#6

8,464 Views | 61 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Heartstrong Sleep
AggieKeith15
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AG
BoerneGator said:

Quote:

The easiest path howeever would be to sweep Ole Miss.
Except that's in no way easy (or even likely, given their recent resurgence etc.). Two of three would be huge. Then get a couple more at Hoover…done deal!


True. 'Easiest' was not the correct word.

'Quickest' would be more accurate.
McKelveysCurse
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Bad Poster
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Okay so are we sure the tournament is going to do anything for us in regards to seeding because im pretty sure we thought that about basketball this year and it did nothing…. The obvious bias against a&m leads me to believe we are going to get cheated out of a regional spot
AgEng06
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AG
We will not get cheated out of a regional. Super regional (top-8) is up in the air.
Citizen Reign
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TAM85 said:

Cancelling games is bad for the game and bad for smaller programs who look forward to playing Power 5 Programs and playing in SEC and similar parks before big crowds. This should be a concern for any committee members from smaller baseball programs or conferences who likely want the opportunity to play Power 5 teams.
Agreed. But in this case, it was a mutual decision that each coach felt benefited their team.
"Shotzberger was also not gung ho about his team playing either as Incarnate Word located in San Antonio just played three extra-inning games over the last five days and ends its regular season this weekend against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi with the Southland Conference Tournament set for May 19-22."

TAM85
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Now Ole Miss, TCU and Texas State are cancelling RPI killing games this week. The metric is broken!
AgEng06
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AG
Good. Maybe this will call attention to the issues with the system.
TAM85
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It should, and SEC Network did a segment on it last night. Schloss outright said playing ICW is not good for A&M at this point in the season.

D1 Baseball and, or Baseball America needs to write an article on it this week.
jkag89
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I think it has drawn attention to the over reliance of a single metric by the selection committee to to justify its seeding rather than looking at all the factors. In other words a good tool has become too much of a crutch and coaches are seeing this and are willing to cancel games to help their teams chances. I personally don't like A&M dropping this game, more baseball is "more better" IMO, but understand why Schloss made the decision. I also like he did not mince why he did it, maybe it will force the NCAA be more up front about hosting, seeding and who gets in or is left out of tournament.
HoustonAg2106
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Kendall Rogers brought up an interesting solution to this problem, he said teams should be able to drop a number of their lowest non conference mid week RPI games at the end of the season. Maybe it's dropping the bottom 3 RPI teams on your schedule, maybe it's the bottom 5...but I think that would solve the problem
W
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speaking of Texas State (41-11)...the Sun Belt regular season champions...

are the Bobcats a potential 2-seed in College Station?

their RPI is better than Tech's and TCU's if that is the chief metric
TAM85
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I would like to see a list of the members on the baseball committee with their school and conference affiliation.
I saw articles appointing John Cohen from Mississippi State and Sherard Clinkscales from Indian State University (Missouri Valley Conference), but I don't know who else is in the committee.
powerbelly
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http://web1.ncaa.org/committees/committees_roster.jsp?CommitteeName=1MBA
Luke The Drifter
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powerbelly said:

http://web1.ncaa.org/committees/committees_roster.jsp?CommitteeName=1MBA


It looks like only one committee member will cycle off at the end of this season.

Jeff Altier
Stetson University
ASUN Conference
AUG 2022

So...if I'm reading this correctly...90% of the committee will be back for the 2023 season. We'll see how the committee behaves this year and that should (in theory) give us an idea of how they will behave next year.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
94chem
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W said:

perhaps the #1 problem with RPI --- games in February count the same as games in May --- and teams obviously make changes and improvements throughout the season.

that a human committee will notice, but the computers do not
The #1 problem with the RPI is that you should never be punished for winning a game.
94chem
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HoustonAg2106 said:

Kendall Rogers brought up an interesting solution to this problem, he said teams should be able to drop a number of their lowest non conference mid week RPI games at the end of the season. Maybe it's dropping the bottom 3 RPI teams on your schedule, maybe it's the bottom 5...but I think that would solve the problem
Yeah, I posted this in the basketball thread a couple of months ago. Baseball should only count the top 48 games or so, and basketball should only count the top 28. It's sad that these committees are full of liberal arts majors who can't understand really easy math concepts. If you play an SEC baseball schedule, who cares if you have a 3 game series against Prairie View? That should only hurt if you lose the games. Or if you play a Big 12 basketball schedule, why does it matter if you play a couple of games against Fort Hayes State? Glad to see Kendall was reading my posts on the basketball board.

The RPI rewards teams who play a ton of slightly above average teams in OOC play.
94chem
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First, get rid of the home/road multipliers (we'll use them in a minute). Next, calculate the RPI as it was done until ~2005 (25% your winning percentage, 50% your opponent WP, and 25% opponents' opponents).

EXAMPLE ONLY:

Now, for every win you get below 100, you get nothing. For every loss below 150, you lose 1 point (don't want to penalize teams in decent conferences who don't sweep #125, for example). For every win above 100, you get 2 points, and for every loss you lose nothing.

For a 75 - 100 win, add a point.

For a 50 - 75 win, add another point.

25 - 50, add a point.

11 - 25, add a point.

0 - 10, add a point.

Separate all points into home and road. Multiply home by 0.8, and road by 1.2.

Add up all the points.

Now, test the calculations against the NCAA tournament field for the past ~10 years. Adjust the point totals and multipliers until it makes sense. Once you've got a formula that replicates the field fairly well, use it. You'll never have the problem of scheduling again. Zero risk for playing tough Tuesday games, zero punishment for playing easy ones. Northern teams will come down south in droves because they need the points, etc.

Now, you'll get some really good teams that may overschedule, wind up 28-28, etc. and their RPI may be around 100. This will hurt the point totals of the teams that played them. But the good news for that .500 team is that if they have 5 wins over top 10 teams, they might make the tournament. I have no problem with that, as long as the AQ system remains.
TXAggie2011
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AG
I think incorporating RPI itself into the RPI is a pretty bad idea.

First, you run the risk of breaking the computer because if its dynamic, you could run never ending iterations.

If its static, are you telling me you think Texas Tech should get bonus points for happening to win 3 games vs Kent State when Kent State was #11? (They're #185 now.)
94chem
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You do it at the end of the season when all the games have been played, yo.
The Debt
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HoustonAg2106 said:

Kendall Rogers brought up an interesting solution to this problem, he said teams should be able to drop a number of their lowest non conference mid week RPI games at the end of the season. Maybe it's dropping the bottom 3 RPI teams on your schedule, maybe it's the bottom 5...but I think that would solve the problem


*addendum* you can only drop Ws. Ls you have to keep.
TXAggie2011
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AG
Quote:

Next, calculate the RPI as it was done until ~2005 (25% your winning percentage, 50% your opponent WP, and 25% opponents' opponents).
They still use this formula.

A&M would still have no incentive to play Incarnate Word tomorrow even if bonus points are given out at the end of the year for beating good teams
94chem
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TXAggie2011 said:

Quote:

Next, calculate the RPI as it was done until ~2005 (25% your winning percentage, 50% your opponent WP, and 25% opponents' opponents).
They still use this formula.

A&M would still have no incentive to play Incarnate Word tomorrow even if bonus points are given out at the end of the year for beating good teams
Correct, but they would have no excuse not to, either. The game would be played as a matter of integrity.

The RPI currently has a home/road multiplier, I believe.
85AustinAg
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It has nothing to do with integrity. The Incarnate Word coach agreed to it. The Southland Conference Tournament starts Thursday. Why would they want to waste pitching in a meaningless game when their only shot at the post season is to win their conference tournament.
HoustonAg2106
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The Debt said:

HoustonAg2106 said:

Kendall Rogers brought up an interesting solution to this problem, he said teams should be able to drop a number of their lowest non conference mid week RPI games at the end of the season. Maybe it's dropping the bottom 3 RPI teams on your schedule, maybe it's the bottom 5...but I think that would solve the problem


*addendum* you can only drop Ws. Ls you have to keep.
Definitely, I should have said lowest RPI midweek wins.
94chem
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85AustinAg said:

It has nothing to do with integrity. The Incarnate Word coach agreed to it. The Southland Conference Tournament starts Thursday. Why would they want to waste pitching in a meaningless game when their only shot at the post season is to win their conference tournament.
Sure, fine. But you're missing the point. A&M cancelled a series with Pepperdine in 1994 because we didn't qualify for the SWC tourney, so there was no reason to play the 3 game tune-up. Stuff like that will always happen.
West Point Aggie
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AG
LOL that people are still talking about this pointless canceled game…move on…ole piss is next!
Let’s Go Brandon!
Heartstrong Sleep
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