Given the huge holes that we will have on our roster next year, I thought it was worth putting into numbers:

The players who aren't returning for whatever reason contributed:

75% of the playing minutes available

77% of our total points scored

77% of our total rebounds

I'm certain that the sunshine pumpers here will show me the positives of this retention/recruiting fiasco.

Are we counting Gilder as gone? Did I miss something?

I do. We'll see if that is a correct assumption.

nm

It is hard to see how we aren't absolutely terrible next year. Gilder would have to come back (Probable). Few if any injuries (Possible). Starks would need to improve his FG% and 3Pt% (Possible). Transfers Mitchell and Nebo both have to be good (Possible).

Really if any of those breaks against us then we are screwed. There is just no depth, can't afford to lose Gilder and any injuries would be catastrophic. Needless to say that I am not holding my breath that any of the new Freshman or Transfers will be good, especially right away. This season is lining up to be an absolutely terrible one.

I think we can be okay if Gilder comes back, but we'll definitely be a lot different and certainly a lot smaller.

bobinator said:

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Are we counting Gilder as gone? Did I miss something?

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On the day that the news about Tyler not coming back broke, Logan seemed to still be assuming that Gilder was coming back. Anyways, if Gilder isn't returning, then that news will have to come out in the next 5 days regardless, so not much longer to wait on that regard.

No two ways about it, Tyler leaving was devastating for the 2018/2019 prospects. Think we are looking like a bubble team at best. Still can't believe he is leaving. Starting Guard play could be the best in the entire conference but no real inside presence unless jasey or nebo has something I don't know about.

Staff had to know that Robert wasn't likely coming back and it would tough to imagine that someone like Tyler would stay for more than 3 years. So I suspect that they have been planning on bringing in Bigs who were looking for immediate playing time. I'm afraid that this is a reflection on this program and BK's shaky status that they have had little success in reloading the roster.

that will be the pumpers and BK's story if crap hits the fan. Prepare to hear about this from the announcers almost every game this year (as the camera pans over at BK blankly staring).

That excuse might work if we are a close to the bubble team, but IMO we are going to be one of the very worst teams in the conference

We just recently saw South Carolina and Oklahoma lose most of the roster from Final Four teams, and then promptly sink into no-post season status the next season. Unless you are recruiting like a Kentucky or Duke, it is pretty difficult to just immediately 'reload' from a large roster turnover. So the reasonable base expectation for next season is a large drop. Or, pin your hopes on Texas A&M pulling an Auburn or Tennessee like last season and being surprisingly a lot better than pre-season expectations.

Steeple said:

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Staff had to know that Robert wasn't likely coming back and it would tough to imagine that someone like Tyler would stay for more than 3 years. So I suspect that they have been planning on bringing in Bigs who were looking for immediate playing time. I'm afraid that this is a reflection on this program and BK's shaky status that they have had little success in reloading the roster.

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The misses in the 2018 HS recruiting now become more immediately problematic.

In terms of bringing in a grad transfer post player to immediately help for next season, they obviously were not in a position to close a guy until it was known for sure if Tyler was coming back or not. Nobody was coming to A&M to sit on the bench. Now that Davis isn't coming back, we'll see if they can close a lead they've been working on.

Though whoever they get, he isn't going to nearly be as good as Tyler Davis. That just isn't going to happen. Davis was a first team All-SEC quality player with tons of experience.

This really isn't that thread, and maybe it's not the time yet since a lot of rosters are still fluctuating, but I can't wait for the preseason expectations thread this year.

bobinator said:

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This really isn't that thread, and maybe it's not the time yet since a lot of rosters are still fluctuating, but I can't wait for the preseason expectations thread this year.

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fans here will have melvin 0-fer expectations and then when the ags manage to go 5-13 or 6-12 in SEC play the pumpers will spin it as a posiive (we were picked 13th and finished 10th!!!)

that may be your impression but is is the same 8-10 people defending the coach at every turn that have been here doing it on this board since the BKs first season. And when there are only ~25 regulars on this board, 8 people can be a pretty vocal group. i know you had some issues where you left this website from the early BCG era until 2 yrs ago so perhaps your impression is not accurate.

The expectation should be to make the tournament and/or at least be on the bubble come March. Regardless of what the roster looks like come Fall, in year 8, we shouldn't have to manage our expectations because of the roster situation; he's out of passes. But we know that Kennedy will more than likely get year 9 unless he has a 4-14 type season.

I didn't have any 'issues', my work prevented me from being on here from about 2010-2016 since I worked for competing outlets.

And you could be right, I just don't see a lot of pumper talk on here. I have heard that there's a lot more of that on premium and I don't post on there so that may be another reason we have different perceptions of the overall conversation.

bobinator said:

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I didn't have any 'issues', my work prevented me from being on here from about 2010-2016 since I worked for competing outlets.

And you could be right, I just don't see a lot of pumper talk on here. I have heard that there's a lot more of that on premium and I don't post on there so that may be another reason we have different perceptions of the overall conversation.

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I can attest that Premium is a frustrating place to read basketball discussions. With the student access and the lack of posting ability, it is frustrating to see the lack of baskeball knowledge on that board and not be able to rationally respond. However, I would say it is probably pretty representative of our fanbase as a whole when it comes to basketball from a knowledge and understanding of the college game.

I think any time you lose a good portion of your starting lineup you'd expect to take a step back the next year. I think the big issue however is we have all been able to see this coming for quite some time and the staff has done almost nothing to fill the holes you could see coming for years. The transfer and juco recruting is nice for filling holes you didn't expect, but I think a big issue is we seem to be relying heavily on it due to poor high school recruiting. Outside of House and Jones, we haven't fared too well with playing this game in the past, so it is hard to have confidence moving forward. I always have flashbacks to Andrew Young when it comes to us pulling juco guys that the staff raves about.

Next, add in the inability of our staff to adapt a system to the personnel on hand and it makes what would likely be a down year regardless feel pretty scary already and it is only May.

Topher17 said:

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I think any time you lose a good portion of your starting lineup you'd expect to take a step back the next year. I think the big issue however is we have all been able to see this coming for quite some time and the staff has done almost nothing to fill the holes you could see coming for years. The transfer and juco recruting is nice for filling holes you didn't expect, but I think a big issue is we seem to be relying heavily on it due to poor high school recruiting. Outside of House and Jones, we haven't fared too well with playing this game in the past, so it is hard to have confidence moving forward. I always have flashbacks to Andrew Young when it comes to us pulling juco guys that the staff raves about.

Next, add in the inability of our staff to adapt a system to the personnel on hand and it makes what would likely be a down year regardless feel pretty scary already and it is only May.

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I'm personally mostly looking at specifically next season and next season only. Had Tyler Davis returned then I think our chances of being an NCAA team next year would have been a lot better. And it would have allowed a bit more time with more options to mitigate the situation in the post.

However, now...he isn't returning so I'm personally now on the 'Next year won't be an NCAA team' bandwagon. Hogg didn't bother me as much, both because of his inconsistency anyways and there seemed reasonable alternatives to replace that production. Tyler was a much bigger loss and I personally don't see how they really replace that. He was really good (like First Team All Conference good), and he was CONSISTENTLY good. And he never got into any trouble and was pretty durable (not injury prone). Those kind of players don't grow on trees.

Will Kennedy keep his job if he misses the NCAA next year? Beats me. All I know is there was plenty of smoke that he would have lost his job had he missed the NCAA the past season. Whether or not the Sweet Sixteen finish changed the situation enough that he can now afford a miss, I guess we'll find out (assuming we do indeed fall really flat next season).

Solid post, and I agree with you on basically everything.

As to your last point, I think Kennedy's status will not so much depend on making or missing the tournament, but more on how we do it. If we miss the tournament but are a bubble team, I could see him coming back even if it isn't what I would do as an AD. If we miss and are truly awful, say 5-13 in conference, I could see us making a change. As Bob said a bit earlier, the season predictions this year will be interesting to watch, for no other reason than we really have no idea what we have. I feel like the only thing we truly know right now without watching a game is we are almost certainly going to lack depth in the post.

Making the Sweet 16 twice out of the last 3 years will buy him another year regardless of next season's outcome. So now we're talking about 2020-2021 is when we could possibly make a change which is coincidentally the last year of his contract.

I don't necessarily agree, largely due to the fact that getting to the Sweet 16 for this year's team was two good games at the right time, not really a product of a great season. Outside of those two games, this year's team underachieved relative to the roster. Granted, who knows what Woodward thinks, he may view it as you do, athough I hope he thinks more critically about the season as a whole.

so, at the end of next season, march 2019 we will owe BK a 3.5 mil buyout to fire him or, since he will only have 2 yrs left on his deal we will have to extend him.

lets say we make the NIT next year - do you think it is more likely we extend BK or fire BK?

expresswrittenconsent said:

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so, at the end of next season, march 2019 we will owe BK a 3.5 mil buyout to fire him or, since he will only have 2 yrs left on his deal we will have to extend him.

lets say we make the NIT next year - do you think it is more likely we extend BK or fire BK?

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Could wait until May 16th and it drops by $1.5 million to $2.0 million.

To answer your question, I think it is more likely we extend him with a more reasonable buyout clause from the school's perspective.

expresswrittenconsent said:

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so, at the end of next season, march 2019 we will owe BK a 3.5 mil buyout to fire him or, since he will only have 2 yrs left on his deal we will have to extend him.

lets say we make the NIT next year - do you think it is more likely we extend BK or fire BK?

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They apparently would have had no problem firing him a couple of months ago and paying whatever the buyout would have been at that time. Given all the smoke in the national media that his job was in real jeopardy had A&M missed the 2018 NCAA tournament.

He ended up doing well enough to avoid the axe by winning those last three regular season conference games and then balling out in Charlotte, but how much rope he earned himself to also be able to make it through a no-post season next year, who knows.

GE said:

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expresswrittenconsent said:

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so, at the end of next season, march 2019 we will owe BK a 3.5 mil buyout to fire him or, since he will only have 2 yrs left on his deal we will have to extend him.

lets say we make the NIT next year - do you think it is more likely we extend BK or fire BK?

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Could wait until May 16th and it drops by $1.5 million to $2.0 million.

To answer your question, I think it is more likely we extend him with a more reasonable buyout clause from the school's perspective.

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IMO you cant wait until mid may, so that is a non-item. i agree we would likely extend and i would hope we would adjust the buyout terms but i doubt it.

Not sure why this is still a topic.

He's staying.

Who are you referring to, Kennedy? Gilder? Bobinator?

Pumpkinhead said:

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expresswrittenconsent said:

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so, at the end of next season, march 2019 we will owe BK a 3.5 mil buyout to fire him or, since he will only have 2 yrs left on his deal we will have to extend him.

lets say we make the NIT next year - do you think it is more likely we extend BK or fire BK?

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They apparently would have had no problem firing him a couple of months ago and paying whatever the buyout would have been at that time. Given all the smoke in the national media that his job was in real jeopardy had A&M missed the 2018 NCAA tournament.

He ended up doing well enough to avoid the axe by winning those last three regular season conference games and then balling out in Charlotte, but how much rope he earned himself to also be able to make it through a no-post season next year, who knows.

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What smoke in the national media? I must have missed that.