Kenpom stats, etc..

1,626 Views | 12 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by rlb28
rlb28
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:10a, 1/26/23
AG
I forgot that I paid $25 earlier in the year for Kenpom premium. Here are the schedule predictions and what they say are the chance of winning percentage for each game. I"ll have some other interesting stats later.

Vandy - W (78%)
@Arkansas - L (32%)
Georgia - W (79%)
Auburn - W (56%)
@LSU - W (65%)
Arkansas - W (54%)
@Missouri - L (44%)
Tennessee - L (29%)
@Miss St - L (43%)
@ Ole Miss - W (59%)
Alabama - L (32%)

The projected record would be 20-11, 12-6.

Interesting that Miss State is only 43% win percent. They have lost 8 of 9 although they are playing better.

Kenpom gives the Ags 3.4 points as homecourt advantage at Reed. That home court advantage is 82nd in Division I. Texas Tech and West Virginia get 4.6 points per home game to lead the nation. Kentucky is best in SEC at 4.2
Reply Quote
7
1 edit
frenchtoast
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:18a, 1/26/23
I really miss when that info was free. Good for him, though. Thanks for posting this.
Reply Quote
4
Adam87inSA
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:20a, 1/26/23
AG
ESPN win predictor % as of this morning for rest of schedule:
Vandy 87.6
@Arky 29.8
UGA 88.0
Aub 65.9
@LSU 69.8
Arky 60.2
@Mizzou 51.9 (were dogs until today)
UT 26.7
@State 45.4
@OM 62.7
Bama 41.5
Reply Quote
1
TjgtAg08
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to rlb28 • 9:48a, 1/26/23
AG
rlb28 said:
I forgot that I paid $25 earlier in the year for Kenpom premium. Here are the schedule predictions and what they say are the chance of winning percentage for each game. I"ll have some other interesting stats later.

Vandy - W (78%)
@Arkansas - L (32%)
Georgia - W (79%)
Auburn - W (56%)
@LSU - W (65%)
Arkansas - W (54%)
@Missouri - L (44%)
Tennessee - L (29%)
@Miss St - L (43%)
@ Ole Miss - W (59%)
Alabama - L (32%)

The projected record would be 20-11, 12-6.

Interesting that Miss State is only 43% win percent. They have lost 8 of 9 although they are playing better.

Kenpom gives the Ags 3.4 points as homecourt advantage at Reed. That home court advantage is 82nd in Division I. Texas Tech and West Virginia get 4.6 points per home game to lead the nation. Kentucky is best in SEC at 4.2
Great stuff. Can't afford to lose all 5 of the "swing" games, IMO, and still expect to make the tournament. IMO, of @Arky, @Mizzou, Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama, we need to win at least 2 of those games.

Also, interestingly enough, I think we match up really well with Bama, Miss State, Auburn and, to a lesser degree, Tennessee. Not saying we should be picked to win those games, but I think those teams are a bit better matchups for us than the records and stats would indicate. Missouri I feel like is the exact opposite. IMO, I think that is one of the hardest games left on our schedule (due to it being on the road AND the bad matchup).
Reply Quote
1
SeattleAg05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to rlb28 • 10:12a, 1/26/23
AG
rlb28 said:
I forgot that I paid $25 earlier in the year for Kenpom premium. Here are the schedule predictions and what they say are the chance of winning percentage for each game. I"ll have some other interesting stats later.

Vandy - W (78%)
@Arkansas - L (32%)
Georgia - W (79%)
Auburn - W (56%)
@LSU - W (65%)
Arkansas - W (54%)
@Missouri - L (44%)
Tennessee - L (29%)
@Miss St - L (43%)
@ Ole Miss - W (59%)
Alabama - L (32%)

The projected record would be 20-11, 12-6.

Interesting that Miss State is only 43% win percent. They have lost 8 of 9 although they are playing better.

Kenpom gives the Ags 3.4 points as homecourt advantage at Reed. That home court advantage is 82nd in Division I. Texas Tech and West Virginia get 4.6 points per home game to lead the nation. Kentucky is best in SEC at 4.2


Thanks! Really interesting how this schedule breaks down. If it went to chalk, we'd be 11-2 headed to the final stretch likely in control of our own destiny to win the league. Then all the talk would be a scuffle down the stretch in losing 4 of the last 5.
Reply Quote
Kansas Kid
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to TjgtAg08 • 10:44a, 1/26/23
TjgtAg08 said:
rlb28 said:
I forgot that I paid $25 earlier in the year for Kenpom premium. Here are the schedule predictions and what they say are the chance of winning percentage for each game. I"ll have some other interesting stats later.

Vandy - W (78%)
@Arkansas - L (32%)
Georgia - W (79%)
Auburn - W (56%)
@LSU - W (65%)
Arkansas - W (54%)
@Missouri - L (44%)
Tennessee - L (29%)
@Miss St - L (43%)
@ Ole Miss - W (59%)
Alabama - L (32%)

The projected record would be 20-11, 12-6.

Interesting that Miss State is only 43% win percent. They have lost 8 of 9 although they are playing better.

Kenpom gives the Ags 3.4 points as homecourt advantage at Reed. That home court advantage is 82nd in Division I. Texas Tech and West Virginia get 4.6 points per home game to lead the nation. Kentucky is best in SEC at 4.2
Great stuff. Can't afford to lose all 5 of the "swing" games, IMO, and still expect to make the tournament. IMO, of @Arky, @Mizzou, Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama, we need to win at least 2 of those games.

Also, interestingly enough, I think we match up really well with Bama, Miss State, Auburn and, to a lesser degree, Tennessee. Not saying we should be picked to win those games, but I think those teams are a bit better matchups for us than the records and stats would indicate. Missouri I feel like is the exact opposite. IMO, I think that is one of the hardest games left on our schedule (due to it being on the road AND the bad matchup).

We also are likely to lose at least one of the games we are supposed to win just given this is college basketball and it is hard to win every game where you are the favorite. It makes winning at least 2 and ideally 3 of those 5 games critical to ensure March Madness will come to College Station.
Reply Quote
1
Fanatic15...Drs2B!
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:49a, 1/26/23
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/

I posted this link on another thread earlier this week - as I really like how they just don't do their brackets based on "if the season ended today" like I believe Lunardi and others do it - but instead these guys look at real time results each day and then plug in those updated results to produce multiple computer simulations of how the rest of the season is likely to go - with their brackets based on those projected results - and with probabilities included.

Just since I have found this site and been following this week - the Ags have gone from just below the cut line with a 36% chance of making the NCAAT after our Kentucky loss - to jumping up to a 9 seed with a 63% chance of going to the dance after our superb performance in beating the crap out of Auburn on their home floor. Bruce Pearl would agree, I think
Reply Quote
4
Method Man
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:52a, 1/26/23
Espn had us at a 25% chance to win yesterday.
Reply Quote
An L of an Ag
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:56a, 1/26/23
AG
(Cue Han Solo "Never tell me the odds!" gif)
Reply Quote
3
t - cam
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to rlb28 • 10:59a, 1/26/23
AG
rlb28 said:
I forgot that I paid $25 earlier in the year for Kenpom premium. Here are the schedule predictions and what they say are the chance of winning percentage for each game. I"ll have some other interesting stats later.

Vandy - W (78%)
@Arkansas - L (32%)
Georgia - W (79%)
Auburn - W (56%)
@LSU - W (65%)
Arkansas - W (54%)
@Missouri - L (44%)
Tennessee - L (29%)
@Miss St - L (43%)
@ Ole Miss - W (59%)
Alabama - L (32%)

The projected record would be 20-11, 12-6.

Interesting that Miss State is only 43% win percent. They have lost 8 of 9 although they are playing better.

Kenpom gives the Ags 3.4 points as homecourt advantage at Reed. That home court advantage is 82nd in Division I. Texas Tech and West Virginia get 4.6 points per home game to lead the nation. Kentucky is best in SEC at 4.2


It's important to remember that this data includes the non conference games. Would be interesting to see how he projected our season to play out if only considering SEC play. I think we all agree this isn't the same team from December for whatever reason.
Reply Quote
2
Fanatic15...Drs2B!
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Method Man • 11:03a, 1/26/23
Funny. I had us as 75% chance to win last night. ;-)

Seriously- it is amazing how a win like ours last night beating a top 15 team on their home court can change both the game by game projected results AND the projected results of the season and likelihood of NCAAT invitation.

Note that the computer based projected bracketology that I linked earlier shows us as going 6-5 the rest of the season to earn that 9 seed - which obviously puts us as 12-6 before the SECT.

I think we will do better than that...
Reply Quote
Fanatic15...Drs2B!
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to t - cam • 11:05a, 1/26/23
The "whatever reason" is the coaching and the players coming together and embracing the system/strategy and their roles in it - as well as good old fashioned practice with a purpose to improve.

In my opinion.
Reply Quote
rlb28
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:55p, 2/1/23
AG
Two concerning statistics that keeps getting worse are defensive steals and 3-pt FG %... The Aggies dropped down to 300th out of 350 teams at 31.5% and are 277th in steals.

Manny O, of all people, leads the team at 41% from 3 (5-12)

In the last 5 games:
Wade Taylor 6-29 (20.6%)
Tyrece Radford 9-25 (36%)
Dexter Dennis 3-16 (18.7%), and at 26% for the year. He has taken the second most threes on the team.


Reply Quote
Refresh
Page 1 of 1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.