2019 bigs

5,673 Views | 34 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Method Man
suburban cowboy
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Blackshear didn't happen. We need at least one bc Nebo can't do it alone.

Thoughts?
Know Your Enemy
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We are going to play a lot of small ball this season. Don't have much choice at this point.
Pumpkinhead
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suburban cowboy said:

Blackshear didn't happen. We need at least one bc Nebo can't do it alone.

Thoughts?
At this point, probably, Nebo will essentially be doing it alone.
phorizt
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We had to hire Brian Davis just to have someone to guard Nebo in practice.
bobinator
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what if put a smaller player on top of another player's shoulders but get them an extra big jersey so the refs don't notice?
LawHall88
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bobinator said:

what if put a smaller player on top of another player's shoulders but get them an extra big jersey so the refs don't notice?
Should have held on to Sahvir.
gig them
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phorizt said:

We had to hire Brian Davis just to have someone to guard Nebo in practice.

I joked about this at first, and then it slowly dawned on me that it might not be a joke.
Method Man
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Mods!???!
Tobias Funke
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Method Man said:

Mods!???!


What's your problem now?
BrandoC
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You will only go so far when you play the likes of Kentucky, Florida, LSU, etc. when you do not have a big. They will pound your arse down low no matter how good of a shooting team you are.
Method Man
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Tobias Funke said:

Method Man said:

Mods!???!


What's your problem now?


Nothing haha. Just bored. Hoping a mod would say "oh the Ags are trying to pick up the tallest Costa Rican while on their trip."
Tobias Funke
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Method Man said:

Tobias Funke said:

Method Man said:

Mods!???!


What's your problem now?


Nothing haha. Just bored. Hoping a mod would say "oh the Ags are trying to pick up the tallest Costa Rican while on their trip."
miller0926
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Looking at Va Tech's roster from last year, they had 8 players who logged significant playing time.

After Blackshear (6'10"), their next "biggest" player to play was 6'6".

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/259

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%9319_Virginia_Tech_Hokies_men%27s_basketball_team#Roster
Method Man
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That makes me feel better.
Serious Lee
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it can be done. we made the tourney with walkup at the 4 and loubeau at the 5. just need flagg to be as good as middleton or starks as good as justin robinson.
phorizt
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There's just no margin for error or injury or foul trouble when you only have 1 big on the roster. It can certainly be done.
gig them
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Nebo showed he can protect the rim at an elite level without committing fouls

Flagg showed an impressive capacity to rebound very well as a small 4

As long as those guys do that literally every game without foul trouble or any nagging injuires, well be fine

That's all we need
bobinator
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A few of the new guys are fairly tall also.

Obviously we're not going to be a pound it inside, back-to-the-basket kind of team next year, but I don't think the lack of real big guys is going to be that big of a deal.

We'll have to play faster when Nebo is on the bench, but like y'all said Flagg is a really good rebounder for his size anyway.

I imagine next year we're going to be a lot like the team that Kennedy and company were acting like we were going to be last year. Going to be a lot of three point shots in our future, hopefully much better ones than last year.
gig them
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bobinator said:

Going to be a lot of three point shots in our future, hopefully much better ones than last year.
Chandler finished the year 7-13, and Flagg shot a decent percentage in SEC play (37.3%, good for 23rd out of 57 qualifying SEC players). If they can continue that trajectory, that's definitely something.

But I have to say I'm not terribly optimistic if our plan is for the 329th ranked outside shooting team in the nation to just... get better at shooting. Especially after losing the best statistical shooter on the roster.

We'd need the new guys to come in and start dropping bombs, along with a blood oath from Starks to never shoot a three again.
greg.w.h
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We are very likely to dance. Not guaranteed. Just very likely.

That will be a great start and to be honest an NIT trip isn't a terrible start.
bobinator
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I'm a lot more optimistic about Starks' shooting. Everyone, but he in particular because of how much of the ball he had, took a ton of bad threes. Flagg took a bunch of bad threes also, especially early in the year.

So it's not so much that we need to get better at the actual act of shooting the ball, but if we're a lot better at floor spacing and creating open shots then I think our percentages will go up significantly. Plus that would open up the floor quite a bit for guys like Starks and Mitchell, which should make those two more effective at going to the basket, which should create even more open threes.

This isn't really meant for you, but just a general thought, I think too often people get caught up looking at statistics that aren't really independent of each other. Offensive basketball and defensive football are similar in that the stats are all dependent on each other. You see this in college football a lot when the announcers are like 'well they're 120th against the run, but rank in the top 20 against the pass!.' Well yeah, that's because nobody bothers to pass on them if you can run for 7 yards a play.

The fundamental problem with our offense last year (and really for most of the Kennedy era) is that we could NEVER create space on offense. So if you can't create space, it's hard to move the ball into good spots for easy baskets (we had one of the lowest assist percentages in the country). No space means more contested shots and shots from further out than we would like to take them.
Proposition Joe
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It's less spacing and more recruiting/coaching/adjusting-fundamentals.

We weren't missing 3's the last few seasons because of spacing. We were missing wide open looks.

That means either we missed something in recruiting, or we haven't been able to adjust these players shots to be more consistent fundamentally.
gig them
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Agreed on almost all points... but Starks wasn't just bad from the outside, he was a statistical abomination. And even last year (when his shot selection was much better), he was nothing special from the outside.

Let's think about it from the other side: If I'm the opposing coach, what do I not want Starks to do? I don't want him driving to pass, and I don't want him taking those 15 footers in rhythm. If I'm the opposing coach, a Starks three is just about the best possible outcome when the ball is in his hands.

I really do think there's an all-conference version of Starks lurking just beneath the surface, but we won't see it by way of the three point line.
bobinator
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I think the spacing still has a lot to do with it.

Guys get used to having to rush shots, or take step backs, or try and shoot at higher angles to get it up over defenders and whatever else, so then their fundamentals are off and they also miss wide open looks. Plus at some point confidence becomes an issue.

I'm not saying Starks is going to become a great three point shooter or even a really good one, but I think with the right mentality he could at least be good enough that you have to guard him out there which is really all he needs.
Proposition Joe
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I don't disagree that A) we need better spacing and B) Starks (and others) shot should improve under new coaching... I just don't think the spacing was the major factor in our 3-point woes.

College basketball doesn't have the public analytics available for it (yet), but our uncontested 3-point percentage was far below average as well.

Now I think the lack of an offense that we ran over Kennedy's tenure probably contributed to players not ever being in a good rhythm for a 3 (where they knew what to expect and when rather than "oh crap I'm open"), but the balls we chunked up with a second or two on the shot-clock and/or a defender in our face wasn't the big deficiency we had from 3. We simply could not hit wide open looks.

That's either a talent problem or a fundamentals problem.
bobinator
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Certainly spacing wasn't our only problem. I just think it was the underlying problem with our entire offense.

Though even that I guess is a symptom of our bigger problem which was just bad all around fundamentals.

But the thing is one or two shots a game is the difference between a good three point shooting team and a horrible one, so those shot clock/contested/ill-advised etc threes are a big difference maker. Especially for Starks.

And really, Starks was almost the whole problem. Even if you just adjust Starks up to 33%, we'd jump almost 75 spots in the rankings.

Hell even if you just take out Collins we'd jump from 329 to about 285.
Tango_Mike
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Sometime around the Ole Miss game I questioned what role Flagg played in the offense. After that, he shot better than 41% from 3 and averaged 18/7 per 40 minutes. Flagg + Mitchell is a solid core for a 8-10 seed
gig them
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I loved what Flagg became down the stretch.

If you can stick a three, D up, and rebound above your height; you can find a home in the NBA.
bobinator
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Add in Nebo and a hopefully-well-coached Starks and that's a solid four. That's why I think if any of the new guys are any good at all we could be pretty good next year.
wacarnolds
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***extremely anecdotal evidence alert***

Antoine Wright
3P% under Melvin: 34%
3P% under BCG: 48%

Acie Law
3P% under Melvin: 22%
3P% under BCG: 38%

Bobby Leach
3P% under Melvin: 31%
3P% under BCG: 49%
wacarnolds
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suburban cowboy said:

We need at least one bc Nebo can't do it alone.

Thoughts?
Agree
bobinator
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Edit: bad at math.
Proposition Joe
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bobinator said:

bobinator said:

Hell even if you just take out Collins (2 of 30!!!!) and leave Starks where he was we'd have moved up to about #180.
By the way this isn't an exaggeration or anything, I did the math on this earlier and it blew my mind.

Which I feel kind of supports my case on that our problem wasn't a spacing issue (when it comes to our 3-point percentage).

Now, I think we all know Collins isn't exactly the guy that any kind of statistical case should be derived from -- but we know he was getting wide open looks, there was no spacing issue with him whatsoever, he was given carte blanche by the defense.

Yet over the last 3 seasons he was averaging double digits in minutes and shot 83 3-pointers... Making just 15 of them.

I refuse to believe that we recruited a kid to a major conference program that simply can't shoot, so to me it shows that we didn't have the coaches that could help a kid re-gain lost fundamentals.
bobinator
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I did edit those numbers a bit, I mixed up my columns earlier.

But I don't think with better offensive spacing we're going to suddenly be the best three point shooting team in the country or anything. I just think our percentages will go up fairly significantly even just from playing some kind of cohesive offensive basketball. I was responding to the "I'm not terribly optimistic if our plan is for the 329th ranked outside shooting team in the nation to just... get better at shooting" post.

I see plenty of reasons why I think we could get way better at shooting threes even with some of the same people. For Collins, you're absolutely right. That wasn't a spacing problem at all. Maybe it was a confidence thing or who knows.

But for Starks I think the spacing is a huge thing. Not only for his own shot, but in creating other people's shots. And for Flagg and Mitchell the spacing is a big thing so they can get more shots up. With better spacing, Starks would theoretically take a lot fewer threes and Mitchell and Flagg would probably take quite a few more. That alone would make a massive difference in our percentages as a team.

But you're right that there were other issues as well, I just see our bad offensive fundamentals as the foundation of the problem and the easiest example to see (without being able to watch us practice) is how bad we were at creating space.
Proposition Joe
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Yeah, I agree we should be better and that bad offensive fundamentals (including spacing) were to blame.

Ultimately the most blunt yet best way to say it? We have a coach that can improve his players and adapt his scheme during play.

Collins was the perfect example of the Billy Kennedy square peg in round hole... Square couldn't be whittled into a round shape with coaching, nor was the square used in situations with a square hole. We just kept pounding what wasn't working.
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