Current Projected conference standing

2,780 Views | 17 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by BlackUnisRoll
DeangeloVickers
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AG

Using MasseyRatings.com to predict the rest of the year....this is the projected finish
We win out we could still be 2 seed!

1. Kentucky (16 - 2)
2. LSU (13 - 5)
3. Auburn (12 - 6)
4. Florida (11 - 7) Defeated S Carolina based on head-to-head record (1-0).
5. S Carolina (11 - 7) Lost to Florida based on head-to-head record (0-1).
6. Alabama (10 - 8) Defeated Miss St based on winning percentage against #2 teams [LSU] (1-1).
7. Miss St (10 - 8) Lost to Alabama based on winning percentage against #2 teams [LSU] (0-1).
8. Tennessee (9 - 9)
9. Texas A&M (8 - 10)
10. Missouri (7 - 11) Defeated Arkansas based on winning percentage against #3 teams [Auburn] (1-0).
11. Arkansas (7 - 11) Lost to Missouri based on winning percentage against #3 teams [Auburn] (0-1).
12. Ole Miss (6 - 12)
13. Georgia (5 - 13)
14. Vandy (1 - 17)



bobinator
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We're looking at probably 4 SEC teams in the tournament... what a crap year.
CapCityAg89
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bobinator said:

We're looking at probably 4 SEC teams in the tournament... what a crap year.
Good environment for a re-build though!

And if USC get's to the above 11-7, I think they're in too. 10 or 11 seed.
bobinator
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I actually don't think so (pending the SECT and what happens elsewhere obviously.) Their non-conference is almost as bad as ours. I think there's still a lot of teams between them and ending up on the right side of the bubble.

I think the best chance for a fifth team is Arkansas, but they need to do better than the projected.

I guess Alabama and Mississippi State still have a shot if like every conceivable thing were to break their way, but whoever loses their game tomorrow is probably toast.
fatdad84ag
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bobinator said:

We're looking at probably 4 SEC teams in the tournament... what a crap year.
Would you say the same thing about the ACC this year. They have Duke, Florida St and Louisville. Virginia is probably a lock but no one else is for sure. NC St just beat Duke but they could very easily lose the rest of their games and would probably put them on the wrong side of the bubble.

I just think that the non-traditional 'power conferences' are not as dominant as before. The Atlantic 10, American, Southern and Mountain West all deserve more than 1 team in the tourney, so it's not just the SEC. And the PAC 12 is better this year than they have been in a long time.
bobinator
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Yeah it's not just the SEC, the ACC is having an awful year also.

It's a banner year for the Big 10, which is probably going to get 10 and might get 11 (!) teams in the field. The Big East is also having a good year, probably going to get 6 or 7 of the 10 teams in after only having 4 last year.

The Pac-12 has been so bad that finally being decent seems good.
Hop
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Staff
AG
I know that the early season debacles really messed up our computer numbers, but I have a hard time thinking a 5-9 Arkansas team will be favored over an 8-6 A&M squad at Reed Arena.
bobinator
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Well they're 5-4 when Joe plays and he's back. They're likely favored in their next three games and we aren't favored in any of ours so I guess we'll see.
Biz Ag
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Hop said:

I know that the early season debacles really messed up our computer numbers, but I have a hard time thinking a 5-9 Arkansas team will be favored over an 8-6 A&M squad at Reed Arena.
Agreed.

How's your recovery coming along, Hop?
DCAggie13y
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Hop said:

I know that the early season debacles really messed up our computer numbers, but I have a hard time thinking a 5-9 Arkansas team will be favored over an 8-6 A&M squad at Reed Arena.


You are right. Massey projected us to lose the last 3 games as well. I dont think his formula adjusts for recent results.
Mikeyshooter
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Kenpom has us at 9-9. Underdog in every game but the odds are we at least win 1.

Proposition Joe
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Arkansas the only real surprise to me at this point -- and much of that explained with injury.
bobinator
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I'm surprised Georgia is as bad as they are.
Proposition Joe
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Eh, I think we've saw with Ben Simmons that you can have NBA lotto talent and still not be a good all-around team. Georgia was 2-16 in conference last year and will likely end up 6-12 or 7-11 this year. Not terrible -- there conference schedule was just front-loaded.
bobinator
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I just figured between their recruiting and it being Crean's second year they'd at least be decent. They might finish as a top 100 team.
wacarnolds
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Gumby said:

Hop said:

I know that the early season debacles really messed up our computer numbers, but I have a hard time thinking a 5-9 Arkansas team will be favored over an 8-6 A&M squad at Reed Arena.


You are right. Massey projected us to lose the last 3 games as well. I dont think his formula adjusts for recent results.
none of the odds makers or power rankings give much credence to recent performance. there might be a tiny adjustment, but a team that sucked for 2/3 of the year isn't going to get much credit for playing well the previous week
Pumpkinhead
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Proposition Joe said:

Arkansas the only real surprise to me at this point -- and much of that explained with injury.
https://clutchpoints.com/sec-basketball-preseason-media-poll-kentucky-wildcats-picked-as-favorite/

SEC Pre-season Media Poll Rankings
Quote:


[ol]
  • Kentucky Wildcats
  • Florida Gators
  • LSU Tigers
  • Auburn Tigers
  • Tennessee Volunteers
  • Alabama Crimson Tide
  • Mississippi State Bulldogs
  • Ole Miss Rebels
  • Georgia Bulldogs
  • South Carolina Gamecocks
  • Arkansas Razorbacks
  • Texas A&M Aggies
  • Missouri Tigers
  • Vanderbilt Commodores
  • [/ol]

    Comparing to the SEC Pre-Season Media Poll Expectations, the biggest surprises of the season thus far are:

    1) Kentucky finishing first and Vandy finishing last (okay, just kidding, the media nailed that one pretty good).

    2) Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee are notably worse than what was expected (all three of those programs are about 4 spots lower in the conference pecking order than what was expected/predicted pre-season)

    3) Texas A&M is notably better than what was expected (was predicted to finish #12th and is currently sitting at #6 and will finish no worse than 9th even if losing out)

    The media picked Kentucky, Florida, LSU, and Auburn to be the top-4 teams, and that is still an accurate prediction 14 games in with 4 to go. Those are the current top-4 teams in the conference.

    The media picked Arkansas, A&M, Missouri, and Vandy to be the bottom-4 teams, and 2 of those 4 teams are still fulfilling their 'worst four in conference' destiny. Vandy and Arkansas. Mizzou is just barely hanging outside the bottom four but may still finish there, and A&M is guaranteed now to not finish that low.

    DTP02
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    AG
    Good analysis.
    BlackUnisRoll
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    Sure wish the Ags had the last 2-3 minutes back of the LSU game at Reed. An Aggie win there would certainly paint a different picture in standings and perception of this Aggie basketball team.
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