KenPom analysis

6,364 Views | 57 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by Hop
DeangeloVickers
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Well, lookie here lookie here

The Aggie basketball team after one weekend is the highest ranking since the Acie days.
Ranked #7 in the nation on KenPom. Again, Kenpom is statistical data of how efficient a team has played

Admon Gilder individually was one of the Top 30 players in the nation in offensive rating

The SEC Conference is ranked #2 and EVERY SEC team is in the Top 100...I have NEVER seen that before
We obviously have some big games up ahead

#49 Okie State (neutral)
#11 USC
#3 Arizona
#4 Kansas
#5 Kentucky
#8 Florida

KenPom Projected Standings based on how well teams have played thus far (not a good projection model unless everyone plays like they've already played)
1. Kentucky 13-3
2. A&M 12-6
3. Florida 12-6
4. Alabama 10-8
5. Arkansas 9-9
6. Vandy 9-9
7. South Carolina 9-9
8. Tennessee 9-9
9. Mississippi 9-9
10. Auburn 8-10
11. Miss State 7-11
12. Georgia 7-11
13. Mizzo 6-12
14. LSU 5-13

Really impressed with the box scores after 1 or 2 games from teams. Arkansas destroyed a pretty good Bucknell team tonight. Looking forward to UK/KU on Tuesday

I dont know about y'all but I have my tight pants on...basketball is back and I'll be damned but that was one of the best Aggie basketball performances Ive ever seen.

DeangeloVickers
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Individual ORtgs

Admon Gilder 182.6
DJ Hogg 145.9
Tyler Davis 134.6
Duane Wilson 85
Savion Flagg 84.7
Trocha 73.1
TJ Starks 65.8
Jasey 64.6
Jay Jay Chandler 0
Chris Collins 0
Basketball and Chain
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We can beat Kentucky this year.
Pumpkinhead
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Gilder only had a Top-30 ORtg performance on Kenpom for opening weekend?

Dang, dude's stat line was:

- Played 33 minutes
- 8-12 from the field
- 4-5 from 3 point range
- 3-3 from the FT line
- 23 points
- 9 rebounds
- 7 assists
- 2 steals
- 0 turnovers

He was almost flirting with a triple double.

I guess though there were several other dudes out there who really munched on cupcakes this weekend. Brownie points for Gilder though for putting up that kind of nasty efficient stat line versus a legit major conference opponent.
jml2621
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Yep - best kenpom ranking since the end of BCG's last year. We're ranked #3 in Defensive Efficiency, and once we got rolling it was a defensive clinic. Also, Starks, Gilder, Hogg, Wilson broke down WVU's press well.


Ahead of Wisconsin and Duke for the moment
sodycracker
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Gilder also guarded their stud guard & wore him down. Imo, Gilder is the glue that will hold this team together. He is extremely versatile on offense & defense. I think he's extremely underrated around the country.
jml2621
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Big difference vs. last year - 4 players with high steal rates on defense: Starks, Wilson, Hogg, Gilder and national ranked.

87.5 Effective FG% for Hogg!
83.3 eFG% for Gilder AND Davis!

11th in 3FG% (when has that ever happened!) on offense. Solid team steal rate and 2FG% on defense.

0 TOs for Gilder, too.


Obviously, with the smallest of small sample sizes, there is limited long-term interpretation...but a great start to the season.


jml2621
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sodycracker said:

Gilder also guarded their stud guard & wore him down. Imo, Gilder is the glue that will hold this team together. He is extremely versatile on offense & defense. I think he's extremely underrated around the country.


Gilder, Hogg, Davis, RW all potentially All-Conference (1st, 2nd, or 3rd team)...
dallasiteinsa02
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Basketball might be the biggest benefactor of the new Sec money.
wxguy95
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Mizzou is too low on that prediction.
phorizt
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I watched Kentucky and Arkansas play this weekend. I thought Arkansas looked really solid. They have a freshman big man(top 40 national recruit) who looks like a stud. He's long, athletic and has great touch around the basket. Macon and Barford are very good guards for them. It was only one game but they definitely have the look of an NCAA tourney team again this year.

Kentucky I wasn't all that impressed with. I watched some of both of their games this weekend. they're long and athletic but man that's just not a top 5 team. They're soft inside and don't play good perimeter defense. Yeah they'll be better later in the season and they'll make the tournament but I'll be really surprised if that's a team that wins the SEC.
phorizt
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oh yeah and I was very skeptical of Mizzou coming into the year but I watched them play ISU and they looked really good without Porter even being able to play.

We're only one or two games into the season but it usually only takes one or two games for an SEC team or two to lose to crappy no name schools but that hasn't happened. There were some solid wins vs Bucknell, Memphis, Iowa State, WVU, Vermont this weekend.
mhayden
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KenPom after two games.
CapCityAg89
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Basketball and Chain said:

We can beat Kentucky this year.

Hit shots like we did Friday and we can beat anyone with our length, size and quickness. This is a special team.
jml2621
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free_mhayden said:

KenPom after two games.

Well, yeah. There's a human element the past couple of years with a pre-season ranking...so current rankings are adjusted. Not really reliable until > 10 games out.


Still...enjoying Admon's 182.6 Offensive rating. What a game!


jml2621
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Pumpkinhead said:

Gilder only had a Top-30 ORtg performance on Kenpom for opening weekend?

Dang, dude's stat line was:

- Played 33 minutes
- 8-12 from the field
- 4-5 from 3 point range
- 3-3 from the FT line
- 23 points
- 9 rebounds
- 7 assists
- 2 steals
- 0 turnovers

He was almost flirting with a triple double.

I guess though there were several other dudes out there who really munched on cupcakes this weekend. Brownie points for Gilder though for putting up that kind of nasty efficient stat line versus a legit major conference opponent.

That will pay dividends later in the year, especially as he is consistent. SoS won't have meaning until about 10 games out.
JMJLAW
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A "defensive clinic?" Rewatch the game and count how many wide open shots WV missed. The game was a pleasant surprise, but I'm still concerned. I will also say this team has enough talent to dig BK out of his own deficiencies.
West Point Aggie
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JMJLAW said:

A "defensive clinic?" Rewatch the game and count how many wide open shots WV missed. The game was a pleasant surprise, but I'm still concerned. I will also say this team has enough talent to dig BK out of his own deficiencies.


Don't forget to revisit your "LMAO" thread...quality mocking therein...it was LMAO worthy but NOT for the reasons you think!
King Xerxes
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I had to eat Crow because I said Hogg looked worse this year compared to last after 10 min.

In all seriousness, I think the game time and being in Germany really throws a wrench in looking at stats or "rewatching" the game for wide open shots that were missed. It started at midnight at an Air Force Base in Germany!

We saw some promising things from the team and some troublesome things as well (the very poor start).

I'm glad we got the win but not taking the thrashing as evidence that we're about to skate trough non-conference unscathed.
West Point Aggie
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OrganicAg12 said:

I'm glad we got the win but not taking the thrashing as evidence that we're about to skate trough non-conference unscathed.


Who said that? This is a team that shows great potential but did not even make the ncaas last year...yet football style BAS-like behavior is not appropriate either...after a few minutes. We soundly bested the #11 team; a resume builder right off the bat! I'll take it!
bobinator
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Kentucky is always a hard team to rank in preseason because pretty much everyone agrees they aren't going to be top 5 at the start of the year, but they're predicting they end there. So is your preseason poll your best guess at how teams are going to finish the season, or are you really supposed to just rank the teams you think are going to be the best right out of the gate.

They're kind of a case study in rankings philosophies.
Pumpkinhead
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OrganicAg12 said:

I'm glad we got the win but not taking the thrashing as evidence that we're about to skate trough non-conference unscathed.
Our non-conference schedule is extremely difficult so we could be a legit Top-15 quality team and still easily lose at least a couple of games in non-conference.

We SHOULD feel optimistic at the moment about going 2-0 in that Brooklyn tournament next week. We look like a significantly more talented team than Okie State or Penn State (I don't think either of those teams are as good as WVU), and Pitt may arguably be one of the worst P5 teams in college basketball.

The games @USC Trojans, vs Arizona in Pheonix, and @Kansas (later in the middle of conference play) however are just about as difficult a murderer's row of non-conference games that you could schedule. I'm just hoping we can go 1-2 in those games. If we can do that, and go 2-0 in Brooklyn like we should, then non-conference will have been a smashing success IMO.

rosstradamas70
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OrganicAg12 said:

I had to eat Crow because I said Hogg looked worse this year compared to last after 10 min.

In all seriousness, I think the game time and being in Germany really throws a wrench in looking at stats or "rewatching" the game for wide open shots that were missed. It started at midnight at an Air Force Base in Germany!

We saw some promising things from the team and some troublesome things as well (the very poor start).

I'm glad we got the win but not taking the thrashing as evidence that we're about to skate trough non-conference unscathed.
started late morning for two teams that had only been there one extra day and had certainly not acclimated to the local time
ross skillman 70
The Collective
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I know this is difficult, but fans just need to remember it is basketball. You have to ride the highs and lows. If it turns out to be all highs during the next month and half, then jump aboard the hype train.
PJYoung
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CJS4715 said:

I know this is difficult, but fans just need to remember it is basketball. You have to ride the highs and lows.

This is a wasted sentence on TexAgs.
West Point Aggie
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PJYoung said:

CJS4715 said:

I know this is difficult, but fans just need to remember it is basketball. You have to ride the highs and lows.

This is a wasted sentence on TexAgs.


Kind of like "November football is when Aggies thrive"?
GE
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Does KenPom rank non-conference strength of schedule? I was just running through the schedules of some of the other top teams and am hard pressed to find another team that is clearly more difficult than ours.
GE
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Here are all the ranked matchups that the top 25 teams play before conference play begins:
1. Duke: #2 Michigan State
2. Michigan State: #1 Duke, #14 Notre Dame
3. Arizona: #25 Texas A&M
4. Kansas: #5 Kentucky
5. Kentucky: #4 Kansas, #21 UCLA, #16 Louisville
6. Villanova: #18 Gonzaga
7. Wichita State: #24 Baylor
8. Florida: #12 Cincinnati
9. North Carolina: None
10. USC: #25 A&M
11. West Virginia: #25 A&M
12. Cincinnati: #17 Xavier, #8 Florida, #21 UCLA
13. Miami: #15 Minnesota
14. Notre Dame: #2 Michigan State
15. Minnesota: #13 Miami
16. Louisville: #20 Purdue, #23 Seton Hall, #5 Kentucky
17. Xavier: #24 Baylor, #12 Cincinnati
18. Gonzaga: #6 Villanova
19. Northwestern: None
20. Purdue: #16 Louisville
21. UCLA: #12 Cincinnati, #5 Kentucky
22. Saint Mary's: None
23. Seton Hall: #16 Louisville
24. Baylor: #17 Xavier, #7 Wichita State
25. A&M: #11 West Virginia, #10 USC, #3 Arizona

Games that could happen via preseason tournaments:
#14 Notre Dame vs. #7 Wichita State
#21 UCLA vs. #24 Baylor
#20 Purdue vs. #6 Villanova
Either #20 Purdue OR #6 Villanova vs. #3 Arizona
#9 UNC vs. #2 Michigan State
#8 Florida vs. #18 Gonzaga
Either #8 Florida OR #18 Gonzaga vs. #1 Duke
#13 Miami vs. #10 USC

Please let me know if I missed any. Only team that has a chance to play more and higher ranked teams than us in the preseason is Gonzaga.
bobinator
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GE said:

Does KenPom rank non-conference strength of schedule? I was just running through the schedules of some of the other top teams and am hard pressed to find another team that is clearly more difficult than ours.
Yes, it's the furthest column to the right on the main page.

There are definitely some non-con's tougher than ours, but probably not many if any from major conferences. It also doesn't project out the NCSOS, it's just based on games played. So right now Columbia has the toughest schedule because they've played Villanova, his highest ranked team.

But there are some tougher ones, like look at this insanity from Texas Southern. They don't play a home game in non-conference, gotta go collect those checks.

GE
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bobinator said:

GE said:

Does KenPom rank non-conference strength of schedule? I was just running through the schedules of some of the other top teams and am hard pressed to find another team that is clearly more difficult than ours.
Yes, it's the furthest column to the right on the main page.

There are definitely some non-con's tougher than ours, but probably not many if any from major conferences. It also doesn't project out the NCSOS, it's just based on games played. So right now Columbia has the toughest schedule because they've played Villanova, his highest ranked team.

But there are some tougher ones, like look at this insanity from Texas Southern. They don't play a home game in non-conference, gotta go collect those checks.
Nevermind, I was reading it completely backwards
bobinator
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Maybe I worded that wrong. Right now Columbia has the #1 ranked non-conference schedule, because their only opponent has been Villanova, who KenPom has as the #1 ranked team (team, not NCSOS) in the country.

What I'm saying is that his NCSOS ranking doesn't project out, it's only based on games already played.

Villanova will not have a particularly high NCSOS rating.
GE
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bobinator said:

Maybe I worded that wrong. Right now Columbia has the #1 ranked non-conference schedule, because their only opponent has been Villanova, who KenPom has as the #1 ranked team (team, not NCSOS) in the country.

What I'm saying is that his NCSOS ranking doesn't project out, it's only based on games already played.

Villanova will not have a particularly high NCSOS rating.
Got it
GE
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bobinator said:

GE said:

Does KenPom rank non-conference strength of schedule? I was just running through the schedules of some of the other top teams and am hard pressed to find another team that is clearly more difficult than ours.
Yes, it's the furthest column to the right on the main page.

There are definitely some non-con's tougher than ours, but probably not many if any from major conferences. It also doesn't project out the NCSOS, it's just based on games played. So right now Columbia has the toughest schedule because they've played Villanova, his highest ranked team.

But there are some tougher ones, like look at this insanity from Texas Southern. They don't play a home game in non-conference, gotta go collect those checks.
After reviewing the matchups in my previous post, I'm not sure it's obvious that there are any tougher than ours (among relevant teams), especially when you include the Kansas game.
Hop
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Staff
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JMJLAW said:

A "defensive clinic?" Rewatch the game and count how many wide open shots WV missed. The game was a pleasant surprise, but I'm still concerned. I will also say this team has enough talent to dig BK out of his own deficiencies.


Gotta give you credit for doubling down after Friday. After the first 10-12 minutes, it was a defensive clinic. Aside from the minute where WVA hit three straight 3's due to some bad A&M turnovers, the wide open 3's were being taken by the players A&M wanted to take open 3-pointers. Their top players were locked down.
bobinator
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Yeah, that's why I said probably not many if any from major conferences.

One thing though is that as many good teams as we play, we also play a few absolutely atrocious teams. UT-RGV, Prairie View and Savannah State will probably all be 300+ ranked teams, and Pepperdine will probably be close.
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