Schedule starting to take shape...expectations?

6,914 Views | 52 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by numetalbizkitaggie
wacarnolds
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Lots of dates are TBD but we know the basic home/away/neutral schedule, minus a bunch of cupcakes.

Any thoughts on what reasonable expectations should be for Year 8?

Home (17)
#9 Kansas State
#11 Auburn
#28 LSU
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Missouri
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Boston College
*6 assumed cupcake games

Away (10)
#1 Gonzaga
#7 Kentucky
#24 Mississippi State
#28 LSU
#32 Florida
Alabama
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Missouri
South Carolina

Neutral (4)
#26 Minnesota
#29 Washington
Oregon State
Santa Clara
J Peterman
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No idea...so much unknown. I like the athleticism this team has so the defense should be a top 5-10 defense, but worried about where the offense will come from. Also hoping Starks learns how to keep the ball close to his body when dribbling and limits TO's. He does that, and a bench guy can be counted on for 10pts a game I think we are in good shape for a 6-8 seed with a schedule like that.
miller0926
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Throw Boston College into that schedule as well.

We replace Kansas, West Virginia, Arizona, and USC with Gonzaga, Kansas St., and Boston College. Hopefully one of the cupcakes is another Buffalo type team (a RPI top 30 and tier 1 win). There's definitely opportunities on that schedule to get in, but not near as many as last year where we went 9-9 in conference and still got a 7-seed.
Oak Forest Ag
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Did we add BC? Home game?

Thx.
wacarnolds
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miller0926 said:

Throw Boston College into that schedule as well.

Good catch
bobinator
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Muffin Top 04 said:

I like the athleticism this team has so the defense should be a top 5-10 defense
We weren't even a top 5-10 defense last year, so I think expecting us to be an elite defensive team this year is setting unreasonable expectations.

I think we could be a tournament team, but some things are going to have to happen that each on their own wouldn't be unlikely, but taken as a group might be unlikely. Going from most important to least important...

#1 - Starks has to take better care of the ball, and be a more mature player about controlling the flow of the game. - I think this is fairly likely, he was a true freshman last year, playing a much bigger role than expected with really no backup down the stretch, he tried to shoulder the whole burden even when he really didn't have to. I expect/hope Starks is going to be a very good player this season.

#2 - We have to be a better three point shooting team. - We were AWFUL at shooting threes last season. If we're going to be any good at all this year, this has to be a strength, or at least it can't be a weakness.

#3 - We're going to have to play fast, and as fans we're going to have to live with what we've all grown up believing are bad shots. - We don't have a lot of guys that can put the ball on the ground and get to the basket, we certainly don't have any proven guys that can score on the low block, and in Kennedy's eighth(!) season I don't really see any reason to expect us to suddenly become good at getting guys open off screens. So when guys are open, they're going to have to pull the trigger. Early in the shot clock, in transition, etc. If you're open, green light.

#4 - We're going to have to rebound more as a team - Simple fact is we just lost two of the best rebounders in school history, and they were so good at it that we could get away with some poor fundamentals at times. We're not going to replace Williams and Davis, but to use a moneyball phrase, we'll have to make it up in the aggregate. Everyone is going to have to rebound better.

If all of that happens, then we could be a pretty good team. Gilder is a great player, Starks could become one fairly easily, I expect Flagg is going to become a really good player this season. He was a pretty good player last year playing on a team that didn't have a good role for his type of player. I could see him becoming a Jalen Jones type player. Hits enough threes that you can't leave him open, which gives him some space to slash. He's also a very good rebounder. Just has a good feel around the rim.

If the new guys can at least be replacement level type players, we've got some pieces we could make work. Teams built like this one have been good before. In fact we'd have a pretty good roster for coaches like Rick Barnes or maybe Frank Martin.

But we haven't seen Kennedy have success with a roster like this yet. When we've been good we've mostly overwhelmed our opponents with talent, and that's not going to be the case this year.

So, TL;DR version: I wish I could expect this team to be a tournament team because I do think there are some good pieces to work with, but unfair or not I don't truly believe that Kennedy will get the most out of this team so if I had to make a prediction today I'd say we're probably going to be a not-quite-good-enough-to-be-on-the-bubble team.
expresswrittenconsent
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good write up. i kind of feel like a lot hinges on how much Flagg improves. i like the kid's potential but i dont see him making the leap next year. i think he gets lots of PT, and improves some, but makes the leap as a junior.
Hop
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bobinator said:

Muffin Top 04 said:

I like the athleticism this team has so the defense should be a top 5-10 defense
We weren't even a top 5-10 defense last year, so I think expecting us to be an elite defensive team this year is setting unreasonable expectations.

I'm not suggesting that A&M will have a Top 5-10 defense next year, but why is last year the stake in the ground for comparison. Last year's team was one of the slowest foot speed on the perimeter in P5 college basketball. The rim protectors made the defense seem acceptable, but it was a horrible on-ball defensive team.
Method Man
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"We're going to have to play fast"

Can we get the stats on this, Wac? I bet we don't play fast.
bobinator
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We were #14 in the country in overall defensive efficiency last year, top ten in block percentage, and top forty in 3pt% and 2pt% defense last season. So we were really good to elite by pretty much any metric you want to use other than forcing turnovers. So, it's a stake in the ground because we lost the really good part of last year's defense, which wasn't as good as he's hoping this year's defense is.

Also, I don't see any reason to suddenly expect this year's team to be way better at perimeter defense at this point. Your slow footed perimeter players are all mostly still here except for Hogg.

I'm not saying we're going to be bad at defense, I'm just saying last year's team was a really good defensive team and even it wasn't top 5-10 good so I think that's an unreasonable expectation.

Let's say Starks and Chandler improve their footwork, Gilder stays healthy enough to guard at full speed all season and the new guys are good-but-not-great on-ball defenders, what's an insanely optimistic expectation at overall defensive efficiency? Top 30?

bobinator
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We actually played pretty quick (grading on a curve) last year for us, but I think we're going to have to be even faster this year to be good.
Method Man
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Thanks!
bobinator
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We were 101st by KenPom's adjusted tempo, easily the high water mark of the BK era. Four of the first six years were in the 300s and the other two we were in the 200s.
Chuck Gay
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If history is any indicator, the game in Portland against Oregon St. will be considered a pure road game for us and not a neutral site game. At least, it has been in prior years where it was a men's and women's Oregon St. doubleheader. I'm guessing they have met the second rule below regarding RPI home/neutral in the past.


Quote:

Game location is nearly irrelevant and game management means everything. The first rule is that if you play on your home floor, you are always the home team. "Home floor" is undefined, and when I asked the NCAA for a definition, I didn't really get anything beyond the school's "traditional" home floor. Some schools like Connecticut and St. John's have more than one.

The second rule says that if a team, "rents the facility, arranges for officials, controls the tickets and is responsible for game operations, it is the home team regardless of the opponent."
expresswrittenconsent
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Chuck Gay said:

If history is any indicator, the game in Portland against Oregon St. will be considered a pure road game for us and not a neutral site game. At least, it has been in prior years where it was a men's and women's Oregon St. doubleheader. I'm guessing they have met the second rule below regarding RPI home/neutral in the past.


Quote:

Game location is nearly irrelevant and game management means everything. The first rule is that if you play on your home floor, you are always the home team. "Home floor" is undefined, and when I asked the NCAA for a definition, I didn't really get anything beyond the school's "traditional" home floor. Some schools like Connecticut and St. John's have more than one.

The second rule says that if a team, "rents the facility, arranges for officials, controls the tickets and is responsible for game operations, it is the home team regardless of the opponent."

how does that get determined?
washington played kansas last year in kansas city (instead of lawrence) and it counted as a home game for kansas and a road game for washington. but didnt we only get neutral credit for our game in arizona?
LouisvilleAg
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I think that counts for jerseys and that is about it. In terms of RPI, it is counted as a neutral game.
bobinator
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LouisvilleAg said:

I think that counts for jerseys and that is about it. In terms of RPI, it is counted as a neutral game.
Nope, there are some neutral games that officially count as home/away depending on the circumstances like he said. Like Chuck pointed out, last year's Oregon State/St. Louis game in Portland was officially (by the NCAA team sheets and RPI) a home game for Oregon State.
LouisvilleAg
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Here are the RPI numbers of each team based on 2017 games.

Tier 1 (9 games)
Tennessee - 10
@Kentucky - 12
Auburn - 16
@Gonzaga - 22
@Arkansas - 34
@Alabama - 41
@Florida - 43
@Missouri - 49
@Mississippi State - 55


Tier 2 (7 games)
Arkansas - 34
Kansas State - 38
Alabama - 41
Missouri - 49
(N) Washington - 63
@LSU - 88
@South Carolina - 90

Tier 3 and 4 (15 games)
Georgia - 80
LSU - 88
South Carolina - 90
Boston College - 94
Vanderbilt - 131
(N) Oregon State - 140
@Ole Miss - 145
(N) Minnesota - 167
(N) Santa Clara - 264
*6 Assumed Cupcake Games

Last year, A&M played 17 Tier 1 (8-9 record) games, 9 Tier 2 (6-3 record) games and 9 Tier 3/4 (8-1 record) games. We also had a RPI of 25 from that schedule. Now obviously, the RPI will change as the 2018 season goes. By the way, here is how each Tier is defined:

RPI Tier 1: Home (1-30)....Neutral (1-50)....Away (1-75)
RPI Tier 2: Home (31-75)....Neutral (51-100)....Away (76-135)
RPI Tier 3: Home (76-160)....Neutral (101-200)....Away (136-240)
RPI Tier 4: Home (161-351)....Neutral (201-351)....Away (241-351)
caleblyn
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Tier 1 (9 games)
Tennessee - 10 L
@Kentucky - 12 L
Auburn - 16 L
@Gonzaga - 22 L
@Arkansas - 34 L
@Alabama - 41 L
@Florida - 43 L
@Missouri - 49 W
@Mississippi State - 55 L


Tier 2 (7 games)
Arkansas - 34 L
Kansas State - 38 L
Alabama - 41 W
Missouri - 49 W
(N) Washington - 63 L
@LSU - 88 L
@South Carolina - 90 L

Tier 3 and 4 (15 games)
Georgia - 80 W
LSU - 88 L
South Carolina - 90 W
Boston College - 94 L
Vanderbilt - 131 W
(N) Oregon State - 140 W
@Ole Miss - 145 W
(N) Minnesota - 167 W
(N) Santa Clara - 264 W
*6 Assumed Cupcake Games 6-0


TIER 1 - 1-8
TIER 2 - 2-5
TIER3&4 - 13-2
FINAL - 16-15
RPI ~75
LouisvilleAg
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I think that is probably the floor for this team. I think our ceiling will be near records in each tier as 3-6 in Tier 1, 4-3 in Tier 2, and 15-0 in Tier 3. So a total record of 22-9 might be more likely to be near our ceiling. Unfortunately as it stands now, I would say our RPI is going to be somewhere near 40 with the teams on our schedule. My guess, we are probably an 8 or 9 seed in the tournament.

Now, some of those teams will be in different Tiers, at least I expect them to be. These are teams that I expect to be much higher in terms of RPI: Minnesota, LSU, and Washington. I expect Arkansas to drop in RPI next year. Everyone else will probably more or less be around the same RPI. I know nothing of Oregon State and Santa Clara at this point.

So, an average of your floor and my ceiling is probably have a record of 20-11 or 19-12 and being a legit bubble team probably looking from the outside at the Big Tourney.

Hop
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bobinator said:

We were #14 in the country in overall defensive efficiency last year, top ten in block percentage, and top forty in 3pt% and 2pt% defense last season. So we were really good to elite by pretty much any metric you want to use other than forcing turnovers. So, it's a stake in the ground because we lost the really good part of last year's defense, which wasn't as good as he's hoping this year's defense is.

Also, I don't see any reason to suddenly expect this year's team to be way better at perimeter defense at this point. Your slow footed perimeter players are all mostly still here except for Hogg.

I'm not saying we're going to be bad at defense, I'm just saying last year's team was a really good defensive team and even it wasn't top 5-10 good so I think that's an unreasonable expectation.

Let's say Starks and Chandler improve their footwork, Gilder stays healthy enough to guard at full speed all season and the new guys are good-but-not-great on-ball defenders, what's an insanely optimistic expectation at overall defensive efficiency? Top 30?


You seem to be forgetting the best addition to the team (Mitchell) that is quick enough to play point guard with the size to play off the ball and guard somebody off the ball. Considering that Hogg played 30 minutes a game, that's a huge upgrade in foot speed. I don't know enough about Mahan's foot speed, but it MUST be quicker than the cement-footed Hogg.

The posts covered up the problems with on-ball perimeter defense. Next year's team will operate differently. The defense will come more from perimeter, and not needed as much from the posts which was my original point.
bobinator
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Your point is fine, yeah, we're obviously going to be a better perimeter defensive team without Hogg on the floor for thirty minutes, but it doesn't change my point which is that expecting us to field a top 5-10 defense next season is unreasonable.
wacarnolds
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Chuck Gay said:

If history is any indicator, the game in Portland against Oregon St. will be considered a pure road game for us and not a neutral site game.

I'm only looking at it from an on-court, 'what does this game feel like' classification. I expect to the Oregon St game to be mostly OSU fans, but it will be a relatively empty stadium that neither team is comfortable playing in. So I put it under neutral.

But you're right that, as far as RPI is concerned, it could be considered a road game.
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

We were 101st by KenPom's adjusted tempo, easily the high water mark of the BK era. Four of the first six years were in the 300s and the other two we were in the 200s.

To break it down even further, we played 113th fastest in offense and 99th fastest on defense, so our tempo wasn't skewed by either end of the court.

The fact we graded out so fast on defense while struggling to force turnovers is a little surprising. We did do a decent job on the defensive glass, although not as well as we should have, so we were able fo limit extremely long possessions extended by an offensive rebound. And our length made us elite at blocking shots.

Putting it all together, it seems like teams didn't struggle to get shots off, but we were exceptional at defending said shot, leading to a pretty good defense on paper.
wacarnolds
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LouisvilleAg said:

So, an average of your floor and my ceiling is probably have a record of 20-11 or 19-12 and being a legit bubble team probably looking from the outside at the Big Tourney.

If we win 20 games against this schedule, we should easily be in the tournament.
bobinator
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An offensive rebound actually initiates a new possession, so I think many teams realized that the longer a possession went the less likely they were to get a good shot off against us so they tended to shoot earlier in the possession. We're not talking huge swings here or anything wild, but enough to shift the numbers over the course of a season.
Gap
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wacarnolds said:

Chuck Gay said:

If history is any indicator, the game in Portland against Oregon St. will be considered a pure road game for us and not a neutral site game.

I'm only looking at it from an on-court, 'what does this game feel like' classification. I expect to the Oregon St game to be mostly OSU fans, but it will be a relatively empty stadium that neither team is comfortable playing in. So I put it under neutral.

But you're right that, as far as RPI is concerned, it could be considered a road game.
Then that game would definitely go in the road column for us. It is a men and women's Oregon St. doubleheader promoted by their school with all the other things that go along with that like their band, cheerleaders, PA announcer, etc.. When we have played in Houston, it has been a 3rd party promoter looking to make a profit and a doubleheader with 4 different schools where ticket prices are ridiculously high keeping the average Aggie fan from making an easy decision to attend. The promoter is looking to get Aggie fans and Longhorn fans and LSU fans and college basketball fans in general. We are going into an Oregon St. production trying to make a show of their basketball programs in their state's only big city. I'm not saying that we are going into Cameron Indoor or Bud Walton but it will definitely feel like a road game to us and a home game for Oregon St. It looks like they drew a little over 8,000 last year.
LouisvilleAg
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wacarnolds said:

LouisvilleAg said:

So, an average of your floor and my ceiling is probably have a record of 20-11 or 19-12 and being a legit bubble team probably looking from the outside at the Big Tourney.

If we win 20 games against this schedule, we should easily be in the tournament.


If you only have 5 tier 1 and tier 2 wins, I don't see how we easily make it in. We had what, 14 wins last year against tier 1 and tier 2 and we were a 7 seed.
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

An offensive rebound actually initiates a new possession

I don't think that's right, as far as how the KP tempo calculations work
wacarnolds
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LouisvilleAg said:

wacarnolds said:

LouisvilleAg said:

So, an average of your floor and my ceiling is probably have a record of 20-11 or 19-12 and being a legit bubble team probably looking from the outside at the Big Tourney.

If we win 20 games against this schedule, we should easily be in the tournament.


If you only have 5 tier 1 and tier 2 wins, I don't see how we easily make it in. We had what, 14 wins last year against tier 1 and tier 2 and we were a 7 seed.

How many teams with 20 wins vs a tough schedule get left out of the tournament?
bobinator
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Hm, looks like you're right... I thought I remembered the formula being different for that. I guess that makes sense when I actually think about it.

bobinator
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At any rate there is not nearly enough people putting their expectations out there on this thread. Let's see em.
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

At any rate there is not nearly enough people putting their expectations out there on this thread. Let's see em.

I'll say

13-4 home
2-8 road
2-2 neutral

Feels like a fringe bubble team if nothing crazy happens. If half the new guys are good, I'd say we're a decent bet to make the tournament. But it's basically all question marks once you get past Admon, and new faces in new schemes without much depth probably goes wrong more often than not.

The obvious caveat would be that no one's seen most of these guys perform the roles they'll be expected to play this year, so it's all guessing. But every other year that's been true, we've missed the tournament, and only once in 5 similar years did we even make the NIT.
LouisvilleAg
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I think you mean a fringe NIT team at 17-14.

This a 40ish most difficult schedule out there. We are challenging ourselves, but last year's schedule was much stronger. I think it came out to a top 10 difficult schedule.

Yes our team has drastically changed and we have a lot of unknowns, but the schedule does ease up quite a bit. The downside is that there is little margin for error. Anything less than 19 wins won't get us in the big dance.
rosstradamas70
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20-11 and in the big dance
ross skillman 70
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