We're in a great position in the polls... but that is utterly irrelevant.

As things stand now, we have no path to being a top 8 seed. Maybe (hopefully!) a lot of noise against the right teams in Hoover will change that, but no poll is going to.



Wrong, winning the SEC West will most likely do it
powerbelly
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dabo man said:

It's nice to see us highly ranked. However, I read a comment above that we are "in a great position." I just want to make sure you all realize that our rankings in various polls will have zero influence with the committee. We're in a great position in the polls... but that is utterly irrelevant.

As things stand now, we have no path to being a top 8 seed.
Maybe (hopefully!) a lot of noise against the right teams in Hoover will change that, but no poll is going to.

Disagree.
carl spacklers hat
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BoerneGator said:

Quote:

As things stand now, we have no path to being a top 8 seed.
Hyperbole?
I'm guessing the poster is going for the reverse hex here.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
dabo man
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Some of you are choosing to ignore the fact that RPI is the single most important factor in seeding, and that our RPI currently stands at #19.

Now, we're being hampered by bad early season losses, and we've continued to improve as the season has gone on, and the committee will reward that. I believe that if the season were to end today, we would be a host and a top #16 seed (i.e. the #1 seed at our own regional).

However, barring wins against the right teams in Hoover, I don't see top 8 happening. This team is capable of beating anyone (maybe even TN?!?) in Hoover, we'll just have to see what teams we face.

It's just my opinion. I've said it many times, and I'll say it again. This is my favorite group of players since 2010-11.

Also, I don't know how much it will help, but Ole Miss' RPI improved from #56 to #38 over the last week.
powerbelly
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dabo man said:

Some of you are choosing to ignore the fact that RPI is the single most important factor in seeding, and that our RPI currently stands at #19.

Now, we're being hampered by bad early season losses, and we've continued to improve as the season has gone on, and the committee will reward that. I believe that if the season were to end today, we would be a host and a top #16 seed (i.e. the #1 seed at our own regional).

However, barring wins against the right teams in Hoover, I don't see top 8 happening. This team is capable of beating anyone (maybe even TN?!?) in Hoover, we'll just have to see what teams we face.

It's just my opinion. I've said it many times, and I'll say it again. This is my favorite group of players since 2010-11.

Also, I don't know how much it will help, but Ole Miss' RPI improved from #56 to #38 over the last week.
So you do see a path to a top 8 seed.
dabo man
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Quote:

So you do see a path to a top 8 seed.
If we're lucky enough to get scheduled against the right teams and can beat those teams. The first part of it is completely out of our control though.
BoerneGator
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Ignoring may not be the right descriptor, but one could argue that you are ignoring our resume, and the opportunity to finish atop the West, along with doing damage at Hoover, which combined, would eclipse the RPI in a sane atmosphere. I refuse to ignore the obvious, should it come to pass, as many of us have come to expect.

To contend we "have NO path" is an unreasonable stance imho.
powerbelly
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I think you are being overly pessimistic. If we win the west and have a top 16 RPI I think we get a top 8 seed.

To get in the top 16 we need 2 road wins.

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html
dabo man
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Quote:

I think you are being overly pessimistic. If we win the west and have a top 16 RPI I think we get a top 8 seed.
And I think that a lot of you are setting yourselves up for disappointment. I hope that you're right though!!

MEEN Ag 05
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No path to a top 8 RPI - true.

No path to a top 8 seed - false.
powerbelly
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dabo man said:

Quote:

I think you are being overly pessimistic. If we win the west and have a top 16 RPI I think we get a top 8 seed.
And I think that a lot of you are setting yourselves up for disappointment. I hope that you're right though!!


I am not going to be disappointed with a regional host. I was going to be thrilled to finish the season in a regional before the season started, that hasn't changed.
CapCityAg89
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This will be a weird test for ROI this year for sure. I think it's that huge cluster of teams within millipoints of each other. Any normal year, 17-10 in the SEC is easy top 10 RPI.

I totally agree with dabo that ranking services don't play into the committee rankings. BUT (and it's a big one) I think D1 in particular does a very good job of replicating the thought process of the committee and their ranking is a pretty good forecast.

Go 2-1 against OM and I see almost no way we're not a National seed regardless of RPI (which, with the road multiplier will likely end up top 12-15).

Likewise, if we lose that series, I can see D1 dropping us to about 9 or 10 and having our seed end up there too.
AggieKeith15
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I think we have to win the West and finish 12 or better to have any real shot at a National Seed. The good news, is that can probably be accomplished by winning two this weekend and winning two in the tournament.

The easiest path however would be to sweep Ole Miss. Do that and we are a National Seed lock (our RPI would ikely be around 9-10).
TAM85
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RPI is taking a lot of heat right now, and that may result in the committee placing less weight on it this season. We cancelled a game (ICW) and maybe 2 (Sam Houston) because of it. Notre Dame cancelled a whole series (William & Mary). The SEC Network did a segment on it last night and pointed out the problems and anomalies with weighting it heavily.

Cancelling games is bad for the game and bad for smaller programs who look forward to playing Power 5 Programs and playing in SEC and similar parks before big crowds. This should be a concern for any committee members from smaller baseball programs or conferences who likely want the opportunity to play Power 5 teams.

So this year instead of putting most the eggs in the RPI basket the committee may look at teams that are pretty close in RPI (0.01-0.02 apart), and consider head to head results, their conference W/L records, what place they are in within their conference and other factors such as how they have been playing over the last month, etc.
Sq 17
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MEEN Ag 05 said:

No path to a top 8 RPI - true.

No path to a top 8 seed - false.
Has anyone re-worked the math since the UIW game was dropped ?
That game being cancelled raises the ceiling for us
BoerneGator
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Quote:

The easiest path howeever would be to sweep Ole Miss.
Except that's in no way easy (or even likely, given their recent resurgence etc.). Two of three would be huge. Then get a couple more at Hoover…done deal!
W
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perhaps the #1 problem with RPI --- games in February count the same as games in May --- and teams obviously make changes and improvements throughout the season.

that a human committee will notice, but the computers do not
powerbelly
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I think they should modify RPI to drop your 5 lowest RPI opponent games from the scoring. We can't penalize teams from playing regional midweek games that have abysmal RPIs.

HoustonAg2106
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gougler08 said:

dabo man said:

It's nice to see us highly ranked. However, I read a comment above that we are "in a great position." I just want to make sure you all realize that our rankings in various polls will have zero influence with the committee. We're in a great position in the polls... but that is utterly irrelevant.

As things stand now, we have no path to being a top 8 seed. Maybe (hopefully!) a lot of noise against the right teams in Hoover will change that, but no poll is going to.



Wrong, winning the SEC West will most likely do it
Absolutely, winning the West and finishing 2nd in the SEC overall locks up a top 8 seed in my opinion.
Luke The Drifter
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Nationally ranked and RPI #30 Texas State also cancelled - by mutual agreement - an RPI killer game.

https://txstatebobcats.com/news/2022/5/15/tuesdays-baseball-game-against-houston-baptist-canceled.aspx
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
W
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D1 is still doubling and tripling down on Tech at #5 and Arkansas at #7.

with only 2 weeks until selection day...neither would be a regional host based upon their current RPI.

Hogs at #29 and Tech at #33
HoustonAg2106
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Luke The Drifter said:

Nationally ranked and RPI #30 Texas State also cancelled - by mutual agreement - an RPI killer game.

https://txstatebobcats.com/news/2022/5/15/tuesdays-baseball-game-against-houston-baptist-canceled.aspx
LSU is next
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