Can we stay out of the bottom 4?

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PJYoung
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2:13p, 2/14/20
AG
http://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=mbb

The only outcome I changed was beating Arkansas and it spit us out as the 11 seed, Ole Miss as the 10.
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Pumpkinhead
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2:27p, 2/14/20
AG
Need 2 more SEC wins out of these last 7 games to get to 7-11 to *probably* stay out of bottom four, unless both Ole Miss & Vols get to at least 8 (we win head-to-head vs. them). Best chances to get those 2 wins are Georgia tomorrow in Reed and the final game vs. Arkansas at Reed.

Ask again after Georgia tomorrow. If we lose to Georgia, I say No, we will finish in bottom four.
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bobinator
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 2:33p, 2/14/20
AG
Yeah, gotta get Georgia tomorrow otherwise it gets tough.
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Bluecat_Aggie94
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2:45p, 2/14/20
AG
I'm done predicting this team's record. Every time I think they are done... they win one I wasn't expecting. Then I decide they are getting pretty good, and they take it on the chin.

Don't get me wrong, they have exceeded expectations. They are working hard. The future under Buzz is bright. But based on results this far, I have no clue where they end up.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 3:30p, 2/14/20
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
Need 2 more SEC wins out of these last 7 games to get to 7-11 to *probably* stay out of bottom four, unless both Ole Miss get to at least 8 (we win head-to-head vs. them). Best chances to get those 2 wins are Georgia tomorrow in Reed and the final game vs. Arkansas at Reed.

Ask again after Georgia tomorrow. If we lose to Georgia, I say No, we will finish in bottom four.

So I dunno if you went to that website but we are predicted to beat Georgia on there (Sagarin) and lose to Arkansas.

I switched up the Arkansas loss to a win and Sagarin says we would still finish 11th.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to PJYoung • 3:35p, 2/14/20
AG
Yeah, I saw that. We don't get to 7 wins, we are absolutely in bottom 4.

If we do get to 7 wins, I'd like our chances to stay out of bottom 4 but no guarantee.

Get to 8 wins, we'd definitely be out of bottom 4.
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bobinator
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In reply to PJYoung • 3:44p, 2/14/20
AG
Yeah, if we only beat Georgia and Arkansas then we'll need Ole Miss to drop a game somewhere.

The good news for us is we'd win the tiebreaks with Tennessee or Ole Miss.
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bobinator
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4:05p, 2/14/20
AG
Been looking at this for a bit and basically if we beat Arkansas we would win any tiebreak scenario involving us, Ole Miss, Arkansas and/or Tennessee other than a straight head to head with Arkansas.
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Padre_Island_Ag
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4:35p, 2/14/20
AG
Quote:
Can we stay out of the bottom 4?

Better question:

Will we set a new NCAA season record for the most missed shots at TWO FEET or less???


Let's go Brandon!


Soli Deo Gloria
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Method Man
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11:36p, 2/14/20
Not a better question
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Pumpkinhead
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8:04a, 2/15/20
AG
I have it in my head that avoiding finishing in the bottom-4 is important because the bottom 4 are excluded from the Big 12/SEC challenge in succeeding years. Is that true?
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bobinator
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8:08a, 2/15/20
AG
No, we were in the bottom four last year
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BeeringAintEasy
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5:28p, 2/15/20
AG
Our schedule down the stretch is pretty brutal. Need to win one of the next two vs Alabama and Mississippi State.
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zooguy96
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5:41p, 2/15/20
We should be able to win one of Alabama or State and Arky at home. Arky hasn't played well lately.
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txag72
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7:04p, 2/15/20
AG
I posted this earlier:

"Hmmm, if we can become just a bit more consistent toward the "good Aggie team", we'll be favored against Georgia and Miss. St. at home. Win those and I'd almost guarantee one more road win (Bama/SC). Steal one with a big upset (Arkansas at home), and we're 9-9. That's the ultimate best, but it's not THAT far fetched."

Not predicting it, but we got the win against Georgia, took the loss at SC. We could get to 9-9 with a Win at home against Miss. St, Win at Bama, and Win at home against Arkansas. We never play 2 halves of good basketball per game, or even per 2 games sometimes, but if..............

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Pumpkinhead
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10:26a, 2/16/20
AG
Right before conference play began, I predicted 6-12. The win vs. Oregon State was enough to convince me this team wasn't near as bad as the 'Worst Team Since Melvin' stink it had all over it on the flight home from that Orlando tournament.

Then after that win @ Tennessee, which really surprised me, I nudged it up to 7-11 guess.

I am still sticking with 7-11. Next 5 games are pretty brutal, the 'money ball' chance to get that 7th win does seem to be the last game in Reed vs a sinking Hogs team.

Now If they pull off another win starting with any of the next 5 before getting to Arky, then I will immediately jump on the 8-10 Bandwagon.
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rwtxag83
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1:30p, 2/16/20
AG
9-9 with Ws over Bama, MSU, and Arky.

Tighten it up Aggies and play it the way Buzz says and we can do it!
Greater love hath no man than this....
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gig them
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10:03a, 2/17/20
AG
I hate playing in the Wednesday night clown show that kicks off the SEC Tournament. Avoiding it has been my season-long goal from day one.

If we avoid the bottom four, I would consider it a significant accomplishment and one of the best coaching jobs in the SEC.
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SECTAMU#1
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10:53a, 2/17/20
Vanderbilt is currently 1-11 in conference and Georgia is 2-10, so my guess is those two will remain at he bottom.
Ole Miss, Missouri and Arkansas are all 4-8 in conference and are our main competition for the other bottom four spots.

Our schedule is tough down the stretch, but I like our chances to not be in the bottom four.
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CapCityAg89
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5:58p, 2/17/20
AG
BTW, with the Georgia win, all we need to do is beat Arkansas at home to end the year (all other predictions being the same) and we avoid the bottom 5. Arkie without Joe is eminently beatable at home.
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CapCityAg89
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6:04p, 2/17/20
AG
And when I go through and make actual picks (mine) for those games, I get a 9 seed (Arkie is the win I predict) ...

1. Auburn (14 - 4) Defeated S Carolina and Kentucky based on round-robin record (2-1).
2. S Carolina (14 - 4) Defeated Kentucky and lost to Auburn based on round-robin record (1-1).
3. Kentucky (14 - 4) Lost to Auburn and S Carolina based on round-robin record (1-2).
4. Florida (13 - 5) Defeated LSU based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Auburn] (1-0).
5. LSU (13 - 5) Lost to Florida based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Auburn] (0-1).
6. Miss St (11 - 7)
7. Alabama (9 - 9)
8. Ole Miss (8 - 10)
9. Texas A&M (7 - 11) Defeated Tennessee based on head-to-head record (1-0).
10. Tennessee (7 - 11) Lost to Texas A&M based on head-to-head record (0-1).
11. Arkansas (6 - 12)
12. Missouri (5 - 13)
13. Georgia (4 - 14)
14. Vandy (1 - 17)

Based on this, I'd think the SEC sends 6 (barring a weird SECT) to the NCAAT.
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halfastros81
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6:51p, 2/17/20
AG
9-9 in conference play would be an absolute coup. Don't see it happening but ya never know .
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to CapCityAg89 • 8:48p, 2/17/20
AG
CapCityAg89 said:
BTW, with the Georgia win, all we need to do is beat Arkansas at home to end the year (all other predictions being the same) and we avoid the bottom 5. Arkie without Joe is eminently beatable at home.
Apparently Joe is back practicing for Arkansas and they are optimistic will return before end of the season. Looks like decent chance Arkansas will have Joe when they come to Reed.
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CapCityAg89
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 9:24a, 2/18/20
AG
Of course. Man. I hate our luck. Good for the kid I guess.
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Know Your Enemy
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7:58p, 2/19/20
AG
Hell, can we stay out of the bottom 8?
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Pumpkinhead
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8:15p, 2/19/20
AG
Worse case 7-11 now with 5 games left to get at least a win #8!

And we just dealt a really bad blow to the slim NCAA bubble chance that Bama had.
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wacarnolds
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 8:23p, 2/19/20
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
And we just dealt a really bad blow to the slim NCAA bubble chance that Bama had.

Our postseason will be a month of trying to make other teams' postseason positioning worse
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Pumpkinhead
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6:54p, 2/22/20
AG
We can now not worry about finishing in the bottom 4. SEC Win #8 today guaranteed a day off first day of SEC tournament, regardless of what happens these last 4 games.

The SEC tournament seed predictor says if we lose out and the favorites win all other games, we'll actually be the 8th seed in the SEC tournament, playing 9th seed Bama.
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Adam87inSA
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 6:58p, 2/22/20
AG
Meaning going 1-3, finishing w a win over Arky in Reed?
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Pumpkinhead
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7:01p, 2/22/20
AG
If we go 0-4 and all the other games go to the favorite, we will be #8th seed.

If hypothetically we were to go 1-3 beating Arkansas in Reed, all other favorites winning, we'd actually jump to the #7th seed per that SEC tournament predictor playing #10 Mizzou team, and then if we won that, playing LSU.

I'd love that latter scenario, playing Mizzou on Thursday with a chance to play LSU on Friday. Let's hope the Ags can get to at least a 9-9 SEC record to put a 7th seed spot into play.

The crappy thing about #8/9 seed spot of course, is even if you win that game, then you immediately are going to run into #1 seed Kentucky on Friday. So be nice if we could scratch and claw to the #7th spot or better.
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Seven Costanza
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8:28p, 2/22/20
AG
Time to change the thread title to "Can they keep us out of the Top 4?"
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PJYoung
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10:21p, 3/3/20
Pumpkinhead
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8:33p, 3/4/20
AG
Using the projection tool thing or in the OP of this thread, with the win @Auburn tonight it looks like we have locked up no worse than the 8 seed in the SEC tournament, even if lose to Arky.

Beat Arky to finish 10-8, then we'd get the 7-seed and actually have to play Arky again in the first game, who would be the 10-seed.
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dcaggie04
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 8:38p, 3/4/20
AG
There is a situation where we could be the 6 seed.
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fatdad84ag
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In reply to dcaggie04 • 8:39p, 3/4/20
AG
dcaggie04 said:
There is a situation where we could be the 6 seed.
Win and pull for Ole Miss to knock off State!!! Long shot but so is what we've already pulled off this year.
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