So Jonathan Childress

6,934 Views | 33 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Wicked Good Ag
AG86PF
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will be the Sunday starter?
Sandman98
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Seems to be true at least this week.
technoviking
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That's what I'm seeing. Either the whole staff is gonna be good or our sophomores and up are regressing.

As long as we don't give up 6+ walks a game like we did last year, I'll be happy..
96ags
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technoviking said:

That's what I'm seeing. Either the whole staff is gonna be good or our sophomores and up are regressing.

As long as we don't give up 6+ walks a game like we did last year, I'll be happy..
Really? Why make things like this up?
Lance Uppercut
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Looks like we averaged 3.1 walks per game and tied for the 2nd fewest walks allowed in the conference.
96ags
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3rd actually, behind Mizzou and 3 more than Bama's 195 total.

To go along with the least amount of wild pitches in the conference and the 2nd lowest ERA.

technoviking
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Lance Uppercut said:

Looks like we averaged 3.1 walks per game and tied for the 2nd fewest walks allowed in the conference.




I remember one point in the season where self inflicted wounds in the form of walks and hit batsmen seemed to be a recurring issue is the reason I brought it up. It's been long enough now to where I may not know what I'm talking about, though.
Raggie21
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Not walking people has always been a strength of the team. Doubt that will change this year
BringJackieBack89
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Actually, I like pushing a fish out there early to see what he can do. I don't mind some early, non-conference shake ups, just as long as we have a good, settled rotation starting conference this year.
The trouble with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.
TXAGBQ76
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I'm thinking he got confused with number of walks per game he took to the restroom. Problem not a bad idea to cut those down.
Aggieangler93
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technoviking said:

That's what I'm seeing. Either the whole staff is gonna be good or our sophomores and up are regressing.

As long as we don't give up 6+ walks a game like we did last year, I'll be happy..
Username does not check out!!!
Class of '93 - proud Dad of a '22 grad and a '26 student!
technoviking
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Aggieangler93 said:

technoviking said:

That's what I'm seeing. Either the whole staff is gonna be good or our sophomores and up are regressing.

As long as we don't give up 6+ walks a game like we did last year, I'll be happy..
Username does not check out!!!
alright alright! i had a bad take!

though i do still contend that we gave a lot away while on the mound/defense.

overall 2018 SEC stats

we had the best ERA in the SEC last year. But, we had the third highest difference of runs allowed to earned runs allowed at 47 (257 runs allowed to 210 earned runs allowed). We were tied for the third lowest number of walks allowed, however, we had the third highest number of hit batters. we the lowest number of wild pitches.

those auburn and georgia series burn in my mind because, if my ****ty memory serves me right.. we gave those series away with some innings that spiraled out of control with mistakes.
AG86PF
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So what do we know about Childress? All I know is lefty with a big hook. I kinda like that on a Sunday following our Fri/Sat guys. If he can keep that hook in the strike zone like Matt Kent did his last year he could be tough on Sundays. He doesn't have to have a huge fastball to be effective
AggieBill005
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I follow. I'd be interested in seeing how they occurred. Seemed like they came in clusters which might be why it feels worse than the stat suggests.
tjack16
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I think 2017 was the year where walks were a bigger issue (still have nightmares about that TCU game in minute maid)
SchizoAg
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AG86PF said:

So what do we know about Childress? All I know is lefty with a big hook. I kinda like that on a Sunday following our Fri/Sat guys. If he can keep that hook in the strike zone like Matt Kent did his last year he could be tough on Sundays. He doesn't have to have a huge fastball to be effective
Is he related to Rob?
test sig
Ag 11
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No
themissinglink
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Here is the write-up from mlb.com

Quote:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Forney (Texas) High boasts the best lefty/righty duo of prep pitching prospects in this year's draft in Childress and Mason Englert. While Englert has improved this spring, Childress has regressed slightly and has teams wondering if they can select him early enough to divert him from his commitment to Texas A&M. He still has advanced feel to spin but isn't throwing as hard as he did on the showcase circuit last summer.

Childress has one of the better curveballs in the high school ranks, a wipeout bender with 1-to-7 break at its best, and he also can throw a tight slider. But after regularly topping out at 93-94 mph with his fastball last summer, he has opened most games this spring at 89-91 mph and dipped to the mid-80s in the middle innings. His fastball often features nice armside run, though it has flattened out and sat up in the zone at times this year.

Childress also throws an effective changeup. His size, athleticism and strike-throwing ability bode well for a future as a starter. His curveball enhances his floor as at least a left-handed specialist.
Marvin
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themissinglink said:

Here is the write-up from mlb.com

Quote:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45



I need to learn more about this grading system, because that does not add up to me. Is his lack of a single dominant pitch the reason for the overall low grade?
W
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it's amazing how the midweek cupcakes and February tomato cans skew the pitching statistics.

the 2018 pitching staff did indeed lead the SEC in pitching with a 3.38 ERA.

but the same pitching staff gave up...

20 runs in the 3-game regional.

18 runs vs. South Carolina.
18 runs vs. Arkansas.
18 runs vs. Florida.
18 runs vs. State

the staff was quite terrible in April and May...other than the SEC tournament.

go figure
jt2hunt
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Did we lose those series?
tjack16
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jt2hunt said:

Did we lose those series?


Went 4-8 in those series if I'm not mistaken
NewOldAg
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technoviking said:

Aggieangler93 said:

technoviking said:

That's what I'm seeing. Either the whole staff is gonna be good or our sophomores and up are regressing.

As long as we don't give up 6+ walks a game like we did last year, I'll be happy..
Username does not check out!!!
alright alright! i had a bad take!

though i do still contend that we gave a lot away while on the mound/defense.

overall 2018 SEC stats

we had the best ERA in the SEC last year. But, we had the third highest difference of runs allowed to earned runs allowed at 47 (257 runs allowed to 210 earned runs allowed). We were tied for the third lowest number of walks allowed, however, we had the third highest number of hit batters. we the lowest number of wild pitches.

those auburn and georgia series burn in my mind because, if my ****ty memory serves me right.. we gave those series away with some innings that spiraled out of control with mistakes.
This post made me curious and I have too much time on my hands so I aggregated all of the numbers for guys that started conference games since 2015 and sorted them statistically by K/9, BB/9, and H/9. I also looked at their record by day (FRI, SAT, or SUN) to determine if there are different statistical indicators for success on Fridays vs. Sundays, for example.

First, there are some interesting splits. Kyle Simonds killed it on Sundays (9-3) and stunk on Saturdays (0-3). Kolek was 0-7 on Fridays and Saturdays, but 6-7 on Sundays.

It seems that the best indicator of success on Fridays and Saturdays is K/9 being high but more importantly H/9 being low. Other than ridiculous outliers, BB/9 wasn't really that indicative of success then. So what you really need on those days is guys that miss bats even if they walk a few guys. The top 3 guys in H/9 were Grayson Long, Corbin Martin, and Brigham Hill.

Turning it around, BB/9 is the BEST indicator of success on Sundays. Guys like Simonds, Kent, and Kilkenny didn't necessarily miss bats but they walked the fewest guys and they killed it on Sundays.

I know there's nothing ground breaking here but its nice to put some numbers to a theory. It also tells us what to be looking for in non-conference. Even if Dox and Lacy are having success early, we can guess whether it will continue in conference by looking at H/9 and K/9 to determine whether its sustainable during conference play.
ptothemo
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Marvin said:

themissinglink said:

Here is the write-up from mlb.com

Quote:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45



I need to learn more about this grading system, because that does not add up to me. Is his lack of a single dominant pitch the reason for the overall low grade?

The overall grade isn't necessarily proportional to the individual pitch grades. Overall is more a reflection of the entire package and MLB readiness where the individual pitch grades are more based on raw stuff. There is definitely relation between the individual pitch grades and the overall grade, but it's not formulaic.

Edit - MLB readiness probably isn't the best way for me to put it. Projected MLB level is a better way to put it. 50 is a projected average MLB player.
Sean98
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Quote:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Forney (Texas) High boasts the best lefty/righty duo of prep pitching prospects in this year's draft in Childress and Mason Englert. While Englert has improved this spring, Childress has regressed slightly and has teams wondering if they can select him early enough to divert him from his commitment to Texas A&M. He still has advanced feel to spin but isn't throwing as hard as he did on the showcase circuit last summer.

Childress has one of the better curveballs in the high school ranks, a wipeout bender with 1-to-7 break at its best, and he also can throw a tight slider. But after regularly topping out at 93-94 mph with his fastball last summer, he has opened most games this spring at 89-91 mph and dipped to the mid-80s in the middle innings. His fastball often features nice armside run, though it has flattened out and sat up in the zone at times this year.


So, a LHP with 1-to-7 break on his curve ball??? That IS impressive!
MaroonStain
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deleted
Bocephus
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Had to actually go to work so missed the game today. Was watching the highlights and it looks like Childress has some sink on his fastball. Either that or he was throwing a slider. Can anyone there confirm the movement on his fastball? He was throwing 94 which conforms to what we were told heading into the game. Hard thrower who would touch mid-90's.
Emilio Fantastico
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technoviking said:

Aggieangler93 said:

technoviking said:

That's what I'm seeing. Either the whole staff is gonna be good or our sophomores and up are regressing.

As long as we don't give up 6+ walks a game like we did last year, I'll be happy..
Username does not check out!!!
alright alright! i had a bad take!

though i do still contend that we gave a lot away while on the mound/defense.

overall 2018 SEC stats

we had the best ERA in the SEC last year. But, we had the third highest difference of runs allowed to earned runs allowed at 47 (257 runs allowed to 210 earned runs allowed). We were tied for the third lowest number of walks allowed, however, we had the third highest number of hit batters. we the lowest number of wild pitches.

those auburn and georgia series burn in my mind because, if my ****ty memory serves me right.. we gave those series away with some innings that spiraled out of control with mistakes.
Your memory of the Auburn and Georgia series is correct. We had late inning leads in games of both of those where pitching and fielding meltdowns blew the leads. Both resulted in 1-2 series losses instead of 2-1 series wins which ultimately kept us from getting a host bid.

I think the bottom line is our pitching was very good walk-wise most of the time. But when it was bad, it was REALLY bad.
Goro Majima
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I thought he did just fine for a fish making his first start. Granted, he didn't have the fielders commit a ton of errors but he had a respectable outing.
drthoop
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Bocephus said:

Had to actually go to work so missed the game today. Was watching the highlights and it looks like Childress has some sink on his fastball. Either that or he was throwing a slider. Can anyone there confirm the movement on his fastball? He was throwing 94 which conforms to what we were told heading into the game. Hard thrower who would touch mid-90's.
Pretty sure he was throwing sliders. From my seats you could see the ball look like it was falling off a table. Impressive for a Freshman.
Tom Hooper '82,'84,'86---- College Station, Texas
Bocephus
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Thx
djktamu
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Childress may not be the answer as our third starter. At least not count on many innings out of his starts. You go through a lineup once OK. If the opposition figures you out, you have a game like today against UIC. Rough outing today. At least one awful inning. It may be a stamina issue, but he may be better suited as a long reliever for now. Kid had very decent stuff for five innings. Maybe cap his starts at five innings, and then plan on using the bullpen.
Goro Majima
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And that's ok. I'd have been surprised if a true freshman pitcher was a weekend starter all the way through the season.
Jimmy_the_gent
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I always figured the first couple weeks of the season as being a low risk "spring training". Prepare yourself for conference play and for some of the more intense Tuesday night games that come later on down the road.

Will be interesting to see how Childress performs next Sunday.
Wicked Good Ag
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Dox didn't start as one of the weekend starters last year and ended probably as our best pitcher
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