NBA's One-And-Done Rule Looking Likely Gone Starting 2021 Draft

2,935 Views | 38 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by greg.w.h
Pumpkinhead
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Silver spoke again on this topic yesterday.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2018/07/10/adam-silver-nba-one-and-done/773991002/


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The NBA's one-and-done rule is unofficially done.
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Commissioner Adam Silver made it clear on Tuesday that there is growing support for a change that would allow players to enter the league at the age of 18 rather than require them to play one year of college basketball or internationally. Such a move would have to be collectively bargained with the National Basketball Players Association, but Silver's tone on this topic was the strongest sign yet that it's only a matter of time.

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"My personal view is that we're ready to make that change," Silver said after the conclusion of the latest round of owners' meetings. "It won't come immediately, butwhen I weighed the pros and cons (and) given that (former Secretary of State) Condoleezza Rice and her (NCAA) commission has recommended to the NBA that those one-and-done players now come directly into the league and, in essence, the college community is saying 'We do not want those players anymore,' I mean that sort of tips the scale in my mind that we should be taking a serious look at lowering our age to 18."


mallen
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What will Kentucky do?
RG20
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Might as well just say kids can enter right out of high school. I mean I don't understand having the age limit. What if a kid is not 18, is he going to have to go play a year in college and wait till next year to enter draft? How would that fix the issue?
greg.w.h
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The 18 age limit is to allow them to deal with legal adults that can execute their own contracts (with agency and legal representation in most cases.). Bonus points if they have an equivalent of a high school diploma/education.

They really had issues with younger players just not having the maturity to handle themselves.
Pumpkinhead
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mallen said:

What will Kentucky do?
The power schools like Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, etc. will still get the best recruits. Just from a less talented pool. Presumably you'd see a Kentucky have more multi-year players (less turnover year to year). Will be more experienced college teams because of higher mix of older players, but won't have the same pure NBA talent. No more Anthony Davis types on a Kentucky terrorizing college level competition.
bobinator
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This is good news if it happens. Gets some guys out of the college game that don't want to be there. Watching guys like Ben Simmons float their way through a season of basketball was annoying.
Belton Ag
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I'd like to see a situation similar to college baseball, where, if the player does not get drafted, the player must be three years removed from high school before they're draft eligible again. With the NBA only having 2 rounds and fairly limited undrafted free agents, you'd still see a huge majority of top high school talent entering college and matriculating.

The next step needs to be some kind of compensation package for college players.
RG20
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Makes sense. I too am for getting kids to the league who don't care about college. Some college games were hard to watch past couple of years.
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

This is good news if it happens. Gets some guys out of the college game that don't want to be there. Watching guys like Ben Simmons float their way through a season of basketball was annoying.

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Makes sense. I too am for getting kids to the league who don't care about college. Some college games were hard to watch past couple of years.
I get this complaint in the abstract - you want everyone's priority to be winning a title - but I don't think removing one-and-dones helps fix the on-the-court product. The college game is hard to watch because the players and coaches are not skilled enough to put out an entertaining product and chipping away at the talent base isn't going to make anyone better.

Ben Simmons coasted at times, sure, but why do we blame him instead of his horrible coach? Was the 2017 version of LSU more enjoyable than the 2016 version?

Imo the one-and-dones of the last 10 years have been some of the most interesting/exciting players in college basketball (Durant, Beasley, Oden+Conley, Okafor+Tyus+Randle, 2 or 3 different UK teams come to mind) and while allowing those kids to go straight to the NBA is what they deserve, I don't think college basketball will be better off because of it.
_lefraud_
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And Carmelo who led his team to a national title, along with Anthony Davis doing the same for UK.

I'm with you though, I'd rather see those guys for even just a year, instead of seeing a Kwame Brown.
wacarnolds
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_lefraud_ said:

And Carmelo who led his team to a national title, along with Anthony Davis doing the same for UK.

I'm with you though, I'd rather see those guys for even just a year, instead of seeing a Kwame Brown.
I believe Carmelo willingly chose the NCAA over NBA coming out of high school, but yes, he's an example of a talented freshman capable of carrying the sport on its biggest stage who might not make it to college in the future.
Pumpkinhead
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Besides lowering the age limit to 18, what you may also see happen is the NBA start interacting with players at a younger age, and also make the G-League a more viable alternative to those not immediately ready yet for the NBA but still looking to turn professional and start helping their families.

No, none of this would be beneficial to the college game, as obviously the talent pool would be degraded. But it would allow young men with no interest in the 'student' part of 'student athlete' to simply get on with it.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22615784/nba-making-plans-get-involved-high-school-level-once-again-espn


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The NBA already has created an "in between" for the G League and NBA rosters with two-way contracts, in which players earn the equivalent of $75,000 when in the G League and then earn an NBA minimum salary when with the parent club. A plan to create another version of this could be launched for 18-year-olds that would make it more financially attractive for them to stay in the U.S. and get more NBA-level coaching and training as they prepare to eventually be formally drafted into the league.
Pumpkinhead
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wacarnolds said:

_lefraud_ said:

And Carmelo who led his team to a national title, along with Anthony Davis doing the same for UK.

I'm with you though, I'd rather see those guys for even just a year, instead of seeing a Kwame Brown.
I believe Carmelo willingly chose the NCAA over NBA coming out of high school, but yes, he's an example of a talented freshman capable of carrying the sport on its biggest stage who might not make it to college in the future.
Odds that LeBron Jr plays in college?
wacarnolds
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Pumpkinhead said:

Besides lowering the age limit to 18, what you may also see happen is the NBA start interacting with players at a younger age, and also make the G-League a more viable alternative to those not immediately ready yet for the NBA but still looking to turn professional and start helping their families.

No, none of this would be beneficial to the college game, as obviously the talent pool would be degraded. But it would allow young men with no interest in the 'student' part of 'student athlete' to simply get on with it.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22615784/nba-making-plans-get-involved-high-school-level-once-again-espn


Quote:

The NBA already has created an "in between" for the G League and NBA rosters with two-way contracts, in which players earn the equivalent of $75,000 when in the G League and then earn an NBA minimum salary when with the parent club. A plan to create another version of this could be launched for 18-year-olds that would make it more financially attractive for them to stay in the U.S. and get more NBA-level coaching and training as they prepare to eventually be formally drafted into the league.

I think this is the most sustainable solution. Doesn't address any of the issues with college football, but it's a start.

And I think it's unfair to create a false choice between players who care about school and players who don't. A kid can value a college education (or at least to the extent an 17/18 year old kid is capable of understanding the long-term benefits) and still feel entitled to fair financial compensation for the revenue they produce. I think the G-league would be wise, if they decide to play more of a role with 18-20 yr olds, to institute some form of college studies with their players to help get them on the path to a college degree. Or create a fund to pay for future college tuition if guys decide to go straight to the league.
wacarnolds
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Quote:

Odds that LeBron Jr plays in college?
No chance, he's a lock to be the starting PF on a future Los Angeles LeBronBallakers lineup.
bobinator
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I get what you're saying, but I don't think it's going to impact the product on the floor much. College basketball was fine ten years ago before they made the one-and-done rule, so it'll be fine again.

I mostly think it's a good idea because I think making guys that clearly could already be getting paid by the NBA play college for a year is just a weird idea on principle.

But as you can tell from my thoughts on the other thread, I think major shakeups are coming to the whole system soon.
bobinator
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wacarnolds said:


No chance, he's a lock to be the starting PF on a future Los Angeles LeBronBallakers lineup.

LeBrongeles was right there and you went with that?
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

I get what you're saying, but I don't think it's going to impact the product on the floor much. College basketball was fine ten years ago before they made the one-and-done rule, so it'll be fine again.

The professional basketball scene is just so different now, I'm not sure it's wise to compare today's environment to that pre-2005. And all you have to do is look at A&M basketball for an example. Did you ever hear of guys like Tyler Davis just bailing on their remaining eligibility back then, knowing they had no shot at getting drafted?

College basketball already has a problem with 100 underclassmen choosing to get paid for their services instead of returning to school, half of which don't even get drafted. Now take out the best 5-10 freshmen who go the NBA draft and potentially another 10-15 out of the top 50 that would choose a G-league contract and you're really diluting the talent at the college level.

Quote:

I mostly think it's a good idea because I think making guys that clearly could already be getting paid by the NBA play college for a year is just a weird idea on principle.

Agree completely.
bobinator
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I think you make a fair point there, and that's something that college basketball is going to have to figure out. With international basketball and now the G-league becoming ways to make halfway decent money they're going to have to figure out a reason that players would even want to go to college.

I think at this point our separate conversations are converging into the same one, haha.
CactusThomas
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_lefraud_ said:

And Carmelo who led his team to a national title, along with Anthony Davis doing the same for UK.

I'm with you though, I'd rather see those guys for even just a year, instead of seeing a Kwame Brown.


Kwame is playing on fs1 right now.
Big3
Method Man
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Eh either way.
TMartin
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NBA...biting the hand that feeds them.
wacarnolds
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TMartin said:

NBA...biting the hand that feeds them.
If they're not careful, the NCAA is going to start sending all its graduates overseas and the NBA will really be screwed
Iowaggie
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Should the NCAA start allowing guys who were pros or declared for draft the opportunity to be a college player again? On scholarship?

For that matter, why limit college eligibility to just 4 seasons?

Kids are going to realize that it's real tough to not only make the NBA, but to make the G League as well. Why not let them go get a college education paid for?
expresswrittenconsent
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Iowaggie said:

Should the NCAA start allowing guys who were pros or declared for draft the opportunity to be a college player again? On scholarship?

For that matter, why limit college eligibility to just 4 seasons?

Kids are going to realize that it's real tough to not only make the NBA, but to make the G League as well. Why not let them go get a college education paid for?
why? there's nobody on the nba side, the ncaa side, or the fan side clamoring for pro players to be allowed to go back to college.
wacarnolds
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expresswrittenconsent said:

Iowaggie said:

Should the NCAA start allowing guys who were pros or declared for draft the opportunity to be a college player again? On scholarship?

For that matter, why limit college eligibility to just 4 seasons?

Kids are going to realize that it's real tough to not only make the NBA, but to make the G League as well. Why not let them go get a college education paid for?
why? there's nobody on the nba side, the ncaa side, or the fan side clamoring for pro players to be allowed to go back to college.
because every year, 50+ underclassmen declare for the draft and do not get drafted. So don't care, some do care and possibly declared due to bad advice.

I think it would be fair to allow players who did not sign with an agent (or didn't receive financial benefits) to retain their amateur status and finish out their eligibility. College baseball does it, as far as I know, so why can't college basketball and college football?
expresswrittenconsent
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That doesn't seem unreasonable but I honestly don't see how that would be better than the current set up where players have the ability to declare, test the waters, and then can still pull out of the draft and return to school.
It seems like there could be roster issues as a result but the coaches make enough $$ to deal with it.
Double Diamond
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Good.
wacarnolds
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expresswrittenconsent said:

That doesn't seem unreasonable but I honestly don't see how that would be better than the current set up where players have the ability to declare, test the waters, and then can still pull out of the draft and return to school.
I think the main issue is that the NBA teams and agents have little incentive to tell the truth to the players (because they benefit from having more players/clients in the draft pool), so there is not really anything to protect the players from getting bad information. It's not a critical issue, but I think the tables are tilted too far against the kids.

Quote:

It seems like there could be roster issues as a result but the coaches make enough $$ to deal with it.
This is definitely a complicating factor. Not sure the best way to handle it, maybe some sort of roster exemption if you have a player unexpectedly return to a full roster. There are probably a handful of other reasonable options to solve it.
greg.w.h
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The impetus for one and done was largely because the NBA trusted colleges more than themselves to professionally develop young players especially with regards to handling lifestyle and financial decisions...also known as "off the court" behavior.

With the last of the direct-to-NBA players aging out of the league and the players unhappy with the one-and-done framework AND the emergence of especially the dual contract NBA roster spots, they necessarily have to take responsibility for that kind of professional and personal development.

But it won't happen until the veterans feel protected on share of money v what rookies get.
Iowaggie
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expresswrittenconsent said:

Iowaggie said:

Should the NCAA start allowing guys who were pros or declared for draft the opportunity to be a college player again? On scholarship?

For that matter, why limit college eligibility to just 4 seasons?

Kids are going to realize that it's real tough to not only make the NBA, but to make the G League as well. Why not let them go get a college education paid for?
why? there's nobody on the nba side, the ncaa side, or the fan side clamoring for pro players to be allowed to go back to college.

I would think it is the next logical step. Plus it is already done with players who play one sport being allowed to come back and play another (Brandon Weeden).
Anyone who has ever called for players to be paid and/or cited the Olympic model for paying players would have to be open to the idea. Why limit a player's earning potential?

The justification that "it's never been done that way" isn't a good enough reason to not do it.

It's why I understand why the NCAA would hold the line on not paying S-A at all. Once it's done in any way, it opens a lot of other changes in the system.
Iowaggie
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By the way, this still has to be approved by the owners and the players, correct?
Or has it been approved?

I don't know if the owners still want it, unless they get some significant concession.

And the current players may want to consider adding more people to potentially them in their job. It's really in the best interest of most current players to not allow the HS kids to come in either, not that they always act in the best interest of all the players.
bobinator
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Iowaggie said:


I would think it is the next logical step. Plus it is already done with players who play one sport being allowed to come back and play another (Brandon Weeden).
Anyone who has ever called for players to be paid and/or cited the Olympic model for paying players would have to be open to the idea. Why limit a player's earning potential?

The justification that "it's never been done that way" isn't a good enough reason to not do it.

It's why I understand why the NCAA would hold the line on not paying S-A at all. Once it's done in any way, it opens a lot of other changes in the system.
What? Are you saying we can't start letting guys make money because it opens the door for players who can't hack it in the NBA anymore to come back to college?

That's a wild slippery slope argument.
expresswrittenconsent
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I'm not really making the same connection that "it's the next logical step".
wacarnolds
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Iowaggie said:



And the current players may want to consider adding more people to potentially them in their job. It's really in the best interest of most current players to not allow the HS kids to come in either, not that they always act in the best interest of all the players.

Yeah that's part of the reason why the NBA players union accepted the one-and-done rule the first time. Nobody wants more competition for roster spots
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