jkag89 said:

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matt.maggio3 said:

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LOB count up to 355. Average of 8.07/game.

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IMO 8 LOBsters per game is not "out of control" for a team scoring nearly 6½ runs a game.

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Couldn't agree more

I still think we leave too many on. Avg of 8/game for 6.5 runs seems ok, and for an MLB team that'd be great. Our LOB% is 50.14%. That would put us 3rd in the MLB in 2016 for that stat. However, I see a big difference between MLB and College Ball. Getting a guy on base in college seems to equate to more runs scored. MLB pitchers don't get into their own heads as much. A guy on first in MLB doesn't mean much. A guy on second still isn't a shoe in to score. However, in college how many games have we watched where getting a guy into the stretch is the difference between a shutdown inning and breaking the game open. Relievers that can't find the strike zone for weeks at a time, inconsistent closers giving up grand slams in back to back games. Just seems to me that you get a guy on base in college ball, more things happen and they wind up scoring, leading to higher R/G and lower LOB. I think we leave too many guys on, we've had the bases loaded with less than 2 outs and couldn't score a single run at least 4 times this year...twice in the same game!

Still trying to find consistent data on college LOB% to compare ours with, but for the amount of guys we have had on base (708 by my count), I feel we should be scoring more than 40.11% of them (considering that of the 355 LOB, about half were in scoring position).

FWIW, 4.2% of the men we have had on base were GDP'd, so who knows if they would've added to our LOBs or Runs had they not been part of a GDP.

It's kind of silly how adamant you are that these numbers are "out of control" yet you have no idea how they compare to any other team

I think the OP believes that any number higher than 1 LOB, for the season, is too high.

I've said that anecdotally I've heard from people who played college ball at major programs that 5-6 LOB/game is considered a good range. There is no stat tracker out there for NCAA wide, so hard to prove one way or another. My source has 2 CWS rings though, so I take his word for it. Also just makes sense to me bc I see us easily getting there if we just bring our guys home.

I don't know about that. We have data on MLB, and if an MLB team can get their LOB below about 6.7 or 6.8 a game, they're in a "good range."

Its worth tracking, I guess, but you cannot oversell it. You have to admit there may be factors that tend to raise LOB rates while also raising the stat that really matters, run scored.

Your buddy may correct in what A&M wants. Ex-ballplayers have great wisdoms. But I'm not sure they're always statistically more reputable than anyone else out there.

matt.maggio3 said:

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I've said that anecdotally I've heard from people who played college ball at major programs that 5-6 LOB/game is considered a good range. There is no stat tracker out there for NCAA wide, so hard to prove one way or another. My source has 2 CWS rings though, so I take his word for it. Also just makes sense to me bc I see us easily getting there if we just bring our guys home.

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So is our LOB/game supposed to be lower than our runs/game? Because being able to lower our LOB/game to 5-6 without lowering our runs/game would be very impressive, but I doubt there are very many teams that have higher runs per game than LOB.

This is all opinion based until we can see where we rank compared to the rest of college baseball or at least in our conference, these could be really good or really bad compared to our peers, the fact is we don't know

went back and checked his math on his CWS years. They averaged 9.67 and 9.61 runs per game over those 2 years ('96&'97) and 6.9 & 7.11 LOB per game. so a little higher than the 5-6 number, but yes LOB/game CAN and should be lower than R/G if you're scoring the guys you get on.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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matt.maggio3 said:

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I've said that anecdotally I've heard from people who played college ball at major programs that 5-6 LOB/game is considered a good range. There is no stat tracker out there for NCAA wide, so hard to prove one way or another. My source has 2 CWS rings though, so I take his word for it. Also just makes sense to me bc I see us easily getting there if we just bring our guys home.

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So is our LOB/game supposed to be lower than our runs/game? Because being able to lower our LOB/game to 5-6 without lowering our runs/game would be scoring more runs.

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FIFY

I procrastinated what I should have been doing, but I got us a little data. I can't find a good site so I just went though the play by play on the teams' websites. I took the top 11 RPI teams (except OSU because I can't find the play by play for their games on their website). I'll try and see if I can add some mediocre and bad teams in here at some point to see if we can get a better idea how/if LOB/R correlate. Still, this is the company we want to keep and what we want to compare ourselves to.

This is the four weeks from March 26 through April 22.

Arkansas
152 LOB (8.94/G)
101 R (5.94/G)
1.50 LOB/R

UNC
136 LOB (8.5/G)
119 R (7.44/G)
1.14 LOB/R

Florida
132 LOB (8.25/G)
119 R (7.44/G)
1.23 LOB/R

A&M
116 LOB (7.73/G)
76 R (5.07/G)
1.43 LOB/R

Georgia
112 LOB (7.63/G)
68 R (4.25/G)
1.79 LOB/R

Clemson
116 LOB (7.25/G)
100 R (6.25/G)
1.16 LOB/R

Tech
108 LOB (7.2/G)
145 R (9.67/G)
.74 LOB/R

Auburn
113 LOB (7.06/G)
107 R (6.69/G)
1.06 LOB/R

Ole Miss
112 LOB (7/G)
114 R (7.13/G)
.98 LOB/R

Stanford
112 LOB (7/G)
106 R (6.63/G)
1.06 LOB/R

Even though we compare semi-favorably in LOB/R, we have scored considerably less runs overall that the other teams (except GA).

matt.maggio3 said:

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went back and checked his math on his CWS years. They averaged 9.67 and 9.61 runs per game over those 2 years ('96&'97) and 6.9 & 7.11 LOB per game. so a little higher than the 5-6 number, but yes LOB/game CAN and should be lower than R/G if you're scoring the guys you get on.

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Those numbers are basically what Tech did in that four week period. So those numbers are certainly possible. Still, that was during the Gorilla Ball era of college baseball. Tech accomplished that mostly by having 15, 21, 26, and 20 run game blowouts against New Mexico and the Kansas schools.

I'm not sure they could put up those numbers in the SEC or during a CWS run. They certainly weren't anywhere near that when playing top 100 RPI teams in the past 7 games.

i applaud your hard work to dig this up. LOB/R shows us as lower half of this group. Let's get it closer to a 1:1 ratio and score more runs.

matt.maggio3 said:

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went back and checked his math on his CWS years. They averaged 9.67 and 9.61 runs per game over those 2 years ('96&'97) and 6.9 & 7.11 LOB per game. so a little higher than the 5-6 number, but yes LOB/game CAN and should be lower than R/G if you're scoring the guys you get on.

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I hate to bring it up because the argument is kinda oversold, but you have to think that runs/game and especially HR/game were WAY up in 96-97. A HR leads to SERIOUS decrease in LOB.

I'm not saying whether our LOB are good or bad. I actually think they're better than they were back in the early Childress years (08-12 felt especially frustrating). That's extremely anecdotal becuase I haven't looked at the numbers. It just felt like we'd go 0-fer with RISP so much.

Hope you're keeping track tonight OP

Another 11 LOB tonight; scored 18. I'm ok with that ratio although I think we coulda broken 20 runs