*****Aggies @ Houston*****

75,294 Views | 471 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Lance Uppercut
Luke The Drifter
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chester said:

Luke The Drifter said:

chester said:

biles90 said:

ONot to beat a dead horse, but the bunt in the 7th was just a bad baseball play. The expected runs actually decreased from the 1st & 2nd, no outs to the 2nd and 3rd, 1 out so we actually did them a favor by giving them that out. It's 14 years in so this crew isn't going to stop giving away outs anytime soon regardless of what the statistics/math say.
It was the right thing to do. Give the anti-Childress nonsense a rest. It's getting tiresome.


It's only the right thing to do if it works. It did not work. And more times that not this season it has not worked. We're giving a way outs for the rare chance at success to follow. Our return on investment is terrible.

You know the definition of insanity, don't you? Doing the exact same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
You ALWAYS bunt in that situation! I trust the coaches.


Show me one statistical metric at any level of baseball that indicates bunting in that situation is the right play. Baseball has evolved over the years and the amount of statistical data at our fingertips is overwhelming these days. And within all of that statistical data, you'll very clearly see that sacrifice bunts are easily one of the biggest sucker bets and bad decisions in all of baseball...especially if you have a weak-hitting lineup (like A&M has this year.)

Just because bunting was the obvious play in baseball in the past, it doesn't mean it's the right thing to do today. The game of baseball is progressing. Coaches need to progress with it as it relates to their decision making process.


But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Lance Uppercut
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I wouldn't have any qualms with letting Hoehner hit there. He's one of your better hitters. But if you really can't see why a coach bunts there, you're going out of your way to not understand.

A&M leads the conference in GIDP. In conference, and overall.

Hoehner is not fast. His prior ABs in the current game were grounders on the infield. His following AB in the 9th was a grounder as well.

15 of our 19 outs in the current game had come on the infield. That's a very high amount.

A&M has not been slugging, and has a .366 slugging %. Meaning they are much more likely to get one single (.333) than start slugging or piling on runs in a big inning.

You are down 2, on the road, and can put the tying run on 2nd base in the 7th inning. You're also about to depart the small portion of your lineup where you have the better recent BA to expect a hit.

But despite all this in game evidence and knowledge of your own team, you want to take the run expectancy analysis from MLB and professional hitters an use it to declare that bunting is always the wrong move for a collegiate team that is struggling to hit and has been hitting tailor-made double play grounders all night long. I'm not saying it was the right move, but it was not an illogical move.

Also, A&M is 1 over the average for sacrifice hits in the SEC at this point. They were middle of the pack last year as well. They bunt more often on teams that have people on base more frequently, and even then, rarely with anyone that could slug. For instance, the top 5 slugging percentages on the 2016 team bunted zero times, and the only players with more than 3 SH were Choruby (fast) and Janca (struggled at the plate, lower in the lineup).
Chester
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Lance Uppercut said:

I wouldn't have any qualms with letting Hoehner hit there. He's one of your better hitters. But if you really can't see why a coach bunts there, you're going out of your way to not understand.

A&M leads the conference in GIDP. In conference, and overall.

Hoehner is not fast. His prior ABs in the current game were grounders on the infield. His following AB in the 9th was a grounder as well.

15 of our 19 outs in the current game had come on the infield. That's a very high amount.

A&M has not been slugging, and has a .366 slugging %. Meaning they are much more likely to get one single (.333) than start slugging or piling on runs in a big inning.

You are down 2, on the road, and can put the tying run on 2nd base in the 7th inning. You're also about to depart the small portion of your lineup where you have the better recent BA to expect a hit.

But despite all this in game evidence and knowledge of your own team, you want to take the run expectancy analysis from MLB and professional hitters an use it to declare that bunting is always the wrong move for a collegiate team that is struggling to hit and has been hitting tailor-made double play grounders all night long. I'm not saying it was the right move, but it was not an illogical move.

Also, A&M is 1 over the average for sacrifice hits in the SEC at this point. They were middle of the pack last year as well. They bunt more often on teams that have people on base more frequently, and even then, rarely with anyone that could slug. For instance, the top 5 slugging percentages on the 2016 team bunted zero times, and the only players with more than 3 SH were Choruby (fast) and Janca (struggled at the plate, lower in the lineup).
100% correct but you're dreaming if you think the anti-Childress crowd will stop complaining.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Lance Uppercut said:

I wouldn't have any qualms with letting Hoehner hit there. He's one of your better hitters. But if you really can't see why a coach bunts there, you're going out of your way to not understand.

A&M leads the conference in GIDP. In conference, and overall.

Hoehner is not fast. His prior ABs in the current game were grounders on the infield. His following AB in the 9th was a grounder as well.

15 of our 19 outs in the current game had come on the infield. That's a very high amount.

A&M has not been slugging, and has a .366 slugging %. Meaning they are much more likely to get one single (.333) than start slugging or piling on runs in a big inning.

You are down 2, on the road, and can put the tying run on 2nd base in the 7th inning. You're also about to depart the small portion of your lineup where you have the better recent BA to expect a hit.

But despite all this in game evidence and knowledge of your own team, you want to take the run expectancy analysis from MLB and professional hitters an use it to declare that bunting is always the wrong move for a collegiate team that is struggling to hit and has been hitting tailor-made double play grounders all night long. I'm not saying it was the right move, but it was not an illogical move.

Also, A&M is 1 over the average for sacrifice hits in the SEC at this point. They were middle of the pack last year as well. They bunt more often on teams that have people on base more frequently, and even then, rarely with anyone that could slug. For instance, the top 5 slugging percentages on the 2016 team bunted zero times, and the only players with more than 3 SH were Choruby (fast) and Janca (struggled at the plate, lower in the lineup).
Lance Uppercut - I don't know you, but I appreciate every PBP update you do for our games. You put in some work and a Blue Star seems like a very minor repayment. When Dave South retires, I believe you should apply for that job. Very serious. I don't know what your voice sounds like, but they can teach you how to eliminate the "P" pop and the "S" hiss into a microphone - you've got the rest. Thanks again for your efforts!
Mr.Ackar07
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tjholley16 said:

I will say we caught one really unlucky break tonight. When foster hit that ball to 3rd, his bat went flying down the baseline and that made Cam hesistate running. If that hadn't happened, he might have been safe at home
There were multiple instances last night. When Cam was on first, Shewmake's single would have normally got Cam to third for a 1st and 3rd no-out situation. But, Shew's hit caused Cam to hit the dirt turf and only advance to 2nd. That would have removed the bunt from Hoener. Then, the Foster bat toss caused Cam to high jump on his way home only to be out by 2 feet on the play at the plate. If he was able to run unobstructed, he should have been safe; that roller to short was slow and Cam can run.
mwm
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As always, Lance, you're spot on.
hunter2012
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Lance Uppercut said:

I wouldn't have any qualms with letting Hoehner hit there. He's one of your better hitters. But if you really can't see why a coach bunts there, you're going out of your way to not understand.

A&M leads the conference in GIDP. In conference, and overall.

Hoehner is not fast. His prior ABs in the current game were grounders on the infield. His following AB in the 9th was a grounder as well.

15 of our 19 outs in the current game had come on the infield. That's a very high amount.

A&M has not been slugging, and has a .366 slugging %. Meaning they are much more likely to get one single (.333) than start slugging or piling on runs in a big inning.

You are down 2, on the road, and can put the tying run on 2nd base in the 7th inning. You're also about to depart the small portion of your lineup where you have the better recent BA to expect a hit.

But despite all this in game evidence and knowledge of your own team, you want to take the run expectancy analysis from MLB and professional hitters an use it to declare that bunting is always the wrong move for a collegiate team that is struggling to hit and has been hitting tailor-made double play grounders all night long. I'm not saying it was the right move, but it was not an illogical move.

Also, A&M is 1 over the average for sacrifice hits in the SEC at this point. They were middle of the pack last year as well. They bunt more often on teams that have people on base more frequently, and even then, rarely with anyone that could slug. For instance, the top 5 slugging percentages on the 2016 team bunted zero times, and the only players with more than 3 SH were Choruby (fast) and Janca (struggled at the plate, lower in the lineup).
Lance Uppercut - I don't know you, but I appreciate every PBP update you do for our games. You put in some work and a Blue Star seems like a very minor repayment. When Dave South retires, I believe you should apply for that job. Very serious. I don't know what your voice sounds like, but they can teach you how to eliminate the "P" pop and the "S" hiss into a microphone - you've got the rest. Thanks again for your efforts!

This is a terrible idea, he won't be able to update the game threads then.
aggietony2010
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I can see the argument for the bunt, but I still think it is a bad move.

I'm guessing that statistically the two approaches to the AB last night were pretty similar. The bunt was probably slightly more likely to lead to 2 runs, but that's offset by the possibility of a big inning if you swing away. You need 3 to win the game, not just 2, and swinging away likely gives you the better chance. If we're down 1 run there, I'm all for the bunt. And I'm about as anti-bunting as you get.

Ironically, I think the best argument against the bunt there is less statistics and more psychological. You've worked a walk, hit a single, and have your second best hitter on the team at the plate. That's the time to push in your chips and put some confidence in your best hitters to do what they do.

The saddest thing is though that neither approach was likely to work last night. The offense was pitiful. I still think this team hosts a regional. But if we don't go 3-0, it's gonna be tough to get out of it, because we'll be playing a "midweek" game with the season on the line.
tjack16
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Most likely if we host a regional we will see UH or DBU as the 2/3 seed.
DVC2010
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Lance Uppercut said:

I wouldn't have any qualms with letting Hoehner hit there. He's one of your better hitters. But if you really can't see why a coach bunts there, you're going out of your way to not understand.

A&M leads the conference in GIDP. In conference, and overall.

Hoehner is not fast. His prior ABs in the current game were grounders on the infield. His following AB in the 9th was a grounder as well.

15 of our 19 outs in the current game had come on the infield. That's a very high amount.

A&M has not been slugging, and has a .366 slugging %. Meaning they are much more likely to get one single (.333) than start slugging or piling on runs in a big inning.

You are down 2, on the road, and can put the tying run on 2nd base in the 7th inning. You're also about to depart the small portion of your lineup where you have the better recent BA to expect a hit.

But despite all this in game evidence and knowledge of your own team, you want to take the run expectancy analysis from MLB and professional hitters an use it to declare that bunting is always the wrong move for a collegiate team that is struggling to hit and has been hitting tailor-made double play grounders all night long. I'm not saying it was the right move, but it was not an illogical move.

Also, A&M is 1 over the average for sacrifice hits in the SEC at this point. They were middle of the pack last year as well. They bunt more often on teams that have people on base more frequently, and even then, rarely with anyone that could slug. For instance, the top 5 slugging percentages on the 2016 team bunted zero times, and the only players with more than 3 SH were Choruby (fast) and Janca (struggled at the plate, lower in the lineup).


I'm pretty firmly anti-bunt, but this is the point a lot of people are missing. MLB managers have really, really good data on when bunting is likely to add value, but the same analysis has not been performed on NCAA ball, so we don't really understand the college run environment.

My hunch, however, is that bunts are less valuable in college ball than in the majors. But hunches are worthless in baseball.
Luke The Drifter
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Lance Uppercut said:

I wouldn't have any qualms with letting Hoehner hit there. He's one of your better hitters. But if you really can't see why a coach bunts there, you're going out of your way to not understand.

A&M leads the conference in GIDP. In conference, and overall.

Hoehner is not fast. His prior ABs in the current game were grounders on the infield. His following AB in the 9th was a grounder as well.

15 of our 19 outs in the current game had come on the infield. That's a very high amount.

A&M has not been slugging, and has a .366 slugging %. Meaning they are much more likely to get one single (.333) than start slugging or piling on runs in a big inning.

You are down 2, on the road, and can put the tying run on 2nd base in the 7th inning. You're also about to depart the small portion of your lineup where you have the better recent BA to expect a hit.

But despite all this in game evidence and knowledge of your own team, you want to take the run expectancy analysis from MLB and professional hitters an use it to declare that bunting is always the wrong move for a collegiate team that is struggling to hit and has been hitting tailor-made double play grounders all night long. I'm not saying it was the right move, but it was not an illogical move.

Also, A&M is 1 over the average for sacrifice hits in the SEC at this point. They were middle of the pack last year as well. They bunt more often on teams that have people on base more frequently, and even then, rarely with anyone that could slug. For instance, the top 5 slugging percentages on the 2016 team bunted zero times, and the only players with more than 3 SH were Choruby (fast) and Janca (struggled at the plate, lower in the lineup).


Oh...I'm with you and I'm not saying you're wrong with any of this. I'm just saying that, given our batting order make up, letting the other team have free outs is a bad idea in general. We make enough easy outs on our own without putting them out there on a silver platter. My frustration is just as much with our inability to hit the baseball as it is with our coaching staff being predictable, by-the-book, and...quite frankly...hard headed. And I'm not necessarily in the anti-Childress crowd. I think he's done good (but not necessarily great) things for A&M baseball and I do not believe it is time to make a coaching change. I am, however, firmly ensconced in the anti-Will Bolt crowd. I'm sure Coach Bolt is a nice guy and from what I know the players like him. But...in my opinion...he's not that great of an assistant coach, and I also feel Coach Childress gives him too much decision making power and leeway. I'd like to see someone new in Coach Bolt's position next year, but let me be clear...I am NOT one of the anti-Childress guys on this board. Do I think the A&M baseball program can be better than it is? Oh heck yes and I think Childress has the potential to make it better. But, for the time being, Childress is just a good (not great) head coach who finds his way into the post-season every year. Nothing spectacular, nothing awful. Just consistently pretty good.


But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
TempleAg97
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I've been continuing to follow this thread and I can't imagine it could be said any better than Luke just did. I am a supporter of Coach Childress. You have to be a good coach to have 40+ wins all those years in a row and make postseason all those years in a row. And for the anti-Childress crowd, VERY few other coaches have done that. But it's also been well documented (beaten like a dead horse?) that truly elite coaches make it to Omaha more often and actually win a game there every once in a while when they get there. That makes it fairly obvious he is not elite.

As far as Bolt is concerned, I don't like his approach, period. And I despise his base coaching. Those base running blunders do not seem like a big deal in isolation, but when you add them up, just those alone might be season changers.

All we can hope is we get a favorable matchup up in regionals and potential supers where our main competitors are stacked with left handed lineups. If that happens and we play solid defense, hell, we could make the CWS and go deep into it. Here's to that!!!
Aggie09Derek
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Did you think we made any baserunning blunders last night?
AggieBand2004
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Aggie09Derek said:

Did you think we made any baserunning blunders last night?

I don't know, does not being on them count as a baserunning blunder?
Mr.Ackar07
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Aggie09Derek said:

Did you think we made any baserunning blunders last night?
I know this is directed at Temple, but no. The Cam Blake play at the plate was due to the thrown bat by Foster. That ground ball was a slow roller and Cam would have made it home has he not had to high jump on his way to the plate. Shewmake was already on the move to 3rd by this time, so had Cam retreated to 3rd, Shewmake would have been doubled off. Cam was out by 2 steps on that play, had he not had to pause, he would have beaten the throw by a step.
Aggie09Derek
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Agree.....worst case is you get thrown out at home and end up with 1st and 3rd vs 2nd and 3rd.

Was the right play to go on contact, just stinks he didn't have much of a chance due to the slow down of having to dodge a bat (right after having to almost hit the dirt avoiding getting hit by shew's line drive).

CypressAg09
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AggieBand2004 said:

Aggie09Derek said:

Did you think we made any baserunning blunders last night?

I don't know, does not being on them count as a baserunning blunder?
That's the worst one imo.
Lance Uppercut
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Whether you bunt in that situation and whether you approve of Coach Bolt seem like 2 separate discussions. A lot of teams with good coaches bunt in that situation. A lot of teams don't have to bunt in that situation because they have at least some production between 5-9 in their lineup.

I would guess that the offense's "normal" is some between the Kentucky outburst and last night. Not a 8-9 run team, but even a 4-5 run team, and we'd be ok. But there are a lot of 0-2 run efforts recently.

I wrote the "worst offense historically" thread. We're back in that territory in terms of average and slugging. And if your guys end up having the worst season in recent history and finishing last place in hitting, the coaches don't really have anywhere to hide in terms of culpability.
 
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