Anybody jumping on this action?

3,526 Views | 19 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by GE
JJxvi
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AG
25/1 up from 300/1. Smart money's on Texas.

GE
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AG
I did put $100 on A&M at 75:1 at the NYNY a couple weeks ago..

Next time a sip says we have delusional fans send them this. The football one usually looks similar.
bobinator
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AG
I don't think I'd ever bet on anyone winning the college basketball championship. Seems like a waste of money.
PlanoAg98
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AG
We should have a very good team this year. All it takes is a good run and a favorable bracket.... kinda like what happened with baseball to get us to Omaha where we didn't belong. A good run and a favorable bracket could get the Ags into the S16 or E8 and then who knows.
Pumpkinhead
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AG
bobinator said:

I don't think I'd ever bet on anyone winning the college basketball championship. Seems like a waste of money.
Yeah, what a total crap shoot that is.

last March 14th after the NCAA brackets were announced, with a heck of a lot more known data that what you know in August before the season, only 3 of the 25 ESPN media folks who participated got North Carolina right as the championship winner.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18903023/expert-picks-their-final-four-national-champion-2017-ncaa-tournament
wacarnolds
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AG
Pumpkinhead said:

bobinator said:

I don't think I'd ever bet on anyone winning the college basketball championship. Seems like a waste of money.
Yeah, what a total crap shoot that is.

last March 14th after the NCAA brackets were announced, with a heck of a lot more known data that what you know in August before the season, only 3 of the 25 ESPN media folks who participated got North Carolina right as the championship winner.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18903023/expert-picks-their-final-four-national-champion-2017-ncaa-tournament

Agree that it is somewhat of a crap shoot, but picking brackets is not the same as a traditional sports wager
greg.w.h
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AG
PSA: the odds are adjusted to balance bets on each side. Sounds like a lot of Longhorns enjoyed placing bets on their team and it got Stupirbook's attention...which implies a lot.
Jeff Patel
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AG
So you think TU's new freshman Center is goin to take them to the Championship ?

TU got knocked out in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament when Kevin Durant played there his one season.

And 25/1 is smart money on TU. Comeonman .

mhayden
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Unless you are betting on Kentucky or Duke, taking any team at 80/1 or lower before the season starts is just burning money.
Pumpkinhead
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AG
wacarnolds said:

Pumpkinhead said:

bobinator said:

I don't think I'd ever bet on anyone winning the college basketball championship. Seems like a waste of money.
Yeah, what a total crap shoot that is.

last March 14th after the NCAA brackets were announced, with a heck of a lot more known data that what you know in August before the season, only 3 of the 25 ESPN media folks who participated got North Carolina right as the championship winner.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18903023/expert-picks-their-final-four-national-champion-2017-ncaa-tournament

Agree that it is somewhat of a crap shoot, but picking brackets is not the same as a traditional sports wager
Although I've never gambled, I get that there is an art to finding the 'value' in bets.

Extreme case, if the odds were 10,000,000 to 1 that A&M wins a basketball natty, sure I might go ahead and throw a dollar at that even though that ain't much different than me walking into a 7-11 and hoping to hit the Powerball number on a lottery ticket. I would be willing to throw a couple of bucks in the trash on the miniscule chance that early retirement would jump out of the trash can and say hello.

On the other hand, somebody placing money right now on a 25-1 bet that Longhorns win title...that must be folks with so much money that they are like Brewsters Millions just trying to find ways to get rid of it.
Pumpkinhead
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AG
Besides the longhorns, notice that the Missouri tigers went from 300-1 to 40-1.
mhayden
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The difference in those two scenarios is that if you got A&M at 10,000,000 to 1 and they simply made the tournament, you could hedge your wager with the other 63 teams in the dance to guarantee you profit.

Obviously that scenario is not going to occur, but a sports future has a value and odds that fluctuate where you have the opportunity to hedge, whereas a powerball lottery number really doesn't.
Pumpkinhead
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AG
free_mhayden said:

The difference in those two scenarios is that if you got A&M at 10,000,000 to 1 and they simply made the tournament, you could hedge your wager with the other 63 teams in the dance to guarantee you profit.

Obviously that scenario is not going to occur, but a sports future has a value and odds that fluctuate where you have the opportunity to hedge, whereas a powerball lottery number really doesn't.
Yeah, I also get that guys who really are in the business of gambling are pretty deep into hedging strategies and such.

Now on TexAgs, the type of bet hedging seems like I often see is the 'Put money on [whoever we are playing in basketball or football next]. If Ags lose, I make money. If Ags win, it was money well spent.' variety.
Method Man
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bobinator said:

I don't think I'd ever bet on anyone winning the college basketball championship. Seems like a waste of money.


The best bet ever was UNLV that lost to Duke.
GE
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AG
free_mhayden said:

The difference in those two scenarios is that if you got A&M at 10,000,000 to 1 and they simply made the tournament, you could hedge your wager with the other 63 teams in the dance to guarantee you profit.

Obviously that scenario is not going to occur, but a sports future has a value and odds that fluctuate where you have the opportunity to hedge, whereas a powerball lottery number really doesn't.
Weird question you might know the answer to:

Say A&M makes the elite 8 and I'm in possession of my $100 voucher with them at 75:1 odds to win the national championship. Before the elite 8 is played, is there any way for me to monetize the difference in odds of A&M winning at the time I entered into the bet and the odds when we're one of the last 8 teams standing?

There is clearly value there, I just don't know if a secondary market exists or if there would be other bets you could enter into to come to the same result.
LawHall88
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AG
Quote:

Texas A&M | Odds: 100/1

Texas A&M was mostly irrelevant in 2016 after a "growing year." The Aggies went 16-15 and 8-10 in SEC play. Not great.

The bright side: Texas A&M returns four of five starters and boasts a bona fide lottery-quality player in Robert Williams, who turned down a chance at millions to boost his draft stock. With Williams and big man Tyler Davis, the Aggies have as formidable a front line as any SEC foe.

The only question mark is at point guard, where Admon Gilder (who is better equipped to play off the ball) spent a lot of his efforts at last season. If 2017 signee T.J. Starks or redshirt freshman J.J. Caldwell can take the reins, Gilder could be free to drop 3s. If A&M get a positive answer at the point, it could launch the Aggies into SEC contention and provide good value at 100/1.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-title-odds-oklahoma-ucla-among-five-best-under-the-radar-bets-for-2017-18/
mhayden
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GE said:

free_mhayden said:

The difference in those two scenarios is that if you got A&M at 10,000,000 to 1 and they simply made the tournament, you could hedge your wager with the other 63 teams in the dance to guarantee you profit.

Obviously that scenario is not going to occur, but a sports future has a value and odds that fluctuate where you have the opportunity to hedge, whereas a powerball lottery number really doesn't.
Weird question you might know the answer to:

Say A&M makes the elite 8 and I'm in possession of my $100 voucher with them at 75:1 odds to win the national championship. Before the elite 8 is played, is there any way for me to monetize the difference in odds of A&M winning at the time I entered into the bet and the odds when we're one of the last 8 teams standing?

There is clearly value there, I just don't know if a secondary market exists or if there would be other bets you could enter into to come to the same result.

Sure, a number of ways you could do it:

1) Find an online sportsbook (or talk to multiple Vegas sportsbook managers) and get a quoted odds/price on "The Field vs A&M" to win the title. You'll be laying a lot of chalk (as you're betting on any of the other 7 teams to win it all), but it would be less than the 75:1 bet you're holding so you could hedge for guaranteed profit.

2) Bet each of the other 7 teams individually to win it all. You'll need to bust out a calculator to determine the right bet amounts for maximum hedge. Even better if A&M is playing the "2nd day" of the Elite 8 as you only have to hedge 5 teams instead of 7.

3) Bet each of A&M's opponents on the moneyline each game. With this method you wouldn't be able to make an exact hedge as you wouldn't know if you'd be wagering just 1 game or 3 and you wouldn't know the odds on game 2 and 3 (though at that point in the tournament estimating what the moneyline/spread between two teams in the next round isn't difficult), but it would allow you to guarantee some money and still see how things play out each round. (eg. bet $2000 to win $1700 on Team X beating A&M in the Elite 8... If they win you make $1700, if they lose then you've still got $5500 of your original bet available to do something similar betting on A&M's opponent in the Final 4, etc...)



If you're already in the Final Four I'd choose options 1/2... If you're looking to make a move in the Elite 8, I'd probably choose option 3 simply from a fan standpoint and being able to still root for A&M but have a nice $2-$3k profit cushion even if they lose.
GE
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AG
Cool. Bookmarked for when we get there this season.
LonghornsNo1
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Us at 25 to 1 might be the worst prop bet I've ever seen or even heard of. There is literally more equity in wiping your arse with any money you might think about laying on that.
mgmgrand
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bobinator said:

I don't think I'd ever bet on anyone winning the college basketball championship. Seems like a waste of money.
Sober me agrees, but it didn't stop me from laying $20 on us at 100:1 back at the Venetian in April
GE
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AG
mgmgrand said:

bobinator said:

I don't think I'd ever bet on anyone winning the college basketball championship. Seems like a waste of money.
Sober me agrees, but it didn't stop me from laying $20 on us at 100:1 back at the Venetian in April
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