First off, I think many of us forget that Hogg is generally considered by outside observers to be the second most talented player in the program. Look at a 2018 draft projection and you will typically see two Aggies; Robert Williams in the top ten and DJ Hogg as a second rounder.
Second, I personally think that DJ doesn't need to be good at everything to be a very good player and it is best to view him in that context. He has some very obvious and sometimes frustrating holes in his game. My argument is that some of those things don't really matter because we don't need him to do those things. If he were to become a franchise player, primary option he would need to develop maybe a low post game, a better high post game, a perimeter drop step/ spin move a la Khris Middleton, etc. It would be great if he developed all of those things but I don't think that is going to happen in the next year and I think that is just fine, because he can fill a very valuable specific role.
Third, I think that a lot of people mainly remember the last five games that DJ played with a broken toe and that clouds their view of the season he had. He had his ups and downs for sure but at times he was spectacular and overall he was pretty good prior to the injury.
So, the following would be my priorities for off season development.
1. 3 point shooting. DJ will always be primarily a 3 point shooter. Last year he shot 37% on threes but was at 40% before he broke his toe. Also, if you take away the three game slump he had late November/ early December he was 36/78 (46%) over a 14 game span. Sure, I am cherry picking stats a bit but I think that is still indicative of how good he can be. In my perfect scenario, DJ will shoot 45% or so for the year. Imagine him being like Buddy Hield his senior year (as a shooter), where you have to guard him tight the minute he crosses half court all year. That will open all kinds of space all over the floor for everybody.
2. Cut down on turnovers. 2.7 per game last year which is too high. That is partly because of being asked to do too much and partly because of general carelessness with the ball. But we shouldn't forget the other side of the ratio which is the 3.4 assists per game, second on the team behind Admon. He makes a far higher percentage of quality shot creating passes than any of our other guards. Good vision, good creativity but just careless and poor judgement at time. The goal here should be 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
3. Finishing better at the rim. Some I am very specifically not asking DJ to develop any post up game or really any intermediate game. Would be great but I don't expect it to happen next year and I don't think we need it. For taller perimeter players that are uncomfortable playing with their back to the basket, there are other ways to take advantage of height mismatches. For example, we can run DJ off screens and he can pop out if the guy goes under or curl if he goes under. This is what we used to do with House (who also had no post up game) and he was pretty effective at finishing. Hogg just needs to finish stronger in these situations.
And of course shoot better from the free throw line.
I think the tricky thing about DJ is that he brings an unusual mix of skills. We tend to think that guys who shoot threes well should be able to handle the ball well and guys that are tall should be able to post up. But with DJ you get this strange package of a shooter who isn't a good ball handler but is a nifty passer and a tall guy who can't play close to the basket but is still a pretty good rebounder. It isn't the standard package but it is (potentially) still a very good package.
Your thoughts?
Second, I personally think that DJ doesn't need to be good at everything to be a very good player and it is best to view him in that context. He has some very obvious and sometimes frustrating holes in his game. My argument is that some of those things don't really matter because we don't need him to do those things. If he were to become a franchise player, primary option he would need to develop maybe a low post game, a better high post game, a perimeter drop step/ spin move a la Khris Middleton, etc. It would be great if he developed all of those things but I don't think that is going to happen in the next year and I think that is just fine, because he can fill a very valuable specific role.
Third, I think that a lot of people mainly remember the last five games that DJ played with a broken toe and that clouds their view of the season he had. He had his ups and downs for sure but at times he was spectacular and overall he was pretty good prior to the injury.
So, the following would be my priorities for off season development.
1. 3 point shooting. DJ will always be primarily a 3 point shooter. Last year he shot 37% on threes but was at 40% before he broke his toe. Also, if you take away the three game slump he had late November/ early December he was 36/78 (46%) over a 14 game span. Sure, I am cherry picking stats a bit but I think that is still indicative of how good he can be. In my perfect scenario, DJ will shoot 45% or so for the year. Imagine him being like Buddy Hield his senior year (as a shooter), where you have to guard him tight the minute he crosses half court all year. That will open all kinds of space all over the floor for everybody.
2. Cut down on turnovers. 2.7 per game last year which is too high. That is partly because of being asked to do too much and partly because of general carelessness with the ball. But we shouldn't forget the other side of the ratio which is the 3.4 assists per game, second on the team behind Admon. He makes a far higher percentage of quality shot creating passes than any of our other guards. Good vision, good creativity but just careless and poor judgement at time. The goal here should be 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.
3. Finishing better at the rim. Some I am very specifically not asking DJ to develop any post up game or really any intermediate game. Would be great but I don't expect it to happen next year and I don't think we need it. For taller perimeter players that are uncomfortable playing with their back to the basket, there are other ways to take advantage of height mismatches. For example, we can run DJ off screens and he can pop out if the guy goes under or curl if he goes under. This is what we used to do with House (who also had no post up game) and he was pretty effective at finishing. Hogg just needs to finish stronger in these situations.
And of course shoot better from the free throw line.
I think the tricky thing about DJ is that he brings an unusual mix of skills. We tend to think that guys who shoot threes well should be able to handle the ball well and guys that are tall should be able to post up. But with DJ you get this strange package of a shooter who isn't a good ball handler but is a nifty passer and a tall guy who can't play close to the basket but is still a pretty good rebounder. It isn't the standard package but it is (potentially) still a very good package.
Your thoughts?