Who will JJ Caldwell have to be as good as for this team to be elite?

6,456 Views | 77 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by bobinator
GE
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Former Aggie players only.

I say Dash Harris in his prime before injury.
bobinator
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That's the pretty obvious one right? He's a perfect not particularly bad but not particularly good point guard. All the rest have either been really good (Sloan, Law, Caruso) or bad (everyone else.)

Maybe Bobby Leach?
Method Man
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Dario Quesada
wacarnolds
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how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
EKG1996
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IMO need more than Dash for this team to be elite.

Final four team with David Edwards.
GE
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wacarnolds said:

how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
Top 10 nationally heading into the conference tournament.
wacarnolds
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GE said:

wacarnolds said:

how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
Top 10 nationally heading into the conference tournament.
I don't think we will be top 10 if our main ball handler is the worst offensive player in the conference (as Dash was during his prime).

Maybe the sophomore version of Acie Law. Or Anthony Collins.
GE
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wacarnolds said:

GE said:

wacarnolds said:

how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
Top 10 nationally heading into the conference tournament.
I don't think we will be top 10 if our main ball handler is the worst offensive player in the conference (as Dash was during his prime).

Maybe the sophomore version of Acie Law. Or Anthony Collins.
I don't remember Dash being that bad. He couldn't shoot but I don't remember him turning the ball over a lot and I think he could penetrate some.
wacarnolds
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GE said:

wacarnolds said:

GE said:

wacarnolds said:

how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
Top 10 nationally heading into the conference tournament.
I don't think we will be top 10 if our main ball handler is the worst offensive player in the conference (as Dash was during his prime).

Maybe the sophomore version of Acie Law. Or Anthony Collins.
I don't remember Dash being that bad. He couldn't shoot but I don't remember him turning the ball over a lot and I think he could penetrate some.
Using offensive rating as a rough approximation of offensive ability, Dash ranked #77 out of 78 his sophomore year and #72 out of 72 his junior year. That's for all guys in the Big 12 that played 40% of the time or more.
bobinator
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wacarnolds said:

GE said:

wacarnolds said:

how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
Top 10 nationally heading into the conference tournament.
I don't think we will be top 10 if our main ball handler is the worst offensive player in the conference (as Dash was during his prime).

Maybe the sophomore version of Acie Law. Or Anthony Collins.
Junior year dash on this team would be close to a top ten team.

He ran point on that team which got to the NCAA's and this team is significantly better at every other position than that one except probably the three. Though you could make a decent case that a junior Hogg will probably be better than a sophomore Middleton.

We ran this starting lineup out for an NCAA Tournament game...

Dash Harris
B.J. Holmes
Khris Middleton
Nathan Walkup
David Loubeau
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

wacarnolds said:

GE said:

wacarnolds said:

how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
Top 10 nationally heading into the conference tournament.
I don't think we will be top 10 if our main ball handler is the worst offensive player in the conference (as Dash was during his prime).

Maybe the sophomore version of Acie Law. Or Anthony Collins.
Junior year dash on this team would be close to a top ten team.

He ran point on that team which got to the NCAA's and this team is significantly better at every other position than that one except probably the three. Though you could make a decent case that a junior Hogg will probably be better than a sophomore Middleton.

We ran this starting lineup out for an NCAA Tournament game...

Dash Harris
B.J. Holmes
Khris Middleton
Nathan Walkup
David Loubeau
They made the NCAA tournament, yes, but they were unranked going into the conference tournament. There's obviously a large gap between making the tournament and top 10 team, maybe the surrounding talent is that much better now.

How many top 10 teams have bad PGs?
bobinator
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There's a lot of variables here though that make this hypothetical hard to nail down.

Like, if J.J. Caldwell statistically has a similar year to junior year Dash Harris, then yeah, we probably aren't elite. But that's not really what we're saying, it's about the actual person and not their statistical results right?

If junior year Dash Harris was on this team, he would basically never shoot and he'd essentially just pass the ball on offense and be a defensive specialist. So his numbers would be quite a bit different.

And this year's team is WAY better at the 2, 4 and 5 positions than that one. That team was a 7 seed, so top 28, I don't think it's crazy to think that replacing that lineup with Harris - Gilder - Hogg - Williams - Davis and our current bench would be a top-ten team.
Jeff84
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Dave Goff!
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

There's a lot of variables here though that make this hypothetical hard to nail down.

Like, if J.J. Caldwell statistically has a similar year to junior year Dash Harris, then yeah, we probably aren't elite. But that's not really what we're saying, it's about the actual person and not their statistical results right?

If junior year Dash Harris was on this team, he would basically never shoot and he'd essentially just pass the ball on offense and be a defensive specialist. So his numbers would be quite a bit different.

And this year's team is WAY better at the 2, 4 and 5 positions than that one. That team was a 7 seed, so top 28, I don't think it's crazy to think that replacing that lineup with Harris - Gilder - Hogg - Williams - Davis and our current bench would be a top-ten team.
Do you think Caldwell can be a lock down defender on the perimeter?
bobinator
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No clue, we'll have to see. But that's part of what made Dash better than his numbers.
bobinator
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I should add that I left Alex Caruso off of the list of good point guards, which was an obvious oversight.
jml2621
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wacarnolds said:

bobinator said:

There's a lot of variables here though that make this hypothetical hard to nail down.

Like, if J.J. Caldwell statistically has a similar year to junior year Dash Harris, then yeah, we probably aren't elite. But that's not really what we're saying, it's about the actual person and not their statistical results right?

If junior year Dash Harris was on this team, he would basically never shoot and he'd essentially just pass the ball on offense and be a defensive specialist. So his numbers would be quite a bit different.

And this year's team is WAY better at the 2, 4 and 5 positions than that one. That team was a 7 seed, so top 28, I don't think it's crazy to think that replacing that lineup with Harris - Gilder - Hogg - Williams - Davis and our current bench would be a top-ten team.
Do you think Caldwell can be a lock down defender on the perimeter?

We could play a 2 headed monster with Caldwell and Starks. Chandler is a combo/SG but that provide athletic instant offense guard support. He's a scorer.

JJ can pass, but I'm concerned that defenders may slough off of him and double team inside unless JJ hits and outside shot.
bobinator
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They're absolutely going to do that, even if he does have a decent outside shot, what choice do they have?
greg.w.h
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I'll take Sloan with an outside shot.
greg.w.h
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I'd be fine with him exceeding Law...for that matter.
Hop
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bobinator said:

wacarnolds said:

GE said:

wacarnolds said:

how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
Top 10 nationally heading into the conference tournament.
I don't think we will be top 10 if our main ball handler is the worst offensive player in the conference (as Dash was during his prime).

Maybe the sophomore version of Acie Law. Or Anthony Collins.
Junior year dash on this team would be close to a top ten team.

He ran point on that team which got to the NCAA's and this team is significantly better at every other position than that one except probably the three. Though you could make a decent case that a junior Hogg will probably be better than a sophomore Middleton.

We ran this starting lineup out for an NCAA Tournament game...

Dash Harris
B.J. Holmes
Khris Middleton
Nathan Walkup
David Loubeau



You've got to be kidding? Dash Harris was an extremely limited point guard and it goes far beyond no outside shot. He had no strength or muscle mass. The few times he drove the lane he was crumbled up like a wad of paper and discarded. He was quick on defense and he dribbled well on the perimeter and could beat a trap. That was it. He couldn't collapse a defense driving the hole and he couldn't extend the defense with his outside shot, so he was very, very limited. Caldwell and Starks will be 10x better on the offensive end. We don't know yet what they will do defensively.
TxAg76
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I'm with Hop on this one
(re: Harris)
Hop
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jml2621 said:

wacarnolds said:

bobinator said:

There's a lot of variables here though that make this hypothetical hard to nail down.

Like, if J.J. Caldwell statistically has a similar year to junior year Dash Harris, then yeah, we probably aren't elite. But that's not really what we're saying, it's about the actual person and not their statistical results right?

If junior year Dash Harris was on this team, he would basically never shoot and he'd essentially just pass the ball on offense and be a defensive specialist. So his numbers would be quite a bit different.

And this year's team is WAY better at the 2, 4 and 5 positions than that one. That team was a 7 seed, so top 28, I don't think it's crazy to think that replacing that lineup with Harris - Gilder - Hogg - Williams - Davis and our current bench would be a top-ten team.
Do you think Caldwell can be a lock down defender on the perimeter?

We could play a 2 headed monster with Caldwell and Starks. Chandler is a combo/SG but that provide athletic instant offense guard support. He's a scorer.

JJ can pass, but I'm concerned that defenders may slough off of him and double team inside unless JJ hits and outside shot.



Ideally you'd like a point that can shoot outside to keep defenders honest like you said, but lack of perimeter shot can be overcome with elite passing skills, elite ball handling, etc. Caldwell is so quick that he can still beat his man if his man slacks off a step. It also creates opportunities at other perimeter spots. Rondo was very successful in the NBA and he had a marginal perimeter shot.
jml2621
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Hop said:

jml2621 said:

wacarnolds said:

bobinator said:

There's a lot of variables here though that make this hypothetical hard to nail down.

Like, if J.J. Caldwell statistically has a similar year to junior year Dash Harris, then yeah, we probably aren't elite. But that's not really what we're saying, it's about the actual person and not their statistical results right?

If junior year Dash Harris was on this team, he would basically never shoot and he'd essentially just pass the ball on offense and be a defensive specialist. So his numbers would be quite a bit different.

And this year's team is WAY better at the 2, 4 and 5 positions than that one. That team was a 7 seed, so top 28, I don't think it's crazy to think that replacing that lineup with Harris - Gilder - Hogg - Williams - Davis and our current bench would be a top-ten team.
Do you think Caldwell can be a lock down defender on the perimeter?

We could play a 2 headed monster with Caldwell and Starks. Chandler is a combo/SG but that provide athletic instant offense guard support. He's a scorer.

JJ can pass, but I'm concerned that defenders may slough off of him and double team inside unless JJ hits and outside shot.



Ideally you'd like a point that can shoot outside to keep defenders honest like you said, but lack of perimeter shot can be overcome with elite passing skills, elite ball handling, etc. Caldwell is so quick that he can still beat his man if his man slacks off a step. It also creates opportunities at other perimeter spots. Rondo was very successful in the NBA and he had a marginal perimeter shot.

It depends - If the defense collapses, then finding passing angles is difficult for a short guard, even if elite, with no D-1 experience. You need patience and run the kind of offense I hate to say UNC does. Having multiple ball handlers will help.

You have to CREAT SPACE. Hitting outside shots does that. If RW or Davis can consistently hit that 10-12 footer, that creates space. Opens up the dribble drive that Starks, Chandler, Admon can run.

We need better ball screens, screens of the ball...to get Admon, Hogg, Creat space. Make the defense pay. Then the D might come out high, hedge on screens. THEN go for the dribble drive and floater , lay-up or pass for an RW dunk.

Score off defense and the semi-break.

Having RW play high post allows his to receive a pass without much danger of a steal..he can drive, shoot, pr pass to Davis.


I'm as interested in Chandler as a defender. Our guards generated very few steals last year. Poo 3FG5, too. BK teams score off the defense to make up for a lower % of 3s. We don't defend the 3 well either, because our guy peels off to help with the dribble drive...leaving someone with open for the 3pt J. ...and 1s inside also help the fact we sometimes trade 2s for 3s.




jml2621
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Hop said:

jml2621 said:

wacarnolds said:

bobinator said:

There's a lot of variables here though that make this hypothetical hard to nail down.

Like, if J.J. Caldwell statistically has a similar year to junior year Dash Harris, then yeah, we probably aren't elite. But that's not really what we're saying, it's about the actual person and not their statistical results right?

If junior year Dash Harris was on this team, he would basically never shoot and he'd essentially just pass the ball on offense and be a defensive specialist. So his numbers would be quite a bit different.

And this year's team is WAY better at the 2, 4 and 5 positions than that one. That team was a 7 seed, so top 28, I don't think it's crazy to think that replacing that lineup with Harris - Gilder - Hogg - Williams - Davis and our current bench would be a top-ten team.
Do you think Caldwell can be a lock down defender on the perimeter?

We could play a 2 headed monster with Caldwell and Starks. Chandler is a combo/SG but that provide athletic instant offense guard support. He's a scorer.

JJ can pass, but I'm concerned that defenders may slough off of him and double team inside unless JJ hits and outside shot.



Ideally you'd like a point that can shoot outside to keep defenders honest like you said, but lack of perimeter shot can be overcome with elite passing skills, elite ball handling, etc. Caldwell is so quick that he can still beat his man if his man slacks off a step. It also creates opportunities at other perimeter spots. Rondo was very successful in the NBA and he had a marginal perimeter shot.

Rondo's success was mostly on defense and passing with space. Allen and Pierce made the outside shots, KG hit the midrange.

After 2008...teams started sloughing off Rondo.


The NCAA has caught on to the simple metrics of winning by hitting the 3.



On D I would force Caldwell to pass or dribble or pass from side to side. Caldwell desperately needs a consistent step back to keep kids honest.


The most unfortunate thing about this team, besides the HC, is that it's not 10 years ago! Even Roy Williams teams these days, the PG has to hit that 3 pointer to compete for NC games. A decade ago, teams wouldn't pack in the D...Ty Lawson should roam..and a below the rim undersized center like Hanbrough could get the ball and score. Teams adjusted.


2nd Generation Ag
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My son played with JJ . His outside shot is better than you think. A good comparison would be Collins. Collins would hit enough to keep defenses honest
Pumpkinhead
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mengland said:

My son played with JJ . His outside shot is better than you think. A good comparison would be Collins. Collins would hit enough to keep defenses honest


Dash Harris was a career 31% FG, 53% FT, and 26% 3P FG in 4 years at A&M.

Those are very poor shooting percentages. I would think it likely that Caldwell isn't near that poor.
mhayden
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You can't even really understand how bad Dash was just by looking at the box scores -- defenses would slack off of him since they knew he wasn't a scoring threat and essentially play 5-on-4 against our other scorers.

Can A&M be elite without JJ Caldwell being a scoring threat? Yes it's possible as the other tools are there. But it's tough to ignore the elephant in the room - our offensive scheming under Kennedy has been absolutely putrid, so if we've got a point guard out there that isn't a legitimate threat to score, we're not going to be a Top 10 team.

We don't need him to be a stud, but he either has to be a threat to get to the rim (and the foul line), or has to be able to hit wide-open 3's. Dash couldn't do either.
bobinator
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Hop said:

bobinator said:

wacarnolds said:

GE said:

wacarnolds said:

how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
Top 10 nationally heading into the conference tournament.
I don't think we will be top 10 if our main ball handler is the worst offensive player in the conference (as Dash was during his prime).

Maybe the sophomore version of Acie Law. Or Anthony Collins.
Junior year dash on this team would be close to a top ten team.

He ran point on that team which got to the NCAA's and this team is significantly better at every other position than that one except probably the three. Though you could make a decent case that a junior Hogg will probably be better than a sophomore Middleton.

We ran this starting lineup out for an NCAA Tournament game...

Dash Harris
B.J. Holmes
Khris Middleton
Nathan Walkup
David Loubeau



You've got to be kidding? Dash Harris was an extremely limited point guard and it goes far beyond no outside shot. He had no strength or muscle mass. The few times he drove the lane he was crumbled up like a wad of paper and discarded. He was quick on defense and he dribbled well on the perimeter and could beat a trap. That was it. He couldn't collapse a defense driving the hole and he couldn't extend the defense with his outside shot, so he was very, very limited. Caldwell and Starks will be 10x better on the offensive end. We don't know yet what they will do defensively.


You know that point of the thread isn't "what PG does Caldwell compare to?" Right?

It was "what PG does he have to be as good as for us to have an elite team?"

Dash wasn't good, I literally said that. But if Caldwell is as good as a freshman as Dash was as a junior, then I think that should be good enough for us to be elite.

The whole point is that Caldwell doesn't have to be very good for us as a team to be very good.
Hop
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bobinator said:

Hop said:

bobinator said:

wacarnolds said:

GE said:

wacarnolds said:

how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
Top 10 nationally heading into the conference tournament.
I don't think we will be top 10 if our main ball handler is the worst offensive player in the conference (as Dash was during his prime).

Maybe the sophomore version of Acie Law. Or Anthony Collins.
Junior year dash on this team would be close to a top ten team.

He ran point on that team which got to the NCAA's and this team is significantly better at every other position than that one except probably the three. Though you could make a decent case that a junior Hogg will probably be better than a sophomore Middleton.

We ran this starting lineup out for an NCAA Tournament game...

Dash Harris
B.J. Holmes
Khris Middleton
Nathan Walkup
David Loubeau



You've got to be kidding? Dash Harris was an extremely limited point guard and it goes far beyond no outside shot. He had no strength or muscle mass. The few times he drove the lane he was crumbled up like a wad of paper and discarded. He was quick on defense and he dribbled well on the perimeter and could beat a trap. That was it. He couldn't collapse a defense driving the hole and he couldn't extend the defense with his outside shot, so he was very, very limited. Caldwell and Starks will be 10x better on the offensive end. We don't know yet what they will do defensively.


You know that point of the thread isn't "what PG does Caldwell compare to?" Right?

It was "what PG does he have to be as good as for us to have an elite team?"

Dash wasn't good, I literally said that. But if Caldwell is as good as a freshman as Dash was as a junior, then I think that should be good enough for us to be elite.

The whole point is that Caldwell doesn't have to be very good for us as a team to be very good.


You didn't say he wasnt good. You said he wasn't particularly good or bad indicating he was an average point guard....and that simply wasn't the case, especially on offense. His complete lack of a perimeter game along w his struggles driving to the rim and 50% FT shooting made him virtually inept on offense. Don't get me wrong, I liked Dash. We'll always have the "Cookie Monster" and he was a likable kid, but other than an occasional steal that was about it.
GE
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Hop said:

bobinator said:

Hop said:

bobinator said:

wacarnolds said:

GE said:

wacarnolds said:

how are we defining "elite" when it comes to the team?
Top 10 nationally heading into the conference tournament.
I don't think we will be top 10 if our main ball handler is the worst offensive player in the conference (as Dash was during his prime).

Maybe the sophomore version of Acie Law. Or Anthony Collins.
Junior year dash on this team would be close to a top ten team.

He ran point on that team which got to the NCAA's and this team is significantly better at every other position than that one except probably the three. Though you could make a decent case that a junior Hogg will probably be better than a sophomore Middleton.

We ran this starting lineup out for an NCAA Tournament game...

Dash Harris
B.J. Holmes
Khris Middleton
Nathan Walkup
David Loubeau



You've got to be kidding? Dash Harris was an extremely limited point guard and it goes far beyond no outside shot. He had no strength or muscle mass. The few times he drove the lane he was crumbled up like a wad of paper and discarded. He was quick on defense and he dribbled well on the perimeter and could beat a trap. That was it. He couldn't collapse a defense driving the hole and he couldn't extend the defense with his outside shot, so he was very, very limited. Caldwell and Starks will be 10x better on the offensive end. We don't know yet what they will do defensively.


You know that point of the thread isn't "what PG does Caldwell compare to?" Right?

It was "what PG does he have to be as good as for us to have an elite team?"

Dash wasn't good, I literally said that. But if Caldwell is as good as a freshman as Dash was as a junior, then I think that should be good enough for us to be elite.

The whole point is that Caldwell doesn't have to be very good for us as a team to be very good.


You didn't say he wasnt good. You said he wasn't particularly good or bad indicating he was an average point guard....and that simply wasn't the case, especially on offense. His complete lack of a perimeter game along w his struggles driving to the rim and 50% FT shooting made him virtually inept on offense. Don't get me wrong, I liked Dash. We'll always have the "Cookie Monster" and he was a likable kid, but other than an occasional steal that was about it.
He would have been a MAJOR factor on last year's team
bobinator
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He's probably bad compared to the average college basketball point but I was meaning just in our recent history. Admittedly I could have worded that better, but he's better than the bad ones we've had and worse than the good ones. For us, I'd say he's pretty average.
jml2621
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mengland said:

My son played with JJ . His outside shot is better than you think. A good comparison would be Collins. Collins would hit enough to keep defenses honest

WAT?? Collins Effective FG% was 39.5% . 24.2 3FG%. That's awful

Collins can't start at an decent high major university.
bobinator
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Pretty sure he meant Anthony Collins
jml2621
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bobinator said:

Pretty sure he meant Anthony Collins

If Caldwell can shoot 45.2% 3FG I'll be pleasantly shocked.
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