Texas A&M Realtime RPI and Predictions & SEC Kenpom Rankings (December 9th)

3,675 Views | 28 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by jml2621
Pumpkinhead
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_152_Men.html

Record: 6-2
RPI: #54
SOS: #53

Best Win: Virginia Tech (RPI #67)

Losses: USC (RPI #17), UCLA (RPI #16)

Remaining Schedule Snapshot by RPI (as of today):

@Florida (RPI #6)
@South Carolina (RPI #15)
@Arkansas (RPI #19)
Arkansas (RPI #19)
@Kentucky (RPI #24)
Kentucky (RPI #24)
Auburn (RPI #25)
@Ole Miss (RPI #26)
@West Virginia (RPI #51)
Arizona (RPI #62)
Georgia (RPI #65)
Vanderbilt (RPI #98)

Projected Record: 20-10 (11-7 conference)

KenPom National Rankings (SEC Teams)

#3 Kentucky (another year of a bunch of one-and-done freshman and future NBA first round picks...yawn)

#14 Florida (White looks the part and has a bunch of athletic players who play elite defense. If any team is going to seriously challenge Kentucky for the SEC title this season...the Gators are my current pick)

#30 Texas A&M (good but flawed team, will lose some games they shouldn't due to backcourt play, will win some games they shouldn't due to posing some unique matchup problems with their size and length, probably just making NCAA is reasonable goal for this bunch, but if all the core underclassman then come back plus adding a freed Caldwell and some other 2017 young perimeter studs...could be a team in 2017-2018 that takes A&M like Star Trek's Enterprise into the great unknown...at least the Elite Eight of the NCAA tournament).

#32 South Carolina (Year 6 of Frank...is this the season he finally makes NCAA tourney? so far so good though that Sindarious Thornwell suspension...how indefinite an 'indefinite' suspension is may play a factor in conference play)

#45 Arkansas (good? not good? good? not good? Maybe the Magic Eightball thingie can decide?)

#63 Georgia (two really good players in Frazier and Maten and then...ummm...some other guys?)

#77 Vanderbilt (lost 2 first round NBA draft picks plus head coaching change, there is some talent on roster but bumpy ride in Year 1 for Drew expected)

#82 Alabama (Year 2 of Avery and not sure what to think yet, but he does have some 2017 studs coming)

#86 Tennessee (Barnes teams seem to play really hard, but undersized and not much talent to work with)

#92 LSU (Johnny! Johnny! Johnny!)

#101 Ole Miss (Andy Kennedy had been on a good run hitting a bit of the lottery with first JUCO guard Marshall Henderson and then JUCO guard Stephan Moody...now he rolled the dice with grad transfer guard Cullen Neal who has produced some decent numbers thus far, but he is no Henderson or Moody. Frankly this team just has not looked very good thus far)

#103 Auburn (good recruiting thus far and in Year 3 of Bruce Pearl, but still struggling to play well)

#121 Miss State (good recruiting thus far, but really bad start to Year 2 of Howland, including some bizarre moments like a freshman oversleeping and missing a game and Weatherspoon's 'out for season' and then back playing 10 days later injury)

#147 Missouri (still firmly holding on to its position at the very bottom of the SEC barrel, this program isn't even a dumpster fire anymore, dumpster fire already burned out awhile back...this is just the ashes now that we are looking at with a bit of smoke)
bobinator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
For as improved as Florida looks, they haven't really beaten anyone yet. I'd say them, us and South Carolina are all in the same boat. Or rather like in the same innertube being pulled by Kentucky's speedboat.
mhayden
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Still too early for RPI to mean all that much as it's skewed by teams playing tough OOC schedules but still not winning any of those games.

Georgia has 5 wins over nobodies... but because they lost @Clemson and played Kansas on a neutral court, their RPI isn't that bad.
bobinator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's sort of the same with Ken Pom, there's a big circular effect early in the season, especially if you happen to beat someone on the road, but it's still worth checking in on and discussing.

One thing is for sure though, we could really use a win over Arizona or things are going to start getting tight.
mhayden
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bobinator said:

It's sort of the same with Ken Pom, there's a big circular effect early in the season, especially if you happen to beat someone on the road, but it's still worth checking in on and discussing.

One thing is for sure though, we could really use a win over Arizona or things are going to start getting tight.

Yesterday it was "our RPI will be fine", and now we need an (upset) win over Arizona or things are going to get tight?

The loss at home to USC was big, no matter how many like to frame it. If we don't beat Arizona, then anything worse than 2nd in conference is going to have us on the bubble.
bobinator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I said our RPI will be fine, and I meant from a strength of schedule standpoint it will be fine. I didn't say we could lose to everyone good and still make the tournament.
bobinator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Also, I don't expect that will be much of an upset. I'll be pretty surprised if the line is more than a couple of points.
Pumpkinhead
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
bobinator said:

For as improved as Florida looks, they haven't really beaten anyone yet. I'd say them, us and South Carolina are all in the same boat. Or rather like in the same innertube being pulled by Kentucky's speedboat.


Florida has wins over Seton Hsll and Miami, and lost to but looked competitive against top-10 teams Gonzaga and Duke.

They have Florida State coming up in 2 days.
bobinator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I watched them against Gonzaga and Duke, and like I said, they definitely look the part.

I agree they're probably the most likely to challenge Kentucky, but right now that's sort of like saying Robert Williams is the mostly likely player on our team to be able to jump to the moon.
Pumpkinhead
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
free_mhayden said:

bobinator said:

It's sort of the same with Ken Pom, there's a big circular effect early in the season, especially if you happen to beat someone on the road, but it's still worth checking in on and discussing.

One thing is for sure though, we could really use a win over Arizona or things are going to start getting tight.

Yesterday it was "our RPI will be fine", and now we need an (upset) win over Arizona or things are going to get tight?

The loss at home to USC was big, no matter how many like to frame it. If we don't beat Arizona, then anything worse than 2nd in conference is going to have us on the bubble.


To not be sweating selection Sunday...win all the games that we absolutely are supposed to (losing at Arky is okay but don't lose to Mizzou) go say 12-6 maybe 11-7 in conference, and say win a couple games out of Arizona, @West Virginia , Kentucky, @Kentucky, @Florida, @South Carolina. IMO that would do it in terms of definitely we are in NCAAT.

We have maybe about 6-7 'quality win' opportunities left on schedule and I think would be best to at least go 2-4 in those 6 or so. Obviously if we beat Zona then you are breathing easier, lose to zona then margin of error gets tighter.
bobinator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Yeah, I mean if we don't beat Arizona, then we're either going to have to beat Kentucky or we're going to have to beat someone good on the road to feel comfortable. That's what I meant by "getting tight"
Pumpkinhead
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
bobinator said:

It's sort of the same with Ken Pom, there's a big circular effect early in the season, especially if you happen to beat someone on the road, but it's still worth checking in on and discussing.

One thing is for sure though, we could really use a win over Arizona or things are going to start getting tight.


I think enough games have been played that Kenpom is giving you a decent sense of how well some teams are playing thus far.
txagssweetie2014
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The committee took a step away from the RPI last year which is good as Rpi isn't very accurate even after 30 games have been played. It's certainly inaccurate after 8-10 games have been played.
bobinator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It does, that's why I said it's worth discussing, but we're still talking about relatively small sample sizes and very unbalanced schedules.
bobinator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
We talked about this in another thread, but your actual RPI isn't that important, it's just a framework for how they talk about teams.

Like the committee members don't say "Well X has an RPI of 7 vs Y who has an RPI of 11," but they do use it like "X is 4-1 vs the RPI top 25"
Method Man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Our rpi vs top 25 or 50 may be rough. Top 100 may be better
miller0926
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Part of the reason Florida's RPI is so high is because they have yet to play a home game. At first I thought it was a genius OOC scheduling tactic, but after google searching I realized it's because their gym is undergoing renovations and won't open until conference play.

They've played all their creampuffs all throughout the state of Florida. While we only get 0.6 wins every time we beat a team like American or Denver or Corpus, they get 1.0 wins for each of their games against like Mercer, Belmont and St. Bonaventure
Pumpkinhead
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
miller0926 said:

Part of the reason Florida's RPI is so high is because they have yet to play a home game. At first I thought it was a genius OOC scheduling tactic, but after google searching I realized it's because their gym is undergoing renovations and won't open until conference play.

They've played all their creampuffs all throughout the state of Florida. While we only get 0.6 wins every time we beat a team like American or Denver or Corpus, they get 1.0 wins for each of their games against like Mercer, Belmont and St. Bonaventure


Fascinating. We should ask season ticket holders if they would be okay if we stop playing any non-con home games in the future whatsoever to help our RPI.

There would just be the 9 home games per season during conference play.
bobinator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Or we schedule them all at a neutral site. Like Consol. Still get the RPI points and a smaller venue would probably really help the atmosphere of those games.
mhayden
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Pumpkinhead said:

miller0926 said:

Part of the reason Florida's RPI is so high is because they have yet to play a home game. At first I thought it was a genius OOC scheduling tactic, but after google searching I realized it's because their gym is undergoing renovations and won't open until conference play.

They've played all their creampuffs all throughout the state of Florida. While we only get 0.6 wins every time we beat a team like American or Denver or Corpus, they get 1.0 wins for each of their games against like Mercer, Belmont and St. Bonaventure


Fascinating. We should ask season ticket holders if they would be okay if we stop playing any non-con home games in the future whatsoever to help our RPI.

There would just be the 9 home games per season during conference play.

If the TMF was willing to only charge for the 9 home games, I'm sure most would be fine with that.
Belton Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
bobinator said:

Or we schedule them all at a neutral site. Like Consol. Still get the RPI points and a smaller venue would probably really help the atmosphere of those games.
I'm relatively certain there would be more Aggies in attendance at neutral games in Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio than there are at Reed Arena during non conference.
bobinator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I'm not at all certain of that.
Method Man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The blue hairs like XL, Hop and old yeller aren't going to drive to Dallas or Houston but will go to every home game. They're our most loyal fans.
miller0926
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Belton Ag said:

bobinator said:

Or we schedule them all at a neutral site. Like Consol. Still get the RPI points and a smaller venue would probably really help the atmosphere of those games.
I'm relatively certain there would be more Aggies in attendance at neutral games in Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio than there are at Reed Arena during non conference.
Ya I live in NW Houston and have season tickets and haven't missed a home game yet this season. I know there's very, very few like me out there, but I obviously wouldn't be able to make the games in San Antonio and Dallas. There wouldn't be any students there either.
PlanoAg98
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
So if we are #30, wouldn't that mean we are in the Dance since that's 64 teams?
Pumpkinhead
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
PlanoAg98 said:

So if we are #30, wouldn't that mean we are in the Dance since that's 64 teams?


There are conference Auto bids and so forth so things don't quite work like that.

That said, Kenpom makes it easy to go back the past 14 years and see what NCAA seed that each team got (is little number next to team name).

http://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2006


You can see that no team in the past decade that finished ranked top-20 in Kenpom did not receive at least an at large bid unless there was some unusual situation like the team was ineligible for post-season (for example Louisville and SMU last season).

There has been on average about 1 team finished ranked in top-30 that did not get an NCAA bid (I.e. On average 29 out of 30 teams ranked top-30 in Kenpom at end of season played in NCAA tournament.)

So, I think it is reasonable to say that if P5 team X plays efficiently enough through season to finish Top-30 in Kenpom, probably like 95% chance that team won enough games to get an NCAA tourney bid. So thus far A&M's efficiency numbers are holding up well enough to project an NCAA tourney team but lot of basketball still left to play.
miller0926
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
And today we add South Carolina St. and their 0-6 record to our RPI so expect a fall.

Also, we should be hoping Zona beats Mizzou in this game on ESPN2 right? Need them to be as quality of an OOC team as possible..
jml2621
How long do you want to ignore this user?
lol @ RPI


Interesting tidbit. Western Michigan = #4 on football RPI


On kenpom, A&M is #5 defending the 2 point shot and #30 in 2FG%. #8 in blocked shots. After a few games in strategic wilderness, BK is finally realizing that Davis, Williams and a bigger lineup = #winning. We're passing into the bigs more. Does he have the discipline to use the #sizematters lineup now that they've practiced?

Gilder and Hogg allow us to have an inside out game. Hogg will break his slump, and Gilder's Effective FG% = 54.4%.


We can beat Zona. Mizzou = turrible and making it reasonably close.
jml2621
How long do you want to ignore this user?

You'd think that would a CLUE for a coach...


#30 Texas A&M (good but flawed team, will lose some games they shouldn't due to backcourt play, will win some games they shouldn't due to posing some unique matchup problems with their size and length, probably just making NCAA is reasonable goal for this bunch, but if all the core underclassman then come back plus adding a freed Caldwell and some other 2017 young perimeter studs...could be a team in 2017-2018 that takes A&M like Star Trek's Enterprise into the great unknown...at least the Elite Eight of the NCAA tournament).
jml2621
How long do you want to ignore this user?
...and a 19-0 run puts the Tiggers to sleep. Good night, Pooh Bear.
Refresh
Page 1 of 1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.