Jerry Palm's Latest "Early" Bracketology

4,722 Views | 43 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by LouisvilleAg
miller0926
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/too-early-for-bracketology-dont-be-ridiculous-and-enjoy-end-of-july-madness/amp/

We back. Got us in there as an 8 seed.

Other SEC seeds:
Kentucky a 1
Florida a 3
Bama a 7
Mizzou a 9
Arkansas a 10

Our OOC teams:
Arizona the number 1 overall
Kansas a 1
USC a 3
West Virginia a 3
GE
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If we are an 8 seed I'll be very disappointed but still happy to be back in the tourney
greg.w.h
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He should call his bracketology "Palm Reading" as a matter of truth in advertising.
Leander - Ag
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We can do better than that
Belton Ag
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Leander - Ag said:

We can do better than that
We can and should, but I'm not sure this staff has it in them to do better.
bobinator
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GE said:

If we are an 8 seed I'll be very disappointed but still happy to be back in the tourney


Yeah, an 8 would be a really disappointing regular season, but dancing is dancing.
miller0926
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Ya I agree it would be a tad disappointing. 8/9 seeds would technically be those teams right on the outside of the Top 25. This is just the first time I've seen us included in one of these "way too early" brackets this season and got me excited.

Also wanted to point out how legit our SOS should be and inflated our RPI could get if we somehow steal one of these on the road (Still kinda pissed that Arizona loss will go in as a Neutral loss). Throw in the fact that Mizzou won't be a trash sub-250 RPI on our resume twice and instead hopefully a contender. I'm super hyped already for this season.
Hop
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I'm not convinced that Porter elevates Mizzou from doormat to a 9 seed.
Serious Lee
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what about when his little bro reclassifies?
Mikeyshooter
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I'd be happy just to get in but 4 seed or better should be the goal.
AggieTFA06
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We certainly have the talent to do better, but we don't have the coaching. However, considering how going to the NCAA tournament is rare under Kennedy, getting to the tournament would be a HUGE accomplishment for him.
To 1,000,000 touchdowns ...and beyond
Method Man
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Hop said:

I'm not convinced that Porter elevates Mizzou from doormat to a 9 seed.


Everyone severely rates the impact of a Great freshman.
mallen
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Method Man said:

Hop said:

I'm not convinced that Porter elevates Mizzou from doormat to a 9 seed.


Everyone severely rates the impact of a Great freshman.


Two years ago Ben Simmons (LSU) and Malik Newmann (Miss St) didn't move the needle for either of those programs. Newman was the top rated PG in the country out of high school. LSU actually regressed, having advanced to the 2nd round of the NCAA the year before Simmons. We all witnessed the Aggies humiliate Simmons and the Tigers in the SEC tourney, ending any small hopes they had of making the NCAA tournament.
Pumpkinhead
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mallen said:

Method Man said:

Hop said:

I'm not convinced that Porter elevates Mizzou from doormat to a 9 seed.


Everyone severely rates the impact of a Great freshman.


Two years ago Ben Simmons (LSU) and Malik Newmann (Miss St) didn't move the needle for either of those programs. Newman was the top rated PG in the country out of high school. LSU actually regressed, having advanced to the 2nd round of the NCAA the year before Simmons. We all witnessed the Aggies humiliate Simmons and the Tigers in the SEC tourney, ending any small hopes they had of making the NCAA tournament.
The fall of LSU that season was more due to team chemistry and off-court problems and the coaching staff's inability to fix that, than to do with the talent. LSU absolutely had the talent to be an NCAA team that year.
DeangeloVickers
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Just getting rid of Kim might elevate them to a 9

I really think he might be the worst head coach I've seen
Pumpkinhead
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AggieTFA06 said:

We certainly have the talent to do better, but we don't have the coaching. However, considering how going to the NCAA tournament is rare under Kennedy, getting to the tournament would be a HUGE accomplishment for him.
I don't think getting this roster to the NCAA tournament would be a 'HUGE' accomplishment. It is a top-25-ish quality roster and based on talent alone the expectation level should be no worse than a 5 or 6-seed in the tournament. A&M's strength of schedule also is going to be very good. will be plenty of opportunities to build up a good NCAA resume.

I feel as confident about this team making the NCAA tournament as I did about the 2015-2016 Sweet Sixteen bunch. Which is very confident. Barring a ton of injuries, the schedule is strong and the roster is simply is too loaded and balanced, and has plenty of upper-classmen in the core rotation (in this case seniors Wilson and Trocha and juniors Gilder, Davis, and Hogg). And there are no signs of any major head case drama issues that might derail things. Unlikely in my opinion that they will miss the NCAA tournament.

The only question in my mind is whether this team reaches what its potential should be...which is at least a top-5 seed and a team that makes it to the second weekend of the tournament.
Method Man
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A huge accomplishment for Kennedy. He's done it three times in like 20 years
_lefraud_
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Method Man said:

Hop said:

I'm not convinced that Porter elevates Mizzou from doormat to a 9 seed.


Everyone severely rates the impact of a Great freshman.

The 'Melo Effect
Pumpkinhead
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Method Man said:

A huge accomplishment for Kennedy. He's done it three times in like 20 years


If he had rosters like the 2015-2016 and 2017-2018 rosters for every one of those 20 seasons then he probably would have made NCAA like 17 out of those 20 seasons.

We are not going to give next year's team a 15% chance of making NCAA because of BK's 3 out of 20 history. Doesn't work like that.

And you also think that we will make NCAA next season Method. So no need to argue when we already agree.
greg.w.h
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Pumpkinhead said:

Method Man said:

A huge accomplishment for Kennedy. He's done it three times in like 20 years


If he had rosters like the 2015-2016 and 2017-2018 rosters for every one of those 20 seasons then he probably would have made NCAA like 17 out of those 20 seasons.

We are not going to give next year's team a 15% chance of making NCAA because of BK's 3 out of 20 history. Doesn't work like that.

And you also think that we will make NCAA next season Method. So no need to argue when we already agree.


Most of us have submitted to the group censorship of mentioning BK's coaching of late. Whether we mention it or not he is likely to be on the bench, likely to be putting weird rotations together, likely to not use time outs in an effective manner to manage momentum, likely to favor seniors like Trocha no matter how they produce (or more importantly defend or screen if they can't reliably score.)

Method's mention was overdue even if we all believe the talent is more than sufficient. Given the coaching, an eight seed is entirely plausible if not a play-in 10. I'd like to believe otherwise, but it is plausible due to late season slumps regularly keeping BK and team out of the NCAAs when they arguably were within reach.
Pumpkinhead
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greg.w.h said:

Pumpkinhead said:

Method Man said:

A huge accomplishment for Kennedy. He's done it three times in like 20 years


If he had rosters like the 2015-2016 and 2017-2018 rosters for every one of those 20 seasons then he probably would have made NCAA like 17 out of those 20 seasons.

We are not going to give next year's team a 15% chance of making NCAA because of BK's 3 out of 20 history. Doesn't work like that.

And you also think that we will make NCAA next season Method. So no need to argue when we already agree.


Most of us have submitted to the group censorship of mentioning BK's coaching of late. Whether we mention it or not he is likely to be on the bench, likely to be putting weird rotations together, likely to not use time outs in an effective manner to manage momentum, likely to favor seniors like Trocha no matter how they produce (or more importantly defend or screen if they can't reliably score.)

Method's mention was overdue even if we all believe the talent is more than sufficient. Given the coaching, an eight seed is entirely plausible if not a play-in 10. I'd like to believe otherwise, but it is plausible due to late season slumps regularly keeping BK and team out of the NCAAs when they arguably were within reach.
Obviously it is 'plausible' that next year's team won't make the NCAA tournament.

That said, several of the top-8 or 9 guys in the rotation next season (Wilson/Davis/Gilder/Hogg/Trocha), they all have already played on an NCAA tournament team. They have been there done that. So I doubt they will think simply making the NCAA next season is the goal. Not with the roster that they will have.

If this 2017-2018 team gets into the NCAA with a poor to mediocre seed (#8 or worse) and then gets bounced in first game, I would personally be a fan who would still be disappointed in the season. I would not come anywhere close to feeling like that accomplishment was 'Huge'.
Hop
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Ryno01 said:

Just getting rid of Kim might elevate them to a 9

I really think he might be the worst head coach I've seen


But Cuonzo?
mhayden
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Goals, expectations and likely outcomes are all different things.
greg.w.h
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Didn't go this year. Untested talent at guards and another graduate transfer at point just like Hampton. Same talent other than that. SHOULD exceed last year and the S16 trip if the guards prove out. But very inconsistent coaching. Which is why a palmist would project an eight.
zooguy96
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Cuonzo made the elite 8 when he had 3 NBA players he didn't recruit.

He's not that good of a coach. Kennedy-esque.
Serious Lee
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hes a bad coach but people are underestimating their talent. and no experience at point? terrence phillips may be the best returning PG in the league. i look at mizzou like a 2008 kansas state team with 2 elite talents in beasley and walker but a questionable coach.
Pumpkinhead
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zooguy96 said:

Cuonzo made the elite 8 when he had 3 NBA players he didn't recruit.

He's not that good of a coach. Kennedy-esque.
I remember the Tennessee Vols fans and boosters apparently being very upset with Cuonzo Martin's last year there in 2013-2014. That Tennessee team finished with an 11-7 record in the SEC and made the NCAA Sweet Sixteen (two of the SEC losses were to the Aggies because of Antwan Space last second threes), but the fans felt the team had underachieved. Plus Bruce Pearl's NCAA show-cause was coming to an end and there seemed to be a movement to bring Pearl back. If I recall correctly, several thousand Vols fans signed a petition to bring back Pearl and boosters went out of their way to give Martin hints that he wasn't welcome by no longer letting him use their private plane(s) for recruiting trips, and so forth.

Ironically, Martin splits for Cal Bears after that season and in three seasons there makes the NIT once and the NCAA tournament once (in 2015-2016).

Meanwhile, since then, in three seasons under first Donnie Tyndall (1 season) and Rick Barnes (2 seasons)...Tennessee has yet to even get to the NIT. And in those same three seasons Auburn who hired Bruce Pearl also has yet to even get to the NIT.

Tennessee under Tyndall and Barnes looked pretty well coached and played hard (IMO) but the roster talent simply was not there. Pearl has been recruiting really well at Auburn per the recruiting rankings, but it has often been a mix-mash of transfers and JUCO's with high school recruits that just hasn't had a team yet that meshed very well.

If Missouri was to actually get back to the NCAA in Martin's first season there, while Tennessee and Auburn continued to sit the post-season out, that would continue the irony.

I agree that Martin's coaching looks pretty suspect...but the dude does seem to know how to play the recruiting game.
bobinator
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Cuonzo seems like a standard good-but-not-great coach. But I also don't think a couple of players can carry Missouri to the NCAA Tournament. I think they'll eat too many conference losses probably.
Pumpkinhead
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bobinator said:

Cuonzo seems like a standard good-but-not-great coach. But I also don't think a couple of players can carry Missouri to the NCAA Tournament. I think they'll eat too many conference losses probably.
Here is Bill C's write-up on Missouri basketball from a couple of days ago. I think we can all agree that Mizzou will definitely be better and not an SEC bottom feeder (somebody like LSU will now probably claim the worst-team-in-SEC title). We'll see how much better.

Per Bill C, Mizzou is going to have a ton more size.

https://www.rockmnation.com/2017/7/29/16054900/missouri-basketball-roster-size-jeremiah-tilmon-michael-porter-jontay-porter
Pumpkinhead
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greg.w.h said:

Didn't go this year. Untested talent at guards and another graduate transfer at point just like Hampton. Same talent other than that. SHOULD exceed last year and the S16 trip if the guards prove out. But very inconsistent coaching. Which is why a palmist would project an eight.

The Rothstein comment below (posted by Gunnysack on another thread) is a good example of why I personally think this 2017-2018 team will more likely than not make the NCAA tournament. On paper, this roster looks more similar to the 2015-2016 roster that made the NCAA Sweet Sixteen in terms of experience and talent (with no glaring hole at any position) than any of the Kennedy teams that missed the NCAA.

This SHOULD be a top-25 quality team that comfortably gets an NCAA bid just like the 2015-2016 bunch. While I would not consider simply making the NCAA tournament a 'HUGE' accomplishment, I would definitely consider it a 'HUGE' disappointment if they did not make the Dance.

The roster simply looks too good...on paper...to be satisfied with an expectation of merely getting an NCAA bid.

https://www.fanragsports.com/cbb/rothstein-files-sec-offseason-notebook/


Quote:

3. Which off-the-radar player could have a major impact?
Quote:


J.J. Caldwell.
Several SEC coaches told FanRag Sports this summer that they believe Texas A&M will win the league outright the main reason for that is Caldwell. The Aggies limped to a 16-15 record last season and a 16-14 assist-to-turnover ratio because Caldwell was ruled a partial qualifier by the NCAA, leaving Billy Kennedy with no top-flight options at point guard. That won't be a problem this season. With Caldwell, Admon Gilder, D.J. Hogg, Robert Williams, Tyler Davis, Tonny Trocha-Morelos, Marquette grad transfer Duane Wilson, and top-100 wing Savion Flagg, Texas A&M has the best collection of experience and talent in the SEC. With Caldwell steering the ship, this looks like a Sweet 16-caliber team on paper.

West Point Aggie
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Brackettology in July...lol...meaningful!
jml2621
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bobinator said:

Cuonzo seems like a standard good-but-not-great coach. But I also don't think a couple of players can carry Missouri to the NCAA Tournament. I think they'll eat too many conference losses probably.

Great recruiter and game prep. Lousy game coach.

jml2621
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4th seed talent. 8th seed coaching.
GrayMatter
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Quote:

The roster simply looks too good...on paper...to be satisfied with an expectation of merely getting an NCAA bid.
If you have been following the team and their tweets, I think they're expectations and goals are a lot loftier than some of ours. Their "do more" campaign is all about exceeding expectations so no, they will not be satisfied with with just receiving an NCAA bid.
bobinator
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Well I'd sure hope so.

"Just make it" would be a pretty bad team motto.
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