Has Anyone Actually Seen the NBA Rookie Salary Chart?

3,963 Views | 28 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Aggie09Derek
Hop
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I never had seen it until just now. I took comments here about rookie salaries for granted as I wasn't knowledgeable of the rookie salary calculator.

Here it is...


https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/2016-nba-rookie-salaries-contracts-first-round-picks.html
[url=https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/2016-nba-rookie-salaries-contracts-first-round-picks.html][/url]
[url=https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/2016-nba-rookie-salaries-contracts-first-round-picks.html][/url]

I was surprised at how top-heavy the money is for rookies. The salary difference per slot in the later picks of the 1st round are stepped by less than two hundred thousand dollars. By the time you get to picks 8 and 9, there is a $1,000,000 slot difference in contract value.

If you are the #12 pick, the four year contract value is $10.7 million. If you are the #3 pick, the four year contract value is $21.4 million.

The rationale often used why Williams should go pro is because he'll lose a year of NBA earnings. But it appears that if a player moves from the #12 pick to the #8 pick, he'll "pay" for that year.

So I think it's compelling that financially (if you take out the risk of injury), it is advantageous to stay if you feel you can raise your draft stock from #12 to #8. And if you think you can get to #5, that's a net positive of $4.5 million. If you think you can get to #3, that's a net positive of $8.5 million, and the net positive of being the overall #1 pick is $13.7 million.

But there is a risk element and other factors involved so it isn't a slam dunk just to look at net financials, but these numbers do suggest it's a more difficult decision than previously portrayed by some for a high ceiling prospect that does have the potential to be a Top 1-5 pick.

I'm curious how others interpret this data.
TXAggie2011
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Seems it has been linked/posted several times here. Adjustments are being made to it under the new CBA so the 2016 numbers aren't fully accurate for the picture moving forward but will give a generally good idea.

Definitely will make more money moving up the draft board. But you've got some other financial considerations such as trying to get to free agency (which is where money is really made), etc.
mallen
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A relevant and important question: is Robert Williams mature enough to handle that much money at once and what is he doing to prepare himself for the financial situation he could potentially find himself in?

Many professional athletes squander millions of dollars to the point that it doesn't make a difference if your contract is 5 million or 10 million. It might all be gone in 10 years regardless.

Quote:

According to a 2009 Sports Illustrated article, 78% of National Football League (NFL) players are either bankrupt or are under financial stress within two years of retirement and an estimated 60% of National Basketball Association players go bankrupt within five years after leaving their sport.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_finances_of_professional_American_athletes
Double Diamond
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I bet with draft workouts Williams moves up. NBA people are gonna go wild over his upside see the kid from Washington last year. Didn't rebound for a front court guy. Gets in the draft camps and they go wild over him.
mhayden
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I find it very telling that a side you've argued against no less than half a dozen times on here, you're just now taking the time to google the specifics on.
TXAggie2011
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free_mhayden said:

I find it very telling that a side you've argued against no less than half a dozen times on here, you're just now taking the time to google the specifics on.


Maybe he'll do a "has anyone actually seen NCAA attendance numbers" next.
Hop
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mallen said:

A relevant and important question: is Robert Williams mature enough to handle that much money at once and what is he doing to prepare himself for the financial situation he could potentially find himself in?

Many professional athletes squander millions of dollars to the point that it doesn't make a difference if your contract is 5 million or 10 million. It might all be gone in 10 years regardless.
Well, that's a different question...but a relevant question because that's what I keep hearing. His parents and others close to the family feel he's not ready for that lifestyle. We'll see what happens.
Hop
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free_mhayden said:

I find it very telling that a side you've argued against no less than half a dozen times on here, you're just now taking the time to google the specifics on.

You just like arguing for the hell of it apparently. My position of whether Williams stays or goes has primarily been:

1) about his personal situation and his background.

2) what I'm actually hearing from people close to Robert

3) and despite 1) and 2), the odds are he'll still likely go pro.
hoya-ag
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Reason for leaving is getting to the second contract faster not necessarily rookie money even though that is nice.
TangoMike
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What's his personal discount rate? What are the premiums on an insurance policy? What would be the payout structure? Can any of it be re-captured? What are the tax shelters in delaying? How many basis points does the NBA charge for it's advising? What is their CAGR?
Hop
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hoya-ag said:

Reason for leaving is getting to the second contract faster not necessarily rookie money even though that is nice.

In any financial calculation, time value of money diminishes the future payments. And then you add in the uncertainty of what his NBA career will look four years down the road. IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.
TXAggie2011
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Hop said:

hoya-ag said:

Reason for leaving is getting to the second contract faster not necessarily rookie money even though that is nice.

In any financial calculation, time value of money diminishes the future payments. And then you add in the uncertainty of what his NBA career will look four years down the road. IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.
Yes, present value analysis will lower the value of future payments. Time value of money in the most general terms supports taking less money now over waiting for a larger payment later because you will then have an extra period(s) for the money to grow in value.

But that cuts both ways. Yes, it lowers the value of a future free agent contract. But it also lowers the value of waiting a year to sign a rookie contract.
Bunk Moreland
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We've presented the numbers time and time again.

And it's also rare that a guy who is an assumed lotto pick(if that's what RW becomes) can actually improve his draft seeding in a 2nd year. It's one more year to pick holes in his game, and it's a lot harder to go from 12 to 3 than it is to go from unknown freak athlete to 12.
superunknown
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Hop said:

IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.


Rookie scale is nice and yeah, there are huge differences in the scale for the picks as you fall later in the round, but that 2nd contract (and subsequent ones of course) is where the big money comes in. A player's cap hold is tied to his current contract but for the stars/big timers you're talking about max deals (usually maxxed at 25% of the salary cap, although it can be 30% if the player gets say, league MVP while on his rookie deal--the so called Derrick Rose rule) and considering that a max deal starts around $22 mill these days, the maximum value of the rookie deal is mitigated in my opinion.

I left out some details about rookie deals but if you really want to know how all that works, Larry Coon's NBA cba faq is outstanding. Cbafaq.com
Hop
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superunknown said:

Hop said:

IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.


Rookie scale is nice and yeah, there are huge differences in the scale for the picks as you fall later in the round, but that 2nd contract (and subsequent ones of course) is where the big money comes in. A player's cap hold is tied to his current contract but for the stars/big timers you're talking about max deals (usually maxxed at 25% of the salary cap, although it can be 30% if the player gets say, league MVP while on his rookie deal--the so called Derrick Rose rule) and considering that a max deal starts around $22 mill these days, the maximum value of the rookie deal is mitigated in my opinion.

I left out some details about rookie deals but if you really want to know how all that works, Larry Coon's NBA cba faq is outstanding. Cbafaq.com

Subsequent contracts are big if you you are one of the guys that makes it big in the league. Unlike football, a top 10 or or Top 15 pick in the NBA isn't guaranteed to be a very good NBA player in four years.
jml2621
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Hop said:

I never had seen it until just now. I took comments here about rookie salaries for granted as I wasn't knowledgeable of the rookie salary calculator.

Here it is...


https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/2016-nba-rookie-salaries-contracts-first-round-picks.html
[url=https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/2016-nba-rookie-salaries-contracts-first-round-picks.html][/url]
[url=https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/2016-nba-rookie-salaries-contracts-first-round-picks.html][/url]

I was surprised at how top-heavy the money is for rookies. The salary difference per slot in the later picks of the 1st round are stepped by less than two hundred thousand dollars. By the time you get to picks 8 and 9, there is a $1,000,000 slot difference in contract value.

If you are the #12 pick, the four year contract value is $10.7 million. If you are the #3 pick, the four year contract value is $21.4 million.

The rationale often used why Williams should go pro is because he'll lose a year of NBA earnings. But it appears that if a player moves from the #12 pick to the #8 pick, he'll "pay" for that year.

So I think it's compelling that financially (if you take out the risk of injury), it is advantageous to stay if you feel you can raise your draft stock from #12 to #8. And if you think you can get to #5, that's a net positive of $4.5 million. If you think you can get to #3, that's a net positive of $8.5 million, and the net positive of being the overall #1 pick is $13.7 million.

But there is a risk element and other factors involved so it isn't a slam dunk just to look at net financials, but these numbers do suggest it's a more difficult decision than previously portrayed by some for a high ceiling prospect that does have the potential to be a Top 1-5 pick.

I'm curious how others interpret this data.


This is like when Trump was shocked that health care was Complicated!


OF COURSE there's a HUGE difference in the rookie pay scale from say 10-13 vs top 3.

AND the Rookie pay scale gets a significant bump up next year as I've discussed previously..


Because this year's draft is so DEEP, RW WILL move way up next year. Top 5, Top 3. I predicted #1 and I'm going to stick to it.



...so there's a risk of throwing away millions of $$ be leaving too early. Take out an insurance policy.



jml2621
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Hop said:

superunknown said:

Hop said:

IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.


Rookie scale is nice and yeah, there are huge differences in the scale for the picks as you fall later in the round, but that 2nd contract (and subsequent ones of course) is where the big money comes in. A player's cap hold is tied to his current contract but for the stars/big timers you're talking about max deals (usually maxxed at 25% of the salary cap, although it can be 30% if the player gets say, league MVP while on his rookie deal--the so called Derrick Rose rule) and considering that a max deal starts around $22 mill these days, the maximum value of the rookie deal is mitigated in my opinion.

I left out some details about rookie deals but if you really want to know how all that works, Larry Coon's NBA cba faq is outstanding. Cbafaq.com

Subsequent contracts are big if you you are one of the guys that makes it big in the league. Unlike football, a top 10 or or Top 15 pick in the NBA isn't guaranteed to be a very good NBA player in four years.

Correct. D-League doesn't teach skillz. It gets players ready for a supporting role on an NBA team. Great for Jalen, but Robert Williams can be SPECIAL. Freak athlete. IF he can develop, a multiple year All Star.

RW is a nice, humble, smart, thoughtful kid. College ballers often make a huge improvement from fish to Soph year. Robert would get MAJOR coverage all year on a good Aggie team. If he stays, we can make a real run in the NCAAT. Without him, we're a bubble team. Talent and Coaching in the SEC appear to be rising exponentially.
jml2621
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hoya-ag said:

Reason for leaving is getting to the second contract faster not necessarily rookie money even though that is nice.

What if he's not ready come the second contract? No guarantee. The NBA is a man's league. Corey Maggette could have been a multiple year NBA All-Star. He had a solid NBAcareer, but left Waaaay too early...and didn't develop some skillz.

There are exceptions. The Spurs are masters at developing players and they have the Shot Doctor. That's not the case for most NBA teams, and it's only now that many are getting the type of practice facilities that major college programs already have.
TangoMike
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Hop said:

hoya-ag said:

Reason for leaving is getting to the second contract faster not necessarily rookie money even though that is nice.

In any financial calculation, time value of money diminishes the future payments. And then you add in the uncertainty of what his NBA career will look four years down the road. IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.
You'd have to do some excess return analysis, and then do a Var-CoVar table to see what the true StDev would be. I might dig up some pay data from the past several drafts today to figure it out
mhayden
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Hop said:

superunknown said:

Hop said:

IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.


Rookie scale is nice and yeah, there are huge differences in the scale for the picks as you fall later in the round, but that 2nd contract (and subsequent ones of course) is where the big money comes in. A player's cap hold is tied to his current contract but for the stars/big timers you're talking about max deals (usually maxxed at 25% of the salary cap, although it can be 30% if the player gets say, league MVP while on his rookie deal--the so called Derrick Rose rule) and considering that a max deal starts around $22 mill these days, the maximum value of the rookie deal is mitigated in my opinion.

I left out some details about rookie deals but if you really want to know how all that works, Larry Coon's NBA cba faq is outstanding. Cbafaq.com

Subsequent contracts are big if you you are one of the guys that makes it big in the league. Unlike football, a top 10 or or Top 15 pick in the NBA isn't guaranteed to be a very good NBA player in four years.

So you're saying the longer he is evaluated, the more chance that his stock could drop?
Hop
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free_mhayden said:

Hop said:

superunknown said:

Hop said:

IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.


Rookie scale is nice and yeah, there are huge differences in the scale for the picks as you fall later in the round, but that 2nd contract (and subsequent ones of course) is where the big money comes in. A player's cap hold is tied to his current contract but for the stars/big timers you're talking about max deals (usually maxxed at 25% of the salary cap, although it can be 30% if the player gets say, league MVP while on his rookie deal--the so called Derrick Rose rule) and considering that a max deal starts around $22 mill these days, the maximum value of the rookie deal is mitigated in my opinion.

I left out some details about rookie deals but if you really want to know how all that works, Larry Coon's NBA cba faq is outstanding. Cbafaq.com

Subsequent contracts are big if you you are one of the guys that makes it big in the league. Unlike football, a top 10 or or Top 15 pick in the NBA isn't guaranteed to be a very good NBA player in four years.

So you're saying the longer he is evaluated, the more chance that his stock could drop?


Clearly not what I said. You are just being a troll at this point and distracting from a good discussion. Top draft picks aren't guaranteed to be good when they get in the league. It's not a given that a mid-1st round pick will play well enough to get that big second contract.
mhayden
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Hop said:

free_mhayden said:

Hop said:

superunknown said:

Hop said:

IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.


Rookie scale is nice and yeah, there are huge differences in the scale for the picks as you fall later in the round, but that 2nd contract (and subsequent ones of course) is where the big money comes in. A player's cap hold is tied to his current contract but for the stars/big timers you're talking about max deals (usually maxxed at 25% of the salary cap, although it can be 30% if the player gets say, league MVP while on his rookie deal--the so called Derrick Rose rule) and considering that a max deal starts around $22 mill these days, the maximum value of the rookie deal is mitigated in my opinion.

I left out some details about rookie deals but if you really want to know how all that works, Larry Coon's NBA cba faq is outstanding. Cbafaq.com

Subsequent contracts are big if you you are one of the guys that makes it big in the league. Unlike football, a top 10 or or Top 15 pick in the NBA isn't guaranteed to be a very good NBA player in four years.

So you're saying the longer he is evaluated, the more chance that his stock could drop?


Clearly not what I said. You are just being a troll at this point and distracting from a good discussion. Top draft picks aren't guaranteed to be good when they get in the league. It's not a given that a mid-1st round pick will play well enough to get that big second contract.

Nor is it a given that a lottery pick will improve his stock by staying another year.

You can't assume he won't be good enough to hang around the league, but then assume that he'll raise his draft stock with another year of college. It's completely illogical.

And spare me the troll bit Hop -- you're just frustrated that multiple posters have called you out for your lack of researching topics you so adamantly argue about. Maybe don't be so antagonistic in your posting style and posters won't call you out when you look like a fool.
superunknown
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Hop said:


Subsequent contracts are big if you you are one of the guys that makes it big in the league. Unlike football, a top 10 or or Top 15 pick in the NBA isn't guaranteed to be a very good NBA player in four years.


All the more reason to take the money now and get paid while being evaluated.
Hop
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free_mhayden said:

Hop said:

free_mhayden said:

Hop said:

superunknown said:

Hop said:

IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.


Rookie scale is nice and yeah, there are huge differences in the scale for the picks as you fall later in the round, but that 2nd contract (and subsequent ones of course) is where the big money comes in. A player's cap hold is tied to his current contract but for the stars/big timers you're talking about max deals (usually maxxed at 25% of the salary cap, although it can be 30% if the player gets say, league MVP while on his rookie deal--the so called Derrick Rose rule) and considering that a max deal starts around $22 mill these days, the maximum value of the rookie deal is mitigated in my opinion.

I left out some details about rookie deals but if you really want to know how all that works, Larry Coon's NBA cba faq is outstanding. Cbafaq.com

Subsequent contracts are big if you you are one of the guys that makes it big in the league. Unlike football, a top 10 or or Top 15 pick in the NBA isn't guaranteed to be a very good NBA player in four years.

So you're saying the longer he is evaluated, the more chance that his stock could drop?


Clearly not what I said. You are just being a troll at this point and distracting from a good discussion. Top draft picks aren't guaranteed to be good when they get in the league. It's not a given that a mid-1st round pick will play well enough to get that big second contract.

Nor is it a given that a lottery pick will improve his stock by staying another year.

You can't assume he won't be good enough to hang around the league, but then assume that he'll raise his draft stock with another year of college. It's completely illogical.

And spare me the troll bit Hop -- you're just frustrated that multiple posters have called you out for your lack of researching topics you so adamantly argue about. Maybe don't be so antagonistic in your posting style and posters won't call you out when you look like a fool.


I wanted to have an innocent discussion about the NBA salary calculator and asking what people thought, and you troll. I could care less when people disagree with me. I encourage it and will defend my point if I feel it's a valid point. But that's not what this is. You are simply trolling and being a general ass which normally I've gotten used to, but you have derailed what was a good discussion thread.

Oh, and how many times did you arrogantly scoff at my inside news that Williams and his family were strongly considering coming back?
mhayden
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Hop said:

free_mhayden said:

Hop said:

free_mhayden said:

Hop said:

superunknown said:

Hop said:

IMO, it's just as important to get maximum value in this first contract.


Rookie scale is nice and yeah, there are huge differences in the scale for the picks as you fall later in the round, but that 2nd contract (and subsequent ones of course) is where the big money comes in. A player's cap hold is tied to his current contract but for the stars/big timers you're talking about max deals (usually maxxed at 25% of the salary cap, although it can be 30% if the player gets say, league MVP while on his rookie deal--the so called Derrick Rose rule) and considering that a max deal starts around $22 mill these days, the maximum value of the rookie deal is mitigated in my opinion.

I left out some details about rookie deals but if you really want to know how all that works, Larry Coon's NBA cba faq is outstanding. Cbafaq.com

Subsequent contracts are big if you you are one of the guys that makes it big in the league. Unlike football, a top 10 or or Top 15 pick in the NBA isn't guaranteed to be a very good NBA player in four years.

So you're saying the longer he is evaluated, the more chance that his stock could drop?


Clearly not what I said. You are just being a troll at this point and distracting from a good discussion. Top draft picks aren't guaranteed to be good when they get in the league. It's not a given that a mid-1st round pick will play well enough to get that big second contract.

Nor is it a given that a lottery pick will improve his stock by staying another year.

You can't assume he won't be good enough to hang around the league, but then assume that he'll raise his draft stock with another year of college. It's completely illogical.

And spare me the troll bit Hop -- you're just frustrated that multiple posters have called you out for your lack of researching topics you so adamantly argue about. Maybe don't be so antagonistic in your posting style and posters won't call you out when you look like a fool.


I wanted to have an innocent discussion about the NBA salary calculator and asking what people thought, and you troll. I could care less when people disagree with me. I encourage it and will defend my point if I feel it's a valid point. But that's not what this is. You are simply trolling and being a general ass which normally I've gotten used to, but you have derailed what was a good discussion thread.

Oh, and how many times did you arrogantly scoff at my inside news that Williams and his family were strongly considering coming back?

How is it a troll Hop? In no less than 5 previous posts you've argued with me about the financials behind Williams staying another year or going pro. Now you post that you've just now googled the NBA Rookie Salary Chart?

Seems to me the guy arguing without even bothering to research if his points are accurate is more the "troll".

As for Williams considering coming back -- again you tend to lump every single poster you argue with (which is a lot) into one... I've repeatedly stated that if Williams comes back it's because he really likes his teammates and/or A&M, not because of the financials. In this very thread you stated "the odds are he'll still likely go pro." , so don't pat yourself on the back too much for maybe being kind of right about a decision that hasn't been made yet?

Quick summation -- I'm not the guy who you argue with about Frank Martin. I'm also not the guy that says everything good that has happened here was due to Stansbury. Get a posterboard to help you out if necessary.
GrayMatter
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Hop said:

mallen said:

A relevant and important question: is Robert Williams mature enough to handle that much money at once and what is he doing to prepare himself for the financial situation he could potentially find himself in?

Many professional athletes squander millions of dollars to the point that it doesn't make a difference if your contract is 5 million or 10 million. It might all be gone in 10 years regardless.
Well, that's a different question...but a relevant question because that's what I keep hearing. His parents and others close to the family feel he's not ready for that lifestyle. We'll see what happens.
And how on earth is a 18 or 19 year old ready to deal with the ramifications of going from trying to decide between Subway or Fuego on one day and then have 10 million dollars in their bank account the next day??

The problem with sports is that everything is about now and to heck with the future. If his mama says he's not ready, he should heed her advice and stay. It doesn't matter whether next year's team is a NCAAT or NIT team, he should stay as long as he needs to in order to refine his skills as basketball player and get a college education while doing it.
superunknown
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superunknown said:

Hop said:


Subsequent contracts are big if you you are one of the guys that makes it big in the league. Unlike football, a top 10 or or Top 15 pick in the NBA isn't guaranteed to be a very good NBA player in four years.


All the more reason to take the money now and get paid while being evaluated.


So i looked up the rookie scale for the 2017 and 2018 drafts...its going up considerably. Almost $2 million more for the first pick. New tv deal and new CBA making more of a difference than i realized. So, next year's rookies and beyond will be doing even better off.
TopoTacos
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superunknown said:

superunknown said:

Hop said:


Subsequent contracts are big if you you are one of the guys that makes it big in the league. Unlike football, a top 10 or or Top 15 pick in the NBA isn't guaranteed to be a very good NBA player in four years.


All the more reason to take the money now and get paid while being evaluated.


So i looked up the rookie scale for the 2017 and 2018 drafts...its going up considerably. Almost $2 million more for the first pick. New tv deal and new CBA making more of a difference than i realized. So, next year's rookies and beyond will be doing even better off.
Add to that next year's class being projected as much shallower than this years, and I'd imagine Williams would move up a spot or two even if his game didn't improve. Is it still a gamble? Yes, but there are definitely some factors next year in his favor.
clendenin
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How about from early February...
Basketball Recruiting from premium forum

clendenin
9:03a, 2/8/17
H
AG
Robert Williams is projected to go in the mid first round, not necessarily the "lottery" which is the first 14 picks.

The difference between the 16th pick, where he is projected currently on both ESPN and CBS Sports mock draft and the top 5 that most project in a significantly weaker 2018 draft is near 8.4 million dollars in the NBA slotted draft bonus system.

Consider that Ben Simmons wont make 8.1 million dollars for any one season after being the #1 pick last year until the final year of his rookie contract and it could be very financially wise to stay another season.

I have to think that Robert and his family know the numbers better than anyone on this board and will make the right decision in May, and that could very well be another year in college.


Aggie09Derek
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Doesn't count for the fact that you are giving up a year in your non rookie contract (assuming you make it to that).

I'm thrilled he's coming back but it had nothing to do with being a better financial decision.
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