Most "important" game of the year?

2,965 Views | 18 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Little Rock Ag
txag72
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AG
With such low expectations for the year, every win from here is gravy, but we've put ourselves in position to possibly have a chance at something more than just a season to be proud of "considering". Realistically, that would be an NIT invite and possibly winning a couple of games in it.

I'm not giving up on this bunch that it's not possible. But the only way it's possible is for us to win Saturday.

Beat the hell outta Mississippi State.
bobinator
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AG
It's the most important one because it's the next one, but if I could only pick one more game for us to win it would be Tuesday's game against Kentucky.
txag72
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AG
What's the chance of beating Kentucky if we lose this one? I just think winning this one makes the other conceivable. Otherwise............
bobinator
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I'm just not sure what "most important" means. This one is the most important because it's next, but if you swapped out any of our remaining games for this one it would also be true, and we probably need several of them to even have a chance at the NIT.
expresswrittenconsent
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I think this one is 'most' important and Kentucky is most 'important', and if we can win them it would mean the most.
bobinator
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AG
oh, now I get it
Pumpkinhead
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AG
bobinator said:

I'm just not sure what "most important" means. This one is the most important because it's next, but if you swapped out any of our remaining games for this one it would also be true, and we probably need several of them to even have a chance at the NIT.
Currently 126th in the NET, I'm skeptical, for example, a 9-9 SEC record would be enough (even though we'd be mostly thrilled with that record for this team). Though presumably our NET will improve a bit no matter what over the next 5 games because of the schedule.

I'm thinking this team probably needs to go at least 10-8 for a legit chance at an NIT invite.
bobinator
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Yeah... part of me thinks if we were to like win out we'd have an outside shot at an at-large NCAA bid and part of me thinks even that might not be enough to get us in the NIT. It's not going to happen, but even just thinking hypothetically I'm not really sure what I think we'd need to do.
expresswrittenconsent
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Texas was our most important game.
Method Man
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expresswrittenconsent said:

Texas was our most important game.


Oh? I totally forgot about that game.
CapCityAg89
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AG
I'd like to think we can win tomorrow but I really don't think we have much chance against another defense/hustle team. They all have better offense than us which just kills us. I DO like us against teams like LSU and Arkie who hang on offense and kinda nod at defense.
Pumpkinhead
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CapCityAg89 said:

I'd like to think we can win tomorrow but I really don't think we have much chance against another defense/hustle team. They all have better offense than us which just kills us. I DO like us against teams like LSU and Arkie who hang on offense and kinda nod at defense.
Believe it or not, Arkansas has the best rated defensive efficiency in the SEC right now. Their offense took a big hit though losing Joe.

Now LSU's defense on the other hand does seem to be pretty 'soft'. Only Vandy has worse defensive numbers than LSU in the SEC.

Miss State's defensive efficiency numbers are mediocre and no where close to South Carolina. South Carolina's defense ranking is not elite but pretty good.

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (Current National rankings of SEC teams on Kenpom)

Arkansas (#27)
South Carolina (#40)
Tennessee (#42)
Kentucky (#54)
Auburn (#64)
Ole Miss (#65)
Florida (#67)
Texas A&M (#78)
Alabama (#92)
Missouri (#103)
Miss State (#110)
Georgia (#117)
LSU (#184)
Vanderbilt (#211)

The problem facing Miss State is stopping them when they have the ball. They are #21 nationally on Kenpom in adjusted offensive efficiency. Very efficient scoring team.
txag72
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AG
For sure, we don't have a chance if we lose this game. Hence, "most important".
Method Man
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I've watched them play. They're pretty good at defense.
Pumpkinhead
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AG
Method Man said:

I've watched them play. They're pretty good at defense.
Nah, 87 points scored on that #117 ranked Kenpom defense. Bulldogs played defense that pretty much met the expectations of that ranking.

Never doubt Kenpom again, Method. Never.
Muy
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AG
bobinator said:

Yeah... part of me thinks if we were to like win out we'd have an outside shot at an at-large NCAA bid and part of me thinks even that might not be enough to get us in the NIT. It's not going to happen, but even just thinking hypothetically I'm not really sure what I think we'd need to do.


How could winning out NOT get us in the dance? Seems that how teams play now knocks teams out, but it doesn't help get you in.
Method Man
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Pumpkinhead said:

Method Man said:

I've watched them play. They're pretty good at defense.
Nah, 87 points scored on that #117 ranked Kenpom defense. Bulldogs played defense that pretty much met the expectations of that ranking.

Never doubt Kenpom again, Method. Never.


PatAg
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We were just so awful in the non-conference, its hard to think what we need from SEC play regarding NIT. With a normal off season, our conference play so far would have us near the bubble for the NCAA tourney
PatAg
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the team has delivered a few games in a row, in front of growing crowds. If they can do it again against Kentucky (just being in the game, give the students something to be excited about) it would be huge for the growth of the atmosphere
Little Rock Ag
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AG
PatAg said:

the team has delivered a few games in a row, in front of growing crowds. If they can do it again against Kentucky (just being in the game, give the students something to be excited about) it would be huge for the growth of the atmosphere
Well, it OUGHT to be full for Kentucky, so we need to take advantage of the moment. A win would be unbelievable, but even keeping it a game in the last 5 minutes would be a positive step.
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