D1 Baseball releases the 2nd Field of 64 Projection

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Mr.Ackar07
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10:39a, 4/19/19
https://d1baseball.com/projections/college-baseball-projected-field-of-64-april-17/

1 Texas A&M (10 seed)
4 Stony Brook
3 Sam Houston St
2 Oklahoma St (replaces OU from the 1st projection)

paired with

1 Mississippi St (7)
4 Samford
3 Southern Miss
2 Clemson (yikes!)

Other notables:
Vandy - 3 seed
Texas Tech - 15 seed - falls from a 7 seed
Arkansas - 9 seed
Georgia - 5 seed - up from 15
LSU - 12 seed

Also making the field:
Auburn (2) - drops from a 10 seed
Texas (2) - Drops from a 12 seed
Baylor (2)
Florida (2)
Tennessee (2)
Missouri (2)
Dallas Baptist (3)
Ole Miss (2)
TCU (3)
Oklahoma (3)
Houston (3) - joins the field of 64
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Mr.Ackar07
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10:42a, 4/19/19
A&M is noted as "on the bubble - out" in regards to being a Top 8 seed
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HowdyTAMU
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In reply to Mr.Ackar07 • 10:49a, 4/19/19
AG
Mr.Ackar07 said:
A&M is noted as "on the bubble - out" in regards to being a Top 8 seed
Mid-week games may come back to haunt us.
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Chester
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10:49a, 4/19/19
There is too much baseball left to play. None of this means anything.
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Wicked Good Ag
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11:10a, 4/19/19
PAC 12 will likely have three national top 8 seeds in the end. UCLA Stanford and Oregon State. We will likely have three also and then probably two from the ACC or Santa Barbara
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W
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11:15a, 4/19/19
AG
it's funny how one night of baseball (last night) messes up D1's projections. Particularly with regard to the Big 12. D1 is underestimating the damage that KU and KSU are doing to the seeding of the league's teams. Namely Tech, t.u, and TCU. --- none are currently over .500
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Aggiehunt
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In reply to HowdyTAMU • 11:19a, 4/19/19
AG
HowdyTAMU said:
Mr.Ackar07 said:
A&M is noted as "on the bubble - out" in regards to being a Top 8 seed
Mid-week games may come back to haunt us.

If we win the rest of our SEC series (very difficult to do) none of those midweek losses will matter. But imagine if that played out...we'd be in dang good shape hosting a regional and super.
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Wicked Good Ag
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11:19a, 4/19/19
Texas series sweep of LSU is impressive but that is the only thing impressive other than one win against Stanford but that was a four game series. If they don't win about 70% of their conference games remaining they might be a three seed at Olsen
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W
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11:20a, 4/19/19
AG
and for the SEC...the wildcard is Tennessee. Vols improved to 7-9 in the league yesterday with the #8 RPI.

if Tenn can make it to 16-14...from whom do they take away a host slot? A fellow SEC team or the Big 12 / ACC
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Wicked Good Ag
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In reply to Aggiehunt • 11:20a, 4/19/19
Aggiehunt said:
HowdyTAMU said:
Mr.Ackar07 said:
A&M is noted as "on the bubble - out" in regards to being a Top 8 seed
Mid-week games may come back to haunt us.

If we win the rest of our SEC series (very difficult to do) none of those midweek losses will matter. But imagine if that played out...we'd be in dang good shape hosting a regional and super.

We win the remaining series in the SEC we will be a National Top 8 seed
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W
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In reply to Wicked Good Ag • 11:23a, 4/19/19
AG
yes, UCLA and Oregon State look like top 8 locks.

Stanford is lower in RPI, but actually leading the Pac-12 at the moment.

UCSB will be very interesting to watch, because as a host they provide an easy landing spot for Arizona State. But if Santa Barbara doesn't host, then the Sun Devils are coming east somewhere
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tjack16
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11:28a, 4/19/19
AG
That would be a fun regional with Sam and OSU/OU
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W
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11:30a, 4/19/19
AG
also...one nice thing about the Pac-12's getting 3 national seeds...it will force the committee to schedule / allow more cross-country SR matchups. Which tend to be the most interesting.

or perhaps better said...it may limit the committee's ability to match all of the SEC regional hosts up against one another (for the SR round)

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44mAG
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11:30a, 4/19/19
AG
That would be about right that we get paired with MSU and have to play in Starksville for a Super.
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tjack16
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In reply to 44mAG • 11:32a, 4/19/19
AG
44mAG said:
That would be about right that we get paired with MSU and have to play in Starksville for a Super.


Just like when we got paired with #2 North Carolina back in 2017 and people were afraid of that matchup
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Aggiehunt
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In reply to 44mAG • 12:47p, 4/19/19
AG
44mAG said:
That would be about right that we get paired with MSU and have to play in Starksville for a Super.

There's gotta be a way to stop pairing SEC teams in the supers. They've already all played each other and it's way more interesting to see SEC teams go against east or west coast teams that they haven't played.
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Luke The Drifter
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1:17p, 4/19/19
AG
The committee is, without question, not only tasked with getting the right 64 teams into the tourney and getting them seeded properly, but also with creating match ups that are for the good of the game. Having the SEC claim 5 of the 8 CWS spots...some would argue...is not in the overall best interest of college baseball. So...one way to keep that from happening is to make the Super Regional pairings to be truly regional and less coast-to-coast travel and match-ups.

I, however, would argue that Super Regional pairings like North Carolina-Oregon State, or UCLA-Georgia, or Mississippi State-Arizona State are really compelling...a lot more compelling than a Super that pitted Vanderbilt-Ole Miss or even Clemson-Florida. Seems to me that for TV purposes, you would not want to have all of your interested viewers concentrated in one small area.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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The Debt
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1:21p, 4/19/19
Pairing conference members in regionals/supers
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BQ_90
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1:35p, 4/19/19
AG
Good chance we will be paired with west coast this year
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greg.w.h
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1:48p, 4/19/19
AG
We are on the right path. Keep winning.
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tjack16
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In reply to The Debt • 4:11p, 4/19/19
AG
The Debt said:
Pairing conference members in regionals/supers


People complained because they kept pairing us up with TCU or Rice Now there is a better system in place by seeding the teams 1-16. Now people complain about that causing us to be matched up with conference opponents
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Luke The Drifter
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In reply to tjack16 • 4:15p, 4/19/19
AG
tjholley16 said:
The Debt said:
Pairing conference members in regionals/supers


People complained because they kept pairing us up with TCU or Rice Now there is a better system in place by seeding the teams 1-16. Now people complain about that causing us to be matched up with conference opponents

The 1-16 seeding is all window dressing. The committee will get the match ups they want and they'll flip-flop (for example) the 11 and 14 seeds or the 5 and 7 seeds or whatever in order to get the bracket just how they want it. Ultimately, I don't care who we play. I just think it's more fun to see non-conference folks from out of your region in the post season, instead of playing the same teams you've played in the regular season.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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greg.w.h
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4:18p, 4/19/19
AG
I think 1-16 is better and the selection committee has the latitude to either avoid or pair conference mates depending on situation. In basketball this has resulted in 3 number 1s for the ACC each with a clear path to the championship game with only one making it. But one did.

We have seen with the B12 and the SEC pairings designed to require teams to go back through conference opponents they haven't beaten yet like in 2011 in Womrn's Basketball when we had to go through Baylor to win the NC.

I think leaving it to the discretion of the selection committee is fine, but I'd prefer more transparency.
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Tom Kazansky 2012
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In reply to HowdyTAMU • 4:19p, 4/19/19
AG
HowdyTAMU said:
Mr.Ackar07 said:
A&M is noted as "on the bubble - out" in regards to being a Top 8 seed
Mid-week games may come back to haunt us.


We would need to sweep SC this weekend to have a nice shot at a National seed.
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CapCityAg89
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In reply to Tom Kazansky 2012 • 5:08p, 4/19/19
AG
It would certainly help but "need" is overstating it. We are still in very good shape for at least a top 8 RPI if not the nat seed. Even without the sweep.
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MaroonStain
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In reply to 44mAG • 5:58p, 4/19/19
AG
44mAG said:
That would be about right that we get paired with MSU and have to play in Starksville for a Super.


...and after we beat them 2-1 during conference play...
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Luke The Drifter
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In reply to Tom Kazansky 2012 • 6:09p, 4/19/19
AG
Great Beard of Zeus said:
HowdyTAMU said:
Mr.Ackar07 said:
A&M is noted as "on the bubble - out" in regards to being a Top 8 seed
Mid-week games may come back to haunt us.


We would need to sweep SC this weekend to have a nice shot at a National seed.

Not true. There will still be plenty of opportunities going forward to earn a national seed. Granted, sweeping USCe would make the path easier, but winning 2 of 3 still keeps the door open. Only winning 1 would make the path difficult, I think.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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Luke The Drifter
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In reply to greg.w.h • 6:11p, 4/19/19
AG
greg.w.h said:
I think 1-16 is better and the selection committee has the latitude to either avoid or pair conference mates depending on situation. In basketball this has resulted in 3 number 1s for the ACC each with a clear path to the championship game with only one making it. But one did.

We have seen with the B12 and the SEC pairings designed to require teams to go back through conference opponents they haven't beaten yet like in 2011 in Womrn's Basketball when we had to go through Baylor to win the NC.

I think leaving it to the discretion of the selection committee is fine, but I'd prefer more transparency.


I agree 1-16 is better than 1-8. But my point is, should the committee choose, those numbers could be really arbitrary. Transparency would be great, but what I would really, really, really prefer is consistency from one year to the next. Some committees value regular season champions very highly, others rely heavily on the RPI, others seem to spend their meetings smoking crack. I really don't care what the criteria is...as long as everyone knows well before the season starts what they're shooting for.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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ironmanag
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In reply to HowdyTAMU • 6:28p, 4/19/19
AG
HowdyTAMU said:
Mr.Ackar07 said:
A&M is noted as "on the bubble - out" in regards to being a Top 8 seed
Mid-week games may come back to haunt us.


Every year.
According to the Biden White House, what Joe Biden says does not represent the official position of the Biden administration.
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Luke The Drifter
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In reply to ironmanag • 7:05p, 4/19/19
AG
ironmanag said:
HowdyTAMU said:
Mr.Ackar07 said:
A&M is noted as "on the bubble - out" in regards to being a Top 8 seed
Mid-week games may come back to haunt us.


Every year.

Again...not true. Before this season, A&M has had an EXCELLENT mid-week record. Our mid-week win-loss record in 2019 is definitely an outlier...the exception and not the norm. Since we have joined the SEC, this is what has happened during our Tuesday/Wednesday games:

In 2019, our mid-week record is 8-4 so far, with games vs. UT-Arlington and Sam Houston State left to play.

In 2018, we lost exactly one (1) mid-week game...and that loss came in 18 innings.

In 2017, we lost 3 mid-week games.

In 2016, our mid-week record was 10-2.

In 2105, we were undefeated in mid-week games.

In 2014, we only lost twice in the mid-week.

In 2013, two mid-week losses.

So...in the last 6+ seasons, we have had a total of 14 mid-week losses...an average of about 2 per season.

This season, LSU also has 4 mid-week losses...but their losses are to the likes of RPI #123 Northwestern State, #126 McNeese, #194 Southern, and #107 Louisiana-Lafayette.

Florida, so far in 2019, has lost in the mid-week to #130 South Florida, #92 North Florida, #70 Central Florida, and #128 Florida Gulf Coast.

While I do wish that A&M had a better mid-week record this year, our losses have come to #84 Incarnate Word, #38 Dallas Baptist (on the road), #44 Texas State, and #43 Houston (also no the road).

You can hate on Childress all you want...but you'll have to pick a better and more accurate argument than "we stink in the mid-week every year."




But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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W
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7:21p, 4/19/19
AG
one small thing that could work against A&M...

assuming 11 SEC teams make the postseason...A&M would be the only club that played all 3 teams that missed (UK, SCar, Bama).

in other words...the Ags' had the friendliest unbalanced schedule in the league.

edit...the only West division team
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Luke The Drifter
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In reply to W • 7:27p, 4/19/19
AG
W said:
one small thing that could work against A&M...

assuming 11 SEC teams make the postseason...A&M would be the only club that played all 3 teams that missed (UK, SCar, Bama).

in other words...the Ags' had the friendliest unbalanced schedule in the league

Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug. You probably know better than I do, but do you think the committee drills down that deep? Playing those 3 teams won't put a big hickey on our RPI and...as long as we take care of business and get a 7-2 (or better) record against those teams...we can't legitimately be penalized for playing the league schedule that was handed to us. At least...I don't think the committee would nit-pick that much...would they?


But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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W
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7:37p, 4/19/19
AG
I've heard past committees talk about that in years past...when answering questions about why the national seeds / regional hosts (from the same conference) did not follow the final conference standings.

although RPI & SoS should account for some of that already
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ensign_beedrill
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In reply to Luke The Drifter • 9:23a, 4/22/19
AG
Luke The Drifter said:
tjholley16 said:
The Debt said:
Pairing conference members in regionals/supers


People complained because they kept pairing us up with TCU or Rice Now there is a better system in place by seeding the teams 1-16. Now people complain about that causing us to be matched up with conference opponents

The 1-16 seeding is all window dressing. The committee will get the match ups they want and they'll flip-flop (for example) the 11 and 14 seeds or the 5 and 7 seeds or whatever in order to get the bracket just how they want it. Ultimately, I don't care who we play. I just think it's more fun to see non-conference folks from out of your region in the post season, instead of playing the same teams you've played in the regular season.

That's what I'm afraid of. All it really does is give them an excuse to match up conference mates if they want to.
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MAROON
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9:45a, 4/22/19
AG
After this weekend Texas seems destined for a 3 seed at best - watch the committee send them to CS.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
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