As of this post, the Ags are 8-6 overall, 2-1 in SEC, with 15 SEC games plus Okie Lite +SECT left to go. (We are 109 in the Sagarin)

With at least 17 games left, what do we need to land an NIT bid?

Let's say we finish 7-11 in SEC, beat OK St, and go 1-1 in SECT. That would be 15-17. Do they allow sub-.500 overall teams in?

Remaining schedule (w/ Sagarin rank as of 1/12/20)
LSU (27)
USCe (104)
@Mizz (61)
Okie Lite (66)
@UT (50)
@UGA (58)
Mizz (61)
@USCe (104)
UF (40)
UGA (58)
@Bama (47)
Clanga (74)
UK (12)
@LSU (27)
@Aub (7)
Arkie (26)
SECT

For NIT, I think we should target .500 in conference play.
Isn't that what we did in BCG's first year?

aggiejohn said:

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For NIT, I think we should target .500 in conference play.
Isn't that what we did in BCG's first year?

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It's harder to get into the NIT now, because they now give automatic bids to any conference champs that didn't get a bid to the NCAA tourney. Also, we actually won 20 games in BCG's first season. I would think we need a minimum of 10 conference wins just to get considered for the NIT.

We beat LS&U, raise those expectations.

That's right, my bad. Wasn't thinking.

Adam87inSA said:

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As of this post, the Ags are 9-7 overall, 2-1 in SEC, with 15 SEC games plus Okie Lite +SECT left to go. (We are 109 in the Sagarin)

With at least 17 games left, what do we need to land an NIT bid?

Let's say we finish 7-11 in SEC, beat OK St, and go 1-1 in SECT. That would be 16-18. Do they allow sub-.500 overall teams in?

Remaining schedule:
LSU
USCe
@Mizz
Okie Lite
@UT
@UGA
Mizz
@USCe
UF
UGA
@Bama
Clanga
UK
@LSU
@Aub
Arkie
SECT

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Pretty sure we are 8-6 right now.

With teams who are reg season conf champs left out of NCAAT being autobids to NIT, sounds to me like we need to get to 17 wins at a minimum.

.500 overall record after the SEC tourney

You are correct and i will amend original post accordingly

Barring any injuries, I am going to go on record and say this team sneaks in the NCAA tourney ... the team I saw against Vanderbilt was a NCAA tourney team. This post might seem crazy especially since I saw them in person get beat by a very average Texas team. They looked horrible; worst than horrible. But Buzz is a wizard and they look completely different today!

BCG got to the NIT with an 8-8 conference record and 21 wins. Not feeling confident we can do it, but I'm optimistic.

This team reminds me so much of BCG's team in 2005-2006. Bad a-- defense and timely offense. My first time getting season tickets and I was hooked. This could be the start of something incredible. The best part is I believe we will have Buzz much longer than 3 years. I believe he's found his home.

czar_iv said:

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Barring any injuries, I am going to go on record and say this team sneaks in the NCAA tourney ... the team I saw against Vanderbilt was a NCAA tourney team. This post might seem crazy especially since I saw them in person get beat by a very average Texas team. They looked horrible; worst than horrible. But Buzz is a wizard and they look completely different today!

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As great as it would be, this team would have to go at least 12-6 in conference to be even considered. Probably even 13-5. With our bad non-con losses and the SEC being down this team would have to be pretty special in conference. South Carolina placed 4th in the conference last year at 11-7 and didn't even make NIT

LawHall88 said:

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aggiejohn said:

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For NIT, I think we should target .500 in conference play.
Isn't that what we did in BCG's first year?

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It's harder to get into the NIT now, because they now give automatic bids to any conference champs that didn't get a bid to the NCAA tourney. Also, we actually won 20 games in BCG's first season. I would think we need a minimum of 10 conference wins just to get considered for the NIT.

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We didn't just sneak into the NIT in 2015. We did so w a decent seeding. Hosted the 1st and 3rd rounds.
I think we'd need to get to 20 wins to host. I think we can get in a less than 20 wins.

Butler hosted the 4/5 game in the TCU regional last year's NIT. They went 7-11 in the Big East.
They were beaten in that game by Nebraska, who went 6-14(!!!) in B1G play and finished 13th in that league.
Alabama got into last year's NIT w and 8-10 SEC finish and less than 20 wins.

czar_iv said:

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Barring any injuries, I am going to go on record and say this team sneaks in the NCAA tourney ... the team I saw against Vanderbilt was a NCAA tourney team. This post might seem crazy especially since I saw them in person get beat by a very average Texas team. They looked horrible; worst than horrible. But Buzz is a wizard and they look completely different today!

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We lost to Fairfield, a Temple squad who is falling apart, a crappy Texas team and have no "good" wins. We've beaten two of the worst teams in the SEC. We will have to win a ton more games and a few will have to be of the AU or UK variety. Not that I'm not pleased with the steady improvement, but I'm a bit realistic with post season expectations. NIT would exceed my expectations. NCAA won't even be on our radar.

109 in the Sagarin is likely the highest of all the computational rankings right now. I know we are something like 128 in the NET and 149 in KenPom.

We'll need to get to 19-20 wins to be in the conversation IMO. The SOS isn't good AND we've lost to several of those teams.

I also wore those shirts proudly (I bought one of each color; I went to both games TAMU hosted).

In fact, if I remember correctly, the sections for Clemson were coordinated to alternate white/maroon - it was a great look!

BCG loaded non-conf with winnable games. The Oregon State win and roughly 9-9 in conference might be enough in part because we were 6-5 OOC and played one other notable team. I won't say 15-15 makes it likely. Just that it is possible especially with more good wins in conf. Winning the BDF challenge against Oklahoma State for a 16-14 season would help a lot.

Even if we continue this run to about a .500 conference record (which frankly would be amazing given our start), I think that Fairfield? loss could be killer. Really bad loss.

Aston04 said:

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Even if we continue this run to about a .500 conference record (which frankly would be amazing given our start), I think that Fairfield? loss could be killer. Really bad loss.

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Isn't referring to something, anything as "killer " a bit melodramatic in the context of an NIT bid?

I mean I am really encouraged by what I've seen and am excited about the rest of the season... for its own sake.

But personally there is no scenario in which I will feel any anxiety, excitement or disappointment by any outcome on NIT selection day.

Given our start to this season and having a new coach, how do y'all feel about a tournament like the CBI if it were to become the best option to keep getting games in?

Gap said:

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Given our start to this season and having a new coach, how do y'all feel about a tournament like the CBI if it were to become the best option to keep getting games in?

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This is a good question.

Personally... I still wouldn't like it. Especially if we were one of only 1-2 P5 teams who accepted the bid. Just seems like you're setting yourself up for failure, as anything other than taking the 'ship will likely mean a loss to a much smaller program.

Gap said:

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Given our start to this season and having a new coach, how do y'all feel about a tournament like the CBI if it were to become the best option to keep getting games in?

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Play as many games as possible before you end this season. Who cares if it's the CBI? Sure I'd rather be in the NIT but the more time Buzz gets to work with these guys the better it will be for the future.

Yeah I don't see Buzz wanting to pay to play in the CBI.

Doesn't the NIT have a rule from giving bids to teams with sub .500 overall record?

Just keep winning!

GrayMatter said:

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Yeah I don't see Buzz wanting to pay to play in the CBI.

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Why not? It doesn't come out of his pocket.

GrayMatter said:

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Yeah I don't see Buzz wanting to pay to play in the CBI.

Doesn't the NIT have a rule from giving bids to teams with sub .500 overall record?

Just keep winning!

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Agreed re CBI. And yes, it appears that the NIT may have that rule (Butler was 16-16 after the Big East tourney and got in).

That pretty much means we need to get to 16 wins by the time the SECT is done, and yes that means the Fairfield loss was damaging. It would be less daunting to have to go 7-11 the rest of the way rather than 8-10.

Again, we are 8-6, 2-1 in SEC. 15 SEC games left plus OSU plus SECT. Gotta beat OSU here. Then 6-9 in remaining SEC games plus 1-1 in SECT gets us to 16-16 overall and gives us at least a shot at an invite to NIT.

So all games prior to the final round are single elimination and on home courts of generally the larger school. $50K entry fee. Finals has been best of three recently.

Decent format. The season conference champions getting NIT invites probably leaves some interesting up and comers though clearly NOT exciting matchups. I think in the first year it's an opportunity. I'd prefer to never return after that...

Yeah, there's probably not going to be any sneaking into the NCAA Tournament. We're either going to kick the door in by going like 13-5 in the SEC or we're going to have to win the SEC tournament.

That said, for the NIT and the remote NCAA chances, there are some things that might help us. The committees have tended to not focus much on losses in early season tournaments, and we have a first year coach, so if we close strong you're going to have a pretty good narrative that this team is a lot better at the end of the year than they were in the beginning.

But this next stretch of games is going to be interesting. We caught Vandy at the absolute best time imaginable and they suck anyway, but with three of our next four at home maybe we can string a few more wins together and then maybe we'll start talking specifics for the NIT.

Revisiting the remaining schedule:
LSU (27) << a reach
USCe (104) << must win
@Mizz (61) << steal-able
Okie Lite (66) << must win
@UT (50) << steal-able
@UGA (58) << steal-able
Mizz (61) << must win
@USCe (104) << must win
UF (40) << steal-able
UGA (58) << must win
@Bama (47) << steal-able
Clanga (74) << must win
UK (12) << pipe dream
@LSU (27) << pipe dream
@Aub (7) << pipe dream
Arkie (26) << a reach

To win seven more regular season games, the "easiest" are the six marked "must win". And we would very likely only be favored today in the home game vs USCe and not the other five.

There are six more games which are "steal-able". Two remaining games are "a reach" and three are a "pipe dream". Going 6-0 in "must win" games (the odds are stacked against us to do this) would leave us needing to go 1-5 in "steal-able" games. Every loss from the "must win" category makes the task tougher.

Qualifying for the NIT would be a tremendous accomplishment.

Waiting patiently for this conversation to turn into 'would you rather win the CBI than one and done in the NIT'?