RPI Needs Report *2018*

9,470 Views | 55 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by AggieFrog
24601
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AG
I enjoy watching the RPI Needs Report every year, seems like it's about time to get the discussion started.

RPI Needs Report

Looks like the Needs Report thinks we need to win approximately 14 more games to be in NS conversation, and just 11 or 12 to be in the Host conversation. I like those odds. Note that it should be updated every morning, but it still says that we have 19 remaining games and I think that number should be only 18, so I'm not sure whether or not it has factored in yesterday's game.

Updated 5/8/18


Texas A&M

Texas A&M

Remaining: 4 home, 3 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 13
ROWP: 0.619

Top 45:

No more wins needed.

Top 32:

No more wins needed.

Top 16:

1 home wins, 3 road wins
2 home wins, 2 road wins
3 home wins, 1 road wins
4 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 8:

4 home wins, 2 road wins
AgEng06
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AG
in
24601
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AG
Perhaps it is counting the UH postponed game as still on our schedule to be played, which could be the reason why it's showing 19 games remaining for us.

Also, TCU needs to win 16/20 (80%) of their remaining games to have a good chance to make the field. I like those odds too!
rally-cap
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AG
I think a top 8 RPI is very doable. If we can take 2 of 3 against Tennessee and Mississippi State, that will help a lot with Florida coming to Blue Bell, and having to go to Arky. And win the rest of the home midweeks.
Sean98
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AG
I think we really need to win 5 of 6 versus UT/MSSt to put ourselves in the hunt.
MaroonStain
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AG
My crystal ball says our regional will be paired with the tceh Lubbock Super Regional.
24601
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AG
Still sitting at #14 in the RPI even after a dreadful weekend. The Needs Report says we need to win 10-11 of our remaining 16 games (apparently including "postponed" UH game), so probably 9-10 of our remaining 15 games if UH does not happen.

ACU (RPI 245) - Win
PVAMU (RPI 293) - Win
SHSU (RPI 57) - Win

@ MSU (RPI 46) - Win 2 out of 3
vs. UF (RPI 2) - Win 1 out of 3
@ Ark (RPI 8) - Win 1 out of 3
vs. USCe (RPI 59) - Win 2 out of 3

This should be our expectation at a bare minimum, which would give us 9 wins and make us borderline at best for a host spot. A rainout tomorrow (unlikely) or next Tuesday would sure help us as well.

As a side note, the report indicates that 40 teams still have a chance at finishing with a top 16 RPI.
Sean98
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TE said:

The Needs Report says we need to win 10-11 of our remaining 16 games (apparently including "postponed" UH game), so probably 9-10 of our remaining 15 games if UH does not happen.

...that is to remain in the Top 16. We have to go almost undefeated to get into the Top8.

Fun note: TCU needs to be undefeated the rest of the year to get into the Top32.
CapCityAg89
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AG
Need to sweep MSU and USC now. Plus win either at Arkie or when UF comes in.

Best bet is sweep those two, take 1 from Arkie and then Saturday and Sunday from UF at BBP.

For the SR host that is - I don't think any of that is likely but think we could pull off the above.
tjack16
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CapCityAg89 said:

Need to sweep MSU and USC now. Plus win either at Arkie or when UF comes in.

Best bet is sweep those two, take 1 from Arkie and then Saturday and Sunday from UF at BBP.

For the SR host that is - I don't think any of that is likely but think we could pull off the above.
I think the goal now is regional host. Which is doable if we win/sweep MSU and SC

a top 8 national seed at this point isn't as realistic.
HoustonAg2106
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tjholley17 said:

CapCityAg89 said:

Need to sweep MSU and USC now. Plus win either at Arkie or when UF comes in.

Best bet is sweep those two, take 1 from Arkie and then Saturday and Sunday from UF at BBP.

For the SR host that is - I don't think any of that is likely but think we could pull off the above.
I think the goal now is regional host. Which is doable if we win/sweep MSU and SC

a top 8 national seed at this point isn't as realistic.
Don't forget the opportunity to make a run in the SEC tournament
Mr.Ackar07
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Based on the ACU game, if the Ags win tonight, they will probably still fall from 14th in RPI to 15th. God forbid the Ags lose, they would probably fall down to 20th.
HoustonAg2106
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Mr.Ackar07 said:

Based on the ACU game, if the Ags win tonight, they will probably still fall from 14th in RPI to 15th. God forbid the Ags lose, they would probably fall down to 20th.
They are 15th in the RPI right now.
Mr.Ackar07
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Warren has us at 14
AgEng06
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Does the RPI page not seem to be loading correctly for anyone else? When I click the link it only loads alphabetically through "Purdue".
CapCityAg89
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Given who we play the rest of the season, this weekend is a must win for us to stay top 16. Might be a must sweep for us to host.

The Sunday games early in conference and last weekend are just monsters.
TempleAg97
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CapCityAg89 said:

Given who we play the rest of the season, this weekend is a must win for us to stay top 16. Might be a must sweep for us to host.

The Sunday games early in conference and last weekend are just monsters.


How do you figure?? We still play RPI 2 and 4. Plenty of great RPI opportunities to move up I'd think. Unless you are just assuming we are going to lose those games, the Ags still totally control their own destiny.

Time for Chafin and Sherrod to reach their potential and let's do this!
CapCityAg89
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I think we win games, but probably lose both series. Arkie is beatable, but it's a road series; UF is theoretically beatable, but I haven't really seen proof of that this year. RPI might not suffer much with 2-4, but combined with league position, it'll mean a run in the SECT.

Again - this is to host.
MaroonStain
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Unless we tank then we will host. Then again if the sun doesn't shine, well, we are all effed.
HoustonAg2106
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MaroonStain said:

Unless we tank then we will host. Then again if the sun doesn't shine, well, we are all effed.


Beat Miss State and South Carolina (hopefully sweep one of them) and don't get swept by Florida or Arkansas should do it...maybe a little run in the tourney too
AgEng06
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Update for A&M, going into this weekend:

Texas A&M

Remaining: 8 home, 6 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 14
ROWP: 0.602

Top 45:

0 home wins, 3 road wins
1 home wins, 2 road wins
2 home wins, 1 road wins
3 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 32:

0 home wins, 6 road wins
1 home wins, 4 road wins
2 home wins, 3 road wins
3 home wins, 2 road wins
4 home wins, 1 road wins
5 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 16:

3 home wins, 6 road wins
4 home wins, 5 road wins
5 home wins, 3 road wins
6 home wins, 2 road wins
7 home wins, 1 road wins
8 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 8:

5 home wins, 6 road wins
6 home wins, 5 road wins
7 home wins, 3 road wins
8 home wins, 2 road wins
Ragoo
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AG
You need to edit your OP as possibilities are eliminated. You can use forum code to strike thru the lines that are gone.
caleblyn
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We need 9 wins from the following in order of difficulty (easy first)...

PVAM
SHSt
SC - 3 games
@ Arky - 3 games
FL - 3 games

Anything greater than 6 wins would exceed expectations. Getting to 9 will be difficult. We would have to win the two NCs and sweep one of the SEC teams.
AgEng06
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AG
We only need 8 wins if we sweep the home games.
jt2hunt
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Will we make up the uh game?
Sean98
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Does not appear so. Seems that they didn't have any interest in it at the time, but they should now. It has the potential to be a really good RPI boost for them.
CapCityAg89
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Most likely path to top 8:

2-0 OOC
1-2 Gators
2-1 Arkie
3-0 Cocks

In other words, not likely (would really like to have one of those UT losses back). Top 16, though seems pretty solid:

2-0 OOC (1-1 with loss to ****ing Sam wouldn't kill us - is that SOB that always has HOF outings against us still pitching for them?)
1-2 Gators
1-2 Arkie
2-1 Cocks

We just can't get swept in those big matchups.
stick93
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Dakota Mills is still at Sam. Odds are he will be on the bump against us.
nereus
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CapCityAg89 said:

In other words, not likely (would really like to have one of those UT losses back). Top 16, though seems pretty solid:

2-0 OOC (1-1 with loss to ****ing Sam wouldn't kill us - is that SOB that always has HOF outings against us still pitching for them?)
1-2 Gators
1-2 Arkie
2-1 Cocks

We just can't get swept in those big matchups.
Top 16 but maybe not a host. A .500 SEC record, 6 losing weekends, a couple good series wins (Miss St, USCe, LSU) but nothing spectacular to hang our hat on (none of them hosts or teams on the bubble to host).

That seems like the resume of a team that has a good chance of being skipped for a worse RPI team. We would still have the SEC tournament to make some noise, but I don't like our chances of hosting if our RPI is 15 or 16 with those results.
HoustonAg2106
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nereus said:

CapCityAg89 said:

In other words, not likely (would really like to have one of those UT losses back). Top 16, though seems pretty solid:

2-0 OOC (1-1 with loss to ****ing Sam wouldn't kill us - is that SOB that always has HOF outings against us still pitching for them?)
1-2 Gators
1-2 Arkie
2-1 Cocks

We just can't get swept in those big matchups.
Top 16 but maybe not a host. A .500 SEC record, 6 losing weekends, a couple good series wins (Miss St, USCe, LSU) but nothing spectacular to hang our hat on (none of them hosts or teams on the bubble to host).

That seems like the resume of a team that has a good chance of being skipped for a worse RPI team. We would still have the SEC tournament to make some noise, but I don't like our chances of hosting if our RPI is 15 or 16 with those results.
I tend to agree, we need to win the series against either Florida or Arkansas to feel really good about it, other wise it will depend on what other teams do as well.
BTKAG97
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CapCityAg89 said:

Most likely path to top 8:

2-0 OOC
1-2 Gators
2-1 Arkie
3-0 Cocks

Quote:

Texas A&M

Remaining: 8 home, 3 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 11
ROWP: 0.630


Top 16:

4 home wins, 2 road wins
5 home wins, 1 road wins
6 home wins, 0 road wins


Top 8:

6 home wins, 3 road wins
7 home wins, 2 road wins
8 home wins, 0 road wins
According to boysworld, the path you posted would only be top 16.
dermdoc
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The problem with "rpi needs" in baseball or basketball is that there are way too many variables with this much season left. Other teams are playing and winning or losing also. I guess it is fun but it means nothing.
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TempleAg97
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Of course there are tons of variables, but to say it means nothing is overly dramatic. More than 80 percent of the data is in so the remaining scenarios are definitely much more predictable. And it's definitely fun just like the projections of the regionals each week can't easily be predicted this far out but are super fun to look at.
HoustonAg2106
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Just win baby!
caleblyn
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dermdoc said:

The problem with "rpi needs" in baseball or basketball is that there are way too many variables with this much season left. Other teams are playing and winning or losing also. I guess it is fun but it means nothing.


However, if we get 9 wins, I think top 8 is extremely deserving.
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