SEC Tourney Seeding

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Luke The Drifter
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I think I have this accurate, but let me know if I've made a mistake. Anyway, heading into the final weekend of SEC play, this is how the bracket in Hoover would look.

1. Tennessee (clinched)
2. Texas A&M
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
T5. Vanderbilt
T5. LSU
7. Georgia
T8. Ole Miss
T8. Florida
10. South Carolina
11. Alabama
12. Kentucky
---------------------------------------------
13. Mississippi State
14. Missouri


A few notes:

  • Vandy, LSU, and Georgia are tied with 14-13 records. However, UGA lost the series to both LSU and Vandy, so I have them slotted behind the other two.
  • LSU plays at Vanderbilt this weekend, so there is a lot on the line in Nashville.
  • Ole Miss and Florida did not play this year, so I'm not sure how to break that tie for 8th.
  • The top 4 seeds get a bye to the double-elimination round.
  • Our Aggies have clinched no worse than the 4th seed. UGA, Vandy, and LSU could each get to 17 wins to tie us, but we own the tiebreaker over all 3 of those teams. No one else can catch us in the standings. Long story short, A&M will either be seeded 2, 3, or 4 in Hoover.

Here's the schedule for the final weekend of the regular season...all games scheduled for Thursday-Friday-Saturday:

  • Missouri at Georgia
  • South Carolina at Florida
  • Tennessee at Mississippi State
  • Auburn at Kentucky
  • Arkansas at Alabama
  • LSU at Vanderbilt
  • Texas A&M at Ole Miss

Current RPIs for each of the SEC teams:

1. Tennessee
3. Vanderbilt
4. Auburn
7. Georgia
15. Florida
20. Texas A&M
29. Arkansas
37. LSU
38. Ole Miss
53. Alabama
60. Kentucky
63. Missouri
69. South Carolina
105. Mississippi State

And finally, the current ELO ratings for each SEC team. I'll be honest...I don't know what the ELO is, but some seem to think it's important. Plus, the Ags look really, really good in this rating system.

1. Tennessee
3. Texas A&M
5. Auburn
7. Arkansas
8. Vanderbilt
11. Ole Miss
14. Florida
18. Georgia
20. LSU
40. South Carolina
51. Kentucky
55. Alabama
65. Missouri
77. Mississippi State

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
aginlakeway
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Awesome post.
aeroag14
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AG
Oof. Georgia as the 7 to our 2 is a tough draw. Freaking sec baseball
Outlaw0206
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Good news is that we don't play Tuesday and it will be double elimination from Wed on, as usual.

Here are some possibilities:

Wednesday, May 25
9:30 a.m.
Game 5: No. 3 seed vs. Winner of Game 1

TBD
Game 6: No. 2 seed vs. Winner of Game 2


4:30 p.m.
Game 7: No. 1 seed vs. Winner of Game 3

TBD
Game 8: No. 4 seed vs. Winner of Game 4
threeanout
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Really would like to be the # 4 seed and a shot at UT.
ColleyvilleAg06
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threeanout said:

Really would like to be the # 4 seed and a shot at UT.


I would rather get our shot at Tennessee in the championship game since if we are the 4 seed it means we lost our series to ole miss
LincolnBorglum79
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Win the SEC West. That has to result in a top 8 seed.
falcon09
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I read the rules a little different for right now. Since Vandy and LSU haven't played each other, you can't use the 3 teams as common opponents (yet). You start with the #1 seed and compare the teams records against teams all 3 have played. LSU didn't play Tennessee, so they don't count. All 3 went 1-2 against A&M. You wind up at #8 Florida. Georgia went 3-0, Vandy and LSU both went 2-1. Georgia gets the #5 seed.

Since LSU and Vandy don't yet have head-to-head, you apply a similar routine to those 2. Vandy went 2-1 against #3 Arkansas while LSU got swept. Vandy in the #6 seed, LSU #7.

I actually had to apply tie-breakers to Florida/Ole Miss before I could complete the UGA/Vandy/LSU situation. Florida gets #8 because of a series win over Arkansas.

1. Tennessee (clinched)
2. Texas A&M (clinched bye)
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. Georgia
6. Vanderbilt
7. LSU
8. Florida
9. Ole Miss
10. South Carolina
11. Alabama
12. Kentucky
---------------------------------------------
13. Mississippi State
14. Missouri
Aggieland Proud
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Question concerning RPI. If we are #2 in the SEC but #20 in RPI ranking with 5 SEC teams above us with higher RPI, is that only indicative of our non-conference schedule being not as difficult?

If that is the case, I would argue the SEC ranking more than offsets RPI. Scheduling would require a true crystal ball to know how the other team will actually compete. Teams assumed to be really good, may not be as good as expected. Look to that little college just to the west (tu) as an example.

I think stat nerds get a little too wrapped up in all this when they need to just look at what is happening on the field.
Luke The Drifter
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I'm sure you are 100% accurate with your assessment. I didn't take the time to read up on 3-way tiebreakers and such. I made general assumptions and guesses. Either way, I like the position the Aggies are in - mainly that we've clinched a top 4 seed.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
The Debt
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ELO is the expected outcome of head to head competitions.

"If everyone played everyone here is how a computer would see D1 playing out." It flattens everything out and looks at the data objectively.
threeanout
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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

threeanout said:

Really would like to be the # 4 seed and a shot at UT.


I would rather get our shot at Tennessee in the championship game since if we are the 4 seed it means we lost our series to ole miss
True, and I didn't think of that. I retract the previous statement.
threeanout
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Aggieland Proud said:

Question concerning RPI. If we are #2 in the SEC but #20 in RPI ranking with 5 SEC teams above us with higher RPI, is that only indicative of our non-conference schedule being not as difficult?

If that is the case, I would argue the SEC ranking more than offsets RPI. Scheduling would require a true crystal ball to know how the other team will actually compete. Teams assumed to be really good, may not be as good as expected. Look to that little college just to the west (tu) as an example.

I think stat nerds get a little too wrapped up in all this when they need to just look at what is happening on the field.

I certainly don't have all the answers and we did have a few ugly non-conference losses, but we also played a "weak" SEC schedule. Meaning, we didn't play UT, and every SEC team ranked above us (RPI) did play them. The horns have a win off of the real UT at a neutral site which boosts their RPI. Their 45-7 record is beneficial to anyone who plays them from an RPI perspective.

We also just played the SEC team with the worst record hence the reason we got very little if any RPI boost from that sweep. However, every team we played this year benefited from us going 3-0 over the weekend.

The committee for whatever reasons seems obsessed with RPI. I think it needs tweaking. If we were to play IW tomorrow it would have pinged our RPI by a few notches with a win. However, that win would benefit every team we played this year....which doesn't make sense to me.

Just noticed that the ACC is now the # 1 ranked RPI conference. When did that happen?

Luke The Drifter
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Not much to update on this thread after tonight's games. With Auburn-Kentucky rained out, it gets tougher to figure when everyone doesn't have the same number of games played. Maybe after the Friday games we can make a little more sense of what everyone's tourney seed will be.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
CypressAg09
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I think we've locked up at least the 3rd seed.
W
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Auburn has to sweep Kentucky to have a shot at the #2 or #3 seed --- since A&M and Arkansas won tonight
Basketball and Chain
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CypressAg09 said:

I think we've locked up at least the 3rd seed.

Need 1 more win or 1 Auburn loss to clinch top 3. Auburn can still get to 18-11 with a sweep.
Baron de Bastrop
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We've now locked up a top 4 seed which means we get one of the 4 byes. That's a big deal. Everything else in seeding is gravy.
aginlakeway
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Baron de Bastrop said:

We've now locked up a top 4 seed which means we get one of the 4 byes. That's a big deal. Everything else in seeding is gravy.


We had that locked up before this weekend.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
Luke The Drifter
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OK...here are the seedings heading into the Friday games. Recall Auburn-Kentucky was rained out last night and they will play two today. Remember also that Auburn and Alabama had a game declared a no contest due to weather delays and travel schedules. AU and Bama will only play 29 conference games.


1. Tennessee - clinched #1 seed
2. Texas A&M - clinched top 4
3. Arkansas - clinched top 4
4. Auburn
5. LSU
6. Vanderbilt - by virtue of 2-1 series win over UF
7. Florida
8. Georgia - by virtue of losing series to both Vandy and UF
9. Ole Miss
10 South Carolina
T11. Kentucky/Alabama - currently tied, but did not play each other this season
T11. Kentucky/Alabama
--------------------------------------------------------
13. Mississippi State - by virtue of 2-1 series win over Mizzou
14. Missouri


Friday morning RPI of each SEC team:

1. Tennessee
3. Vanderbilt
4. Auburn
11. Georgia
13. Florida
15. Texas A&M
27. Arkansas
30. LSU
39. Ole Miss
53. Alabama
55. Missouri
58. Kentucky
75. South Carolina
107. Mississippi State


And the Friday morning ELO:

1. Tennessee
2. Texas A&M
4. Auburn
7. Arkansas
9. Florida
10. Vanderbilt
14. LSU
15. Ole Miss
24. Georgia
49. Kentucky
50. South Carolina
53. Missouri
57. Alabama
79. Mississippi State

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Eso si, Que es
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It feels like the #7 seed will be the loser of the LSU/Vandy series this weekend. I like the 2 seed if we could hold on to it.

Great posts Luke.
Luke The Drifter
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I believe the top 10 seeds have all clinched a spot in Hoover. Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Missouri are competing this weekend for the 11th and 12th seeds.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
RED AG 98
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Luke The Drifter said:

Recall Auburn-Kentucky was rained out last night and they will play two today.
Not a travel day so presumably these are both 9, correct?
Luke The Drifter
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Yes, you are correct...unless weather becomes a factor again today.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
CypressAg09
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Auburn drops game one of the double header, now we've locked up a top 3 seed!
Luke The Drifter
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OK...the regular season is done. Here's what I've got...feel free to point out any errors.

1. Tennessee
2. Texas A&M
3. Arkansas
4. LSU
- - - - - - - - - - - -
5. Auburn
6. Georgia
7. Florida
T8. Vanderbilt
T8. Ole Miss
10. South Carolina
11. Alabama
12. Kentucky
--------------------
13. Missouri
14. Mississippi

Vandy and Ole Miss have identical records but did not play each other in the regular season. I'm too lazy to look up how to break that tie.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
pdg88
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https://www.secsports.com/article/11093941/sec-baseball-tournament-tiebreakers

Looks like it goes to the win-loss record versus common opponents, starting with the number 1 seed and going down the list until the tie is broken.

So, Vandy should be the 8 seed and Ole Miss the 9 seed.

1. Tennessee - Both teams went 0-3
2. Texas A&M - Both Teams went 1-2
3. Arkansas - Vandy went 2-1, Ole Miss went 1-2
Sq 17
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LincolnBorglum79 said:

Win the SEC West. That has to result in a top 8 seed.
19 conference wins & win the SEC west
pdg88
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http://a.espncdn.com/sec/baseball/2022/SEC%20Baseball%20Tournament%20Bracket.pdf

Here's the bracket.
RED AG 98
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Luke The Drifter said:

Vandy and Ole Miss have identical records but did not play each other in the regular season. I'm too lazy to look up how to break that tie.
It is not straightforward at all in the case of non-divisional opponents that did not played each other (link):




W
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I like the Ags' side of the bracket
hunter2012
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Sq 17
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I presume that is official and final
Fat Black Swan
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No way that Tennessee game gets started at 4:30.
trouble
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SEC tweeted it
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