We have an RPI Problem

11,977 Views | 129 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by RED AG 98
Farmer1906
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After winning the series vs South Carolina, we fell from 12th to 24th.

Our remaining games are against 102 Mississippi St, 194 Incarnate Word, & @ 56 Ole Miss.

According to the RPI Needs Report, we can no longer finish in the top 8. We need 6 more wins just to finish in the top 16.

I hate to say it, but we can probably kiss any kind of national seed goodbye short of a crazy run in Hoover. Hoover may be our saving grace by getting to face some more high RPI teams to bring us back up.

The rest of the resume looks strong. We have plenty of Q1 wins, are in a good spot in the SEC standings, and have been playing well lately.
AggieKeith15
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We need to win the West. That should be the focus.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas and we sweep State this weekend then we are well on our way to hosting as a National Seed.
greg.w.h
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RPI is stupid. Winning is not.
Farmer1906
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If that scenario plays out we should get a national see, but it seems like a pretty large longshot at this point.
TXAggie2011
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You pretty much need a conference championship if you want a national seed without a top 8 RPI, and that's not in the cards. We're not catching Tennessee.

It's maybe a unique situation with Georgia Southern and Dallas Baptist sitting at #5 and #6 right now, but coming out of weaker conferences, so maybe something unique happens. That maybe raises the chances that winning the west and a near-top 8 RPI gives you a chance.

But there are a lot of other SEC and ACC teams between us and a national seed right now.

AgLA06
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TXAggie2011 said:

You pretty much need a conference championship if you want a national seed without a top 8 RPI, and that's not in the cards. We're not catching Tennessee.

It's maybe a unique situation with Georgia Southern and Dallas Baptist sitting at #5 and #6 right now, but coming out of weaker conferences, so maybe something unique happens. That maybe raises the chances that winning the west and a near-top 8 RPI gives you a chance.

But there are a lot of other SEC and ACC teams between us and a national seed right now.


Add that with Texas Tech playing OU and OSU to close out the season and a much higher RPI and there's plenty of options to be a national seed.

Look, the end of the year sets up for us to set our own course. Both Arkansas and LSU have to play Vandy in their final 2 series. Arky also has to play Bama who has been playing good teams tough. Both could drop a couple of games and leave an opening for us to end up in first place in the SEC west.

Win our last 2 series and our midweeks and we probably end up top 7 or 8 in the rankings. A sweep would really help (especially over state).

Anything can happen, but the first place team from the SEC West that is 8-2 in SEC series, top 8 in the rankings and a top 25 RPI has a good chance at being a national seed.

DTP02
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How does the forecast look for the Incarnate Word game?
aginlakeway
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DTP02 said:

How does the forecast look for the Incarnate Word game?

Rain.
TXAggie2011
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AggieKeith15 said:

We need to win the West. That should be the focus.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas and we sweep State this weekend then we are well on our way to hosting as a National Seed.
I don't know. That's a bit of a no-win series for us.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas, they're a national seed lock unless they turn around and blow it big time against LSU.*** A series win and they also still look really good for a national seed. If Arkansas wins that series, then they're on the way to a division championship and their RPI is going to go up, up, up.

***And of course, if Vanderbilt blows it against LSU, then LSU looks better.

Our problem is almost everyone in front of us in the ACC and SEC is playing each other the next couple of weeks and it's going to be hard to move up past all of them. Some will rise to the top of that mess.
AgLA06
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TXAggie2011 said:

AggieKeith15 said:

We need to win the West. That should be the focus.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas and we sweep State this weekend then we are well on our way to hosting as a National Seed.
I don't know. That's a bit of a no-win series for us.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas, they're a national seed lock unless they turn around and blow it big time against LSU.*** A series win and they also still look really good for a national seed. If Arkansas wins that series, then they're on the way to a division championship and their RPI is going to go up, up, up.

And of course, if Vanderbilt blows it against LSU, then LSU looks better.

Our problem is almost everyone in front of us in the ACC and SEC is playing each other the next couple of weeks and it's going to be hard to move up past all of them. Some will rise to the top of that mess.
Vandy isn't even in the conversation for a national seed unless they take 5 or 6 from Arky and LSU. They're .500 in SEC play. You can't say something like that and turn around and say we aren't getting a national seed as well.
Jarrin' Jay
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Rewind a month, we would have been ecstatic to be where we are now and looking to host a regional. That is my focus, hosting a regional. I think if we win one series and the Tuesday game and 1 game in Hoover we are hosting a regional.

Being nationally seeded and a Super Regional host site would be great, but let's focus on finishing well enough to be a Regional host.

We can still host a Super without being a national see if the other side of pairing is upset. Last time we hosted a Super Regional we were not a national seed, IIRC. And they way this team plays on the road, we can win a Super away from Olsen Field.

It's just good to be having this conversation. First things first, we need 3 Ws from the next 4 games.
TXAggie2011
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I said it in another thread, but the ACC finish is really important.

Miami is on track to win the conference, they've moved up to #7 in the RPI. They and #11 Notre Dame play in two weekends. I would really, really cheer hard for Miami to sweep that series.

#8 Virginia Tech plays #13 Louisville this coming weekend. VaTech then finishes with #106 Duke. Louisville then goes on to play #14 Virginia, who has #18 Clemson coming up.

The cleanest way to look at that may be for Louisville to keep on winning and the other to beat each other up. That'll make Louisville an easy top 8 RPI and an easy national seed, but might help us get above the others in the pecking order.
Rooster4Ag
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If we win a series against and SEC team and our RPI goes down then I say **** RPI. I guarantee you that Schloss is more than happy with a series win and doesn't give two ****s about RPI. If the people that decide seeding would rather use a metric that drops us 10 spots for winning them **** them.
What have ye done to surpass man?
TXAggie2011
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AgLA06 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

AggieKeith15 said:

We need to win the West. That should be the focus.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas and we sweep State this weekend then we are well on our way to hosting as a National Seed.
I don't know. That's a bit of a no-win series for us.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas, they're a national seed lock unless they turn around and blow it big time against LSU.*** A series win and they also still look really good for a national seed. If Arkansas wins that series, then they're on the way to a division championship and their RPI is going to go up, up, up.

And of course, if Vanderbilt blows it against LSU, then LSU looks better.

Our problem is almost everyone in front of us in the ACC and SEC is playing each other the next couple of weeks and it's going to be hard to move up past all of them. Some will rise to the top of that mess.
Vandy isn't even in the conversation for a national seed unless they take 5 or 6 from Arky and LSU. They're .500 in SEC play. You can't say something like that and turn around and say we aren't getting a national seed as well.
Vanderbilt's RPI is #4. They're absolutely in the conversation for a national seed.
Farmer1906
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Rooster4Ag said:

If we win a series against and SEC team and our RPI goes down then I say **** RPI. I guarantee you that Schloss is more than happy with a series win and doesn't give two ****s about RPI. If the people that decide seeding would rather use a metric that drops us 10 spots for winning them **** them.
You can say **** them and **** RPI, but you'll be saying that on the road in the supers.
AgLA06
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TXAggie2011 said:

AgLA06 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

AggieKeith15 said:

We need to win the West. That should be the focus.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas and we sweep State this weekend then we are well on our way to hosting as a National Seed.
I don't know. That's a bit of a no-win series for us.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas, they're a national seed lock unless they turn around and blow it big time against LSU.*** A series win and they also still look really good for a national seed. If Arkansas wins that series, then they're on the way to a division championship and their RPI is going to go up, up, up.

And of course, if Vanderbilt blows it against LSU, then LSU looks better.

Our problem is almost everyone in front of us in the ACC and SEC is playing each other the next couple of weeks and it's going to be hard to move up past all of them. Some will rise to the top of that mess.
Vandy isn't even in the conversation for a national seed unless they take 5 or 6 from Arky and LSU. They're .500 in SEC play. You can't say something like that and turn around and say we aren't getting a national seed as well.
Vanderbilt's RPI is #4. They're absolutely in the conversation for a national seed.
That's great. They're also 7th in the SEC and .500 in conference play.
Rooster4Ag
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I agree, but what else can we do but win games. I think most of us understand that our pitching isn't goof enough to sweep any SEC team, and we haven't done that yet. Taking 2/3 from Georgia-Arkansas-Vandy with 2 of those series being on the rode should be more than enough to offset a computer algorithm for dropping a game against USCe despite a series win.
What have ye done to surpass man?
Rooster4Ag
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AgLA06 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

AgLA06 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

AggieKeith15 said:

We need to win the West. That should be the focus.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas and we sweep State this weekend then we are well on our way to hosting as a National Seed.
I don't know. That's a bit of a no-win series for us.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas, they're a national seed lock unless they turn around and blow it big time against LSU.*** A series win and they also still look really good for a national seed. If Arkansas wins that series, then they're on the way to a division championship and their RPI is going to go up, up, up.

And of course, if Vanderbilt blows it against LSU, then LSU looks better.

Our problem is almost everyone in front of us in the ACC and SEC is playing each other the next couple of weeks and it's going to be hard to move up past all of them. Some will rise to the top of that mess.
Vandy isn't even in the conversation for a national seed unless they take 5 or 6 from Arky and LSU. They're .500 in SEC play. You can't say something like that and turn around and say we aren't getting a national seed as well.
Vanderbilt's RPI is #4. They're absolutely in the conversation for a national seed.
That's great. They're also 7th in the SEC and .500 in conference play.
Should tell you what RPI means if Vandy is #4 and we're #24 despite us whooping their ass on the road and having a better record than them.

It's a math equation that is to a degree an abstraction. And like any equation it can be manipulated in such a way as to not reflect reality.
What have ye done to surpass man?
TXAggie2011
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AgLA06 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

AgLA06 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

AggieKeith15 said:

We need to win the West. That should be the focus.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas and we sweep State this weekend then we are well on our way to hosting as a National Seed.
I don't know. That's a bit of a no-win series for us.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas, they're a national seed lock unless they turn around and blow it big time against LSU.*** A series win and they also still look really good for a national seed. If Arkansas wins that series, then they're on the way to a division championship and their RPI is going to go up, up, up.

And of course, if Vanderbilt blows it against LSU, then LSU looks better.

Our problem is almost everyone in front of us in the ACC and SEC is playing each other the next couple of weeks and it's going to be hard to move up past all of them. Some will rise to the top of that mess.
Vandy isn't even in the conversation for a national seed unless they take 5 or 6 from Arky and LSU. They're .500 in SEC play. You can't say something like that and turn around and say we aren't getting a national seed as well.
Vanderbilt's RPI is #4. They're absolutely in the conversation for a national seed.
That's great. They're also 7th in the SEC and .500 in conference play.
No one said you, I, or anyone here had to like it, but you're not being realistic if you don't think Vanderbilt is in the conversation.

And if they do what I contemplated in that post...go win the next two series, at a minimum, they're no longer .500 and they're no longer 7th.
Wabs
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Keep winning. We'll at minimum host a regional. If we have to go on the road for Supers, that's ok. This team has shown they can play well on the road.
TXAggie2011
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Also need to watch out for Maryland. On track to win the Big 10 and Nolan Warren predicting they can get up to #6 in the RPI.
twk
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I'm not worried about a top 8 seed. We dropped too many non-conference games early in order to expect a top 8 seed without a conference championship (or probably even a division championship).

If we go 18-12 in the SEC, we should end up hosting a regional. That's what is important. This team plays so well on the road that I'm fine with playing a road super regional. It's surviving the regional that concerns me. All I want for Christmas is the SWAC champion as our 4 seed.
AgLA06
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TXAggie2011 said:

AgLA06 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

AgLA06 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

AggieKeith15 said:

We need to win the West. That should be the focus.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas and we sweep State this weekend then we are well on our way to hosting as a National Seed.
I don't know. That's a bit of a no-win series for us.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas, they're a national seed lock unless they turn around and blow it big time against LSU.*** A series win and they also still look really good for a national seed. If Arkansas wins that series, then they're on the way to a division championship and their RPI is going to go up, up, up.

And of course, if Vanderbilt blows it against LSU, then LSU looks better.

Our problem is almost everyone in front of us in the ACC and SEC is playing each other the next couple of weeks and it's going to be hard to move up past all of them. Some will rise to the top of that mess.
Vandy isn't even in the conversation for a national seed unless they take 5 or 6 from Arky and LSU. They're .500 in SEC play. You can't say something like that and turn around and say we aren't getting a national seed as well.
Vanderbilt's RPI is #4. They're absolutely in the conversation for a national seed.
That's great. They're also 7th in the SEC and .500 in conference play.
No one said you, I, or anyone here had to like it, but you're not being realistic if you don't think Vanderbilt is in the conversation.

And if they do what I contemplated in that post...go win the next two series, at a minimum, they're no longer .500 and they're no longer 7th.
Hopefully they win 2 games each from their last 2 series, we take care of business and close out the west and "but RPI" doesn't matter.
Farmer1906
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twk said:

I'm not worried about a top 8 seed. We dropped too many non-conference games early in order to expect a top 8 seed without a conference championship (or probably even a division championship).

If we go 18-12 in the SEC, we should end up hosting a regional. That's what is important. This team plays so well on the road that I'm fine with playing a road super regional. It's surviving the regional that concerns me. All I want for Christmas is the SWAC champion as our 4 seed.
This is spot on.

Our offense makes us dangerous, but our pitching makes us very vulnerable. If we have to blow Dettmer on a strong 4 seed or a 4 seed with 1 really good pitcher, then we could be in some trouble.
BQ_90
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the fact that we're even in the discussion of national seed is crazy to me.

We should host and frankly that is just amazing considering how low the expectations where for this year.
hogfan14
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TXAggie2011 said:

AgLA06 said:

TXAggie2011 said:

AggieKeith15 said:

We need to win the West. That should be the focus.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas and we sweep State this weekend then we are well on our way to hosting as a National Seed.
I don't know. That's a bit of a no-win series for us.

If Vanderbilt sweeps Arkansas, they're a national seed lock unless they turn around and blow it big time against LSU.*** A series win and they also still look really good for a national seed. If Arkansas wins that series, then they're on the way to a division championship and their RPI is going to go up, up, up.

And of course, if Vanderbilt blows it against LSU, then LSU looks better.

Our problem is almost everyone in front of us in the ACC and SEC is playing each other the next couple of weeks and it's going to be hard to move up past all of them. Some will rise to the top of that mess.
Vandy isn't even in the conversation for a national seed unless they take 5 or 6 from Arky and LSU. They're .500 in SEC play. You can't say something like that and turn around and say we aren't getting a national seed as well.
Vanderbilt's RPI is #4. They're absolutely in the conversation for a national seed.
RPI and the NET rankings need a serious overhaul soon if they are going to continue to be used. LSU basketball stayed around #20 in the NET all last season as they lost game after game, while Arkansas had an early loss to Hofstra that weighed down their NET all season even after winning like 8-10 SEC games in a row including sweeping LSU 3-0 and still being behind them. Doesn't make any sense.

With so many games in basketball and baseball there's no logical reason that one game should have that big of an impact on your total season's resume.
W
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so if the general consensus is that A&M probably won't be a top 8 seed...

then which 3 SEC teams are going to be top 8?

1. Tennessee (conf champ)
2. Arkansas (division champ)
3. ?
agforlife97
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Well, I don't think anyone will want to play us in the Super Regional round, regardless of how we are seeded. We will host a regional in the first round, national seed or no, IMO.
twk
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W said:

so if the general consensus is that A&M probably won't be a top 8 seed...

then which 3 SEC teams are going to be top 8?

1. Tennessee (conf champ)
2. Arkansas (division champ)
3. ?
It may not be 3 this year. We might end up with a bunch of SEC teams in the 9-16 slot.
W
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that might be best for the SEC...to have just 2 teams in the top 8...

and then 4 or 5 (among A&M, LSU, Auburn, UGA, Vandy) in the 9 to 16 range

would reduce the chances of SEC vs. SEC super-regionals
Emilio Fantastico
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Is there a way to calculate what our RPI would have been had the Frisco fiasco not happened?

Like what hogfan said above, it seems like these metrics really punish you for a clunker or two that happened early in the season that has no bearing on how teams are playing at the end of the season.
AvidAggie
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What's the lowest RPI team to host in the last decade?

I'd be shocked if a team with an RPI outside the top 30 has hosted.
W
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from the other thread...Louisiana Tech hosted from the RPI #22 slot last year...and appropriately they were the #16 host
TXAggie2011
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Yeah, there's not going to be a quota. In 2017, Kentucky was 19-11 and 2nd place in the East. Their RPI was 9. They didn't get a national seed. Only Florida and LSU did. They won their divisions and were 3 and 4 in the RPI.

There's only two weeks in the regular season but there is still tons of important baseball to be played. I think its too early to say. Too many teams on the bubble.

Usually, there's a couple of clear SEC teams but this year everyone but Tennessee currently has a huge wart on their resume. Usually, there's a couple of clear ACC teams but only Miami seems to be a clear national seed (and they could screw it up yet).
Farmer1906
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twk said:

W said:

so if the general consensus is that A&M probably won't be a top 8 seed...

then which 3 SEC teams are going to be top 8?

1. Tennessee (conf champ)
2. Arkansas (division champ)
3. ?
It may not be 3 this year. We might end up with a bunch of SEC teams in the 9-16 slot.


Right now I would say Tenn, Oregon St, probably Arkansas (assuming they finish 2nd to Tenn), Okie St (assuming the win the Big12), Miami, and then it gets cloudy after that.
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